Summary: After a wet and at times weird Thursday, the weather will calm down for the weekend. Our next storm aims for us on Monday, with another chance of showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side at night, with mild to warm daytimes.

Quick editor’s note. Look for the second in our Q&A post series later this morning with answers to some of your questions!

Recap of yesterday

Rain totals yesterday were pretty healthy across most of the region. Between the early day rain in Houston and points south and later day rounds of thunderstorms north of Houston, virtually the entire area picked up a needed 1 to 3 inches of rain, with pockets of higher amounts.

Additionally, we had another couple rounds of hail reports with the evening storms, which felt like they came out of nowhere. If you squinted enough at early day model data, you could see some signals, but in real time, it was a bit difficult to pick out that there would be two additional rounds of storms north of Houston between the AM rain and overnight storms.

Anyway, we did have some pretty nasty hail north of Houston, with mostly quarter to half-dollar size hail reports from Copperfield through Jersey Village to near Acres Home and the Northside.

We had some additional hail reported north of there after 9 PM, though reports seemed a bit sparser. Then we had one final round of storms around or after Midnight. Those had strong winds and maybe some brief small hail. And absolutely torrential rain. And a gorgeous lightning display as they moved away.

It was a day.

Today and Saturday

We need a little time to dry out now, and we’ll get it today and tomorrow. Clouds should be on the gradual decrease today, leading to a nice afternoon. A couple showers may graze areas northeast of Houston late today as the system responsible for yesterday’s storms exits to the east. Highs will be in the 70s.

Look for sunshine tomorrow with highs well into the 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Splendid weather for the Bayou City Art Festival downtown or Saturday evening’s Houston Dash match with Racing Louisville, among many other activities this weekend. Yesterday’s rain did a number on pollen, but we may see it bounce back this weekend, so just be advised if you’re an allergy sufferer!

Sunday

We’ll transition to a slightly more humid setup as Sunday progresses. Morning lows in the 50s or low-60s would be followed by more clouds than sun at times, with highs in the mid-70s. Onshore winds will nudge up as the day wears on, so you’ll probably notice that also. I wouldn’t entirely rule out an isolated shower late in the day, but the vast majority of us should stay dry.

Monday

Our next system will join us for a limited engagement on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely before a cold front approaches in the evening hours. I don’t want to overstep my bounds of confidence right now, especially given how yesterday evening unfolded. But this storm looks a little less potent than yesterday’s. Still, showers and storms will be possible as early as Monday morning, ending sometime in the evening (though it shouldn’t rain in that entire window we don’t think).

Most areas should see about a quarter to half-inch or so of rain, but I would say this is a bit of a fluid forecast. Check back in either this weekend or Monday to see if anything has changed.

Rest of next week

Much drier air builds in behind Monday night’s front. Dry air in late March allows us to cool off quickly in the evening and warm up quickly in the daytime. Look for highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, if not a night in the 40s too. But we could easily see a 20 to 25 degree range in temperatures each day. Break out the quarter zips and shorts!

Summary: If you live in central or northern Houston, there is a healthy chance of storms tonight after midnight.

Good afternoon, everyone. Just a brief update to say that, as expected, widespread showers and thunderstorms that developed this morning are now winding down. The heaviest rains did, indeed, fall closer to the coast with some locations near Alvin and Santa Fe picking up about 5 inches of rain. These areas are now probably done for today and tonight.

Instead the focus shifts up north, where a line of storms is expected to propagate from west to east, generally along and north of Interstate 10. In terms of timing, this line will probably reach the Bryan-College Station area around midnight or shortly before, push through Montgomery County an hour or two later, and reach Beaumont-Port Arthur by around 3 am give or take.

For the most part these probably will be thunderstorms—hence the invocation of our excitable dogs scale. On a scale of 1 to 10, we’re probably looking at about a 7 tonight in terms of dogs barking and carrying on. There is a risk for some more severe weather, in terms of hail and possibly damaging winds, but the overall atmosphere is not ideal for this to occur in the Houston metro area. For those who live east of Houston, particularly the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, I do think there is a higher chance of severe thunderstorms with this system’s passage.

Our weather quiets down on Friday morning with a weak front and some drier air. Matt will have full details for you in the morning.

Summary: Houston faces a day of unsettled weather, with the threat of heavy rain and hail, before a largely unbroken string of partly to mostly sunny, spring-like days with highs in the 70s. Saturday looks especially nice for outdoor activities.

Thursday

We’re seeing scattered thunderstorms just before sunrise in Houston this morning, and coverage should fill in throughout the morning in response to deepening moisture in the atmosphere. I’d anticipate the strongest storms developing between now and about 2 pm, with the greatest threat along and south of Interstate 10. The primary concerns are heavy rainfall and, within stronger thunderstorms, some hail and potentially damaging winds.

Conditions should clear out some later this afternoon and during the early evening hours. However, a second round of storms will possible around around midnight or shortly after, ahead of a weak front. In contrast to this morning, this line of storms looks fiercest to the north of Interstate 10, and may not bring any additional rain to coastal areas. All told I expect a wide variance in rain accumulations, with most of the area picking up between 1 and 3 inches today. This should not be enough to cause significant flooding, but it may briefly back up some streets.

In terms of temperatures, look for highs today in the upper 60s, with cloudy skies when it is not raining. Winds will, generally, be from the east with strong gusts possible during thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s in Houston.

Friday

In the wake of Thursday’s storms the weather on Friday will be calmer. Look for highs in the mid-70s with partly sunny skies. Winds will be from the northwest at perhaps 15 mph, with higher gusts. This drier air will allow lows on Friday night to drop into the mid-50s for most locations, with slightly warmer conditions near the coast.

Saturday

A lovely day! Look for highs in the upper 70s, sunny skies, and light northerly winds. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 50s in Houston, and lower 60s closer to the coast.

Sunday

As the onshore flow returns with avengeance, we’re going to see some cloud cover building. This should help to limit highs in the mid-70s for most. Another difference from Saturday will be the wind, from the south. Expect sustained winds at 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Next week

Another front, with the possibility of some additional rain and storms, will move into Houston on Monday. At this point the storms don’t look nearly as widespread or strong as what’s happening today, but the forecast could change a bit. This front should set the stage for some lovely spring-like weather next week, with highs generally in the upper 70s, lows in the 50s and 60s, sunny skies and reasonably dry air. Pretty, pretty good.

Summary: After mild conditions today we’re looking ahead to the possibility of widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms on Thursday. Following that, the weekend looks exceptional, especially Saturday. Also, in today’s post, we note that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be a busy one.

Looking ahead to hurricane season

Before jumping into the forecast for this week, I want to look ahead to the coming Atlantic hurricane season. It formally begins in a little more than two months, on June 1. For the full rundown, I want to point you to our companion site, The Eyewall, where Matt has gone in depth. But the long and short of it is this: It’s becoming increasingly difficult to objectively look at things without concluding that the upcoming hurricane season could be a very active one. Here are some key takeaway messages:

• El Niño continues to slowly erode away in the Equatorial Pacific.
• La Niña development continues to look plausible, if not likely by August or September, a feather in the cap of an active hurricane season forecast.
• Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures remain excessively warm virtually everywhere that matters.
• We are likely to see some very active hurricane season forecasts get released in the coming weeks.

By no means does an active, or even a hyper-active, Atlantic hurricane season mean that the upper Texas coast will be impacted this summer. It just raises the likelihood of this occurring. We’ll have more information for you on preparedness measures to take in the coming weeks.

Wednesday

It’s a mild morning, with temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-50s. We’ll see a bit of sunshine, but for the most part skies this afternoon will be mostly cloudy, and this will help to limit highs to around 70 degrees. Although we’re now under the influence of a southerly flow, we’ll still see some fairly dry air in place today, so humidity will be fairly low. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Some very light, very scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening, but for the most part I expect these to hold off until Thursday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s.

Thursday

Here comes the rain. With the approach of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll see an increasing amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Some time on Thursday morning, probably (but not certainly) before sunrise, we’ll start to see development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. These will likely become more widespread after sunrise and through the morning hours. We may see a bit of a reprieve during the late afternoon and early evening hours, but a final round of storms could push through late Thursday evening or during the overnight hours. The primary threats from this system are heavy rainfall, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible, and hail.

Highs on Thursday will reach about 70 degrees, with easterly winds. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday

We’ll see a northwesterly flow on Friday in the wake of Thursday’s storms, and this should allow for clearing skies. With more sunshine, expect highs to push into the mid- to upper-70s. As a bit of drier air moves in, look for lows on Friday night to drop into the 50s, and possibly the low 50s for areas further inland.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine for outdoor activities—especially Saturday. We’ll see plenty of sunshine, light winds, and dry air. Look for highs in the upper 70s. Really, could you ask for more? Sunday will still see a bit of sunshine, but we’re going to see the onshore flow returning, and I expect we’ll see some gusty southerly winds at 20 or 25 mph and increasing cloud cover. Highs will again be in the upper 70s, probably.

Next week

We’ll see some rain chances on Monday, and possibly another chance at storms, with the passage of a cold front. This will set the stage for a pleasant week with highs in the 70s and low in the 50s. Seriously, this is peak spring in Houston, and I am here for it.