Summary: The hard freezes are over, and Houston will have a pleasant, mild, and partly sunny day today. But after that? We’re going to cool back down again for the weekend, and then next week we’ll see widespread rain showers with the threat of heavy rainfall.

Recapping this week’s cold weather

Very hard freezes are supposed to be rather uncommon in Southeast Texas, but our region has now experienced three during the last four winters, in February 2021, December 2022, and January 2024. The worst of these was in 2021, when the cold was its sharpest, and most prolonged, with a winter storm on top of it. But the other two cold snaps, including this week, were significant. Here, via Harris County Flood Control District’s Jeff Linder, is a comparison of the coldest temperatures during each freeze:

Thursday

The combination of light winds and temperatures matching dewpoints has led to foggy conditions across much of the metro area this morning. This should dissipate by around 9 am, but until then please exercise some caution on roadways. Some very light drizzle is also possible this morning.

Winds will increase later this morning, and this southerly flow will help push temperatures into the upper 60s. Skies should be partly sunny, making for a rather nice afternoon. However a fairly robust cold front will sweep into Houston tonight, likely after midnight, to bring a new round of chilly air. Lows drop to around 40 degrees by Friday morning.

Friday

This will be a sunny, breezy, and cool day. Look for highs to reach the lower 50s. Winds will peak during the morning hours, with gusts up to about 30 mph possible as the front blows in. These should subside somewhat during the afternoon, with mostly sunny skies. We’ll see ideal conditions for cooling overnight, and much of the metro area could see a light freeze.

Saturday

This will be a chilly day, with highs in the 40s and partly sunny skies. Lows on Saturday night will probably be a touch warmer than Friday night, but a light freeze will again be possible in parts of the area.

Sunday

Clouds return by Sunday, and they’re going to stay awhile. This will be another chilly day, although highs should get into the low 50s. Some light rain showers will be possible later in the day, but for now I think they’ll hold off until overnight when temperatures drop into the 40s.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm and wet, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, and nights perhaps in the upper 50s. As a series of disturbances cross Texas and meet with a favorably moist atmosphere, we’re going to see a fair amount of rainfall. I still don’t feel overly confident in totals, but I think much of the area probably will see on the order of 2 to 8 inches through Friday. Whether all of this comes in bunches, and we have to worry about flooding, is another matter. In any case, prepare for a significant pattern change that will bring a new round of concerns beginning next Monday or so.

Summary: After a very cold night, Houston will emerge from the icebox over the next couple of days. Another front arrives Thursday night to cool us down for the weekend, when a light freeze will be possible. And after that? It will be warmer next week, with the likelihood of widespread showers. It’s too early to be too concerned about heavy rainfall, but something wet this way comes.

Wednesday

It’s really cold this morning. (Fun fact: Tuesday’s average temperature of 26 degrees was 28 degrees below normal. Alright, maybe that fact wasn’t that much fun). Temperatures across the metro area range from the mid-teens up in the middle of Montgomery County down to the upper 20s right on the coast.

Fortunately, this is as cold as it’s going to get. As soon as the Sun comes over the horizon, we’re going to see temperatures start climbing. Most of the region should be above freezing by 10 or 11 am CT this morning, on our way to highs in the mid-40s with sunny skies. As high pressure shifts to the east, we’ll see winds turning from the north to come from the southeast. As a result, lows tonight will only drop to around 40 degrees, with cloudy skies.

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week. Skies will start out cloudy, but we should see lots of sunshine during the afternoon hours. Look for highs to rise into the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be a bit gusty from the south, but it should feel pleasantly warm outside. But don’t get too attached as a front will come through on Thursday night, bringing an additional shot of colder air. The front’s passage should be a dry one, with lows dropping into the 40s overnight.

Friday

It will be sunny and cold on Friday, with highs perhaps only reaching 50 degrees. It’s also going to be rather windy, with gusts up to 30 mph from the north. Friday night should see a light freeze descend upon Houston again, with a hard freeze possible for far inland areas. Still, this night looks nothing like the cold were presently experiencing.

Saturday

Saturday should start out brisk and sunny. Highs are likely to only reach the mid-40s, and we’ll probably see some clouds developing during the afternoon hours. (If you’re wondering about weather in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon for the Texans game, it looks blustery and cold. Game-time temperatures should be in the low 20s, with gusty winds up to 30 mph. The wind chill will be about 10 degrees. No chance of snow, however. In CJ we trust, right?) Back in Houston, temperatures will again flirt with a freeze on Saturday night, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the urban core of Houston stays above freezing.

Sunday

I expect the sunshine to be largely gone on Sunday, with highs perhaps in the low 50s, give or take. Rain is definitely coming, but at this point I expect it to hold off until Sunday evening or the overnight hours.

Next week

It’s a bit too early for confidence in the details, but we’re going to see some distinct changes next week. Instead of very dry air, our atmosphere will turn more humid, indicative of much more moisture. Temperatures are going up, with daytime highs around 70 degrees, and nights likely somewhere in the 50s. And we’re going to see a series of disturbances move in from the west that will increase our rain chances.

Alongside this favorable setup, there is a pretty strong signal for rain showers during the period of Monday through Thursday across the models we look at. As a very preliminary guess, I’d say we’re probably looking at accumulations on the order of 2 to 6 inches. In the winter months rains pile up more quickly, because the evaporation rate is slower. So we’ll be keeping a tab on the potential for street flooding and other impacts. It’s not something to worry overmuch about right now, but if you have outdoor plans next week, well, good luck.

Summary: Houston faces one more very cold night before we break the back of this Arctic outbreak. Then we’ll warm up for a few days before another front arrives with some slightly less cold air to keep us on the chilly side for the weekend.

Much of the region has warmed above freezing temperatures this afternoon—if only just. Temperatures will peak over the next hour or so before they start dropping by around 4 pm CT. After that we’ll fall quickly this evening as the Sun sets and we see ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Much of the region is likely to be in hard freeze territory, which is to say temperatures below 25 degrees, by midnight. And then, we’re not going to drop much further. I think most of Houston will fall to about the same level they reached on Monday night, basically 17 to 23 degrees across most of our region. The immediate coast, including Galveston, will likely see another light freeze tonight.

The good news—and there is some—is that with light winds we’re not going to see quite the same chill tonight. But it will still be very cold by Houston standards. We’ll also warm up much more quickly on Wednesday than today, with the region rising above freezing by 10 am or so in the morning as the Sun comes up. Highs tomorrow are likely going toward the mid- to upper-40s. So not warm, but warm enough after what we’ve experienced.

Overnight lows on Thursday night look fine, in the 40s.

The vast majority of our area roads are looking good, so there are few concerns there. The electricity grid is in good shape as well. So let’s get through this night and then take a breath before the next front on Thursday night. That will probably bring a light freeze back to Houston by Saturday morning.

With this Arctic air heading to the exits after tonight, we’ll resume our once-a-day posting schedule on Wednesday morning. Thank you, as always, for reading and sharing our work.

Summary: We’re now in the worst part of this Arctic freeze, when we need to be cognizant of the very cold temperatures and wind chills, some remaining icy spots on roadways around Houston, and the Texas electricity grid. Fortunately the end is in sight, even if the next 24 hours look cold.

First, let’s discuss the forecast, then look at roads and the electricity grid.

Tuesday

The temperature at Houston’s official station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, dropped to 19 degrees this morning (After publication, the temperature fell to 18 degrees at 6:50 am). This set a new record low for today. If you’re wondering how this temperature compares to the Valentine’s freeze in 2021, the lowest recorded temperature then was 12 degrees at Bush. (See lows during that freeze for a bunch of Southeast Texas locations here). When you layer on winds of 15 mph and higher gusts on to these temperatures, it feels like single-digit temperatures outside. That’s pretty brutal for Houston.

Winds will remain up this morning, but should subside some this afternoon finally. We’ll also see clearing skies this morning, which should help the temperatures some. Highs today in Houston should climb above freezing for a couple of hours, but their upper limit is likely mid-30s. Areas further inland, such as Katy and The Woodlands, may only briefly touch temperatures above freezing, or may not make it at all.

Low temperatures tonight should be similar to Monday night’s temperatures. The upside is that with significantly reduced winds, it will feel less cold outside.

Wednesday

This will be another sunny day, but some clouds will start to build during the afternoon or evening hours. Temperatures will reach about 50 degrees, with lows only falling into the 40s.

Thursday

This day looks even warmer, if cloudy. Look for highs near 70 degrees. Alas, another cold front arrives later on Thursday to bring another round of rather cold air. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

Winter’s back, baby. Look for highs of around 50 degrees and a cold night. Expect temperatures to drop to around 30 degrees in Houston, so a light freeze is possible for the city. Inland areas may drop into the upper 20s. So maybe just keep your plants covered this week. This surge of colder air won’t be as sharp as the one we’re presently experiencing, but it still will be rather cold by Houston standards. Fortunately there is no precipitation in the forecast during the coldest periods.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend looks cold. Saturday should be mostly sunny with highs in the 40s. A light freeze will be possible for inland areas overnight. Sunday may reach 50 degrees or so with more cloud cover.

After this point we’re going to see a significant pattern change, although the details are still fuzzy. We’ll see warmer weather for awhile, with highs in the 60s or possibly low 70s for most of next week. We’re also going to see the return of some rain showers, possibly a few inches in accumulation starting on Sunday night or Monday. So after the cold, we’re going to get warmer and wet for awhile. I’ve been faithfully placing my orders for days in the 60s and 70s with lots of sunshine this winter, but y’all must be outvoting me.

Roadways

A lot of roads have dried out overnight with the winds. But icy patches remain on elevated freeways and exit ramps and bridges around the region. There are still quite a bit of closures, and travel is inadvisable until later this morning when sunshine and rising temperatures should help to dispatch the ice. You can track icy road locations at Houston Transtar’s website. After today there should be no concerns about winter-related mobility in the Houston area.

Electricity

As of 6:20 am CT, the Texas electricity grid is maintaining between 6,000 and 7,000 MW of excess capacity according to ERCOT. We’re expecting peak demand during the next couple of hours, but given the current capacity it seems that rolling blackouts are unlikely. After this morning, as most of Texas starts to warm up, the grid should have plenty of capacity to cover demand. So, crisis averted.