And so it begins … as of the early afternoon hours we’re beginning to see scattered light to moderate rain showers moving into the southern and southeastern parts of the Houston metro area, primarily along the coast. This marks the beginning of about 72 hours in which we’re going to see the region’s wettest period since early this summer.
Matt covered the broad dynamics of the coming rains in a comprehensive post this morning, and at this point not much has changed. I’ve looked over the 12z model guidance and the range of solutions is still pretty broad—from widespread accumulations of 1-2 inches across much of Houston to upwards of 9 inches for wide swaths of the region.
As of 2:45pm CT on Friday the rains are remaining largely offshore. But that will change. (Intellicast)
We’ll be quiet for most of the morning today, but clouds will gradually thicken up overhead. Rain showers should begin to break out to our south and west by midday, spreading north and east through afternoon.
Short term HRRR model shows numerous showers developing across Texas today. Some will move into Houston later this afternoon and tonight. (Weather Bell)
A patchwork of scattered showers should be strung out around Houston by the evening commute.
This means that the Christmas tree lighting forecast in Downtown Houston isn’t looking fantastic right now. That said, if the HRRR above is right, we may be able to get it in without too many issues. If you are planning to go, make sure to double check the city’s website or social media feeds.
It may be a bit damp at times for the tree lighting tonight in Downtown Houston
Periods of rain and perhaps thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. We may see heavier rain along and north of I-10 toward morning. That may pivot toward Houston more tomorrow. Basically, the whole area will see rain, heavy at times, and thunderstorms at various points through the day Saturday.
A forecast caution here: Yes, it will be a stormy couple of days, but it probably will not rain in your neighborhood the whole time. This type of rain will come in fits and starts. Trying to time exactly when and where we see the heaviest rain is exceptionally difficult more than 12 hours in advance with storm systems like this.
A new month means a new sponsor for Space City Weather, and I’m pleased to announce that Harmony Strings will support the site in December.
(Harmony Strings)
Thanks to their generous support we can provide all of our weather content for free, and with minimal advertisement, for the entire month of December. Here’s a little bit more about their business:
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The advantage of the sponsorship model is that we are under no pressure to generate web traffic for the sake of web traffic—so there’s no hype, no click bait and no nonsense. All we’ll do is continue to make the best possible forecasts we can make.
Good morning. It’s chilly out this morning, and very dry. How dry? Atmospheric moisture levels (shown below) are barely 10 percent of normal levels. Enjoy the calmer weather because big changes are coming for this weekend.
Today
Expect a cool and sunny day, with light northerly winds. Highs in the upper 60s and lows Thursday night should see temperatures three to five degrees warmer than Wednesday night.
Precipitable water levels are only about 10 to 30 percent of normal levels on this dry Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)
Friday
Friday will bring about a change as winds shift to out of the east, and they’ll become gusty as moisture moves inland. At the same time a large upper-level low pressure system will approach Texas from the west, and these ingredients will set the stage for a wet—and potentially very wet—weekend. Friday itself should be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-60s, and a chance of light to moderate rain during the afternoon and evening hours.
(Space City Weather is brought to you by Harmony Strings this month)
