The return of warmer air from the south, and mostly sunny skies today, should lead to quite warm temperatures. In fact, there’s at least a slight chance that Bush Intercontinental Airport will record a high of 90 degrees today—and that would be early, but not unprecedented. Houston’s earliest high temperature in a calendar year has come on Feb. 20 (1996), but a more normal time of year is the end of April, or early May. In this case, the heat won’t last long before we return to spring-like weather.

Today

Sunny conditions today, and very warm, before a mild night tonight in the mid-60s.

Wednesday

A cold front will move through Houston early on Wednesday, likely just before, or around sunrise. Despite the moisture return on Tuesday, there probably won’t be more than enough water in the atmosphere to squeeze out a few light, scattered showers. Certainly nothing to be concerned about. Skies should clear out after the front’s passage, and the bigger issue later on Wednesday will be winds, gusting out of the north-northwest at about 20 to 25 mph for most of the day. Winds will die down around sunset, and overnight temperatures will cool down into the low- to mid-50s for most of Houston except for the coast.

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Thursday and Friday

We’re looking at two gorgeous days across the Houston region, with highs generally in the mid- to upper 70s, and lows in the mid- to upper-50s. Ample sunshine. Hard—very hard—to beat the weather to end this week. Summer may be coming to Houston, but for now enjoy spring!

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

We’ll remain mostly sunny this weekend, with highs of around 80 degrees. Lows are going to creep back up, however, with the return of moisture from the Gulf and rising humidity levels. By Sunday night into Monday morning, I think we’ll again see lows only touching about 70 degrees.

The forecast is cloudy for next week—probably the oldest meteorology joke right there, folks—as the potential returns for rain next week. But it’s not clear how much rain comes in. The European model is pretty aggressive, bringing 1-3 inches of rain during the first part of next week, while other models are less wet. Not something to be too concerned about at this time.

Posted at 6:50am CT on Tuesday by Eric

Good morning everyone. After a fairly stormy period for the region (not counting Sunday, which yes, was a lousy forecast for much of the area), the Houston region will enjoy some really nice April weather later this week after a front that “sticks.”

Today

The large storm system that raked east Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday has moved on to Alabama, Mississippi, and the toe of the Louisiana boot. In its wake Houston will see clear skies today, and the short-lived effects of Sunday’s cool front (this morning, basically) will give way to a warm day in the mid-80s. Lows tonight will only fall into the low- to mid-60s.

Tuesday

Another warm day that may test some high temperature records across the region. I’m looking for highs in the mid- to upper-80s with lots of sunshine for Houston. Look for some gusty southerly winds during the daytime as the onshore flow really gets moving.

Wednesday

A cold front appears set to push into Houston late Tuesday night or early Wednesday—and right now I’d peg the timing at around sunrise Wednesday. Although there will be a bit of moisture to work with, the frontal passage will probably be dry for most people.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.

See full post

On Saturday evening Matt and I exchanged several e-mails discussing the possibility of storms today. We were concerned about the ongoing forecast, given that a number of forecast models weren’t showing much support for widespread severe weather in Houston on Sunday. This was largely due to the potential for the atmosphere over Houston to remain capped, which seemed like a distinct possibility based upon some of the available data. At the same time, other variables indicated the likelihood of an active weather day, and the National Weather Service and NOAA were continuing to forecast Houston under a “moderate” risk for severe weather, including the potential for tornadoes. So we were left with a dilemma—should we be an outlier and call attention to the possibility of a bust?

We decided not to, both because we still thought there was a decent threat of severe weather, and we didn’t want to offer a conflicting message to that from the official forecast warning offices, whose work we respect and trust.

Understandably, if you live in Harris County or closer to the coast, you’re probably wondering where the tornadoes are, not to mention the rain. Probably half of the region didn’t see more than a sprinkle on Sunday. Some people canceled plans for today, based upon forecasts for severe weather. That is how it goes sometimes, and we are the first to acknowledge that we will make mistakes, as we did Friday, Saturday and Sunday with regard to storms in Houston today. What we want readers to understand is that our mistake was made out of imperfect information, rather than a desire to cause unnecessary alarm. (It is also worth noting that some very severe weather developed north, and northeast of Houston today, it just happened to be about 100 miles, or more, away from central Houston).

Why should you believe us? Our web site has no advertising. We have a sponsor, and we have sold out sponsorships for the rest of the year. There is literally no incentive for us to push the threat of severe weather for clicks, page views, or ratings. We have support for the site regardless. If our credibility is our most valuable asset—and we believe it is—then we actually have a strong disincentive to hype weather.

In any case, we’ll continue to do the best we can for you. Happily, after some lingering showers clear the area this afternoon, Houston is going to have some pretty darn nice weather this week. We’ll have full details on that in the morning.

Posted at 2:50pm CT on Sunday by Eric

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.

Northern parts of the Houston region experienced some pretty gnarly weather this morning, with damaging winds, reports of dime- and quarter-sized hail near Conroe, and rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour. The radar also indicated the formation of some tornadoes, but they were not confirmed by ground observations. However those storms, associated with a warm front, have now moved out of the greater Houston region. Conditions should be mostly calm area wide for the next couple of hours.

With that said, a large squall line of storms now east of Interstate 35 will move toward Houston this afternoon, likely reaching the region during the 1pm to 4pm CT time frame. Because of the moist, unstable air mass, the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch from 1pm to 6pm for the entire metro area along, and north of Interstate 10.

Why are we not as concerned about the southern half of Houston? Based upon the movement of storms in central Texas, it appears that most of the severe weather will occur over the northern half of the metro area. It is not entirely clear to me how much rain will fall south of Interstate 10, or whether it will just be mostly windy with dark clouds.

In summary

Matt has put together the following graphic to help understand the various elements we’re watching this morning, and into the afternoon hours (click to enlarge).

The bottom line is this: We’re most concerned about the threat of tornadoes north of Houston, but we can’t rule them out in Harris County. The heaviest rain this afternoon is also likely to occur north if I-10, but we can’t be sure how the storms will evolve as the move east from central Texas into the Houston region—will they strengthen, or weaken; and will they redevelop closer the coast?

Posted at 11am CT on Sunday by Eric

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)