On Saturday evening Matt and I exchanged several e-mails discussing the possibility of storms today. We were concerned about the ongoing forecast, given that a number of forecast models weren’t showing much support for widespread severe weather in Houston on Sunday. This was largely due to the potential for the atmosphere over Houston to remain capped, which seemed like a distinct possibility based upon some of the available data. At the same time, other variables indicated the likelihood of an active weather day, and the National Weather Service and NOAA were continuing to forecast Houston under a “moderate” risk for severe weather, including the potential for tornadoes. So we were left with a dilemma—should we be an outlier and call attention to the possibility of a bust?

We decided not to, both because we still thought there was a decent threat of severe weather, and we didn’t want to offer a conflicting message to that from the official forecast warning offices, whose work we respect and trust.

Understandably, if you live in Harris County or closer to the coast, you’re probably wondering where the tornadoes are, not to mention the rain. Probably half of the region didn’t see more than a sprinkle on Sunday. Some people canceled plans for today, based upon forecasts for severe weather. That is how it goes sometimes, and we are the first to acknowledge that we will make mistakes, as we did Friday, Saturday and Sunday with regard to storms in Houston today. What we want readers to understand is that our mistake was made out of imperfect information, rather than a desire to cause unnecessary alarm. (It is also worth noting that some very severe weather developed north, and northeast of Houston today, it just happened to be about 100 miles, or more, away from central Houston).

Why should you believe us? Our web site has no advertising. We have a sponsor, and we have sold out sponsorships for the rest of the year. There is literally no incentive for us to push the threat of severe weather for clicks, page views, or ratings. We have support for the site regardless. If our credibility is our most valuable asset—and we believe it is—then we actually have a strong disincentive to hype weather.

In any case, we’ll continue to do the best we can for you. Happily, after some lingering showers clear the area this afternoon, Houston is going to have some pretty darn nice weather this week. We’ll have full details on that in the morning.

Posted at 2:50pm CT on Sunday by Eric

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.

Northern parts of the Houston region experienced some pretty gnarly weather this morning, with damaging winds, reports of dime- and quarter-sized hail near Conroe, and rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour. The radar also indicated the formation of some tornadoes, but they were not confirmed by ground observations. However those storms, associated with a warm front, have now moved out of the greater Houston region. Conditions should be mostly calm area wide for the next couple of hours.

With that said, a large squall line of storms now east of Interstate 35 will move toward Houston this afternoon, likely reaching the region during the 1pm to 4pm CT time frame. Because of the moist, unstable air mass, the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch from 1pm to 6pm for the entire metro area along, and north of Interstate 10.

Why are we not as concerned about the southern half of Houston? Based upon the movement of storms in central Texas, it appears that most of the severe weather will occur over the northern half of the metro area. It is not entirely clear to me how much rain will fall south of Interstate 10, or whether it will just be mostly windy with dark clouds.

In summary

Matt has put together the following graphic to help understand the various elements we’re watching this morning, and into the afternoon hours (click to enlarge).

The bottom line is this: We’re most concerned about the threat of tornadoes north of Houston, but we can’t rule them out in Harris County. The heaviest rain this afternoon is also likely to occur north if I-10, but we can’t be sure how the storms will evolve as the move east from central Texas into the Houston region—will they strengthen, or weaken; and will they redevelop closer the coast?

Posted at 11am CT on Sunday by Eric

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

Good morning. It’s going to be a stormy day for parts of the metro region, so let’s get right to it.

This morning

A number of showers and thunderstorms have developed along a warm front that’s moved in from the coast, and this will serve as a focus of showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours for the Houston area. These storms are developing primarily to the north of Interstate 10 (along the warm front) and bringing some heavy rainfall and severe weather to Waller and Montgomery counties, and points north.

The biggest concern is instability and rotation in the atmosphere, which is favorable for the development of tornadoes. Several tornado warnings have already been issued this morning—and a tornado watch is in effect through 1pm for the northern half of the Houston metro area, as well as much of central Texas.

It is possible that most areas south of, and along Interstate 10 don’t see much rainfall this morning.

This afternoon

Meanwhile, a large cluster of storms has developed across west Texas and is now (6:55am CT) moving eastward toward Interstate 35. These storms have formed along a cold front, and this mess will move into the Houston area this afternoon. Again, it seems likely the dynamics for severe weather and heavy rains will be most favorable north of Interstate 10 later today, but we’re going to have to watch the evolution of the system closely.

We’ll update again later this morning.

Posted at 7:05am CT on Sunday by Eric

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)