In brief: Houston really needs some rain, and in the next several days it is finally going to fall over the region. This post explains when, and how much. Beyond that, Houston’s humidity levels will remain elevated for several days, leading to sticky conditions. We still expect a nice fall front during the second half of next week.
Rainfall needed
Nearly all of the Houston region has fallen into a moderate drought in recent weeks, and we’re starting to see a severe drought for some locations to the northwest of the metro area. These conditions have been created by an exceptionally dry September and October, and much of our region has received no rain in more than five weeks, and very little in the last eight weeks. This dry weather has coincided with a period of mostly hot and sunny days, leading to very dry soils.

We have needed rainfall and finally, over the next several days, we are going to get some rain as a weak front sags into Houston, stalls, and disturbs the atmosphere. The forecast models have trended a little bit wetter over the last day, so we now expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 2 inches of precipitation through the weekend. This won’t completely end our drought, but a little November rain goes a long way with shorter days and cooler weather on the horizon.
Tuesday
Rain is unlikely today, but conditions will help set up a wetter second half of the week. We’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Southeasterly winds will blow at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, and this will herald increasing atmospheric moisture levels. A few coastal showers will be possible later today or tonight, but overall rain chances remain low. Temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid-70s for most of Houston, with higher humidity levels.

Wednesday and Thursday
These days should bring the most elevated rain chances, with much of Houston seeing a better than 50-50 likelihood of precipitation. Showers on Wednesday are likely to start during the mid- to late morning hours and chances will remain high through most of Thursday. To be clear, these are unlikely to be strong storms that lead to flooding, but should typically be more moderate showers. But we may well see some thunderstorms embedded in the showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s.
If you’re concerned about Halloween weather, most of our available modeling indicates that rain showers should taper off somewhat by Thursday afternoon or evening. We’ll have a better handle on this in tomorrow’s forecast, where there is more high-resolution guidance available. But for now, I’d anticipate cloudy conditions on Thursday evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and plenty of humidity.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Partly sunny skies, trending toward mostly sunny, will prevail through the weekend. Look for high temperatures, generally, in the low- to mid-80s. We’ll definitely see the possibility of showers each day, although chances for most locations will be 50 percent or less. Humidity levels remain high throughout the weekend, so nights will stay sticky.
Next week
This pattern continues into the first half of next week, with highs in the 80s, and at least some low-end rain chances. At some point I expect to see a fairly robust cold front, but whether that’s on Wednesday or Thursday I don’t yet have confidence. However, I have to tell you, if we could get a combination of healthy rain showers this week, and a very much fall-like front next week, I’d be feeling pretty good about our weather here in Houston.