Near freezes? Highs in the 40s? Welcome to winter, Houston.

Good morning. It’s cool across the region this morning, with lows starting at about 50 degrees. But this is only the beginning of winter in Houston…

Today

The radar is clear this morning, but with virtually no wind and the moist ground, expect some low-lying clouds to persist for a few hours. After the fog burns off we’ll see mostly sunny skies today with high temperatures around 70 degrees—a bit warmer closer to the coast and cooler for inland areas. A weak cool front arrives later today, which will allow for temperatures tonight to again fall to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday

The front will keep temperatures moderate on Wednesday, with partly sunny skies and highs near 70 degrees. Rain showers should hold off until Wednesday night, when there may be a broken line of storms along with, or just ahead of a strong cold front moving through the Houston region. I’m not expecting much accumulation.

Thursday

Low temperatures on Thursday morning will be around 50 degrees, and as the front blows in they’re not going to rise during the daytime hours. As the season’s first real blue norther we’re going to see strong, gusty winds out of the north beginning early Thursday, with gusts perhaps exceeding 30 mph along the coast. The winds should continue for most of the daylight hours. Temperatures will probably fall during the afternoon hours, and lows Thursday night will be the coldest of the season.

Will it freeze? I’m still betting that enough clouds linger Friday morning to keep most of the Houston metro area just above freezing. Here’s the latest forecast map from the National Weather Service as to their best guess for a freezing line.

(National Weather Service)
(National Weather Service)

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Goodbye rain—hello Jack Frost

Note: Today’s the last day of our fundraising campaign to support Space City Weather in 2017. You can help by buying a t-shirt, or making a donation. For businesses, we also have a handful of monthly sponsorship opportunities still available for the first half of the year. If you can help, Matt and I really appreciate it! Now, on to the forecast, and our looming encounter with Jack Frost.

Monday

The rain’s almost over, and most of us are probably good and ready for that. As previously noted, on Saturday Galveston set a record for daily rainfall with 7.68 inches, for any winter day, in any winter year, in more than a century of records. Texas City faced significant, widespread flooding. All told, here are the estimated accumulations for rainfall from Friday evening through Sunday for the Houston metro area.

Rain totals from Friday through 5am CT on Monday. (NOAA)
Rain totals from Friday through 5am CT on Monday. (NOAA)

 

As expected one final round of showers is moving through the metro area this morning, but the rainfall rates are low enough with the fast-moving storms for them to just be nuisance showers rather than threatening any kind of significant flooding in the Houston metro area. Expect the flash flood watch for Harris and the coastal counties to expire at noon CT today. As the upper-level low pressure system moves out of the Houston area today expect the rain showers to end as well, drying out from the southwest to the northeast. For today, the severe weather chances have moved off to the east, to the Gulf regions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

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Rains ending for Sunday, but moderate rains return Monday before this mess clears

After steady, light to moderate rain this morning and early afternoon across Houston, showers have ebbed across the region as we go toward evening. Fortunately today only brought an additional 0.5 to 2 inches for pretty much everyone, which was manageable even for the coastal areas hard hit on Saturday.

It seems likely we’ll remain mostly dry this evening, but there’s one more round of rainfall coming as low pressure lingers along the coast on Monday. Fortunately this event doesn’t look particularly extreme for Houston, with 1 to 2 inches of rain, maximum, likely falling between late Sunday night and late morning or early afternoon on Monday. So while your commute into the office may be soggy on Monday morning, I wouldn’t look for any significant flooding problems.

NOAA rainfall accumulation for the period from Sunday evening through Monday evening. (Weather Bell)
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Sunday evening through Monday evening. (Weather Bell)

 

After the rains end Monday, look for a cool night down around 50 degrees, and then quite a pleasant day on Tuesday, with highs in the low 70s. Our next cold front remains on track for late Wednesday or so, and it will be a really strong one. I’ll have full details in Monday morning’s update.

Posted at 4:45pm CT on Sunday by Eric

More rain on the way for flooded coastal regions of Houston

Good morning. The greater Houston region experienced very heavy rains on Saturday, particularly along the coast. With 7.68 inches, officially, Galveston recorded its single wettest day during any winter month, on record. Just inland in Texas City conditions were more grave still, with as many as 11 inches of rain falling. Parts of Galveston Island, Tiki Island, and La Marque all experienced significant flooding, and a Red Cross shelter was established in League City at Bay Harbour UMC, 3459 Deke Slayton Highway, for affected residents.

After a relatively quiet Saturday night, storms began moving into the Houston region a couple of hours before sunrise on Sunday, setting the stage for another wet morning. Due to lower pressures offshore, moist Gulf air will continue to flow inland at the surface, and at the same time in the higher levels of the atmosphere there is a pronounced flow of moist air from the west. The net effect of this is a water vapor “highway” flowing into Texas from the southwest, up through the eastern half of Texas and along the coast.

Behold, the water vapor highway in this enhanced satellite infrared imagery. (NOAA)
Behold, the water vapor highway in this enhanced satellite infrared imagery. (NOAA)

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