A quiet morning, but storms may lurk the next three days

Good morning. A day after historic flooding in Houston the radar is quiet. We also got good news last night when showers over central Texas broke mostly apart before reaching the Houston region. As we clean up today, will Mother Nature continue to cooperate?

TODAY

A flash flood watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning for the entire Houston metro area.

I think things will remain quiet this morning, but we’re still seeing moisture flow in from the Gulf of Mexico, and mechanisms remain to lift that moist air. My guess is that we’ll see development of spotty showers later this morning or early afternoon along the coast, and possibly more organized activity to the east of Houston, which is good because these areas were hit least hard on Sunday night and Monday. Some scattered showers could move inland into central and western Houston later this afternoon.

The big concern will be storms that produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, that would fill bayous back up quickly. However at this time I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of rains today over the western part of Harris County, Montgomery County, Waller County and other areas that were hammered. If that changes I will let you know.

WEDNESDAY

Some forecast models show a more organized system of showers and thunderstorms moving into Houston late Tuesday and on Wednesday morning. (Others do not). What concerns me about the potential for this system is that it could have fairly high precipitable water levels to work with.

Atmospheric moisture levels will be more than 200 percent above normal on Wednesday morning, around sunrise. (Weather Bell)
Atmospheric moisture levels will be more than 200 percent above normal on Wednesday morning, around sunrise. (Weather Bell)

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Storms to our west could move through Houston tonight

It’s been a long day so just a quick post this evening.

We’ve had a nice break from the heavy rain for several hours, and I think that will continue for at least a little while longer. However I’m watching the movement of some storms over central Texas with some concern, as they may move into the Houston metro area tonight. They have become moderately more organized during the last couple of hours.

Storms are moving in from the west. (Intellicast)
Storms are moving in from the west. (Intellicast)

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After the worst floods since Allison what comes next?

This post will summarize the remarkable rain event Houston experienced during the last 24 hours and look ahead at what we can expect during the rest of the work week.

THE FLOODS

It is not an overstatement to say this was the Houston region’s worst flooding event in nearly 15 years, since Tropical Storm Allison deluged the upper Texas coast and dumped in excess of 30 inches of rain over parts of the city.

24-hour rain totals from 1pm Sunday through 1pm Monday. (National Weather Service)
24-hour rain totals from 1pm Sunday through 1pm Monday. (National Weather Service)

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As “extremely dangerous” flooding continues, storms likely to weaken later today

A large area of showers and thunderstorms has continued to move into the Houston metropolitan area this morning, and the entire region is under a flash flood warning through 1 pm CT. This post will discuss the immediate effects of these devastating floods and then discuss how we may see an improvement in conditions later today.

FLOODING

Due to 12 to 18 inches of rain falling overnight across western and northwestern parts of the Houston metro area a number of bayous have exceeded their banks. This has led to dozens of high-water rescues and neighborhood flooding. According to the Harris County Flood Control District the following waterways (13 of 22 watersheds) are currently flooding homes in the county:

  • Cypress Creek
  • Willow Creek
  • Little Cypress Creek
  • White Oak Bayou
  • Greens Bayou
  • Brays Bayou (US 59 to 610)
  • Willow Water hole
  • Keegans Bayou
  • Halls Bayou
  • Horsepen Creek
  • Langham Creek
  • Bear Creek
  • South Mayde Creek

Water has inundated homes in more than 100 neighborhoods, primarily concentrated on the western side of the county. These rains have affected a much larger area than the Memorial Day Floods, which were concentrated in a relatively small, but heavily populated area of southwestern Houston.

We are at the point where another 3 to 6 inches of rain today across the metro Houston area would exacerbate flooding of these waterways, and put much of the rest of the county into a truly catastrophic flooding situation. But will that occur?

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