Good morning. Houston faces the prospect of a wet Friday night before cooler weather prevails this weekend and the first half of next week. And although the modeling remains far from unanimous, the most likely outcome for the Christmas holiday in Houston is mild weather with a fairly decent chance of rainfall.

Thursday

Today will be a fairly mild December day, high temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. We may briefly see some sunshine this afternoon before clouds build again tonight. Winds will blow from the east, with some gusts up to 15 or 20 mph. That will be piling on moisture into the atmosphere that will support rain showers later on Friday. Low temperatures on Thursday night will only drop into the mid-50s for most of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

The day will start cloudy, and we’ll probably see high temperatures push into the upper 60s despite the clouds. Some light rain showers will be possible during the morning hours, but the most likely scenario is that any more organized showers won’t push into the Houston metro area until the late afternoon or evening hours. This system will move from west to east ahead of a surface front. Overall rain accumulations for most areas on Friday night will be quite manageable, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation. However, there is definitely the potential for some heavy rainfall for isolated areas, and this may briefly cause some street flooding.

Saturday

The front should move through by around midnight or shortly after, and it now appears that this should bring a fairly swift end to our rain chances. We can’t rule out of a few lingering showers on Saturday morning, but I expect they’ll be rather scattered. Look for highs of about 60 degrees, clearing skies, and much drier air as winds blow from the north at about 15 mph, and gust to 25 mph or higher during the daytime. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 40s.

Sunday

This should be a sunny day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s and plenty of dry air. Winds remain out of the north, but should be slackening. Lows on Sunday night will be chilly, dropping into the low 40s.

Next week

So what’s on tap for the final week before the Christmas holiday? The first half of the work week should generally be sunny and cool, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Then we’re going to see a moderate warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s. After that the forecast turns fuzzy, but it does seem as though we’re going to see the return of some rain chances by the weekend, quite possibly persisting through Christmas Eve and Day. At some point the next front will come through, but whether this is just before, on, or just after Christmas Day is simply unknowable at this time.

Good morning. The Geminid meteor shower—typically one of the best of the year—peaks tonight into Thursday morning. Unfortunately, we’re going to be mostly clouded in in the greater Houston area. The nearest chance for clear skies liest to the west of areas such as Sealy, or northwest of College Station tonight, and even that appears to be far from a sure thing. There is the possibility for some clearer skies on Thursday evening, although the meteor shower will be less prominent by then. Sorry, stargazers.

Wednesday

We’re seeing some light showers to the southwest of the region this morning, in the Port Lavaca and Victoria area. Some of these rains may work their way into the Houston metro area later this morning for areas to the west of Interstate 45. Any accumulations should be slight. Otherwise it will be, as mentioned above, a mostly cloudy day and night. Highs will reach the mid-60s, with overnight temperatures dropping to around 50 degrees in Houston. Winds will be about 10 mph, out of the east.

Thursday

We’ll probably see a little more sunshine on Thursday, and that should nudge highs into the mid- to upper-60s across the metro area. Winds will also be more prominent out of the east, gusting up to 20 mph, and increasing atmospheric moisture levels ahead of increasing rain chances on Friday. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

Friday will start out cloudy, and I think rain chances are going to hold off until at least noon. However, after that time a broad upper-level storm system will move in, and we’ll see showers and thunderstorms marching into the metro area from the west. This activity will likely peak from late afternoon through early Saturday morning, with showers and some heavier downpours. I don’t think we’re looking at anything too extreme, but most of the area should pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall. Highs on Friday will top out in the mid-60s.

Saturday

Lows on Saturday morning will drop into the 50s, and we could see some additional light showers lingering into the late morning hours. Mostly cloudy skies should limit highs in the upper 50s, and winds will be prominent out of the north at 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. So although the rains should be ending by Saturday afternoon, it’s still going to be breezy and cool. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 40s with mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday

We should see clearing skies on Sunday, with highs of around 60 degrees. A persistent northerly breeze will remain, with gusts continuing at 15 to 20 mph. Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the 40s as winds finally start to slacken some.

Next week and Christmas outlook

The first half of next week should see continued chilly weather, with highs in the 60s and nights generally in the 40s. By Wednesday we should start to warm some, with highs approaching 70 degrees toward next weekend. I’d say the forecast for Christmas Eve the Christmas Day remains rather unsettled. We could see some kind of a front coming through the area next weekend (Christmas is on a Monday) and that may bring some precipitation and colder air for the holiday. Or not. There’s just not enough consistency in the forecast models, or overall pattern, to have any confidence. For now my guess would be highs in the 60s on Christmas Day with at least a decent chance of rain. But there’s a long way to go.

Good morning. Houston’s weather will remain temperate for the remainder of the work week, with high temperatures generally in the 60s. Later this week an upper-level low pressure system will bring a healthy chance of rain into the area, especially on Friday night, before we clear out and cool down later on Saturday. Looking way into the future, I’m still seeing the likelihood of mild weather for Christmas—but at 13 days out take that forecast with a pinch of eggnog.

Tuesday

Today will be sunny, with light easterly winds. Highs will generally push into the upper 60s today, and overnight lows will only drop to around 50 degrees. For December, this is definitely mild weather.

Wednesday and Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels increase a bit, we’ll see at least some partly cloudy skies. This should help to moderate temperatures a bit, holding highs in the mid-60s. We’ll continue to see an easterly flow with winds of about 10 mph and slightly higher gusts. Nights will be mild, in the low 50s generally.

Friday

This should be a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. Rain chances won’t be zero during the daytime, but they should be fairly low before the afternoon hours. Then, especially from Friday evening through Saturday morning, we’ll see widespread showers ahead of, and along with the next front. I don’t think we’re looking at any appreciable flooding, as most areas should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. However, this rain definitely has the potential to put a damper on any holiday activities you have planned from the period of Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Saturday

Temperatures will fall to around 50 degrees on Saturday morning, and will struggle to climb out of the 50s during the afternoon hours as northerly winds blow into the area, bringing cooler and drier air. We may see a bit of sunshine on Saturday afternoon as skies start to clear, and any lingering showers move away. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Sunday

This will be a mostly sunny day with a high temperature of around 60 degrees. Winds out of the north, gusting to perhaps 15 to 20 mph, will keep things feeling on the chilly side. Sunday night looks rather chilly, with lows in Houston dropping to around 40 degrees.

Next week through the Christmas holiday

The early part of next week will remain on the chilly side, with highs generally in the low 60s and lows in the 40s. But we should see a warming trend toward next weekend, with highs perhaps reaching 70 degrees by Friday or so. And after that? As of now there is no appreciable signal for cooler air, so at this point I expect we’ll see a warmer than normal Christmas, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees. We shall see.

Blowing up a tornado

Last weekend saw a tragic outbreak of tornadoes in Tennessee that killed six people and injured more than 80. Some interesting video has emerged of one of these tornadoes striking a power station, and this appears to disrupt the the circulation of the tornado. This has led to some speculation on whether it’s possible the “blow up” a tornado. Over on The Eyewall, Matt dives into this phenomenon.

Good morning. And it’s a chilly one, with temperatures in the 30s across the entire metro area away from the immediate coast. Some locations, such as Conroe and Cleveland, are even experiencing a light freeze. Our weather will now turn warmer, with daily high temperatures that should more or less remain in the 60s for the foreseeable future. Other things covered in today’s post: the potential for rainfall on Friday and Saturday of this week, and our first Christmas Day forecast below.

Monday

For anyone getting going this morning, it’s a cold start. However, at least those winds are light, as as they’re coming from the east we’re going to see a warmer flow today. With sunny skies we can expect high temperatures to climb into the low 60s. Low temperatures tonight will be more moderate, generally dropping into the 40s for Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

With high pressure off to our east, we can expect a generally easterly flow for the middle of this week. What does that mean? Tuesday will start out mostly sunny, but we’ll see increasing cloud cover through Wednesday and Thursday. Highs each day will be in the 60s, although there will be some variation depending on cloud cover during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will generally drop into the low 50s. So all in all, pretty moderate weather for December. One thing to note: If you live on the coast, tides will be higher than normal due to the persistent easterly winds.

Friday and Saturday

We’re going to see a favorable setup for rainfall this weekend as an approaching front combines with a reasonably moist atmosphere. The details are still a bit hazy, but Friday will be mostly cloudy, with a modest chance of showers in the morning, and higher odds during the afternoon and overnight hours. The front itself should move through Friday night, at some point. But it won’t immediately scour all of the moisture out of the atmosphere, so some light, lingering showers will be possible during the day on Saturday. All told I expect the region to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Saturday night. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s, and on Saturday likely in the 50s.

Next week

Sunday, at this point, looks to be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. So that’s probably the best day for outdoor activities this weekend, if you can swing it. I’d expect to see partly sunny skies and highs in the 60s through at least the middle of next week, with low to non-existent rain chances. Nights will be chilly, mostly in the 40s.

Christmas Day forecast

We’re still 14 days out from the Christmas holiday, so a specific weather forecast is necessarily going to be stuffed with caveats like a stocking. It looks like we’ll continue to see fairly chilly nights through the middle of next week. By around Dec. 21, however, we should start to warm up. So what happens after that? Understandably, there is not a strong signal in the models right now, but if anything they’re leaning toward slightly warmer weather through Christmas Day, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. At this point we absolutely cannot rule out significant rainfall, but there’s no real signal for strong showers.