In brief: As a boundary pushes in from East Texas, the potential for storms is a little bit higher today than expected. However, while the line of storms currently on the radar is impressive, it’s not clear whether this system will hold together all the way into Houston.

In this morning’s post I mentioned there was “a bit of intrigue” regarding storm chances on Monday afternoon as a boundary pressed into the area from the east. As of 4 pm CT this boundary is clearly visible on radar, having moved from Louisiana into East Texas, and now slowly creeping toward the Houston metro area.

To be frank, our high-resolution modeling guidance has completely missed the boat on this storm development today, and I don’t have a great answer as to what happens later this afternoon and evening. My best guess is that this boundary will continue to slide west, but as the storms approach and move into the Houston area they will weaken. But given the ample daytime heating over the next couple of hours, it is also possible the storms hold together and some sort of line pushes through between now and 9 pm CT.

With this post I simply wanted to call attention to the possibility that showers and thunderstorms may be a little bit more widespread this evening than previously expected. (We have no flooding concerns, regardless). Or, maybe the storms will fizzle out as they move into a slightly less favorable environment. In any case, expect the unexpected this evening.

In brief: As July begins we take a look back at June’s rain and temperatures, and look ahead to a hot week to start the month. Rain chances will be on the low side this week, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms will nonetheless be possible. Hurricane Beryl should remain in the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, so it’s unlikely to affect our area.

A brief June review

The month of June was wetter and warmer than normal. The city of Houston, officially, recorded 7.8 inches of rainfall, which is nearly 2 inches more than the average monthly rainfall for June. As a result of a wet spring, the entire eastern half of Texas, including all of the Houston metro area, is entirely out of drought conditions. It is a fine posture to be in headed into the hottest months of the year.

In terms of temperature, the city of Houston recorded an average of 84.6 degrees, which is 1.6 degrees above the normal temperature recorded over the last three decades. The average high, of 93.1 degrees, was not far off normal. However, our nighttime temperature averaged 76.1 degrees, which is well above the normal June temperature of 73.7 degrees. This is consistent with a warmer Gulf of Mexico and the background pattern of climate change.

Monday

If you’ve been enjoying our hot and sunny weather, you’re in luck. This pattern should persist for much of this week. In truth, there’s not a whole lot to forecast when high pressure is more or less in control of our weather pattern. High temperatures today will reach the upper 90s, with plenty of sunshine and humidity. Winds will be light, generally from the south, at 5 mph or so.

There is a bit of intrigue when it comes to the possibility of some rain showers late this afternoon as a weak boundary pushes into the area. This may generate some isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of Houston, perhaps near downtown. Overall rain chances today are probably on the order of 10 to 20 percent for most locations. Lows tonight will be warm, perhaps dropping only to about 80 degrees.

Tuesday

A day similar to Monday, with the possible exception of highs being a degree or two cooler. The setup for isolated showers is similar.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The overall pattern remains the same, although with high pressure slightly relinquishing its grip we could see highs only in the mid-90s rather than the upper-90s. Ongoing rain chances are similar in terms of the afternoons and early evenings possibly seeing a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. If you’re wondering about July Fourth fireworks, everything looks fine at this point.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point it appears that high pressure may back off still a bit further this weekend. If so, that may increase daily rain chances a bit, to perhaps 30 percent. It may also bring daytime highs down into the low- to mid-90s range, so more in line with temperatures more typical for early July. We’ll see.

Tropics

We’re continuing to closely watch the evolution of Hurricane Beryl, but at this time there are no indications that it will move into the central Gulf of Mexico and threaten the upper Texas coast. The most likely scenario at this time is, rather, that it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. After that time the odds that it moves north toward Texas are increasingly low. So, for the greater Houston area, nothing much to worry about at this time.

Also of note, Tropical Storm Chris formed last night in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, but it is already moving into Mexico near Tampico, and is not a concern for the United States. (Heavy rainfall, however, is likely in central Mexico). For full coverage of tropical activity, be sure and check out The Eyewall.

In brief: This tropical update has been cross-posted from our companion site The Eyewall. Although we do not yet have major concerns about direct impacts to Texas from Beryl, it is not out of the question that the storm could get into the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. Since we have been receiving a lot of questions about Beryl, here’s what we know right now.

Overview

As of late morning on Sunday, the tropical Atlantic remains very active for the end of June. In addition to Beryl, there are a couple of systems the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential development. We’ll comment on those at the end of this post, but our primary focus today is the rapidly developing Beryl, which as of 10:35 am CT is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane.

Hurricane Beryl this week

Thanks to warm seas, the system has intensified during the last 24 hours from a 50-mph tropical storm into a powerful 130-mph hurricane as it nears the Windward Islands. It should then cross these islands on Monday and move into the Caribbean Sea. The storm will likely remain sufficiently south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to preclude serious damage there, but it could threaten Jamaica on Wednesday and Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula toward the end of the week. After that? Movement into the Gulf of Mexico is possible, but after this point our confidence starts to decrease.

In terms of intensity, additional strengthening of Beryl is likely over the next 24 hours or so as Beryl traverses very warm seas and is encountering relatively little wind shear. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a peak strength of 140 mph sustained winds by Monday morning, when the storm passes near islands including Grenada, Barbados, St. Lucia, and Martinique. These locations should prepare for the most intense wind and surge impacts beginning after midnight tonight, and lasting through at least Monday morning. Localized rain totals of 6 to 12 inches are possible. This is a very serious situation, and residents should prepare accordingly.

As it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday and Tuesday, Beryl should encounter moderately stronger wind shear, and this probably will cause some weakening. But the jury is very much out on how much weakening will occur before Beryl approaches Jamaica on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the system having sustained winds of 120 mph at that time, but this is just a reasonable guess. By Thursday night or Friday, as the center approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, it’s likely that Beryl will weaken a little bit further. It will still likely bring hurricane-force winds to these locations sometime between late Thursday night and Friday night, in addition to heavy rainfall.

Hurricane Beryl this weekend

Our certainty about Beryl’s track begins to fade by the weekend. From now through Friday, a fairly strong high pressure system should continue to push the storm westward. Over the weekend and into early next week, it is possible this ridge continues to steer Beryl westward into the Bay of Campeche. (It is not clear how much interaction with the Yucatan would disrupt Beryl’s circulation, but some weakening is virtually certain). In this scenario, Beryl is likely to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico and plow into the east coast of the Mexican mainland, similar to Tropical Storm Alberto about 10 days ago.

However, there is also the possibility that this ridge weakens, somewhat. At this point, this remains a lesser likelihood when we look at the global models. Still, there is a non-zero chance that Beryl turns northwestward after encountering the Yucatan Peninsula. In such a scenario a tropical system—be it a tropical storm or hurricane—could come to the Texas or even Louisiana coast late next weekend. I understand that everyone would like to have absolute answers about whether this will happen, but we just don’t have that kind of certainty right now.

Bottom line: Direct Texas impacts are within the realm of probability from Beryl, but the odds remain fairly low. We can see this distribution of possibilities when we look at the “super ensemble” track of forecasts for Beryl, which favors the ridge holding strong. We should know more about this part of Beryl’s forecast by Monday or Tuesday, and of course we’ll remain on top of that.

Invest 94L

There is still a short window for this tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico to develop on Sunday before it likely moves inland into Mexico on Monday. The primary threat from Invest 94L is heavy rains in southern Mexico and Central America, which saw similar impacts from Alberto just 10 days ago. Regardless of whether this system develops further or not, the effects will be the same. There will be no impacts for Texas.

Invest 96L

The third area of tropical interest is trailing Hurricane Beryl by a few days as it traverses the open Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next week, and at this point it seems likely to impact the Windwards Islands in a similar location. This could happen as soon as Wednesday, and could deliver an awful second whammy.

However, I have some questions about how much Beryl will perturb the ocean and atmosphere, and this could help to mitigate the strengthening of this tropical disturbance as it nears the Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. We will be keeping a close eye on the system, in any case.

In brief: The main story over the next week will be heat, with high to periodically extreme conditions for the Houston area. Shower and storm chances will diminish but probably never get to zero. Saharan dust should show up this weekend before declining. And the tropics are busy with stuff to watch but no serious concerns for us at this moment.

Today through Sunday

As high pressure begins to expand over Texas, somewhat reminiscent of what happened last summer, the spigot should temporarily shut off here in Houston. We can’t rule out an isolated shower in the area, but the coverage of rain is going to diminish. The main story through the weekend will be heat. Heat advisories are in effect today and will likely be in effect tomorrow as well. Highs will be well into the 90s to near 100 in spots. Morning lows will be around 80 degrees.

Sunday will be interesting as a plume of Saharan dust arrives in Texas. We’ll see hazy skies which won’t help a ton with the temperature, but it may lead to a slight decrease in how bad it feels outside. Here’s the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) outlook for the next week, and you can see the slight dip on Sunday from “extreme” levels to “high” levels.

Remember, WBGT is a good, objective measure of how intense the combination of heat, humidity, wind, sun, and more is on the human body. Extreme levels, which we frequently hit last summer indicate heat where everyone should take precautions, even hardy Houstonians. High levels are more typical in Houston throughout summer. So, just take it easy this weekend.

Next week

The forecast is somewhat on autopilot for most of next week. High pressure should stay in tact, centered to our north or northeast most of the week, keeping us plenty hot, but never sending rain chances to zero. They will be quite low on several days though. Expect highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees with lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees; a very “high summer” feel for early July.

Fourth of July

At this point, it would seem that most plans should be good to go. We can’t rule out a shower, of course, but anything severely disruptive seems unlikely. Just make sure you’re hydrated (with water) and able to cool off. Evening festivities will probably see temperatures drop from the 90s into the upper-80s. Call it about a 10 percent chance of a shower or storm right now, but we encourage you to check back Monday for the latest.

Tropics

We continue to monitor Invest 95L, which is almost certainly going to become a depression or tropical storm by the end of the weekend. We have daily updates at The Eyewall, our companion site, and we will continue to provide those all weekend.

For now, we expect this to be a concern for the Lesser Antilles before it gets disrupted by land or the usual shenanigans present in the eastern Caribbean in early July. From there, all bets are off, but a general west or slightly north of west motion should continue toward Central America or the Yucatan. It is not a serious concern for us in Houston right now, but we’ll be watching it closely to see if anything changes.

The other system moving into the Bay of Campeche this weekend (Invest 94L) will move into Mexico with no impacts for us in Houston or Texas.