After a winter of mild weather comes a potentially severe week

We’ve got lots to discuss about the week of weather ahead, so let’s get right to it this morning.

TODAY

We’ll see mostly cloudy conditions today as the wind ramps up out of the south, gusting as high as 25 mph. Temperatures will climb into the mid-70s. Rain chances will remain fairly low, however, due to a capping inversion. Expect lows tonight in the upper 60s.

TUESDAY

Those southerly winds will continue throughout Monday night and into Tuesday morning, raising moisture levels in the atmosphere. They will also increase tides along the coast by as much as 3 to 4 feet above normal, and the National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory. We should see increasing coverage of light to moderate rain during the afternoon hours on Tuesday, but the bigger threat comes Tuesday night.

NOAA Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night. (NOAA)
NOAA Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. (NOAA)

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Strong upper-level storm system will bring heavy rains this week

Good morning. We interrupt this lovely Sunday morning to bring you an update on the heavy rain chances we’ve been talking about for some time.

We’ll see fine weather today, and although Monday appears likely to be breezy with gusts up to 25 mph and cloudy, I don’t expect too much precipitation to fall. We’re going to have to wait for Tuesday, and more likely Tuesday night, for the action to begin. But first, a quick word about what’s driving this week’s heavy precipitation.

A very strong upper-level trough, an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere, will move into Mexico this week. What’s so striking about this system is that it’s forecast to be as much as six standard deviations below normal, so these are really abnormally low pressures for March. Low pressure in the upper atmosphere allows air at the surface to rise. And generally more vigorous rising air leads to strong rain showers when there’s atmospheric moisture.

(Weather Bell)
The GFS model forecast for 500mb pressures, note the 6+ standard deviation low over Mexico shown in bright, Barney-like purple. (Weather Bell)

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Enjoy the weekend, because next week looks stormy

Yesterday was a classic mid-spring like day in Houston. We hit 84 degrees, which makes it the warmest day of 2016 so far. We won’t be pushing that the next few days, but it will stay warm.All the details below, and scroll to the end for an important article you should be reading today.

TODAY

I won’t implicitly suggest today is a good day to play hooky, but it’ll be awfully nice. Expect plenty of sun, low humidity, and temperatures roughly 10 degrees cooler than Thursday (mid-70s). Another winner.

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Muggy today, really nice this weekend, and turning wet next week

Good morning. It’s quite a bit warmer out, as expected, with a muggy start to the day and temperatures in the upper 60s.

TODAY

A cold front is coming, likely reaching the central part of the metro area by about noon, and pushing off the coast late this afternoon. Expect breezy conditions along with and after the front. We’ll see quite a warm day, with highs in the low 80s, before temperature cools off tonight as the Sun begins to set. Also, much drier air is moving in behind the front.

This relative humidity forecast for 6 a.m. this morning shows the stark difference in front of, and behind a cold front coming down through Texas. (Weather Bell)
This relative humidity forecast for 6 a.m. this morning shows the stark difference in front of, and behind a cold front coming down through Texas. (Weather Bell)

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