We’re only a week out from Thanksgiving, and you’re going to have to forgive me for the holiday puns. I can be a real goose sometimes. In any case, we’re talking puns because the forecast in the days ahead looks really pheasant, I mean pleasant, and there’s not a whole lot to say. We’ll see moderate weather through about Monday, at which time a cool front will arrive to bring weather that feels like Thanksgiving into Houston. So that’s something we can all look forward to.

I’d be remiss if I did not remind you that we’re in the midst of our annual fundraiser, that time of year when we ask for your help to keep Space City Weather going, and ensure that what we do can be maintained free for everyone. You can visit our store here. To the many of you who have already bought merchandise or made a donation, thank you very much.

Thursday

For the eastern half of the area there is a slight chance of some very light rain this morning, but for the most part we should be mostly cloudy. The clouds may thin somewhat, but the relative lack of sunshine should limit high temperatures to around 70 degrees today, with a light northeasterly breeze. Skies should remain mostly cloudy overnight, with lows perhaps dropping to around 60 degrees in Houston, and a bit cooler inland.

Friday

Expect a pleasant day with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-70s. With dewpoints at around 60 degrees the morning will be a bit sticky, but the afternoon humidity should be comfortably low. A weak, reinforcing cool front arrives on Friday but it won’t be particularly noticeable. Lows on Friday night should again drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend continues to look fine, especially Saturday, for outdoor activities. Highs on Saturday will reach the mid- to upper-70s with light northerly winds shifting to come from the east. After another mild night with lows down around 60 degrees, Sunday will again be mostly sunny with highs in the 70s. It will, however, be a tad more humid and we can’t rule out some light showers during the afternoon hours. Overall chances remain pretty low, however, perhaps 20 percent or less.

Next week

The timing for the region’s next significant cold front continues to bounce around, and now we’re back to Monday afternoon or evening. Ahead of the front we’re going to see a warm day (for November) with highs of around 80 degrees and pretty decent humidity. Some light to moderate rain is possible ahead of, or along with the front, but we’re not expecting anything serious.

The arrival of the front will put and end to the humidity, and bring a slug of much drier air into the region for a few days. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will likely in the low 60s, with lows dropping into the 40s. So, expect a chilly start to Thanksgiving Day. Accurately forecasting high temperatures for Turkey Day this far out is difficult, and will depend on the extent of cloud cover. But I’d ballpark highs somewhere in the mid-60s, with a milder night in the 50s. Rain chances for the holiday look low, to non-existent. A warming trend may bring highs to around 70 degrees before the next front.

After starting off nice yesterday, clouds did creep back for the afternoon. Most of that has cleared or is off to our east now. But we’ll fight the cloud cover forecast a bit again today. Hey, if clouds are the hardest part of our forecast, we’ll take that.

Meanwhile, just a quick reminder that our annual fundraiser is ongoing. We have a merch shop open for a limited time, or if you just want to donate to the site, you can do that too. We sincerely appreciate all the support!

Today

Clouds are going to linger this morning east of Chambers County, especially in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. These are stubborn low clouds that are a little more difficult to eradicate in mid-November, but hopefully some sunny breaks can emerge in those areas today.

Some model guidance does nudge those clouds back west a bit, so places like Baytown or Mont Belvieu run the risk of seeing some clouds perhaps for a time later today. But overall, let’s call today mainly sunny with highs in the low-70s.

Thursday & Friday

Both days look partly to mostly sunny and calm. We should see warming conditions with highs in the mid-70s tomorrow and upper-70s perhaps on Friday. Morning lows stay in the 50s. There could be a little patchy fog on either morning, but that should lift rather quickly after sunrise.

Saturday

A weak “cool” front will swing through late Friday or early Saturday. You probably won’t notice it at all, but it will act to sort of reinforce this autumn air mass a bit. We’ll top off in the mid-70s, with morning lows again in the 50s. Expect a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday & Monday

Clouds increase on Sunday, and we should see at least some scattered showers return to the picture by later in the afternoon or evening. Highs will be in the mid-70s, but they could be slightly warmer if clouds arrive slower Sunday afternoon.

A cold front will swing through Sunday night or Monday morning sometime it appears, which is a bit faster than it appeared yesterday. With it, showers appear likely, but rain totals should lag what we just saw recently in the area. Expect a cooler day on Monday, with low to mid-70s, although at some point, temperatures could drop 10 degrees or so, depending on the exact timing of the front.

Tuesday through Thanksgiving

Behind that cold front, we’ll have a bonafide cool day on Tuesday, with highs probably in the low-60s at best and morning lows in the low to mid-50s. Wednesday morning should see 40s for lows, as could Thanksgiving morning. Highs should be in the 60s both days. The forecast appears to be dry for both Wednesday travel and Thursday festivities. We’ll keep an eye on things, however, just in case. Warmer temps should follow into Black Friday and the weekend.

Good morning. After several days of gray and rainy weather, we’ll begin to transition to drier and sunnier weather. Our forecast for the days ahead really looks remarkably consistent, and for November, quite pleasant. Conditions start to look more dynamic next week as a stronger front moves through on Monday or Tuesday, setting up a cooler pattern that will likely persist through the Thanksgiving holiday.

Tuesday

By and large the rain is over. Over the last several days the Houston region, generally, picked up 2 to 4 inches of much needed rainfall that will help our ongoing recovery from this summer’s deep drought. There is still the potential for some isolated, light showers today, but with the low pressure system continuing to push eastward, the impetus for widespread rain has departed the building. We should actually see a bit of sunshine later today as the clouds start to break a bit. As a result high temperatures will reach about 70 degrees, with a light northerly wind. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-50s, generally, in Houston. It will be a bit cooler for outlying areas.

Wednesday and Thursday

As high pressure builds over the area, we should see a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the low 70s. Winds will be light, generally from the north. Expect lows to drop into the mid- to upper-50s.

Friday

Friday may be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid-70s, and perhaps a few more clouds. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks splendid for any outdoor plans you have. Skies should be mostly sunny, with reasonably dry air, and highs in the low 70s. Lows on Saturday night will probably drop into the 50s, although there’s a bit of uncertainty. Sunday looks similar, although it will probably be partly cloudy due to a passing disturbance, and we can’t entirely rule out some light showers later in the day and during the evening hours. Call it a 20 percent-ish chance.

Next week and Turkey Day

Monday should be in the 70s ahead of the passage of a cold front, perhaps during the afternoon or maybe not until the overnight hours. There is a fairly decent signal for rainfall with this front, so I’d count on a healthy chance of precipitation on Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps lingering longer. We’ll see. In terms of temperatures it now appears as though the front will knock highs down to about 60 for a few days, with lows perhaps in the 40s or 50s. We’re getting to the fuzzy point of the forecast now, but at this point Thanksgiving does appear to be on the chillier side. Whether the holiday is rain free, well, I don’t have great confidence one way or the other.

Space City Weather fundraiser

We’re in the midst of our annual fundraiser, which is your one opportunity to support Space City Weather during the year. You wouldn’t believe how many people write to me during the spring or summer months and ask if they can’t buy a t-shirt. So don’t miss your chance now: Head on over to our pop-up store to pick up some merchandise or make a donation. Thank you!

Good morning. Much of the area picked up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain overnight, and we’ll see continued light rain for most of the rest of the day—certainly nothing to worry about in terms of flooding. We’ll see sunny skies by midweek, with generally mild temperatures. The weekend looks pleasant, likely with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s.

Additionally, we’re in the midst of our annual fundraiser, during which you can buy merchandise or donate to Space City Weather to support the work we do. Please visit our pop-up store here to help keep the site running.

Monday

Additional rainfall accumulations today will be on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch for most locations, with the greater totals likely nearer the coast, and lesser totals for inland areas. It will also be a bit breezy as this coastal low pressure system passes nearby, with gusts perhaps reaching 25 or 30 mph at times from the northeast. These winds will peak during the afternoon hours. High temperatures today will likely hang around 60 degrees. We’ll only drop off a few degrees tonight, and we’re likely to see additional, on-and-off, light rain showers.

Tuesday

As the low pressure system moves off to the east, we’ll see a bit of a transition day. Some light showers may linger near the coast, but we’ll also see more, drier air moving in from the north. As a result, skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-60s. Northerly winds will blow at about 10 mph, but may gust at times to 20 mph. Temperatures will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Have you missed the sunshine? It will return by the middle of the week, with partly sunny skies for the rest of the work week. We’ll be on a gradual warming trend, with highs of around 70 degrees on Wednesday, reaching the mid-70s by Friday. Similarly, lows on Wednesday morning in the mid-50s will climb to around 60 degrees by Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring continued, mild conditions. We probably will see more partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows will be around 60 degrees. Saturday looks nigh on perfect for outdoor activities. There is a slight chance of some showers later on Sunday, as a disturbance passes nearby, but for now I’d bet on the majority of the Houston metro area staying dry.

Next week, and an early peek at Thanksgiving

At some point early next week, most likely on Monday or early Tuesday, the region’s next front will push into the area. Some showers may accompany this front, but that is not entirely clear. This front is likely to usher a significantly drier air mass into the Houston region. But how much colder will it be? We can’t be sure. So Tuesday and Wednesday of next week should be a bit cooler, perhaps with highs in the 60s.

And what of Thanksgiving? Unfortunately there is a very broad spread in the model outlook at this point, with a high temperature forecast anywhere from the mid-50s to about 80 degrees. At this point I don’t really feel like guessing because the forecast could go many different ways. Will we get a reinforcing cool front in the middle of next week? Will the onshore flow return, instead, opening up the possibility of showers by Thanksgiving? As soon as there is any clarity, I’ll let you know.