Yes, it’s still raining, and yes, that blows

“Oh good, the rain is still here.”

— Said no one in Houston this morning.

After a break in showers on Saturday afternoon, intermittent rain returned last night and during the overnight hours. And again this morning Houston was greeted by rain showers. So what happened?

An upper-level low pressure system that drove rain early on Saturday moved a little slower, and has been a little more effective at drawing moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. Hence the slow and steady rain for much of the metro area this morning.

Location of the upper-level low at 7:30 a.m. CT. (NOAA)
Location of the upper-level low at 7:30 a.m. CT. (NOAA)

 

Unfortunately, given the slow movement of the upper-level low pressure system, instead of seeing rapid clearing today we may see continued intermittent light-to-moderate rain. This shouldn’t be enough to cause any kind of flooding in Houston because the bayous were able to recover on Saturday afternoon and during the overnight hours.

But it does mean today will be mostly gray, intermittently sodden, and overall not the Sunday we were all hoping for.

I’m still pretty confident that Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant, mostly sunny fall-like days, with highs in the 70s. But that won’t make today any better.

Heavy rains ending, scattered showers still possible, cooler on Sunday

As of noon on Saturday the heaviest rains associated with today’s storms have moved through central Houston and are pushing off to the east.

Finally, right?

Radar snapshot at 12:05 pm CT. (Intellicast)
Radar snapshot at 12:05 pm CT. (Intellicast)

 

Although forecasts for the timing of the heavy rains were accurate — I had pegged midnight Friday to noon on Saturday for the most intense rains — amounts were not. Instead of isolated areas of six or more inches, widespread areas of the metro region received that much. And isolated areas to the east-northeast of Houston, including Crosby, received a staggering 11 inches of rain during the last 24 hours.

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Round Two of storms moving into Houston

A broken line of heavy thunderstorms has reached western Harris County as of 8 a.m. CT and will move through the metro region during the next several hours.

These storms could bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain to Houston, but fortunately many of the region’s bayous have had a couple of hours to recede.

Brays Bayou at Rice Avenue has receded about 5 feet from its early morning peak. (Harris County FWS)
Brays Bayou at Rice Avenue has receded  5 feet from its early morning peak. (Harris County FWS)

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Strong storms hit Houston overnight, more coming this morning

Very strong thunderstorms are moving through Houston this morning, and as of 5:30 a.m. as much as 1 to 6 inches of rain have already fallen. This is producing some street flooding, but so far bayous have largely remained within their banks.

Brays Bayou at South Main has seen a significant rise during the overnight hours but is holding within its banks for now. (Harris County FWS)
Brays Bayou at South Main has seen a significant rise during the overnight hours but is holding within its banks for now. (Harris County FWS)

The first round of storms has now largely moved off to the east, but another significant line of showers is coming in from the west. They will likely arrive in western Harris County by about 6:30 a.m.

These thunderstorms are capable of producing rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour, but the good news is that they are generally progressing. This means the heaviest rain should move through before noon. These storms could test some bayous before then, however.

As I have been saying, outdoor activities on Saturday morning are highly discouraged. Many streets are flooding, there have been multiple tornado warnings in the southeast part of the city, and more storms are on the way. According to Harris County sources, there is extensive damage around Danbury and Friendswood, and possible injuries at a mobile home park in Brazoria County. There have also been reports of a tornado in Pasadena. Some 25,000 Reliant customers are without power.

We still should see a clearing pattern throughout the day, with rains ending by afternoon or early evening for most areas.

Posted at 5:45 a.m. Saturday