In brief: Houston will see a few more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, but overall our pattern will turn sunnier and a bit hotter through Saturday. After that the focus turns to the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical disturbance is likely to develop. Local rain chances start to increase on Sunday, but at this point we expect the heaviest rain associated with this system to remain south of the Houston metro area.

Thursday

As high pressure expands over the Southern United States, we’ll see decreased rain chances today, perhaps on the order of 20 percent. Like in recent days, any showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late morning, afternoon, and early evening hours with daytime heating. A few areas may see accumulations of 1 inch or greater, but much of the area will see nothing. Skies, otherwise, should be partly to mostly sunny today with high temperatures in the low 90s. Winds will be light. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 70s for most locations.

Friday and Saturday

With high pressure reaching is broadest expanse into our area, skies will be mostly sunny on both of these days with temperatures in the low- to -mid-90s. Since we are very near to the summer solstice now, please know the Sun is almost directly overhead (an altitude of 84 degrees) during the midday hours. This will burn your skin quickly, so please take precautions. Afternoon dewpoints will be slightly lower on Friday and Saturday so it won’t feel as hot as it will later this summer. Rain chances on both days is 10 percent, or less.

Sunday and beyond

By Sunday our attention will turn toward the Gulf of Mexico. As we’ve been discussing for several days, a tropical disturbance is likely to form in the Bay of Campeche early next week. (The National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next seven days).

At this point I am fairly confident that high pressure over the southern United States will help to keep this system penned up in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and eventually steer it westward into Mexico (most likely) or South Texas. Although some organization is possible, the main threat from this tropical system is very likely to be heavy rainfall.

Due to the overall steering that we’re expecting, I think rainfall accumulations for the Houston area next week are likely to be manageable. Totals are likely to be highest along the coast, with the potential for 3 to 5 inches, with lesser amounts likely for inland areas. Greater accumulations than this are possible for locations further south, such as the Brownsville area, but uncertainty remains.

In the greater Houston area we’re also likely to see stronger onshore winds, perhaps 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, associated with the system. Tides may also run 1 to 2 feet higher with a persistent onshore wind. All of this forecast is subject to change if the tropical system evolves differently, but as for now I anticipate our localized effects to be mostly modest.

The bottom line is that much of next week, beginning Sunday, is likely to bring at least partly cloudy skies into the region with the chance for intermittent heavy rainfall. This pattern should help to keep high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees, so a bit cooler than normal. Matt and I will be watching this closely and update as warranted if the forecast substantially changes.

In brief: After one more day with storm-o-clock weather this afternoon, Houston will see a sunnier and hotter pattern set in through the first half of the weekend. We’re not going to get super-hot, but it will feel like June out there. By Sunday our attention turns to the Gulf of Mexico, and the potential for tropical rainfall much of next week.

Wednesday

We’re going to see one more day with the potential for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will be similar to what we’ve seen on Monday and Tuesday, with storms firing up during the late morning, afternoon, and early evening hours due to a combination of plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, the sea breeze, and an overall perturbed atmosphere. Similar to the last couple of days, a few locations may see accumulations of 1 to 2 inches of rain, whereas most of the area sees considerably less.

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny when it’s not raining, with high temperatures reaching the low 90s for much of Houston. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be light, around 5 mph from the northwest. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Thursday

This will be a bit of a transition day as high pressure builds into our area from the northeast. I can’t rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but most of us will see sunny skies with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Lows will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday and Saturday

These will be sunny and hot days, with highs in the low-to-mid 90s. However, dewpoints will be a bit lower than a classic Houston summer, especially on Friday. This will take some of the sting out of the daytime highs, and make evenings a little more comfortable. Lows on Friday night could drop into the low 70s for much of Houston. Rain chances for both of these days are less than 10 percent.

Sunday and beyond

Starting on Sunday, our attention will need turn to the Southern Gulf of Mexico, where we could see some sort of tropical disturbance develop. Right now I don’t anticipate anything too organized—i.e. with strong, hurricane-force winds. However, whatever does develop is likely to be an efficient conveyor belt to bring Gulf moisture onshore, and therefore serve as a source of moderate to heavy tropical rainfall.

Our best forecast models are split on the evolution of this system, and how far north it moves (this will depend on the strength of high pressure over the southern United States). What I can say is that, beginning Sunday and especially from Monday through Thursday, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall along the Texas coast, including the greater Houston area.

It is a folly to try and predict rainfall totals because there are still so many uncertainties about a forecast for 5 to 10 days from now. But this is the kind of thing where our area could see 1 inch of rainfall, or 10 next week. In any case, most of next week should see a cloudier pattern, and this should help to limit highs in the upper 80s. Matt and I will be keeping a close eye on this, and when we know something, you will.

In brief: Monday’s showers were hit or miss, with a few areas picking up 2 inches of rain and much of the rest of the area seeing dark clouds but little precipitation. This stormy pattern will continue for two more days before we turn sunny and hot for the second half of the week. Rain chances look to increase again early next week with the influx of tropical moisture. In today’s post, we also share a weather oddity observed on Monday.

Clouds over Houston’s freeways

On Monday a reader, Chris Yetsko, noticed an interesting feature when he was looking at satellite images of the Houston area shortly after sunrise. If you look closely near downtown you can see lines of cumulus clouds briefly firing up to the north. These align with Interstate 45, Highway 59, and Highway 290, just at rush hour. Frankly, neither Matt nor I have ever seen anything like this.

So what’s happening? I can’t say for sure. Cumulus clouds like these form when warm, humid air rises rapidly. When this air encounters colder temperatures aloft, water vapor in the air condenses. We did see some slightly cooler air north of Houston on Monday, so this may be why we see this phenomenon on freeways north of downtown, rather than south of the city where the atmosphere was a little warmer. Freeways, of course, are warmer than surrounding areas due to automobile exhaust. In any case, a fun little meteorological mystery we wanted to share.

Tuesday

The overall setup today is similar to Monday, with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and a series of disturbances propagating through the area. Therefore, I expect we’ll see the development of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms later today, predominantly during the afternoon and early evening hours with daytime heating. Accumulations should again vary widely, with some areas perhaps picking up 2 inches or more, and many areas seeing little measurable rainfall. Brief street flooding is possible under the strongest storms. Otherwise, expect partly sunny conditions today with high temperatures in the low 90s.

Wednesday

This should be a similar day to Tuesday, albeit with perhaps less shower and storm coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect highs in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances don’t entirely go away on Thursday, but they’re probably going to drop into the vicinity of 10 percent. By Friday they should be gone entirely. Thus, I expect these to be mostly sunny days with highs in the mid-90s. The humidity will be slightly lower, so enjoy those mornings and evenings.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring more hot and sunny weather, with most of the area in the mid-90s. However, we can’t rule out a few areas popping into the upper 90s. By Sunday the high pressure ridge that will bring sunny conditions during the second half of this week should be easing off, and it will open us back up to some rain chances. I’ll ballpark them at 30 percent or so, but we’ll need to fine-tune that as we get closer.

Next week

We’re still looking at the possibility of an influx of moisture from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico starting on Monday. The forecast is pretty messy, meaning there are a lot of variables in play and the models are struggling to hone in on a solution. My sense is to not be too worried about this. I’m just not seeing much of a signal for a really organized tropical storm to develop in the Southern Gulf of Mexico next week. The primary threat is heavy rainfall, but again all we can really say at this point is that we may see some elevated rain chances next week. We’ll keep watching for you.

In brief: The early part of this week will see some storm chances, especially Tuesday. After that we’ll be mostly sunny and increasingly hot through the weekend. Some slightly lower humidity is also in the cards, a real blessing in June. Finally, we’re following the possibility of heavy rain next week as a tropical disturbance develops in the Gulf.

Houston will see fairly normal weather this week for June, which is to say plenty of heat and some humidity, and scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. While that is far from pleasant, I consider this type of weather a win. Why? Because the summer months bring the biggest threats along the upper Texas coast. At this time of year, Houston could be facing significant flooding or a debilitating drought. Temperatures could be in the upper 90s or even triple digits. A hurricane could be forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

In short, boring and not blazing hot during the months of June, July, and August are just fine with me in H-town. However, if this is all too boring for you, be sure and check the outlook for next week at the end of this morning’s update.

Monday

We’ll start the week off with the potential for a few storms. I don’t expect anything crazy, but with fairly high levels of atmospheric moisture and a series of disturbances moving through we’ll see some rain chances through Wednesday. For today that means the development of some showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. I think these will be fairly scattered, so some areas may pick up a half an inch of rain, whereas much of Houston probably won’t see any meaningful accumulations. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today, with high temperatures in the low 90s. Winds will be light, from the northeast at 5 mph. Rain chances slacken tonight as lows drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday

This day probably has the best storm potential of the week. It appears as though a complex of storms will develop in central Texas on Tuesday, and push toward Houston during the afternoon and evening hours. It’s not clear how well this line of storms will hold up as it approaches our area, but there’s a decent chance of some storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening for the western half of Houston, and lesser so for the eastern side. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs again in the lower 90s for most locations.

Wednesday

Another day with a slight chance of storms, but otherwise mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-90s. With a continued northwesterly flow we should see the influx of some moderately drier air during the second half of the week, which will push dewpoints down into the 60s. This is not dry air by any means, but the days should feel a little less humid than Houston typically feels during the summer. Mornings and evenings will be a bit nicer as well. This slightly drier pattern should hold through about Friday, or so.

Thursday and Friday

Storm chances should go away for the second half of the work week as high pressure builds over the southern United States. Both Thursday and Friday should see sunny skies with highs in the low- to mid-90s and some of that slightly drier air. Overnight lows will drop into the low- to mid-70s. So again, not at all bad for June.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks sunny and hot, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s although a few locations may reach the upper 90s. Sunday looks sunny and hot as well, although there’s the potential for some showers as moisture moves in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Next week

At some point later this week or over the weekend we are likely to see a tropical disturbance develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At this time I don’t think there’s much risk for a hurricane to form or anything menacing like that. However, this tropical system could be a heavy rainfall threat for the Texas coast beginning late this weekend and next week as it conveys moisture from the Gulf inland.

We are still at the point in the forecast where there is a ton of uncertainty. For our region, whether we see a little rain next week, or potentially a lot (i.e. 5 or more inches), will depend on the strength of high pressure over the southeastern United States. This will moderate how far north any tropical disturbance can move in the Gulf. (Further north and closer to Houston would increase the potential for heavy rain here). In any case, this is something we’ll be watching over the coming days.