In brief: In today’s update we discuss the season’s first real fall-like front, arriving Tuesday evening with the potential for some brief showers and thunderstorms. The city will then see its coldest weather in 200 days, along with ideal weather for Halloween. We’ve waited a long time for this, so enjoy!

Fall Day recap

Thank you to everyone who came out to see Matt, Lee, and myself on Fall Day Saturday at Midtown Park. I’ll be honest, it took a little faith to schedule an outdoor event on a day with a 100 percent chance of rain, but in the end the weather was exceptional. And we had a lot to celebrate. Not only did the region get the drenching rains it needed early on Saturday, we have the region’s first real fall front to look forward to this week (more below). Anyway, it was so nice to meet you all, and say hello. Thanks to Reliant for setting up, and Michael Chu for the great photos.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have a bit of a chill, having dropped to around 60 degrees for most of the area away from the coast. Temperatures will recover quickly into the mid-80s today, with mostly sunny skies, and a light south-southwest wind. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

This will be a warm and humid day, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s for most. However by late afternoon or early evening we should see a (broken, maybe?) line of showers and thunderstorms advance through the area ahead of a cold front. Some of our latest high resolution modeling is showing this line to be a little more robust than expected, but I want to see a little more atmospheric data before making this conclusion. Anyway, drier air will rapidly filter in on Tuesday night after the front, with lows dropping into the 50s.

Wednesday

What a change this day will bring. It will be windy, with gusts from the northwest up to 30 or even 35 mph. Highs are likely to only reach the upper 60s despite sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for areas outside the urban core. The city will likely record its first sub-50 degree day since April 9 (which is 200 days ago, as of my writing this) at Bush Intercontinental Airport. So it has been a long time since the region has felt this chilly.

Thursday

Expect a sunny, pleasant day with light winds and highs around 70 degrees. I expect temperatures on Thursday night to even be a touch cooler than Wednesday night.

Halloween

This will be a sunny day, with highs in the low 70s and low humidity. Winds will be light, with trick-or-treating temperatures during the evening hours in the 60s. Overnight lows drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

It will be a partly to mostly sunny weekend with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and nights generally in the upper 50s. Humidity will be on the rise, but it still won’t feel particularly humid outside. In short, it should be fantastic weekend.

Next week

It’s possible that we could see another (weaker) front early next week to keep temperatures on the cooler side, but there is no definitive clear pattern yet.

In brief: After Saturday morning’s storms the atmosphere needed some time to recharge. It appears that is now happening, raising the possibility of more storms tonight. Here’s what we know, and what we don’t, about what to expect.

Fall Day

I’ll have some photos to share early next week, but I just wanted to thank the hundreds of people who came out to Midtown Park this morning to say hello, shake our hands, and share some kind words. It was wonderful to see everyone and share a few hours of lovely fall-like weather. Thank you also to Reliant for the hard work in setting it all up.

Saturday night

After this morning’s rollicking storms the atmosphere was pretty well worked over. This is why we had some confidence in several hours of calmer weather, and even some clear skies. However, factors such as atmospheric instability are now recovering, and by this evening the overall setup will become more conducive to the development of thunderstorms. With that said we still have some questions about how severe the storms will become. So what follows is our best guess, rather than a high confidence forecast.

Some time after sunset, perhaps in the range of 8 to 10 pm CT, a cluster of storms will develop northwest (near College Station) or north (along Highway 105). This line will then descend into Houston between 10 pm and early Sunday morning, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall, thunder and lightning, damaging winds, hail, and a very slight chance of a tornado. However, unlike the storms early on Saturday I think these will be less of a single line and more of a diffuse mass.

To that end I think these storms will be more hit or miss, but where they hit they could do so hard. Some areas may get less than 0.5 inch of rain, and some areas may get 3 inches or more. The higher totals are more likely south of Interstate 10. For the most part this should not be enough rainfall to cause significant flooding problems. The majority of the storms should have moved off the coast a couple of hours before sunrise.

In short there’s plenty of potential for storms to hit tonight, but unlike the guaranteed squall line on Saturday morning, there is a little more uncertainty.

Sunday and beyond

We could see a few isolated showers on Sunday, but for the most part I expect sunshine and a high near 80 degrees. With moderately drier air it should be a pleasant day, with lows Sunday night dropping to around 60 for much of the region. A stronger front arrives later on Tuesday, ushering in truly fall-like weather. We’ll talk about just how cold it’s going to get in Monday morning’s post. Until then, have a fine rest of the weekend.

In brief: Houston survived the first round of storms, and we expect to see calmer weather for much of Saturday before another line of storms passes through the region later this evening. Come see us at Fall Day!

Round one, done

Well, did those overnight storms wake you up? The first round to pound Houston moved through during the wee hours of the morning, bringing plenty of thunder and lightning, some damaging winds, and generally 0.5 to 2 inches of rain. As of just before 6 am this morning, about 5 percent of customers are without power due to the storms. As anticipated, this line has now moved off to the east, with conditions improving behind it.

Saturday, daytime

So where does this leave us for the rest of today? There will be a continued chance of showers this morning, but coverage should be rather scattered for much of the day. So generally we expect to have clearing skies by late morning hours, with temperatures in the 70s. For much of the day, it should be pretty nice.

Speaking of which, please consider coming by our Fall Day celebration today from 10 am to noon at Midtown Park. We anticipate generally nice conditions, but if there is a stray shower there is plenty of cover at the park. We will have lots of fun activities for your family, and we will have special, 10th anniversary t-shirts for sale (exclusively) this morning. I must very sincerely apologize, however. The complementary tote bags that I ordered were delayed in shipping and now now not due to arrive until Monday. We will have to distribute them at a later date. I am very sorry about this (and believe me I have agonized about it). Fortunately Reliant has promised lots of other fun giveaways and activities. See you soon!

Conditions should remain pleasant through at least the early afternoon. However, later on we expect to observe the development of a second line of storms to the west of our region, which will potentially impact our weather on Saturday night into Sunday.

Saturday night

We’re still waiting to see exactly how this sets up, given the state of our atmosphere after Saturday morning’s round of storms. But generally we can expect to see a line or cluster of storms to develop near College Station around sunrise, give or take a couple of hours. Then this line of storms, in association with a weak front, should sag into the greater Houston region between 8 pm and midnight, likely moving off the coast during the wee hours of Sunday morning. These storms will carry similar threats to round one: heavy rain, thunder and lightning, damaging winds, possibly some hail and a very slight chance of a tornado. What will be different is that they’re likely come earlier in the evening, catching people when they might be out for dinner, a show, a sporting event, or what not. Please do be mindful of the weather this evening.

Sunday and beyond

After the early morning hours, Sunday should be mostly sunny and pleasant with the system moved offshore. Monday will be a little warmer, in the low- to mid-80s before a fine fall front arrives on Tuesday and ushers in some lovely weather.

In brief: The forecast outlined in our post this morning is more or less on track. But we have a finer handle on the details of what to expect, and when, this weekend. In short, expect to be awoken early Saturday as storms sweep through.

Friday evening

There are some isolated showers on the southern periphery of the Houston metro area this evening, near Lake Jackson, but for the most part we expect this to be a quiet evening across the region. Expect fairly humid air with temperatures in the 70s as you take in high school football or partake in other activities. We have no weather concerns until after midnight.

Early Saturday

As we’ve been discussing for awhile now, a fairly robust squall line will move through the region during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. This line will bring the usual mix of lighting, thunder, strong winds, heavy rain, and potentially some hail. The line will fortunately be making fairly good progress from west to east, so the really intense weather won’t last too long, perhaps 30 minutes or at most an hour. On the Excitable Dogs Scale, I’m going to go with an 8.5 for tonight out of 10.

I expect the line to reach College Station between 1 and 3 am CT; a line from Katy to The Woodlands between 3 and 5 am; central Houston between 4 and 6 am; and the coast between 5 and 7 am. During these hours it would be best to hunker down as we quickly pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall and the usual, low-lying streets may briefly flood. Within an hour or two of sunrise these storms should have moved off to the east. Some scattered showers may linger.

Later Saturday morning

We expect some clearing after the squall line moves through, perhaps even a few hours of sunny skies. By some miracle, this happens to be when we’ve scheduled our Fall Day event, a celebration of Space City Weather’s 10th anniversary. Please come by Midtown Park, 2811 Travis, in Houston between 10 am and noon to say hello. We can’t rule out a few scattered showers during the late morning hours, but there’s plenty of cover at the park.

Saturday afternoon and overnight

We expect relatively quiet conditions from late morning through the afternoon, aside from the potential for some sporadic showers. However as a weak front approaches, we should see a second squall line develop later on Saturday evening. The timing is still a little fuzzy, but these storms could impact the College Station area during the evening hours and then drop into Houston in the 10 pm to 2 am time frame. So if you have Saturday night plans, you’ll want to keep an eye on the radar. After this weather clears we should see calm conditions on Sunday, and clearing skies.

We’ll have a full update for you on all of this tomorrow morning.