In brief: In this morning’s post we dig into our region’s very warm start to winter, which will continue this week. We probably will set more record highs. The post then explains why this is probably not the end of winter.

Who killed Jack Frost?

The month of December ended up 4.0 degrees above normal, and so far January is running much higher than what we typically experience at this time of year. We’ve already set one record high temperature this year (84 degrees, on Friday). This week will be no different, with record highs on Tuesday (80 degrees), Wednesday (81 degrees) and Thursday (79 degrees) all in play. Perhaps Friday as well, we will see.

By that point we will be nearly one half of the way into climatological winter, which spans from December through February. So is it just going to be super-warm weather all the way? I don’t think so. At the risk of being wrong (a hazard of the job!) I think that after a strong-ish front arrives late Friday or early Saturday of this week, we will fall into a cooler pattern for awhile. By this I mean days in the 60s and nights in the 40s. There are some hints of perhaps even colder weather toward the end of January, but who knows, really.

The bottom line is that we still have nearly eight weeks until March 1, and a lot can happen weather wise. So yes, this week is going to be unseasonably warm, just like a lot of December. But after that? We shall see.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have fallen to about 50 degrees across the metro area, which is the coldest we are going to get until at least next Saturday, but still warmer than is typical for January. Mostly cloudy skies this morning will give way to plenty of sunshine this afternoon, and this will allow high temperatures to push into the upper 70s for most locations. Winds will shift to come from the south over the course of the day. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These look to be the warmest days of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. One sobering note is that our all-time record high temperature for both the month of December and January is 85 degrees. That is potentially in play on Wednesday. With higher dewpoints (and humidity) we may also see some patchy fog on most mornings this week, including these days. Lows will again be in the 60s.

Thursday and Friday

A disturbance will precede the passage of a cold front late this week, and this will lead to the potential for some light showers on Thursday and Friday. I know we need rain, but unfortunately this frontal passage is unlikely to deliver on that score. Both of these days will have about a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain, but accumulations look slight. Daily highs will probably be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with increased cloud cover. There will be plenty of humidity. That should change some time on Friday night as a robust front sweeps through.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks decidedly cooler. I think highs on both days will reach the lower 60s, but this will depend on the amount of sunshine after the front. I think Saturday will see a fair amount, but Sunday could be partly cloudy, at least. I did a deeper dive yesterday into conditions for the Houston Marathon on Sunday, January 11, and that forecast more or less holds. If anything we’ve trended a bit cooler, with start line temperatures edging toward the lower 40s. Rain chances are low to non-existent, and my expectation is for fairly light winds. So all in all, pretty ideal for a long run.

Next week

We may slowly warm up some later next week, but we are still likely to remain in the 60s on most days, with drier air and cool, if not cold nights. Unfortunately I don’t see any real rainmakers in the next 10 to 15 days.

In brief: In this Sunday special edition of Space City Weather, we’re offering the latest forecast for the Houston Marathon, which is one week from today. The short version is that things look really good!

Why are we doing this?

One week from now, for my fellow runners, it will be all over. We can throw those training plans into the trash, and for one glorious day eat anything we want without any guilt whatsoever. We’ll have sore legs and (hopefully) great memories. The post-race afternoon always feels sublime to me. And then I wake up the next morning and it’s a herculean task to get out of bed.

Now you may ask, why a bespoke forecast for the Houston Marathon? Well, for one, it’s a selfish indulgence. As a runner, I care a lot about race day conditions. But this is also, by far, the largest sporting event in the city of Houston. This year will have the biggest field ever, with about 30,000 participants in the half and full marathon, as many volunteers, and many more spectators. So there are a lot of people who care about this. The good news is, even a week out, the forecast is coming into focus; and for long-distance runners, the outlook is pretty good. So let’s jump into it.

Week of the race

We’ve had a front come through early on Saturday, which will keep us on the chilly side of things through Monday morning. But then we’re going to warm up dramatically this coming week, approaching or breaking record highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Such conditions, with high dewpoints, are brutal to run in. But fortunately a cold front is in the cards for Friday, Friday night, or Saturday morning. This will be our saving grace.

Race Day

The race starts shortly before 7 am CT on Sunday, January 11, with the elite runners kicking off first. (If you’re wondering what category I fall into, search for antonyms of ‘elite.’) There is still some uncertainty in the precise temperatures on Sunday morning, which is natural given that we are still seven days out. Right now my guess would be mid-40s, but I could see anything ranging from about 40 to 50 degrees. Temperatures probably will rise into the lower 50s by noon or so. The air will be dry, in terms of humidity. I expect dewpoints to be quite a bit lower, so that’s great news in terms of efficient cooling.

Beyond temperatures the details are a little more challenging, and subject to change. However, most of our guidance indicates that after the front comes through we are going to see cloudy skies for a couple of days, rather than a general clearing. For this reason, I think we probably will see partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, at least through the morning hours. Because there will be some remnant moisture in the atmosphere (hence the clouds), I think it is possible we could see some light rain (i.e sprinkles or a mist). At this point I’d peg the chances at maybe 20 percent. So pretty low. And there is zero support for hazardous weather or heavy rain.

As for winds, with the frontal passage happening well before the start of the race, I don’t expect anything too crazy, perhaps 5 to 10 mph. We’ll see about that.

Anyway, that’s it: Cooler air with low humidity, probably a fair amount of clouds, some slight rain chances, and light winds. That, my friends, is about as good as one could hope for. Good luck, everyone!

In brief: In today’s post we take a look back at the year in weather for 2025, which had few major stories. The notable exception was a winter storm back in January. There was also a hidden, but significant story as well. We also take a look ahead to a stand-out weekend and warmer weather for much of next week.

A look back at 2025

In some ways, last year was one of the quietest in recent history weather-wise for Houston. The most notable event occurred in January, with a hard freeze and widespread snowfall. Do you remember the snow? Many locations picked up 3 to 5 inches, and following this low temperatures dropped into the upper teens.

But after this January winter storm Houston’s weather turned tranquil. We made it through spring without major, widespread storms or flooding. All summer we experienced nary a tropical storm in the Gulf. Laughably, the only “threat” was conjured up on social media in July, when some non-meteorologists were energetically warning Houston that a hurricane was on the way. (It was not). Fall came and went with mostly calm weather as well, aside from a few tornadoes. Winter, to date, has been fairly mild. When you add it all up, it was a quiet year, especially after January. We see that in our website traffic. We average about 10 million page views a year on Space City Weather, and we were down by about 30 percent this year. I’m not complaining, I don’t like scary weather that threatens my home and family, either.

In one way, however, the weather in 2025 was extreme.

I am speaking about temperatures. I went ahead and plotted the average annual temperature in Houston dating back to 1969, when the official monitoring station was first moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport. It turns out this year’s average temperature of 73.0 degrees was the second hottest in the nearly six decades of records there. It was exceeded only by the mark of 73.1 degrees in 2024. In fact, the last three years have recorded the three hottest annual average temperatures at the airport since its opening in 1969.

One of the things that stands out on this graphic is that the annual average temperature in the 1970s was nearly five degrees lower. Now global temperatures have not risen that quickly, and it is not possible to say how much of the warming observed at Bush airport is due to climate change. Some is very likely due to urbanization around the airport. But a significant chunk is clearly due to a warming planet, as similar trends have occurred elsewhere, including Galveston Island. There is no question that Houston is quite a bit hotter now than it was half a century ago. Even a decade ago, for that matter. That is the hidden extreme from last year.

Friday

Speaking of heat, today will bring it. Highs will crest in the low 80s, maybe even mid-80s for some locations, thanks to a warm southerly flow ahead of our next front. Winds will be gusty, from the south up to 25 mph. The record high temperature for today is 81 degrees, and I’m fairly confident we’ll strike above that comfortably. In any case, we will be about 20 degrees warmer today than is customary for early January. The warmth will be goosed by mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will only drop to about 60 degrees, before cooler and drier air arrives on Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend won’t feel much like January typically feels in Houston, but it’s going to be gorgeous all the same. We should have wall-to-wall sunshine, and lower humidity. Saturday morning will be a bit windy, with northerly winds up to about 20 mph. But they should back down during the afternoon. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s, with lows on Saturday night dropping to around 50 degrees. Sunday will be splendid and sunny, with highs around 70 degrees. We’ll have another night with lows around 50 degrees on Sunday night.

Next week

Much of next week looks warm for January as a ridge high pressure builds over the central United States. Monday probably will not reach the 80s, but most of the rest of the week will be in the vicinity. Skies will be mostly sunny during the daytime, and with dewpoints in the low 60s it will feel moderately humid. Nights will be mild. At some point a stronger front will push into the region later next week, probably late on Friday or Saturday. I don’t have much confidence yet in the details, but there could be a modest splash of rain with the front, perhaps on the order of one-half inch. For many parts of Houston there has not been significant rain in nearly four weeks, so anything would be welcome.

As for my runners, let’s hope that front makes it in time for the Houston Marathon on Sunday. I’m about 75 percent confident that it will, and we’ll have start-line temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with drier air. But there are risks. One is that the front is delayed, in which case we’ll be quite a bit warmer and muggier. Another is that the front comes through just before the run, and we see some lingering showers. Overall, I’m hopeful about race-day conditions, but not confident yet.

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone. I’m going to be outside a lot, soaking in this great weather.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our transition from turbulent weather to a calmer vibe. We bring you tidings of a tranquil entry into the year 2026, a brief warm-up, and then a truly gorgeous weekend. Happy New Year, everyone!

New Year, calm vibe

Good morning, everyone. I hope you celebrate a safe and fun New Year’s Eve. In terms of weather, there’s not too much to worry about, which is a nice change from the high winds observed Monday (gusts to 40 mph and higher) and this morning’s light freeze across much of the region. Rather, we will see calm conditions today, tonight, and into the new year. Our mild and calm weather will persist into the middle of next week when things could turn a bit more turbulent. Given the tranquil conditions ahead, I feel comfortable in taking the New Year holiday off, so look for our next update on Friday morning. Happy New Year!

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning range from the upper 20s north of Houston, in typically cold areas like Conroe, to just above freezing in the urban parts of the city, and about 40 degrees right on the coast in Galveston. This will be our coldest morning for quite some time, and with winds turning west our temperatures will soon moderate. And it’s not just Texas that’s cold and dry, in the map below you can see that very low dewpoints prevail across the entire Lower 48 states this morning.

Of course it won’t last. With ample sunshine our temperatures today will climb into the mid-60s. For those out and about ringing in the new year, temperatures should fall into the upper 40s late this evening, but I don’t expect much in the way of a breeze to add additional chill to the air. Lows on Thursday morning will drop to around 40 degrees for most locations.

New Year’s Day

We start the new year with a fine, partly to mostly sunny day, with temperatures in the 70s. Dewpoints (and therefore humidity) will be rising, but they don’t look excessively high. Lows on Thursday night will only fall to around 60 degrees.

Friday

This is going to be a warm day as southwest winds really get going ahead of an advancing, albeit weak, front. We’re going to see gusty winds up to about 25 mph, and this influx of warmer air will push highs into the low-80s for much of the region. The record high for Houston, on January 2, is 81 degrees. I anticipate that we’re going to break that comfortably. However that front will eventually ride into Houston on Friday night, or early Saturday, to bring milder weather back into the picture. At this point I expect a dry passage.

Saturday and Sunday

The first weekend of 2026 looks like a real splendid one. Days will be sunny, and nights clear. Highs will likely be somewhere in the mid-70s with moderately dry air. Nights probably in the low 50s. Seriously, this will be fine weather for any outdoor activities you have planned.

Next week, and the Houston Marathon weekend

The first half of next week looks warm, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and nights in the 60s. So we probably will see the return of some fog (dreaded by most, but loved by some). We might see a weak front during the middle of the week, or maybe not. There is some slightly better agreement in the models that a stronger front will drop into the region around next Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. This front is likely to bring some rain with it (although at this far out, who can say for sure?) Anyway, the weather for Sunday, January 11th (marathon day) will depend on a) whether this front makes it, and b) when it does. A passage on Friday or Saturday morning would set up clear and cool conditions for Sunday. A passage on Saturday night or Sunday morning could mean rain and wind. For now I’d expect a passage before Sunday, but that is not something I am remotely comfortable predicting with confidence. More when we know something!