Houston will warm up now, and some rain likely returns next week

After Wednesday’s absolutely gorgeous weather—easily one of the nicest days in late May in the last 20 years—conditions are now going to warm up some across Houston. But the weather is still going to remain relatively calm for awhile, until the forecast turns wetter at the beginning of next week.


This morning is still going to be quite nice across the Houston area, with lows starting out in the 60s for most of the region, and still relatively dry air. Highs today should reach into the mid-80s or so under mostly sunny skies. But later on today you’re probably going to notice winds picking up out of the south, which will signal the return of humidity, and eventually, better rain chances.

Friday and Saturday

Heading into the weekend we’re going to see warm, almost summer-like weather. (Which seems appropriate because let’s face it, folks, summer is almost upon us). Look for high temperatures of around 90 degrees, and relatively steamy overnight lows only falling into the upper 70s. Skies should remain sunny for the most part.

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I’m expecting at least partly sunny skies on Sunday, and any rain that does develop probably will hold off for most of the day. Thus, while we can’t rule out some isolated or scattered showers on Sunday, I suspect the weather for most outdoor activities should be fine—just hot, about 90 degrees, as is usual this time of year.

Memorial Day and beyond

By Sunday night, or so, moisture levels will be pretty high across the area. At about this time a front moving through north Texas should send some energy into southeast Texas, and provide some impetus for rain showers. I’m still not seeing much of a signal for really heavy rain next week, so for now I’m going to stick with the most likely scenario of light-to-moderate rain showers. A continued succession of upper-level low pressure systems should keep a healthy chance of rain in the forecast.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through next Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

Therefore, for Memorial Day and at least the first half of next week, I’d expect partly to mostly cloudy days, highs in the mid-80s, and healthy rain chances. Accumulations from Sunday night through most of next week will probably be on the order of 1 to 2 inches for most people, but given the high atmospheric moisture levels certainly some parts of the region will get more. We’ll continue to keep an eye on it.

2 thoughts on “Houston will warm up now, and some rain likely returns next week

  1. Sky Guy

    Eric, I’m a little worried. Confidence seems to be growing that a scenario similar to the one we just experienced Tuesday could/will unfold on (or around) Memorial Day. Our model soundings look ripe for thunderstorm development to quickly evolve into strong or severe early next week, due to Memorial Day’s impressive thermodynamics. Bottom line: Houston proper was lucky on Tuesday—–this may not be the case on Memorial Day.

    What do you think?

  2. Sky Guy


    NOAA says:

    “Depending upon the passage of the aforementioned
    shortwave disturbances/troughs…a scenario similar to the one we
    just experienced yesterday could unfold on (or around) Memorial
    Day. Model soundings look ripe for thunderstorm development to
    quickly evolve into strong or severe early next week. While the
    shear improves through Wednesday…Memorial Day`s thermodynamics
    are impressive (1.5K to 2.5K J/kg CAPE…6-8 deg C/km 0-3 km
    lapse rates leading to high lifted indices) with higher K indices
    support more areal storm coverage.”

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