Some rain chances finally return to Houston, as tropics sizzle

For Houston, the first half of September has been quite pleasant—with average temperatures running about 4 degrees below normal thanks to an early season cold front. Alas, the second half of the month probably will end up a few degrees above normal, as it doesn’t look like we’ll see another cold front for another 10 to 12 days, at least. Rain chances also return to the area after a long break.

Monday

Today brings the region its best rain chances since Hurricane Harvey departed the area nearly three weeks ago as atmospheric moisture levels rise, and high pressure abates some. I don’t think this means more than scattered showers later today, but some areas could pick up a few tenths of an inch of rain. Highs in the low 90s.

Tuesday through Thursday

A more or less similar pattern continues with a moist atmosphere, and some moderate atmospheric disturbances pulsing through the area. This will lead to partly sunny days, with perhaps 40 to 50 percent of the area seeing light to moderate rain showers each day. Again, these are nothing to be concerned about from a flooding perspective, and area lawns and trees will be grateful. Highs around 90 degrees.

Friday through the weekend

High pressure may build back near the area, but probably not right on top of Houston. This may scale back rain showers a bit, but a chance will remain as high temperatures remain consistent near 90 degrees. In other words, this week’s weather probably won’t change much through the weekend.

Tropics

As mentioned Saturday, the Atlantic tropics remain sizzling hot in terms of activity, but we’re not seeing anything of concern for the Gulf of Mexico right now.

Hurricane Jose

This storm may bring some gusty winds to New York (on Tuesday) and Boston (on Wednesday and Thursday), but nothing particularly extreme. Rainfall may be a bigger concern, with some areas of eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts getting as much as 5 inches of rain over the next several days. But Hurricane Jose is nonetheless expected to remain offshore, and its center should weaken over colder waters later this week.

Hurricane Maria

This storm now seems likely to bring more damaging winds to the Caribbean Islands, which were previously hit by Hurricane Irma. The Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico seem especially in line for significant effects between now and Wednesday, with a Category 3 or 4 hurricane landfall likely.

Longer-term, forecast models now generally agree that Maria will probably turn northward before reaching the continental United States. We’ll have to keep an eye on it for the US East Coast, however.