Sorry mom, rain showers may spoil the party on Sunday

In brief: Houston faces a couple of more warm-to-hot days before a weak front arrives to cool us down a bit. Saturday looks best for outdoor activities this weekend as rain chances increase in time to possibly put a damper on Mother’s Day in Houston. Also today, we invite you to participate in a University of Houston research project that will help us refine our flood scale. More information below.


Houston narrowly missed 90 degrees on Tuesday, with a high of 88 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Today is likely to see similar temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees across most of the metro area. Partly to mostly cloudy skies should put a limit on temperatures beyond this. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. If you were out and about on Tuesday evening you may have noticed the humidity—that is what dewpoints in the mid-70s will do for you. Expect another warm and sultry night tonight.

High temperature forecast for Thursday. (Weather Bell)


Another warm day. I think this will be the warmest of the week, with much of Houston likely reaching 90 degrees or a tick above. There may be a little more sunshine to help push temperatures up. If we look at the atmospheric profile, we see a fairly strong capping inversion that will help to prevent lift. However, if this cap breaks we could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms later on Thursday. Chances are probably less than 20 percent. Expect another warm night.


A weak front—there’s rarely any other kind this time of year, and we ought not to complain—will move through Houston on Friday morning. This will eventually bring some drier air into the region, but the day will start out fairly humid. Highs will likely reach the mid- to upper-80s beneath mostly sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 60s for most locations, although how far will depend on your distance from the coast.


The first half of the weekend looks splendid for mid-May. We’re talking partly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. The driest air will be found on Saturday morning, with dewpoints in the 50s. If you get out and walk, run, or bike that morning it should feel really comfortable. The onshore flow returns pretty quickly, however.

Excessive rain outlook for Sunday and Sunday night. (NOAA)


Mother’s Day will have less sunshine, more humidity, and a decent chance of rain. Sorry, mom. Highs will likely top out in the low 80s. As high pressure moves away it will open up the region to a series of disturbances on Sunday and Monday. I don’t think we should be overly concerned about heavy rainfall, but the details are hard to parse at this point. It does look as though much of the area may see 1 to 2 inches of rain during the Sunday to Tuesday period. So expect scattered to widespread showers on Sunday.

Next week

More of the same is likely on Monday, with lesser rain chances later in the week. Highs next week look to return to the upper 80s or thereabouts. Humidity levels don’t look quite as high as we’re seeing at present.

Help with flooding study

We are excited to announce a research partnership with the University of Houston! For our first project, we are trying to understand how people respond to different levels of flood risk during severe weather events. We are looking for people over the age of 60 or under the age of 35 to participate in a 90-minute, in-home telephone call during which they will complete some tests of thinking skills (e.g., memory), survey questions, and weather-related tasks. Participants who complete the study will receive a $20 gift card to either Walmart or Kroger. If you are interested in participating in this study, please click here.

19 thoughts on “Sorry mom, rain showers may spoil the party on Sunday”

  1. Great. I fall into the “donut hole” of the age ranges so I’m disqualified from this survey.

    Since I can’t get that gift card, can I have 20% lower humidity all summer instead as a consolation prize?

    Seriously glad to hear that next week will have lower humidity than this week. I can almost squeeze the moisture out of the air now.

    • Simple answer to “should I stay or should I go” — run for the hills!!! This applies double to anyone living in Katy (ducking).

      Oh, you need to be listening to The Clash while doing it.

    • The age range is interesting.

      I’m curious why those ranges were chosen, because in my mind, they’re the two ranges least likely to have children of a certain age.

      Having young kids that could not swim and would be entirely dependent on adults for safety and protection during the evacuation was the reason I ended up leaving during Harvey – even though a flood threat was unlikely in my neighborhood. I just couldn’t risk being stuck in a home or being forced to evacuate in floodwater with kids under 5.

      If I was a single adult, I’d be a lot more risk tolerant and focused on protecting my property than if I had kids.

  2. I don’t even care about the gift card, I just want to participate as I have a lot of input on the “stay or go” aspect. I was glad when the flood scale came out, but had to “modify” it based on my own area (downstream of Lake Conroe – W San Jac). Over the years, I figured out that if it’s 1 or 2, I am okay. 3 – watch SJRA and the river levels closely. 4 & 5 – get the hell out.

  3. Is the atmospheric setup that’s coming Sunday and into next week the same as what we had last week with the flooding?

    • I posted about this below. NWS says “there are communication line issues, and we continue to wait for the FAA and phone company to get it fixed. There is no indication about when this will be done. Sorry for any inconvenience this may be causing you.”

  4. This info might be useful for some: I emailed the Houston-Galveston office of the National Weather Service about the lack of weather readings (temp, wind, etc) from Hooks Airport (KDWH) since May 3, and I got a reply in 45 minutes (!!) from Josh L: “…there are communication line issues, and we continue to wait for the FAA and phone company to get it fixed. There is no indication about when this will be done. Sorry for any inconvenience this may be causing you.”

  5. My hands were basically wet waiting on the elevator in the parking garage this morning. HOUmidity off the charts a little early this year.

    • Yep and expect it to get worse and worse in the years to come. The increasingly hot gulf of Mexico is going to evaporate more moisture into the air as time goes on. I look to see heat index values in the 120s and 130s regularly during the summer once we reach the 2030s and 40s.

  6. What can you say about the air quality? Why does Houston appear to have a thick layer of smog/smoke over it the last few days? Wildfires from other countries? The formidable Saharan dust? It’s making me miserable.

    • It’s Texas summer time and the air is full of greasy backyard BBQ smoke. Ugh!

    • The glass is low! 2966….so lots of clouds but they can’t go higher and rain because of a warm air inversion. It’s another oddity of the weather here. Love it.

    • I’m pretty sure it is just the extreme humidity…sunlight scattering on water vapor

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