A few thunderstorms are possible tonight, with better rain chances on Sunday and Monday

In brief: There are several things to watch for in the forecast, including hot temperatures today, some isolated thunderstorms tonight, and the potential for rain on Sunday and Monday in the absence of high pressure. Also, if you enjoy dry air, then Friday night and Saturday morning will be your time to shine.


Houston will experience one more warm and particularly humid day today before we cool off slightly. Whether temperatures hit 90 degrees today will depend partly on sky cover this afternoon, when skies should be partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

By this afternoon a front will be approaching the area, and this may serve as a trigger for some isolated thunderstorms later this evening. I think the most likely scenario is that these storms weaken before pushing into the Houston metro area, to the west of Katy and north of Tomball. However, there is a slight risk of development over Houston itself, in which case we may experience some briefly heavy rainfall and the potential for hail. So the risk is low, but non-zero this evening. Lows tonight should drop into the 70s in Houston.

The HRRR model forecast for 11 pm CT tonight shows the potential for isolated thunderstorms. (Weather Bell)


Drier air will slowly filter in to the region during the daytime on Friday, when I expect to see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be from the northwest at about 10 mph with some higher gusts. Lows on Friday night drop into the upper 60s to 70 degrees for most locations.


The first half of the weekend looks fine, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. Dewpoints should reach their low point on Saturday morning, so if you’re someone who likes drier air, that will be a good time to be out and about. As you might know, Houston doesn’t get much (ok, any) of that during a typical June, July, or August. Lows will drop to about 70 degrees on Saturday night as the onshore flow returns.


Mother’s Day won’t bring much sunshine, alas. In fact as high pressure exits the area, our atmosphere will open up to a series of disturbances that will bring decent rain chances through the middle of next week. For Sunday, this means scattered to widespread showers. There is a risk of heavy rainfall, particularly north of Interstate 10, but for the most part these should be reasonable rains I think. In any case, please consider the possibility of showers on Sunday as you make plans for mom. Highs will be about 80 degrees with returning humidity.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Monday. (Weather Bell)

Next week

We’ll see additional disturbances next week, and while the details are difficult to pin down, I expect to see a healthy chance of rain on Monday (highest), Tuesday (lowest), and Wednesday (medium) of next week. Regardless, it’s not going to be wall-to-wall rain, as there should be a fair amount of sunshine mixed in as well, with highs generally in the upper-80s. Rain chances diminish toward the end of the week, with highs likely around 90 degrees to go along with warm, humid nights.

24 thoughts on “A few thunderstorms are possible tonight, with better rain chances on Sunday and Monday”

  1. Looking forward to Friday and Saturday. I do recall about 18-20yrs ago a cold front in early June. And who can forget that powerful August cold front during the Republican convention. Hope they keep coming.

  2. What has been the cause of the haze/smogginess in the air the past few days?

    • Warm air inversion. Not pollution. Look at your barometer. 29.70 in. That’s low, and it ought to be raining. My little weather station has lots of rain (simulated). But it can’t. Convection is limited to 5000 feet or so and clouds can’t get cold enough. A frequent odd feature of weather here which I find fascinating.

    • It’s been smoke from Mexico and other Central America locations that’s been moving north for quite a while.

    • My “citizen” app has alerted that it is a result of agricultural fires in Mexico.

  3. Eric, we are warily watching the Brazos River here in Fort Bend County. It’s supposed to crest on Sunday or Monday, but with 2-3” of rain over the watershed immediately thereafter, that seems like it could be bad.

    What are your thoughts on that subject?

  4. Is the atmospheric setup Sunday and into next week the same as what existed last week with the flooding?

    • I think the haze is from all of these dang mosquitoes. This is one of the worst mosquito outbreaks I’ve ever seen. What makes it so stupid is that this is from rain that my area didn’t get.

      • Someone in the comments already discussed possible reason for haziness. mosquitoes ain’t it stranger

        • I was actually just joking about the haze part lol but the mosquitoes are very bad right now atleast in my area near the coast.

  5. The HRRR model shows any T’Storm activity being at least 100 miles north of Houston, so I fail to see the point of mentioning it as a potential threat to us.

    • 12:48 p.m.: A cell or two, producing thunder and lightning, modest precip skirts the area near TMC. Don’t be over-reliant on model solutions in the face of reasonable thermodynamic and kinematic data.

  6. Those of us north of Houston off I-45 are still dealing with the 20+ inches of rain last week. I don’t see any comments on how tonight’s storm will affect our region. Do we need to be concerned?

  7. Huntsville is 76 miles from Houston and about 30% of the way to Dallas from Houston:

  8. Storms? Big surprise. I am so beyond disgusted with this hot and wet weather and it’s only May. Counting down the days until I move. Never been looking so forward to a move in my life. It’s usually stressful to move but this time I am celebrating.

  9. Have you explained why we are having such cloudy days this spring? Did I miss that? Is there a weather related explanation?

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