In brief: Storms are rumbling through Houston during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday, and this is the first of a handful of disturbances we can expect this weekend. Rain chances are a bit lower on Sunday, and we are hopeful that by Memorial Day we’ll see a fair bit of sunshine.
Good morning. Like some of you, I imagine, I was awoken before 5 am by storms rumbling into the Houston area from the west. This pre-sunrise activity is the first of a series of disturbances expected to propagate across the region over the next 24 to 36 hours. We still have some uncertainty about the timing for heaviest rainfall, but I am increasingly hopeful that we will see improving conditions by Memorial Day. Thus, if you were hoping to have a pool day, or a beach day, or otherwise celebrate the holiday outdoors in hopes of a little sunshine, all is not lost.
But first, we have some storms to deal with.
The current area of showers and thunderstorms is producing fairly heavy rainfall, and there is also the threat of some severe weather, including small hail and damaging wind gusts. The period between now (5:45 am) and around 9 or 10 am this morning should be treated with caution due to the potential for severe weather as well as pockets of heavy rainfall (we’ve seen rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches).
So what happens after this round of storms? I think we’ll see a break in activity from the mid-morning to the early afternoon hours. But then, as the atmosphere has time to recharge and we experience daytime heating, another disturbance will approach from the southwest. This will likely spread into Houston during the afternoon or evening hours. Whether it is intense as the storms this morning is not entirely clear—the atmosphere may still be a bit worked over. Some of our high resolution modeling indicates these storms will be strongest along and south of Interstate 10.
We are likely to see more disturbances on Sunday, although timing them is difficult, and it’s not clear how strong they will be. Anyway, expect a healthy rain chance in the vicinity of 60 or 70 percent. By later on Sunday we may be able to lift our Stage 2 flood alert, which is indicative of the waning potential for street flooding and flash flooding.
In contrast to the first part of the holiday weekend, we now think there’s a decent chance of partly sunny (maybe mostly sunny) skies on Memorial Day, with rain chances at or below 50 percent. In other words, most of the day should be fine to celebrate outdoors. Highs will likely be in the vicinity of the mid-80s on Monday, so fairly warm but not in any meaningful way will it be hot.
If the storms this evening look to become fairly strong, we’ll be back with a short update this afternoon. If not, we’ll see you on Sunday morning.
