It’s been a long day so just a quick post this evening.
We’ve had a nice break from the heavy rain for several hours, and I think that will continue for at least a little while longer. However I’m watching the movement of some storms over central Texas with some concern, as they may move into the Houston metro area tonight. They have become moderately more organized during the last couple of hours.
Frankly it is not at all clear to me what will happen as this newest system approaches Houston later tonight. On one hand, the atmosphere is pretty worked over, as today’s storms have sapped it of much of its energy and moisture. However there remains a lot of moisture offshore, and that will continue to flow inland tonight, and the upper-level low remains nearby to force it upward.
I’m struggling here, but I could see these storms bringing an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain over some locations tonight, which would be really problematic for western parts of the metro area due to rains during the last 24 hours. I could also see these storms weakening by the time they reach Houston around 10pm or later given all that’s happened already today.
Out of an abundance of caution, however, I feel the need to at least call attention the possibility of heavy rain tonight shortly before and after midnight. I will be back early in the morning with additional forecasts.
Posted at 7:50pm CT on Monday
Eric,
Probably asking a lot, but when you say “western parts of the metro area”, can you give us some idea for which general areas you are talking about? Everything west of the loop? West of the beltway? How far south are we talking?
Western half of Harris County, Waller County and Fort Bend County, all of which got hammered with rain Sunday night and Monday morning.
Does that include Meyerland too? Any sense of how well braes bayou here would handle an additional few inches? Thanks again!
Yes, my concerns would include Braes Bayou as well.
Thank you for keeping us informed. It’s not easy delivering less than happy news.
Thank you for the constant updates today. It was greatly appreciated.
You’re quite welcome.
Thanks for the updates! I hope it doesn’t get bad again, I have the TLA conference downtown and I’d very much like to be able to drive there without much trouble.
I think driving into Houston in the morning should be OK.
I sure love your forecasts and we are all glad you still do this for us pro bono. I love that I can count on you not giving into the hype of the broadcast news. Thank you
Hate to say this, but it is raining in the Energy Corridor/east Katy.
thank you for keeping us so well informed!
I can hear it now down at the Chron. “Get me that weather guy, Eric something! We need him to cover this storm” “Chief, remember, you let him go” Whoops.
Eric – thanks for the work today. I think you deserve a nap or something now.
Brief 2-3 minute rain around Ellington in the past 30 minutes or so.
Eric, you are the man. You’re the only one I truly trust when it comes to these reports. My work is of a nature that when these things happen, our job becomes so much more intensified so getting to work is crucial for us. So just want you to know that you are very much appreciated. Keep up the good work my friend
Eric, it’s Zain. Awesome job! Really appreciate all that you’re doing here. How do you see this shaking out for our airports by the morning? I have a coworker who is concerned.
Zain! Sorry I missed this last night. I went to be early. Things are obviously OK this morning, although I’m a bit concerned about Wednesday morning.
Thanks so much for the updates. You are appreciated!
Love your website. Thanks for all you do.
You are SO awesome for all your insightful, carefully considered posts. Thank you for being you and doing what you do! As someone who has called Houston “home” since Hurricane Katrina, I appreciate your weather wisdom more than you could possibly know! 🙂
Thank you, Susan.