Summary: In this post I go a bit deeper into the forecast for Texas locations on Monday, during the solar eclipse. Otherwise, Houston faces a couple of more sunny days before we cloud up and warm up this weekend, with increasing rain chances on Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Eclipse weather
On Monday, when we last discussed the overall pattern for cloud cover during the Solar eclipse on April 8, I described the outlook for Texas as “fairly grim.” Unfortunately, three days later, the overall forecast is pretty much the same. This applies both in Houston, where the Sun will see coverage of 94 percent by the Moon, and more broadly in Texas where the path of totality runs along much of the Interstate 35 corridor and includes major cities such as Austin and Dallas.
The overall pattern for the state of Texas is such that we’ll be under a generally southwesterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and this will transport a lot of moisture that will result in high clouds as well as possibly a layer of lower clouds. Here are some city-by-city outlooks:
Houston: At the time of the solar eclipse, 1:40 pm CT, skies are likely to be 80 to 100 percent covered by clouds. It may be possible to see the eclipse with solar glasses at times during the nearly three hour period that the Moon moves in front of the Sun.
Austin/Central Texas: Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 70 to 90 percent range. Austin will see a total eclipse for 1 minute, 41 seconds. The odds of this moment being observable with clear skies is therefore fairly low. But it is not non-zero.
Dallas/Northern Texas: The outlook in northern Texas is a little better. Dallas will see the eclipse for 3 minutes and 50 seconds. Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 60 to 80 percent range, with at least a thin layer of upper clouds. Because of the longer duration of the eclipse, the chance of observing at least a few moments with a clear view of totality is therefore higher.
Since there are still a little more than four days until the total eclipse there remains some variability in the forecast. However, the outlook for Monday has been fairly consistent, so our confidence is increasing in this rather drab outlook for Texas during totality. In general, the rule is likely to be that the further north one goes in the state, the better. But only slightly better.
Thursday
It’s a shame the eclipse won’t be today, as we’re going to see crystal clear skies across Houston and much of Texas. With dry air in place we’re likely to see highs of around 80 degrees today, with light southeasterly winds. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than past nights, dropping to about 60 degrees.
Friday
Another fine, sunny day. Highs will be a bit warmer, likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. The air will still be reasonably dry, but humidity will be on the rise by Friday evening. Lows drop into the low 60s.
Saturday
The first half of the weekend will see at least some sunshine, to go with highs in the low 80s. One downside will be fairly pronounced southerly winds, gusting up to about 30 mph in response to an advancing front (which is likely to stall before reaching Houston). Lows on Saturday night will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.
Sunday
Skies will turn mostly cloudy, and we’ll see some isolated or scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Highs are likely to be in the low 80s. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but most of us should just see clouds. Lows remain warm on Sunday night.
Next week
As noted above, Houston should see mostly cloudy skies on Monday, and that pattern will continue into Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This period should bring us continued warm and humid air, as well as increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of accumulations we’re not looking at anything too crazy, but most of the area could see between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain. A weak front should arrive midweek to cool us off (a bit) and bring some clearer skies.
Bummer
No it’s fine. Don’t give 2 whits for moon in front of sun. Need rain. These clear blue skies are fine for 2 days. No more. The ridge is coming soon.
It’s a unique cosmic event and one of the rare things that makes humans pause for a moment, come together, and remember that we’re all a tiny part of something much, much larger.
You’re well within your rights to not care about it, but you’d do well to recognize that many people do.
Well said Toad.
“You’re well within your rights to not care about it, but you’d do well to recognize that many people do.”
It is very noble of you to accept that he is ‘well within his rights’ to have an opinion. 🙂
So nice of you to compliment him, I’m sure it makes everyone feel better too!
Dry springs are scary. Especially during fading El Nino’s and building La Nina’s…
I was cycling around Fredericksburg in the Hill Country last week and there were groves of dead trees everywhere. Last year’s drought hit that area very badly. So, yes, rain versus the eclipse if that is the choice.
I think you meant “not zero” when you wrote “The odds of this moment being observable with clear skies is therefore fairly low. But it is not non-zero.”
In any event, always love y’all’s posts.
I didn’t get my daily email today, 4/4. 😪
Miss it – 1st thing I do every a.m. after getting my coffee is read your forecast.
I’m thinking of staying home in Houston considering the weather and the traffic forecast for Austin.
I’m just going to keep hoping for a hole in the clouds in the right place. No regrets on starting my planning to be in the totality area a year ago!
I’ve been planning this since I got skunked in Nashville in 2017 with huge afternoon clouds blocking just as totality was happening. Everyone at the grassy area was dead silent as we missed seeing it. I was gutted. Had planned it for months as well. Coming from Seattle to Dallas ( and to have reunion with friend of 53 years in Granbury ) I don’t know if I can make it as the pet sitter has suddenly cancelled. If I can find another I will still fly down and hope for a hole in the clouds, too.