Thanksgiving week forecast coming into better focus, and it’s not bad

Last week, when I looked at the forecast for Thanksgiving week, there was not a whole lot to be thankful for. We had the potential for heavy rainfall on some of the busiest travel days of the year, and overall the weather simply promised a cornucopia of “meh” conditions. I’m happy to report that the outlook for this week has brightened, and that we should see as much sunshine as showers.

On a completely unrelated note, we’re in the last week of our annual fundraiser. We’re selling t-shirts, sweatshirts, and umbrellas, as well as accepting donations to support the operation of this site. We’ve had a tremendous response so far; so thank you to everyone who has contributed.

Monday

After a cold front slogged through the Houston region on Sunday, we’re seeing a chilly morning with temperatures ranging from about 40 degrees far inland to mid-50s along the upper Texas coast. Scattered showers have developed overnight, and these rains should continue on-and-off for much of this morning as upper-level winds support the upward movement of air at the surface.

Rains, for the most part, will be moderate, with accumulations of only a few tenths of an inch. They should end by this afternoon as this system moves from west to east. Temperatures will hang around the mid-50s today as skies will remain gray even after the rain departs to the east.

Tuesday

Higher pressure moves into the region—along with northerly winds that will bring additional cooler air—and this should begin to clear out our skies by Tuesday morning. Lows will again be in the 40s for most of Houston, but highs should get into the low 60s with the return of sunshine. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday

Another chilly morning in the mid-40s, but again mostly sunny skies should allow for temperatures to get into the 60s. Forecast models pretty consistently are showing a storm system moving across Texas on Wednesday, and we should feel the any associated effects from this later on Wednesday evening and during the overnight hours. Showers are likely, although accumulations for most areas should be under an inch.

Thanksgiving

For now, the models end the precipitation by Thursday morning, and we probably will see clearing skies for the holiday. Depending on how much sunshine is overhead, temperatures will slot in somewhere from the low- to mid-60s. Rain chances should be near zero.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend is less certain. Some models are advertising a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday—not ideal for shopping—while other models are dry. Overall, I think we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds from Friday through Sunday, with highs generally around 70 degrees. Saturday probably looks to be the nicest day, with mostly sunny skies. We’ll try to refine the weekend forecast by tomorrow or Wednesday.