Tracking more heavy rain for Sunday in the Houston area

Anyone who has lived in Houston knows there are basically two choices for weather during the months of July, August, and the beginning of September: Hot, sunny, and humid; or Warm, wet, and still humid. Houston has experienced both of these extremes already in July, with three days of highs in the upper 90s, followed by a day of 70s and heavy rain on the July 4th holiday. Over the next several days we’ll lean more toward the warmer and wetter variety, with an eye toward more widespread, heavier rainfall returning Sunday.

Friday

Storms have remained offshore this morning, and some slightly drier air has worked its way into the Houston region. However, as temperatures warm into the mid- to upper-80s later this morning, and the sea breeze gets going, I expect we’ll see some decent rain showers this afternoon, with a few heavy cells setting up (like we saw on Thursday, with a narrow, but heavy band of showers near Highway 288 and the South Sam Houston Tollway). I don’t expect significant problems. Look for highs around 90 degrees, or a bit warmer depending on how much sunshine your area sees this afternoon.

Saturday

I expect Saturday will be a lot like Friday, although with a few more clouds, and slightly reduced rainfall chances. The potential for heavier rainfall remains low, and any intense storms should be fairly scattered in nature. Highs in the low 90s.

Sunday

We have slightly more concerns about Sunday, when deepening moisture and slow-moving storms could lead to some flash flooding problems. We don’t expect widespread, prolonged issues, but some of these storms could quickly produce a few inches of rainfall, and cause some streets to become temporarily impassable. (We’ll update this weekend, if needed). The region’s bayous remain in pretty good shape, and the heavier showers should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Daytime temperatures, of course, remain dependent upon the extent of rainfall in your area. In general expect highs in the upper 80s.

Monday

Monday will also carry a risk of heavier showers, but we don’t think the chances are as high on Sunday. Highs around 90.

Tuesday and beyond

Higher pressure should move southward beginning at some point next week, probably around Tuesday, which will begin to limit shower activity. I don’t think storms are going to go completely away, but we’re going to see quite a bit more sunshine, and consequently high temperatures will work their way back into the mid- or possibly even upper-90s.

Tropics

In case you missed it (and I had, because I’ve been on vacation), the first Atlantic Hurricane has formed—Beryl, out in the open Atlantic Ocean.

This is a small hurricane, and most likely it will probably weaken before it reaches the Caribbean Sea. It’s way too early to say what effects this might bring to the Caribbean or United States, but we certainly see nothing right now to be particularly concerned about.