Tropical Storm may form in Gulf, but Texas to remain hot and dry

Hurricane season officially begins June 1, but you may have seen that the National Hurricane Center has identified a low-pressure system across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that could become a subtropical or tropical storm in three to five days as it moves northward (a 40 percent chance). Regardless of whether this system develops, it is going to mean a wet week for Florida and Alabama, and continued very dry weather for the greater Houston area.

Put another way, this tropical system is going to have zero effect on Texas. Also, if you’re concerned about what the formation of a tropical system before the actual beginning of hurricane season may mean—don’t be. These storms happen every two or three years, and there is little to no correlation between the development of a pre-season storm and that year’s overall activity in the Atlantic.

Monday through Friday

Sadly, we have an easy forecast for Houston. Although it’s still the middle of May—a time when we might be looking for one last, dying gasp from spring—our weather is going to be more July- or August-like this week with really no change. If this is what May is going to be like, I don’t know what to tell you about August.

High pressure is in control, and this will lead to warm days, with highs in the low- to mid-90s for inland areas, low 90s for Houston, and upper 80s along the coast. (Thursday and Friday will probably be the warmest days by a degree or two). Skies will be partly to mostly sunny during the daytime, with only the slightest chance of a light afternoon shower. Overnight temperatures will be warm.

Saturday and Sunday

I honestly don’t see too much of a change heading into the weekend, with more hot, mostly sunny weather, and only a slight chance of afternoon showers. It should be a good weekend for water sports activities.