In brief: Fall arrived this weekend, and our weather was certainly gorgeous. Now that we’ve taken the sting out of summer, is there anything to be done about our growing need for rainfall?
A dry fall
For much of the Houston region it has been a dry end of summer and start to fall. This is particularly the case for regions south and east of Houston, where meaningful precipitation has been extremely scarce. Over the last 60 days, since mid-August, most of this area has received well below 50 percent of its normal rainfall, and the last 30 days have seen almost nothing. Meanwhile some locations in the greater Houston region, such as the western part of the metro area, are probably thinking, what is this guy talking about it?
As a result of this, despite the shorter days, we have seen drought return to Houston. The majority of Brazoria county, as well as chunks of Liberty and Chambers counties, have sunk into a severe drought. Much of the rest of the metro Houston area has reached a moderate drought level. With virtually no rain expected over at least the next 10 days, I fear we could see more of Houston reach ‘severe’ drought status.
An El Niño weather pattern is supposed to bring generally wetter conditions across Texas during the winter months, and we are likely to end up needing it given the state of our soils heading toward November.
Monday
Skies will be partly sunny today, with winds shifting to come from the east. Expect highs in the upper 70s for the most part. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s. With dewpoints hovering in the 50s, the air will continue to feel pleasantly dry outside.
Tuesday
Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. It may feel slightly more humid, and overnight lows probably will only drop into the mid-60s.
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
As the flow turns more northeasterly we should see moderately warm days, in the 80s, with slightly cooler nights. Lows are to be determined, but I expect most of the region to drop down to around 60 degrees each night during this period. Skies will be mostly sunny.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend forecast looks warm-ish, with highs likely in the mid- to upper-80s, with mostly sunny skies. Nights should fall into the lower 60s. Dewpoints remain comfortable, such that Houston’s air is unlikely to feel too dry or too humid.
Next week
This pattern should continue into next week, after which time we may start to see a little more humidity. As for rain, which we discussed above, chances look minimal for the next week at least. Perhaps the next time to hope for something is the weekend after next; right around or just after Halloween. We shall see.
