With less than a week to go, sunny and cold conditions most likely for Houston marathon

Less than a week to go now until the start of the marathon, and we’re getting closer to nailing down the forecast, too. The global forecast models are coming into better agreement about the timing of a cold front — likely sometime on Friday or early Saturday morning. This would set up clear and cool conditions for Sunday morning.

Now the usual caveats apply, a forecast made seven days out is going to have some element of uncertainty. But both the European and Canadian models have been fairly consistent with this scenario, and now the GFS model has come into line. Therefore I am beginning to have a decent amount of confidence in colder-than-normal conditions for the morning of the marathon, with low temperatures that morning between 30 and 40 degrees, most likely.

Canadian model forecast for temperatures on Sunday, at 6 a.m. (Weather Bell)
Canadian model forecast for temperatures on Sunday, at 6 a.m. (Weather Bell)

If the timing of the front holds I would expect fairly light winds, although predicting that so far out is difficult, and clear skies. The forecast remains subject to change, of course, but right now it appears the marathon will occur in the wake of a fairly strong cold front.

Here, then, is my latest forecast for conditions on the starting line of the 2016 Houston Marathon.


Race-time temperatures will be below normal (30 to 40 degrees on the start line), and warming into the 40s by noon.

Confidence: Medium


If a cold front passes through on the Friday or Saturday before the Houston Marathon, conditions for the race should be dry, and likely sunny.

Confidence: Low-Medium


It is difficult to make any predictions about winds a week out, but right now I’d anticipate moderate winds, which would still make a cold morning very cold.

Confidence: Low-Medium

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Posted at 3:25 p.m. Sunday