Yes, winter is coming back. No, it’s not this week.

Two weeks into the new year, Houston’s average temperature of 58.7 degrees is nearly 6 degrees above normal. Just one day has recorded a below-normal temperature. This trend will continue until the weekend, but the last 10 days of the month look pretty cold, when Houston will fall back into a more winter-like pattern. There’s even a small—probably only about 10 percent—chance of snow.

Wednesday

The dense fog is back, and it probably will require until mid-morning to burn off completely in some areas. It’s also ridiculously warm, with lows only falling to about 70 degrees this morning, putting us at risk of setting records for high-minimum temperature. The good news is that we’re unlikely to see rain today, and like on Tuesday afternoon there may even be a few breaks in the clouds. I think we could all do with a bit of sunshine? High temperatures this afternoon will get up to near 80 degrees, although the final mark will depend upon how much sun we actually get. Lows Wednesday night will once again only fall into the mid- to upper-60s with more fog.

Thursday and Friday

Unless you live north of about Highway 105, these days will probably be about the same, with mostly cloudy skies, a chance of light rain, and highs in the low- to mid-70s. Sometime on Thursday evening, a weak front will approach the northern reaches of the Houston metro area before washing out. For northern areas, this will bring a brief respite of slightly cooler and drier weather.

Saturday

A stronger front will approach the region on Saturday, but likely won’t begin to modify temperatures in Houston until Saturday evening. Thus we’re likely to have one more warm, cloudy, muggy day. The front may bring a light chance of showers, but we’re not expecting any heavy rain at this time. The front will bring an immediate change in temperatures and knock out the humidity. Lows Saturday night will probably fall into the upper 40s for most of the area except the coast.

Sunday

Hello, runners! Can you imagine running in this soup if the front weren’t on the way? Just brutal. So, are you ready for the Houston Marathon? I’m looking forward to this year’s run, and all the amazing signs that spectators make along the way to keep us going. Some of us sure need the help.

Start line temperatures will most likely fall somewhere in the upper 40s, with low dewpoints all day helping to cool us down. At this point, I expect clear skies for most, if not all of the day, with noon-time temperatures in the mid-50s. We’ll definitely notice the winds, which likely will be out of the north-northeast at 10 to 15 mph. All in all, these will be near ideal conditions for a long run. Good luck! Low temperatures Sunday night should fall into the low 40s for most of the region.

Next week

Most of next week looks cold, with highs generally in the 50s, and lows in the 30s to 40s, and a mix of clouds and sunshine. The slight chance of snow I mentioned at the outset will likely come in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, when we see the coldest air. However, the most likely scenario is that the coldest air is going to get shunted east of the Texas coast, so while we should be decidedly cold, I’m not sure the region is going to see a freeze. Still plenty of time to watch things, however.