After a chaotic week of weather, Houston will face gradually face somewhat more benign conditions as we head through the weekend. First, we have to get through the potential for showers & storms today and possibly Saturday. That will be followed by quite a breezy day on Sunday.
Today & Saturday
Fog this morning is pretty dense over most of the region, and dense fog advisories are posted basically along and south of Highway 105. Use a lot of caution out there this morning.
The fog will lift later this morning, so we should see a little sunshine. Clouds sneak back in this afternoon. The big question then becomes where showers or storms develop. I want to show you two pieces of data that we’re looking at. This is a forecast radar for 6 PM this evening. The HRRR model is on the left, and a model run by Texas Tech is on the right. Click to enlarge.
Weather models are out of sync this evening, leading to a somewhat lower confidence forecast. (Weather Bell/Texas Tech)
The HRRR (left) indicates the warm front in the Gulf may get all the way to I-10, helping to fire up thunderstorms this evening. The WRF (right) has the front falling just short and keeps most storms near the coast or over the Gulf. Given the uncertainty, the SPC has the eastern part of the region in a “marginal” risk for severe thunderstorms.
Best severe weather risk should stay east of the area today, but it will be a somewhat close call. (NWS SPC)
My feeling is that the HRRR may be overdoing things a bit, but it’s a close call. I am apt to prefer this SPC map and say the best chance for storms remains south and east of Houston later today. We will update you if that changes, but definitely have an umbrella handy today to be safe.
On Saturday, it actually looks fairly quiet. With a strong system developing to our northwest, we could see a few showers or storms, but any legitimate severe weather risk looks to stay well east of the Houston area, in Louisiana. Temps will peak in the mid 70s both days, with lows in the low 60s tonight.
(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month) Read More…