In brief: After Monday Houston’s weather will turn to a much wetter pattern that is likely to persist for at least a week, if not longer. We are holding off issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for now, but it is something we’re going to be watching closely in the coming days.

Our pattern is a changin’

The atmosphere above Houston will turn unsettled this week in the absence of high pressure, and with a large scale pattern that will send a series of disturbances into the region through the weekend. When you add in a stalled frontal boundary and very high levels of moisture, you get a recipe for rainfall, and potentially lots of it, through the weekend.

Here’s what we know: The overall pattern will support the development of widespread showers beginning later on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and persisting through the coming weekend. Most of the region is likely to pick up between 3 and 5 inches of rainfall, but there are almost certainly will be some bullseyes above 5 inches as rainfall totals stack up. For now we are going to hold off issuing a Stage 1 flood advisory, but that may well be coming in a day or two as rainfall totals begin to stack up later this week.

What about severe weather? A weak front is likely to approach Houston, and possibly push into the area on Tuesday evening or overnight. If this happens it could trigger some stronger thunderstorms, some of which become severe in terms of damaging winds and possibly hail. The timing for this is still uncertain, but potentially it could impact the commute home on Tuesday evening or the later hours.

This wet pattern is likely to persist through the weekend, and possibly into early next week.

Monday

If you’re wondering when it won’t rain this week, today is a good bet. I think we’ll see some isolated showers today, but overall our skies should mostly be cloudy. Even so temperatures are likely to push into the upper 80s, with plenty of humidity, so it will be a warm one. We are going to see those gusty southerly winds again, especially during the afternoon hours. They will die down overnight, with temperatures only falling into the upper 70s (at most) for much of Houston.

Tuesday

Rain chances should again be pretty low during the daytime on Tuesday, perhaps in the vicinity of 20 percent. We also will have a decent chance at seeing a bit of sunshine during the midday hours, probably our best shot at clear skies for the rest of the week. This will help temperatures once again rise into the upper 80s. The uncertainty will come later in the day when a front approaches the area from the west. This will bring a line of storms with it, but at this time it is not clear that the front will push into the city of Houston, or all the way down to the coast. So while there is a chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms during Tuesday evening or Tuesday night in and around Houston, I am not fully committing to it. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be prime time days for widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms. Daily rain chances, for pretty much the entire area, will be on the order of 80 percent. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Again, for now we’re holding off on flood alerts, but we are going to be closely monitoring rainfall totals and a changing forecast. To be clear, for now we expect things to be mostly fine in terms of driving condition most of the time, but we’re just going to have to see. Highs will be in the low- to mid-80s, with overnight lows in the mid-70s. Mid-may could certainly be hotter, so there’s an upside to the showers.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

This general pattern is going to persist into the weekend. If I squint, it’s possible that we could see daily rain chances come down to something like 60 percent. But I don’t have much confidence in that. Highs will remain in the low- to mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. At this point the pattern does not look to change too much next week. Rain chances may come down a bit. We may have some partly sunny and slightly warmer days. But overall the possibility of rain remains in the forecast. Happily, it appears that Mother Nature is preparing to wipe all vestiges of drought from our area before we get into summer proper.

In brief: After the hottest day of 2026 in Houston, we expect a quiet, less hot but more humid weekend. Rain chances then pick up next week with potentially locally heavy rainfall in spots by midweek.

Yesterday was our hottest day of the year in Houston, as we officially hit 91 degrees at Bush Airport. Lest anyone wonder if IAH is too overcooked, a CenterPoint sensor adjacent to the airport hit 90 degrees, so the answer is probably not. Hobby Airport also hit 91 degrees. That’s our 5th 90 degree day of the year. Early summer is here.

Today

We have a shot at pushing 91 again today, though I think we may come up just a tinge short. Dewpoints and thus humidity are a bit higher today.

We also have a few extra clouds streaming through the area today. Either way, we are quibbling. It should feel fairly similar today to yesterday.

Weekend

Saturday looks fine. Sunday could see an isolated shower but nothing that would significantly disrupt your plans. You will notice the breeze this weekend. Onshore winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are possible on both weekend days as more humid air continues to rush ashore. High temperatures will probably come up short of 90 degrees, with mostly upper-80s expected. Cloud cover will be noticeable on both days, along with breaks of sunshine.

Next week

Expect a more active weather week next week. A pretty substantial plume of moisture in the atmosphere is going to extend from Texas, across the western Gulf, and into Central America. Some of this moisture plume actually extends back into the eastern Pacific too. So, we will have plentiful moisture in place to support potentially heavy rainfall in spots.

The question we can’t answer this far out is where the triggering will end up. Will it be mainly in interior Texas? Louisiana? Here in Southeast Texas? We don’t know just yet, but there are plenty of signals in the modeling that 1 to 2 inches of rain or more will fall next week across the region. Isolated higher amounts would be almost guaranteed in this type of pattern. Bottom line: It’s too early to say exactly who will see the most rain next week, but there is an increasing chance that some parts of the area will receive locally heavy rainfall, especially next Tuesday or Wednesday. More to come on this.

The rain will hold back daytime temperatures a good bit, with highs mainly in the 80s but the moisture and clouds will hold lows in the mid to upper-70s. May the foggy glasses when you step out of the car commence.

In brief: Today should be the hottest day of the next week or so in Houston, with low 90s possible. Then, as humidity and clouds pick up some, we’ll see warmer mornings and slightly lower daytime highs. Rain chances pick back up on Monday. Plus, a special honor for SCW in today’s post!

Special thank you

Eric and I want to extend a special thank you to the City of Houston and specifically Council Member Abbie Kamin for honoring Space City Weather during yesterday’s City Council meeting with a proclamation recognizing our work. I (Matt) also want to extend a special thank you for a separate recognition on the occasion of my departure from Houston this summer.

This remains bittersweet for me personally, but I think I can speak for Eric when I say that we are grateful for the recognition. We’d be remiss not to also recognize Lee Hutchinson who has been critical to making sure the site stays up and running day in and day out, Dwight Silverman who has been an idea factory, mentor, and a big part of helping us manage our app, and Hussain Abbasi who actually built, maintains, and upgrades the Space City Weather app. It takes a village as they say, and that’s a huge part of our village.

We do what we do because we love our community and we love weather. And by some twist of fate, hard work, trust, and you, our readers, Space City Weather has become what it is. And the mission continues. Thank you again for the honor yesterday.

The quick and dirty

As Eric noted yesterday, the weather is very toasty and quiet right now, so there’s not a whole lot to say about the next few days. Expect sun, clouds, highs near 90, and increasing humidity. Today will probably be the hottest day of the next week, with perhaps a 91 or 92 being achieved. Then we shift toward more of an 88 to 90 type day/70-75 type night pattern into the weekend as a few extra clouds show up. We may see some added haze as well.

There is an air quality alert for ozone again today. When you get sunshine like we have ongoing, it tends to lead to a chemical reaction with pollutants near the ground to produce ground ozone. That will be our issue today, so if you have respiratory ailments, take it easy today, especially in the mid-morning and late afternoon.

What’s next?

Our next real rain chance is probably not until Monday, though we can’t entirely rule out a shower on Sunday or Sunday night either. Then we should settle into a more unsettled pattern next week with highs near or below normal (80s) and morning lows near or above normal (70s). Storm chances may peak Wednesday or Thursday but never completely shut off. More on this tomorrow.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s sunny weather this week, and a splash of lower humidity before sultry conditions return this weekend. Rain may return by Sunday night or Monday.

Real talk, y’all

There is no shortage of inclement weather in Houston, from hurricanes to freezes, and heavy rainfall to deep summer heat. But at other times our pattern is calm and fairly predictable. This is one of those times. I’m not saying you should not read Space City Weather for the next day or two, but if you wanted to take a break it would not be the worst idea in the world. Houston’s weather pattern is fairly calm in the coming days, and in terms of confidence I don’t expect the forecast to change too much.

Wednesday

We are seeing another pleasantly cool morning across Houston, with temperatures in the upper 60s in Houston, and even cooler the further northeast one travels. Don’t get used to this, because are lows are going up big time this weekend. But for now, it is really rather pleasant. With light northwest winds, sunny skies, and moderately dry air our high temperatures this afternoon will rise to about 90 degrees, or even a touch above. Temperatures will cool down this evening, with lows tonight probably dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston, with conditions a touch cooler for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be a day a lot of like Wednesday in all but one respect: winds. They’re going to veer from the west to south, and this will be the beginning of the onshore flow. Afternoon winds may gust up to 20 or 25 mph. Lows on Thursday night should drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Highs on Friday will be in the upper 80s for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies and breezy southerly winds. Lows will only drop into the low- to mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with the best chance for some clearing skies during the afternoon hours. Highs will generally be in the vicinity of 85 to 90 degrees for most locations, with plenty of humidity. Our nighttime lows will be quite a bit more sultry, in the upper 70s. Rain chances on both days will be about 10 percent, so pretty low overall. That may change by Sunday evening or night.

Next week

As the moisture levels pile up in our atmosphere and high pressure departs over the weekend, this will set the stage for higher rain chances during the first half of next week. I don’t feel too confident yet in accumulations, but after a warm and sunny week any precipitation will be welcome for most of us. In terms of temperatures, highs probably will hang out somewhere in the upper 80s before, possibly, a weak front pushes into the area by the middle of the week. Maybe. These things often tend to wash out before pushing all the way through Houston at this time of year.