In brief: Get ready for a wild ride in the temperature department. Houston will threaten our all-time November high temperature tomorrow before a cold front knocks 20 degrees off things for Sunday, followed by morning lows in the 30s and 40s. Don’t get too comfortable because 80s should return later next week.

Today & Saturday

The main story the next two days will be temperatures. Hot temperatures. Typical early November daytime highs are in the mid-70s. We’ll easily jump 10 to 15 degrees above that today and Saturday. Can we do our first official 90 degree November day on record? If I were in Vegas, I would take the under, but not by much. My guess is we hit 86 to 88 today and 87 to 89 tomorrow at IAH.

Upper air temperatures do support highs as close to 90 as we’ll ever see in November, so the chance is definitely there. Either way, it will be close to a record for the date (89 both days). Dewpoints crept back into the mid-60s on Thursday. Look for more of that today and tomorrow, with a chance for dews to get into the 70s (very humid) tomorrow night ahead of the front.

Sunday

The cold front itself should hit the Houston area between about 2 to 6 AM on Sunday, give or take. It will come with perhaps a handful of light showers, especially south and east of the city. But for the most part the only way you’ll know is by the increase in wind. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph, with a few 35 mph gusts as well are likely Sunday and Sunday night. This won’t be quite as windy as the front that hit us right before Halloween but you will notice it out there.

As far as temperatures go, Sunday will be interesting. We may see temps drop for a few hours on Sunday morning after sunrise before stabilizing and warming back to near 70 degrees Sunday afternoon. Either way, it will be roughly 15 to 20 degrees cooler on Sunday than it will be Saturday, so break out the pumpkin spice latte. Have some weight to stabilize your Texans tailgate canopies in the breezy conditions and perhaps a light jacket before the game against the Jags. It’ll be sunny otherwise.

Monday and Tuesday

More sun Monday and Tuesday. It appears that the coldest morning will be Tuesday, with the best combination of clear skies and light winds.

We should see numerous 40s everywhere on Monday and then 40s with many upper-30s peppered in on Tuesday morning. Tuesday’s record low of 32 degrees seems comfortably safe for Houston, but a few spots could push the freezing mark well outside of the Metro area. Highs on Monday may not even get much past 60 degrees in spots. Time to get up the Christmas lights.

Beyond Tuesday

If you thought this was it, that this was winter arriving for the season, Charlie Brown would like a word.

You are probably going to be surprised to know that high temperatures may push back into the low to mid-80s by late next week. If they don’t hate you already, I assure you that your sinuses will hate you by next weekend.

In brief: In today’s post we explore the very warm highs of the region’s forecast, including the potential for an unprecedented 90-degree day in November. After heat on Friday and Saturday the region will experience a sharp cool down as a front arrives to push lows down to around 40 degrees.

90 in November?

In its long history Houston has never recorded a temperature of 90 degrees, or higher, in November. This is because days are shorter, the Sun angle is lower, and generally we are seeing regular fronts that bring cooler air into the region. However due to a combination of uncharacteristic warmth and compressional heating, it is possible that we could hit 90 degrees on Friday or Saturday at the city’s official monitoring station at Bush Intercontinental Airport. It will be close, and we’ll be monitoring things.

Houston may hit 40 degrees on schedule this year

Conversely, our region is forecast to have its coldest nights of the season, so far, next Monday and Tuesday mornings. There is a decent chance, probably at least 50 percent I would guess, that the city’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport will hit 40 degrees. Naturally, being a weather nerd, I wondered whether that was early. So I checked the data. Answer? It would be, if only slightly. Based on data going back to 1889, the average date of the city’s first 40-degree (or cooler) temperature reading is November 13th. (Next Monday is the 10th, and Tuesday is the 11th).

Thursday

We are seeing fog develop across the region this morning, and the National Weather Service has issued a dense fog advisory through 9 am. Please take care driving. This is due in part to very light winds and temperatures and dewpoints being an identical 60 degrees in many locations. When the fog clears we will have a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-60s, and dense fog may very well return early on Friday.

Friday and Saturday

These will be sunny and hot days. The National Weather Service presently forecasts a high of 88 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Friday, and 89 degrees on Saturday. We’ll see if we hit that historic 90-degree mark. Friday night will be warm, with temperatures in the mid-60s. I expect the front to arrive sometime between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, bringing drier and cooler air into the region. At this point I don’t anticipate much, if any precipitation with the front.

Sunday

A breezy and cooler day with clear skies. Expect highs around 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty, especially during the middle of the day with maximum gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the low 40s on Sunday night, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Monday

A chilly day, with highs perhaps topping out in the lower 60s. Winds will die down. Lows on Monday night will drop to around 40 in the region, with inland areas seeing the 30s.

The rest of next week

After the cold start to Veteran’s Day, we will see a gradual warmup, with highs likely returning to around 80 degrees by Wednesday, and remaining on the warm side into the weekend. Rain chances look low. Another front is possible later next weekend, but our overall confidence in the forecast is low.

In brief: Houston’s forecast remains more or less the same, with warming days and nights heading into the weekend, followed by a sharp cooldown on Saturday night. This front will be relatively short-lived, but bring two cold nights into the region.

Wednesday

Lows are about 10 degrees warmer this morning, but this will still be our coolest morning until Monday, probably. Winds are calm, but will be southerly later this morning, indicating the ongoing return of the onshore flow. Highs will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Skies will be mostly clear today, and remain so for pretty much the rest of the week as high pressure dominates. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 60s, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

A similar day to Wednesday, although the southeasterly winds may be slightly more pronounced, and humidity levels a touch higher. Highs, again, will be around 80 degrees, or just a bit warmer. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday

These will be warmer days, especially for early November. Expect highs in the mid- to upper 80s across the region, with mostly sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel humid, but not super sultry like the summertime in Houston. Lows will drop into the 60s on both nights, although areas north of I-10 may see cooler temperatures later on Saturday night. That’s because I think the front will reach our northern areas on Saturday evening or night, and push off the coast by around sunrise. This looks like a dry passage, although winds should pretty rapidly shift to come from the north.

Sunday

This will be a breezy, sunny day with highs likely topping out in the lower 70s. Temperatures on Sunday night will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Monday

We are going to see ideal cooling conditions on Monday and Monday night, with lighter winds. Expect highs to perhaps only reach the low- to mid-60s. As for Monday night, temperatures should drop into the 30s to the north of Houston, with a few areas (i.e. Trinity and Polk counties) near but not within the Houston metro area flirting with a light freeze. In Houston itself I think temperatures remain in the vicinity of 40 degrees, but this is likely to be the region’s coldest night of the season.

The rest of next week

Tuesday is likely to bring highs of around 70 degrees before we return to temperatures of around 80 degrees for the rest of the work week. As for rain chances, they’re very low, to zero, for the next 10 days.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s very straightforward forecast, and look ahead to a front this weekend that will bring some (potentially) significantly colder air.

Overall pattern is set

Houston’s forecast is pretty much set for the next week or so. In fact, I would forgive you if you left off checking Space City Weather for a day or two. Really, the only major question I have right now is just how cold temperatures will get early next week, after the arrival of a front next week. The city’s coldest temperature of the fall season, so far, was 47 degrees on Halloween morning. At this time I bet we get colder than that.

Before then we are going to see a gradual warm-up this week, from lows this morning in the vicinity of 50 degrees to lows in the mid-60s this weekend. With high pressure dominating we are going to see mostly sunny to full-on sunny days. We’ll also see gradually more humid air, although nothing oppressive like the region experiences during summer. The front likely arrives on Sunday morning, some time.

Tuesday

Today is going to be an exceptional day, with sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 70s. East winds will shift to come from the south, although remaining fairly light. This is the beginning of the onshore flow, although it will take some time for atmospheric moisture levels to rise. Accordingly humidity will still remain fairly low today. Lows tonight will be warmer, dropping to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Over this period our daily high temperatures will gradually rise, from about 80 on Wednesday to the mid-80s by Friday (some areas further inland may push into the upper 80s). Really not much more to say. A couple of afternoons may have some wind gusts up to 15 mph. Evenings and mornings won’t be particularly cool, but it will be mild and pleasant to be outside. I’ll be enjoying them.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will bring more warm weather, not unlike Friday. The models have become a little faster with the timing of the front this weekend, and it now looks as though it will come through on Saturday night or Sunday morning. I’ll remain in the “to be determined” camp until there’s some consistency. At this point I think the front will be a dry passage, so I expect a lot of sunshine on Sunday. Look for highs in the upper 70s, probably? I think conditions will be fairly windy, with northerly gusts up to 25 mph, maybe. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, but I’m writing that in pencil.

Next week

At this point I’m leaning into a “short and sharp” characterization of this front. Matt and I had a little discussion this morning about whether this could be described as an “Arctic” front, as it will be bringing a nose of significantly colder air into the eastern half of the United States. I’m going with a “whiff” of Arctic air, because I do think things could get pretty chilly on Monday night. Houston proper probably holds in the 40s somewhere, but I could see upper 30s for inland areas. It depends on how much of the colder air is pushed due south into Texas, or whether it is shunted off more to the east of us. Anyway, there’s the potential for some rather chilly conditions early next week. I do think temperatures will moderate pretty quicky by Tuesday night or Wednesday, however.