In brief: Today will be mostly sunny, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s, and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon or evening. However an advancing front tonight will likely trigger widespread storms.

Happy Mother’s Day! I hope moms everywhere are being spoiled today. I am spoiled with a great mom, a wonderful wife and mother of our two daughters, and an amazing mother-in-law. Raising children is not easy, but these moms have all done a great job.

Fortunately, for most of today, the weather will be just fine to celebrate our mothers. After a cloudy start we are seeing clear skies, and sunshine will prevail for the rest of the day. It will get fairly warm, with highs across Houston generally ranging from 85 to 90 degrees this afternoon.

Some of this heating is due to compression, which is driven by an advancing front. This will provide a focus for increased storm activity later today and tonight. By late afternoon or early evening I expect to see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the northern half of the region, and some of these storms could become severe. Threats include damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and possibly a tornado. For most of us, however, things should remain fairly calm.

By around midnight, give or take, we should see a more well defined line of storms form to the northwest of Houston (i.e. Brazos Valley and College Station area). This line of storms will then move fairly quickly from the northwest to southeast, pushing off the coast by or before sunrise on Monday. We are fairly confident that this line of storms will hold together for areas northwest of Houston, and probably all the way down to the Interstate 69/Highway 59 corridor in the city. After that it may weaken as it approaches the coast (or maybe not).

Regardless, you should be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather overnight. Since this is not a slam dunk, we are only going to a 7 out of 10 on our excitable dogs scale. But if things line up, the thunder, lightning, and wind from these storms may jolt you awake tonight. Again we are concerned about hail and damaging wind gusts, although we cannot rule out a tornado. In terms of rainfall, since the storms will be fairly progressive, most areas should see 1 inch or less, although there will likely be some higher bullseyes.

Much calmer weather will arrive by Monday morning, and prevail through much of the week.

In brief: After a few calmer days, the potential for rainfall, and possibly some stronger thunderstorms, returns to Houston on Friday and Saturday. The storms will be hit or miss, but worth looking out for. Expect hotter and sunnier conditions on Sunday before a slightly cooler start to next week.

Overall setup

The atmosphere will become more favorable for showers and thunderstorms beginning today, with plenty of moisture and a series of disturbances. But unlike some of our recent rainy patterns, this one will produce much more scattered activity rather than widespread activity. Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to as showers and thunderstorms could become briefly intense. In terms of rainfall accumulations, I think they will be widely variable, with some locations picking up a tenth of an inch or two, and others up to an inch or two of rainfall. Bottom line: rainfall and storm disruptions are possible on Friday and Saturday, but they are far from guaranteed.

Friday

Conditions today will be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, and light winds mostly from the southeast. We are seeing some storms north of Houston this morning, in places like Brenham, Navasota, and Willis. Some of our high-resolution modeling indicates the focus of this activity will shift to the south of I-10, closer to the coast, later today. I’m making no predictions with confidence. Rain chances continue overnight, with lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday

Rain chances on Saturday are, again, about 50 percent area-wide for much of the daytime and into the evening. We should see a little more sunshine, and this probably will allow high temperatures to reach the mid-80s. If you have outdoor plans they could be perfectly fine, but you should have a back-up option in case showers and thunderstorms quickly roll in. Rain chances slacken a bit overnight, heading into Sunday morning.

Sunday

Skies on Sunday should be mostly sunny, and this will be a warm to hot day in the upper 80s for the region. A few inland locations may touch 90 degrees. Rain chances are about 10 percent during the daytime, but will increase a bit later on Sunday evening and overnight as a weak front approaches the area.

Next week

The first half of next week will see moderately cooler and drier weather, with high temperatures in the mid-80s and low temperatures in the mid-60s. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny and the humidity will be slightly lower. This is by no means chilly weather, but compared to what is coming soon with Houston’s summer, it won’t be unpleasant at all—especially mornings and evenings. Houston probably will get back into the upper-80s by the middle of next week with more humid conditions. Overall, rain chances look to be pretty low until at least the end of next week.

We’ll be back with you on Monday morning, unless storm activity today or Saturday becomes more widespread and intense than we presently anticipate, in which case we’ll keep you updated.

In brief: We’re continuing to struggle with the details for the forecast this weekend. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Saturday, but they’re far from a slam dunk. Sunday looks sunny and warmer.

Thursday

A weak front has pushed into Houston, and as a result we’re seeing slightly cooler conditions this morning. Some outlying areas, such as Conroe, are in the low 60s while most of the rest of the region has dropped into the mid- to upper-80s with slightly drier air. This is about the maximal extent of the front, which will eventually drift back onshore. Conditions overall today will be fair, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and modestly lower humidity. Rain chances are near zero. Winds shift from northeast to easterly later today, so we can expect a warmer night, with lows perhaps dropping only to 70 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

The front will essentially move back onshore and serve as a focus for rainfall, some of it possibly heavy, on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. It’s not a slam dunk, however. In fact I think there’s a solid chance of a busted forecast, which if you’ve been reading my daily updates all week, you know I’ve been struggling to make sense of the data.

Most likely, what I think will happen is that we will see scattered showers on Friday. Then, possibly on Friday night or early Saturday, a more organized round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, followed by more scattered showers during the daytime on Saturday. But am I confident in this forecast? I am not. I could easily see most of Houston picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Saturday night, and I could easily see most of Houston picking up 0.1 to 0.3 inches of rain during this period. Severe weather appears to be a low-end possibility, so I’m not really concerned about that. Fortunately Matt is on the schedule to write Friday morning’s update, and it will be his responsibility to sort all of this out for us.

As for temperatures, humidity levels will recover quickly, but clouds should limit high temperatures. I think we’re looking at highs near 80 degrees on Friday, and a little warmer on Saturday.

Sunday

Following a string of cloudier weather, we’re pretty confident that this will be a warmer and sunnier day. Most of the area can expect to reach the upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies. Winds look light. For outdoor activities this weekend, Sunday looks to be the day. Lows on Sunday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Monday and beyond

This should be another partly to mostly sunny day, with a weak front moving into the area (this probably will not bring too much rain with it, if any). Highs should be in the mid-80s. Lows on Monday night could drop into the 60s. Most of next week likely will see highs in the 80s, with partly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Overall rain chances appear to be fairly low but they could rise as we get toward, or into next weekend.

In brief: We’ve had a lot of questions about weather for this upcoming weekend, and the forecast keeps changing. We explain why. At this point there appears to be a solid chance of rain on Saturday and sunnier and hotter conditions on Sunday. But no promises!

Why is the forecast uncertain?

There are some patterns, such as high pressure in the summer, that allow us to confidently forecast conditions in Houston out to 10 days, at least. Similarly, in the winter-time, we can pretty clearly see when cold fronts are going to arrive and then depart the region out a week or more. However there are other times when the overall picture is murkier, and this week is one of them.

At present, generally, we have low pressure overhead or nearby, which is conducive to stormier patterns. We also have ample moisture at the surface, as you can tell if you step outside and feel the humidity. However this is not a slam dunk for precipitation, as we have pockets of drier air higher up in the atmosphere. Moreover there is a capping inversion (we discussed this more in our recent Q&A) that could inhibit what would otherwise be a stormy afternoon today.

If you add this all up you have a low-confidence forecast and a frustrated meteorologist.

Wednesday

So … today. We’re starting out warm and muggy, and we’re going to get warmer, as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s even with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a slight, perhaps 20 or 30 percent, chance of showers throughout the daytime across the region. By this afternoon, ahead of a front, we may see some stronger thunderstorms. Emphasis on maybe. If the cap holds, there won’t be much. If it breaks, we could see severe weather with hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. I expect the capping inversion to win out, but be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather this afternoon or evening, especially in Montgomery County and points north. A weak front pushes into the area this evening, bringing somewhat drier air after midnight. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

Whereas Thursday once looked to be fairly rainy, it now does not. I’d say there is maybe a 20 percent chance of mostly light showers, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees and plenty of cloud cover. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the upper 60s, with an ongoing chance of light rain.

Friday and Saturday

A low pressure system moves into the area on Friday, and this probably will serve as a focus for widespread rainfall. But again, there is some real uncertainty here. I could see most of the region picking up about 1 inch of rain, or I could see a scenario in which showers and thunderstorms are much more scattered. This system hangs around overnight and into Saturday, so there will be a healthy chance of rain overnight and for much of the day on Saturday. Again, these showers could be fairly scattered, or more widespread. The chance of severe weather is pretty low. Highs on Friday will be about 80 degrees, and by Saturday we’ll be into the mid-80s.

Sunday

The chance of showers does not go away entirely on Sunday, but it is much reduced. I think we’re also going to see a real chance for some sunshine on Sunday afternoon, so this should allow high temperatures to pop up into the upper 80s.

Next week

Monday looks pretty hot as well, but another weak front arrives on Tuesday (probably) to slightly cool us down and bring a modicum of drier air. Most of next week, at least before the weekend, should be rain-free.