In brief: In today’s post we discuss how Houston is about to settle into a persistently warm and muggy pattern for at least the next week, and probably longer. We also take a look at rain chances for Friday and the weekend, which are trending down.

Sultry April nights

Our weather is about to feel more like late May than early April. Daytime temperatures for the next week, at least, won’t be too abnormally warm, generally slotting into the 80 to 85 degree range. But our nights will be anomalously warm for sure. Typically we see lows down around 60 degrees for this time of year. But after this morning, with a low of 61 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, our nights will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, climbing potentially to the lower 70s by this weekend and beyond. This is indicative of a warm onshore flow and increasing moisture levels, and indeed there will be plenty of humidity. Will there be enough moisture for widespread showers? We discuss below.

Thursday

Our winds from the east are fairly light this morning, but they will pick up this afternoon, perhaps gusting up to about 20 mph. I expect some clouds, but for much of the afternoon partly to mostly sunny skies should prevail, allowing high temperatures to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. I don’t think we can entirely rule out some rain showers, but right now I would peg chances at about 10 percent, with only some fairly isolated activity. Clouds return tonight, with lows around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

Expect highs of around 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Overall conditions will be favorable for rainfall, but not perfect (I’m watching for some subsidence). In any case I think our region will have about a 50 percent chance of showers, with accumulations of less than 1 inch (and probably considerably less for most of us). Showers are most likely during the daytime hours, and fading during the evening and overnight hours. Expect another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see continued warm and muggy weather, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances for both days are likely on the order of 30 percent, but any rain that falls should not be in the form of sustained showers. Rather, this likely would be in the form of passing showers. Nights remain about 10 degrees above normal.

Next week

Most likely we will see a continued warm and muggy pattern next week, with temperatures perhaps rising to the mid-80s by Wednesday or Thursday. Our atmosphere will remain in a somewhat unsettled state, so we could see some increasing rain chances by the middle of the week, and possibly some severe weather. However, the bulk of this threat looks to remain to the west of us, and I cannot pin down any specific threat just yet. So it’s not something I’d be particularly concerned about right now. As for the region’s next front, I just don’t see any strong signal for that in the next 10 days. I’d very much love to be wrong about that.

In brief: In today’s post we celebrate the recent Artemis II lunar flyby, and look ahead to warmer and somewhat cloudier weather after today. Rain chances spike on Friday, but they won’t entirely go away this weekend.

Fly me to the Moon

I’m not sure I’ll ever look at the Moon the same way again. On Monday four astronauts—our friends and neighbors in Houston; Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—flew around the far side of the Moon (see images here). There they saw some incredible lunar geography (selenography in space talk), Earth setting behind the Moon, and a stunning eclipse of the Sun. I’m hoping this mission is breaking through to the broader public because this is an incredible crew, and it is delightful to see NASA daring to fly into deep space again. If we do this right, this is just the beginning of a long, sustained program to explore and settle on the lunar surface.

Wednesday

Back here on Earth, we are not going to see any eclipses, but we will see plenty of sunshine throughout the day. We are starting to see a more pronounced onshore flow, but dewpoints should hold in the 50s (read: drier air) through the afternoon before humidity shoots up later today. I expect high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Thursday

After today we’re going to see less sunshine for the next few days, but I don’t expect it to go away entirely. Highs on Thursday will again be in the range of 80 degrees, with a fair bit of humidity. Winds will blow from the east-southeast at about 10 mph with higher gusts. A few light showers will be possible during the daytime, but I don’t expect any real accumulations. Lows Thursday night will only drop to around 70 degrees. And that’s pretty much going to be our low temperatures for the next week, so get used to them.

Friday

This day will bring our best chance of rain for the week as an upper-level disturbance moves into the area and combines with a fairly moist atmosphere. The best chance of rain is likely to be southwest of Houston, so places like Fort Bend and southern Brazoria counties. However, I expect most of the area to see a healthy chance of rain, with much of us probably picking up between 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain through Friday night. Highs will be near 80 degrees with another muggy night.

Saturday or Sunday

I’m afraid we’re still playing the will-it or won’t-it rain game for this weekend game. A lot of our modeling indicates that the chances for showers will drop off considerably by Saturday morning, but I’m not convinced there will be enough high pressure in play to entirely shut off the spigot. I’m going to go with a 40 percent chance of showers on Saturday, and 30 percent on Sunday, and not feel great about the forecast. Regardless, I don’t anticipate heavy rainfall this weekend. Expect highs around 80 degrees with continued warm nights and partly sunny skies.

Next week

Most of next week looks to remain on the warm side, with highs in the low 80s, warm nights, and plenty of humidity. Rain chances are never going to go away, but they may be a little higher during the middle of the week as the atmosphere becomes a little more perturbed. We shall see.

In brief: We rate today as one of the 10-best weather days in Houston this year, combining low humidity, moderate temperatures, and clear skies. Please enjoy. We’ll warm up for the rest of the week, with likely rain showers on Friday, and uncertain conditions this weekend.

A top 10 day

Opinions on the best kind of weather in Houston vary: some like it a hotter, some cooler; some people enjoy sunshine, others are in the mood for a cloudier day. But in my opinion, the best weather comes when we have clear-ish skies, low humidity, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-70s. Today will be one of those days, one of the 10 best weather days of the year. We are going to fall into that combination of ideal conditions for a few hours this afternoon, just before the onshore flow really gets pumping. It’s going to feel beautiful outside, and part of that beauty for me is knowing that it won’t last. A warmer and much more humid spell begins later this week and it will persist at least into the middle of next week. So as ever in Houston, perfection in our weather is fleeting.

Tuesday

We are starting today with chilly conditions, with low- to mid-50s in Houston and cooler temperatures further inland, but we are going to warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will vary from the mid- to upper-70s with mostly sunny skies. Winds today will be from the northeast, at 5 to 10 mph, and gradually shift throughout the day to come from the southeast. Low temperatures tonight will fall to around 60 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland, and a bit warmer closer to the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

Both of these days should see high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Wednesday will start out with somewhat low humidity levels, but these will be on the increase throughout the day. Similarly, with sky cover, we’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies on Wednesday transitioning to partly to mostly cloudy skies on Thursday. Both days will carry a low-end chance for rain showers, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, and I would not expect much in the way of accumulations.

Friday

From Friday onward, at least through Wednesday or so of next week, I would not expect much change in our temperatures. Daily highs will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees to the mid-80s, with overnight lows only reaching 70 degrees. The air will feel fairly humid, but below what we experience during the summer in Houston. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. So that leaves the question of rain. Will it? The answer for Friday is, very likely yes. I think a majority of Houston will at least see some sprinkles, with a fair bit of the city seeing showers. We also cannot rule out some thunderstorms but right now that is not a major concern. I think accumulations will be greater to the southwest of Houston, in places like Fort Bend and Southern Brazoria County, but we’ll see. Most of us will probably see tenths of inches of rain rather than inches.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for this weekend remains uncertain. If we take an “average” forecast from the various models we probably are looking at a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the low 80s, and a fair amount of humidity. Each day, in this scenario, would have about a 30 percent chance of light showers. But there will be plenty of atmospheric moisture to play with, and while my base case is for a mostly rain free weekend, there is the possibility of more widespread showers, especially on Saturday. This is something we’re going to have to continue to watch and see.

Next week

Our warm and fairly humid weather continues next week. The first chance of a front, and I wouldn’t rate it very highly, does not arrive until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest. So for the most part we’re looking at partly to mostly cloudy days, with humidity, and highs in the low-80s-ish. I think we’ll see daily rain chances in the 20 to 30 percent range, but I don’t feel particularly confident in that. Bottom line: If you like clear, cooler, and lower humidity conditions, today is the day for you.

In brief: Houston is continuing to experience cooler conditions in the wake of a front, and indeed temperatures tonight are likely to be the coldest the region experiences for the next six months. Some rain chances return later this week, but I’m hopeful they won’t be too impactful for the weekend.

Cool interlude

We are continuing to see a cool, northerly flow this morning and our pleasantly dry air will persist for about two more days. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period, with low temperatures dropping into the 50 to 55 degree range for much of the metro area (except for the immediate coast), with some inland locations probably dropping into the upper 40s. Based on an expected warmer spell through the middle of April, I therefore expect this to be the coldest night not only of April, but probably for the next six months. Historically, we often don’t drop into the mid-50s, or lower, until at least mid-October. So open the windows and enjoy the ahhh that’s coming with this interlude of cooler and drier air.

Monday

Today is going to be a lovely day. Our skies will start out cloudy but should begin to clear out this morning before becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-70s for most locations, with a moderate northerly wind. With clear skies and light winds, conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling. This will allow temperatures to fall nicely tonight, with some exceptionally crisp air likely north and west of Houston. Also, a quick space update here: The Artemis II astronauts are flying around the Moon this afternoon! NASA will cover this live here.

Tuesday

Winds will shift to come from the east on Tuesday, but this will still be a fine, sunny day with highs likely in the upper 70s. As the moisture levels in the air creep up a little bit, our overnight low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, likely only falling to about 60 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our temperatures will continue to inch upward this week, with highs likely around 80 degrees, and overnight lows rising from the mid-60s on Wednesday night to around 70 degrees by Friday night. Each of these days should see a fair bit of humidity, along with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Each day will also have a chance of showers, with Friday appearing to have the best odds at this point (perhaps 40 or 50 percent area-wide) due to a passing upper-level disturbance. In terms of accumulations it’s too early to say too much, but we probably are talking tenths of an inch of rain rather than actual inches. We’ll see.

Saturday and Sunday

There’s a lot going on this weekend, including the Art Car Parade on Saturday. At this time I expect lower rain chances for Saturday and Sunday (perhaps 30 percent?) along with partly sunny skies. So a passing shower is possible, but right now I don’t think sustained rainfall is likely. Temperatures should be a bit warmer, with highs in the lower 80s and fairly humid air. Overnight lows this weekend may only drop to around 70 degrees. The bottom line is that this weekend should be mostly fine for outdoor activities, but I want to wait a day or two before having full confidence in the forecast.

Next week

Most of next week should have temperatures in the low 80s with fairly humid air as well. Things are a bit fuzzy, but at this point I expect a couple of more chances for showers next week, so hopefully we can continue to put a dent into our area’s drought conditions.