In brief: We discuss heavy rainfall north of Houston, and lesser accumulations in Houston. After this morning we’ll see a reprieve from showers, but starting Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll see decent chances for the remainder of the week. The weekend should see clearing skies and warmer temperatures, so the early beach outlook is favorable.

The boundary that produced significant rainfall overnight is exiting the area, but it has done its damage in terms of heavy rainfall to the north of Houston. Two areas, one from College Station to Madisonville, and another northeast of Huntsville, recorded 10 inches of rainfall during the last 24 hours. Some rivers and bayous in this area are likely to reach a moderate flood stage over the next day or so.

Closer to Houston, the high-water mark came near Baytown and Mont Belvieu, with a few areas recording 5 to 7 inches. Rainfall amounts were widely variable, as some areas of just west of Houston picked up less than half an inch. But all in all it was a wet night. Too wet for some areas, with ongoing flooding occurring north of Houston, but still some much-needed rain for most locations. The remainder of spring should be nice and green in our region.

Monday

The line of storms has moved well to the east of Houston this morning, but we’re seeing some lingering showers, and these could continue for coastal areas through the morning hours. Later today we’ll see clearing skies, and this is likely to be our best chance for guaranteed sunshine this week, at least until the weekend. One welcome change this morning is much lighter winds, which will blow today from the east-southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Highs will reach into the mid-80s, with a few locations popping into the upper-80s depending on sunshine. Rain chances remain low this evening and overnight, with temperatures dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The overall pattern remains unsettled this week, with the absence of a strong high pressure system. As a result we’ll see continued decent rain chances, on the order of 30 percent daily. I don’t expect anything too organized, and for the most part these should be scattered, garden-variety showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm, in the low 70s.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see a continued partly to mostly cloudy pattern to end the work week, but rain chances will inch up a bit. Again, I’m not expecting a deluge, but daily rain chances will likely be on the order of 40 to 50 percent. Accumulations should be greatest north of Houston. Look for highs in the mid-80s, depending on how much sunshine breaks through during the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will pick up a bit toward the end of the week, with some gusts of 20 or 25 mph possible.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances should diminish some this weekend, with a corresponding increase in sunshine. We’ll still see some clouds, but there probably will be more blue skies, and there appears to be only a slight chance of rain at this point. Look for highs in the 80s, perhaps upper 80s, with plenty of humidity to spare. All in all, a good pool or beach weekend for early May.

Next week

Could we see our first temperatures in the 90s next week? Quite possibly. The first full week of May looks fairly sunny, and fairly warm. We could see the onset of summer lite in Houston if current trends hold.

In brief: The good news is that the worst of the wind is over. We will still see strongish south-southeasterly winds today, but the gusts will be lower than on Saturday. And winds will certainly be much calmer on Monday. However, before that the region faces a decent chance of storms, including severe thunderstorms, particularly during the overnight hours.

At present there is a line of storms essentially along the Interstate 35 corridor. This system will move eastward today, but it will do so in fits and starts. And truth be told there is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of these storms due to a capping inversion, and how long it takes to break. (A capping inversion prevents warm air at the surface from rising, an essential element in the development of thunderstorms).

My best guess for what happens is that the greater Houston area sees scattered showers during the daytime today, with a few isolated thunderstorms. Nothing too impactful. Highs will reach the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Beginning later this afternoon locations such as College Station and Conroe will see a better chance of thunderstorms. During the late evening hours, which is to say probably a couple of hours before midnight, a larger mass of showers will develop to the north of Houston and then sag southward toward the coast, and eastward toward Beaumont. They’re likely to exit the Houston area by sunrise on Monday.

We’ll see the usual threats with these storms: heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and the potential for a few tornadoes. The threat for severe weather is greater for inland areas, where the capping inversion looks weaker, than it is the coast. But all of the area will have the chance to see some thunderstorms later tonight. In terms of rainfall, I expect totals to vary widely. Some areas may pick up as much as 3 inches or more, but most of the area probably receives 0.5 to 1.5 inch. A few coastal locations may remain dry. There’s big boom-bust energy tonight.

Monday should be warm, but mostly rain-free.

In brief: The word for the weekend is windy. We’ll see 30 to 40 mph wind gusts at times through Saturday, before things calm a bit by early next week. The weather will turn unsettled, with variable chances of daily showers and storms well into next week. We’ll likely see isolated activity today and slightly better rain coverage on Sunday and Monday.

Today

Hold on to your hats, folks. Wind gusts started picking up yesterday afternoon, up to about 30 mph or so. We will likely see that again today, perhaps most of the day this time. Wind will be the most noticeable element over the next few days. A few showers or even a thunderstorm are possible later this afternoon, with the highest chances north of Houston. Highs will be into the 80s once again.

A couple showers or even a thunderstorm will be possible into the first half of the overnight hours tonight.

Saturday

Saturday just looks like another windy, warm, humid day. Winds should be at their strongest on Saturday, with gusts as high as 35 mph or even stronger over the water.

Highs in the 80s, lows in the 70s.

Best of luck to any IRONMAN participants or MS 150 riders. We think Saturday will have that solid southeast or south-southeast (mostly) tail wind, at times 30 to 40 mph. For those less seasoned MS 150 riders, please exercise caution with some of the gusts you’ll experience.

Sunday and Monday

Winds will slowly subside on Sunday, but we should still see plentiful 20 to 30 mph gusts. It’s beginning to look as if a line of thunderstorms will develop in Hill Country in the predawn hours Sunday, sweeping east and southeast while weakening. They may fire back up as they approach the Houston area in the afternoon hours. Details on this are still somewhat TBD, but a couple hours of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are a good possibility anywhere in the area Sunday afternoon. Severe weather can’t be entirely ruled out, but it’s not highly likely for Houston.

This will be something to watch for MS 150 riders, as the storms could be better organized crossing I-35 and approaching the Brazos Valley and College Station. It will have to be a Saturday or Sunday gametime decision in all likelihood.

Monday will see additional chances at scattered showers and storms. Whether it’s hit or miss activity or something more widespread and organized remains to be seen.

Another round of highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s are expected both days.

Rest of next week

We will likely continue with daily shower and storm chances into next week. Some days will have better rain chances than others, but because there’s a lot of quick moving traffic in the upper atmosphere, it’s a little difficult to try and time when a disturbance will hit and produce storms here. The good news is that the severe weather risk continues to look mostly north of our area. We will continue with fairly stable temps and high humidity, with highs in the 80s and lows mainly in the 70s.

In brief: Houston is beginning the first of four days of warm and windy weather, with Saturday looking especially gusty. Rain chances start to increase on Sunday afternoon, with much of the region in line for a decent soaking to start next week. This post also briefly touches on the looming onset of an active hurricane season, which begins in a little more than a month.

A few notes on the tropics

The National Hurricane Center issued its first “special tropical weather outlook” of the year on Wednesday, concerning a low pressure system far out in the Atlantic Ocean. This system has virtually no chance of becoming even a subtropical depression, but it is a sign of things to come. We are just a little more than five weeks away from the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, but it would not surprise me to see a May storm this year given the warmth in the Atlantic tropics.

Another fairly influential group, at the University of Pennsylvania, issued its tropical forecast this week. The researchers predict a blockbuster season, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This seems preposterously high, but typically the Pennsylvania forecast predictions are reasonably accurate, and typically conservative relative to overall activity. It’s another reason for concern. Speaking of the busy forthcoming season, Matt and I want to thank Houston City Councilwoman Abbie Kamin for the shoutout at City Council on Wednesday. Finally, this is a tax-free weekend for purchasing hurricane supplies in Texas. Details here.

Thursday

We’ll begin to see stronger southerly winds today as pressure gradients tighten in response to lower pressures over the central United States. This will help to create a persistent southerly flow over the region through the weekend, and peaking on Saturday. Today, winds will blow from the southeast at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Skies should be mostly cloudy, with highs reaching the low 80s for most locations. Winds will continue overnight, with lows only dropping into the low 70s.

Friday

Another mostly cloudy and windy day. Highs might be a degree or two warmer than Thursday, with wind gusts possibly reaching 35 mph. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday afternoon and early evening, but I think these will be fairly scattered due to a capping inversion. For now I’d peg rain chances at perhaps 10 to 30 percent. Friday night will be warm again.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should see the strongest winds of the week, with south-southeasterly gusts up to 40 mph possible from the south. We should also see at least partly sunny skies, allowing highs to reach the mid-80s, and possibly the upper-80s for some locations. We covered the Texas Bike MS 150 in depth in yesterday’s post, and the forecast remains similar. If you’re participating in that, or the Ironman event in The Woodlands, be prepared for warm, humid weather and very strong winds from mid-morning through Saturday evening.

Sunday

Another warm and windy day, although gusts should be a bit lower, perhaps only reaching 30 mph from the south-southeast. Look for highs generally in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies giving way later to clouds. Beginning Sunday afternoon in the Houston area, in response to an upper-level system, expect to see rain chances increase across the area. Chances on Sunday will be greatest to the northwest of Houston, bust most of the region will probably see a smattering of rain on Sunday afternoon, evening, or overnight.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday will see a healthy chance of rain showers, although the details remain uncertain about amounts. I’m hopeful that much of Houston will pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches, which would be welcome given our drying soils this week. For the most part we can expect highs in the mid-80s to upper-80s later next week, with lows around 70 degrees. Humidity looks high all week. There could be a fair amount of sunshine. We’ll see.