In brief: Houston remains in a holding pattern this week, with rather warm temperatures but also some chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances likely increase this weekend, but our overall confidence in this is not yet super high.

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Our weather will be in a holding pattern, more or less, for the rest of the work week. Houston is falling between high and low pressure systems, and given the time of year our weather will continue to be hot and mostly sunny. However, with the lack of a dominant high pressure system, we will remain susceptible to seabreeze-induced showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Therefore, although the overall likelihood of rain in any one location is low, the probability of being able to go outside during the early evening hours and seeing lightning on the horizon is fairly high.

The pattern will shift a bit this weekend. On one hand high pressure from the west will become a little more prominent, but on the other it appears as though we will see a more pronounced flow of moisture into the atmosphere. The higher pressure favors lower rain chances, but the increased moisture levels favor higher rain chances. For now I’m leaning toward more widespread shower activity starting Saturday, but I’m about as confident in this forecast being locked down as I am in the play of the US Men’s Soccer Team goalie.

Tuesday through Friday

As noted above each of these days, at this vantage point, looks to be more or less the same. We expect high temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-90s across the Houston area, with a slight chance of rain showers. These daily rain chances are probably on the order of 20 to 30 percent. So a few parts of our region may pick up a quick inch of rainfall, whereas most locations see none. Also, these storms will be capable of producing lightning, so the ability to take cover is important.

With that said, for most of us, it will be mostly sunny most of the time. Low temperatures at night remain warm, only briefly falling below 80 degrees. Winds will generally be light, only picking up a little bit during the afternoon hours, with gusts up to 15 or 20 mph possible.

Saturday and Sunday

As noted above, we’ll see an increase in atmospheric moisture levels this weekend, and that could translate into more widespread shower activity. At this point I’m thinking daily rain chances are probably about 50 percent, but I want to caution that I still don’t feel confident yet in that prediction. Regardless, I do anticipate a few more clouds this weekend to go along with slightly lower temperatures.

Next week

Now we’re really in the dart throwing phase of the forecast. However at this point my guess is that we continue to see slightly cooler weather and better rain chances during the first half of next week. But of course “cooler” weather during July is a relative term. It’s still going to be plenty humid, as is always the case in Houston, in July.

In brief: Houston will see slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the start of this week, followed by hot and sunny weather for the remainder of the work week. More widespread rain chances return this weekend. Also, we discuss how the region is entering its warmest period of the year.

Steel thyselves, we have reached peak summer

Back in 1994 the Houston Rockets played the New York Knicks in the NBA finals. The new lead sports columnist for the New York Post, Wallace Mathews, wrote about visiting our city in June for the Rockets’ home games. Infamously, he wrote one column about the city, denigrating its lack of terrain, its cockroaches, and notably its heat and humidity. It ran under the headline, “THIS PLACE IS A HELLHOLE.”

I, personally, do not feel like Houston is a hellhole. I have lived here for three decades. I like to joke with people that Houston is the opposite of, “It’s a nice place to visit, but you wouldn’t want to live there.” Houston is, in fact, a nice place to live, but you wouldn’t necessarily want to visit here. At least not during the summer. And my goodness, I give a ton of credit to our World Cup visitors who arrived over the last month who managed to see the good things about our region as we were throwing torrential rain, pestilential hordes of mosquitoes, and humidity-so-thick-you-could-grab-onto-it at them.

Anyway, Houston’s heat can feel a bit like a hellhole sometimes. And alas, ladies and gentlemen, I am here to tell you we have reached that moment in the story. Starting on Tuesday, July 7, Houston’s nighttime “normal low” is 76 degrees. It will remain at that plateau until August 18 when it very slowly begins to fall. Our daily high temperature will still tick up a bit (it peaks from late July into the first two weeks of August at 96 degrees). Basically, we are staring at maximum summer for the next six weeks. Please clap.

Monday and Tuesday

To start this week we are going to see a continuation of the weather we experienced over the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. In the absence of high pressure, we will also see the possibility of showers and thunderstorms, some developing during the afternoon and early evening hours along the sea breeze. Overall chances are on the lower end, likely 20 to 30 percent each day, and rain totals will vary widely. But the possibility of a strong storm over your home is not zero. For example on Sunday evening, areas near Oak Forest received 1 inch or more of rainfall, whereas the vast majority of the region received nothing. Overnight lows will be sticky, likely falling only to around 80 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday

As high pressure builds over the region, our daily rain chances will fall back to around 10 percent each day. We will see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid- to upper-90s and warm, humid nights. Afternoon winds will be a bit more gusty from the south, up to 15 or 20 mph.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We should encounter a little more weakness in high pressure, and this will increase rain chances for the weekend. How high? It’s difficult to say with confidence, but right now I would ballpark chances at about 40 or 50 percent daily. Overall accumulations are difficult to predict with any accuracy at this point, but most areas are likely looking between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. With a few more clouds in the sky, we may bring daily highs down slightly, into the low- to mid-90s. So overall it will still be quite hot and sticky. Anyway, we’ll get a better idea of specifics for this weekend in a day or two.

Next week

Elevated rain chances may persist into next week before things dry off and heat up a little bit by Tuesday or Wednesday. There isn’t a super strong signal yet for our weather about a week from now—well, aside from the fact that we can count on warm and humid nights. It is that time of year.

In brief: Happy Fourth of July! We are jumping in with a short post to note the possibility of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. For most people the impact will be negligible, but a few locations may briefly see some stormy activity.

The Houston region (somewhat) unexpectedly saw a flurry of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday, with a few isolated areas picking up as much as 1 inch of rain. I don’t think conditions are quite as favorable today or Sunday, but I also don’t want anyone caught unaware. Especially because so many of us will be outdoors at BBQs, festivals, and other celebrations of this nation’s 250th birthday.

My expectation is that conditions this morning and into the early afternoon will be hot and sunny. However later this afternoon, mostly likely from 3 to 7 pm, we could see the development of some showers and thunderstorms. This will coincide with peak heating during the daytime, and a spark from the sea breeze. To be clear, my expectation is that most of the area will remain mostly sunny. But perhaps 10 to 20 percent of the region could see rain develop, and if it does there may also be thunderstorms. If this is the case please seek shelter. Anything that develops should be long gone before fireworks this evening.

Sunday looks more or less the same, possibly with even less coverage.

In brief: A short post today, with not much to say about the hot and sunny weather expected to persist through the holiday weekend. Mainly, we want to wish you a Happy Fourth of July, and the country an amazing 250th birthday.

Overall pattern

A decent chunk of the Houston area saw precipitation on Thursday, especially areas along and east of I-45. Friendswood was the big winner, with some areas picking up in excess of 2 inches. Atmospheric moisture levels have dropped back a bit, and with no triggers we are going to move back into a pattern of isolated showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Expect chances to be about 10 percent daily, with our region on the periphery of a potent high pressure system located over the eastern United States.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

These will be mostly sunny days with high temperatures generally in the mid- to upper 90s across the Houston region. Only coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler. Rain chances, as noted above, are probably around 10 percent, with the slightest chance of a sea breeze shower. Winds will generally be light, only picking up a little bit during the afternoon hours, at 10 to 15 mph. Lows will generally fall into the upper 70s. If you’re in town from Canada for the World Cup match on Saturday, rest assured that the football stadium has extremely good air conditioning. Moroccans may feel a little more at home.

Early next week

We may see some slightly better rain chances to start next week, with perhaps a 20 percent or so likelihood on Monday and Tuesday. But the overall, prevailing pattern should remain more or less the same with hot days and mostly sunny skies.

Later next week

There’s probably not a whole lot of change later next week. Best case scenario is we end up in a pattern where sea breeze showers are possible (i.e 30 percent daily). Probably the likelihood of rain will be lower. Our high temperatures will continue to sizzle in the mid- to upper-90s, a few degrees above normal for this time of year.