In brief: As Houston’s weather turns calmer on Monday, we take a brief look at what to expect when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off in three weeks. We also look ahead to mostly sunny skies and hotter temperatures later this week in Houston. The weekend looks fine.

Storms pass, check your calendar

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a front moved through the Houston region overnight, lighting up the sky with thunder and lightning. Rainfall amounts varied widely across the region, with some locations picking up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall and others virtually nothing. The bulk of this activity is now nearly all offshore, although there may be some lingering showers today, especially for areas south of Interstate 10 in Houston.

Also, of note, we are now three weeks from the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. We are going to have our official preview later this month, but this morning our companion website, The Eyewall, digs in to the data this morning and looks at what a strong-ish El Niño would mean for Atlantic hurricane season. One concern is that waters in the Gulf of Mexico, heading toward the start of this season, are significantly warmer than normal. This may offset some of the dampening effect that El Niño would otherwise have.

Monday

The vast majority of showers associated with the cool front have now moved offshore, and for inland areas this probably is the end of rainfall for today. However, for coastal areas a chance of showers will linger for much of today, even as skies turn partly sunny. Highs will likely reach the mid-80s this afternoon. Winds will be from the north, at 5 to 10 mph. This should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 60s tonight outside of the urban core of Houston, which will be a touch warmer. This is not “cold” weather by any means, but as we get deeper into May fronts become more scarce. As fronts become weaker they are best enjoyed outdoors during the morning and evening hours.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly sunny day with moderately drier air. Expect highs in the mid-80s and light northeasterly winds. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be a bit warmer.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

High pressure will build somewhat during the second half of the week, leading to partly to mostly sunny weather with warm temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Humidity rebounds as well. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower 70s in Houston. This is not summer yet, but we’re approaching its outskirts.

Saturday and Sunday

We may start to see some more cloud cover this weekend (not sure), but high temperatures should still solidly remain in the upper 80s. Lows will remain muggy, likely increasing to the mid-70s. After Monday Houston’s rain chances will be near zero this week, but they may start to creep back up by Sunday afternoon or evening. Anyway, most outdoor activities should be fine this weekend if you’re prepared to sweat.

Next week

Most likely Houston will remain on the warm and muggy side next week, with the change being that rain chances likely return at some point.

In brief: Today will be mostly sunny, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s, and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon or evening. However an advancing front tonight will likely trigger widespread storms.

Happy Mother’s Day! I hope moms everywhere are being spoiled today. I am spoiled with a great mom, a wonderful wife and mother of our two daughters, and an amazing mother-in-law. Raising children is not easy, but these moms have all done a great job.

Fortunately, for most of today, the weather will be just fine to celebrate our mothers. After a cloudy start we are seeing clear skies, and sunshine will prevail for the rest of the day. It will get fairly warm, with highs across Houston generally ranging from 85 to 90 degrees this afternoon.

Some of this heating is due to compression, which is driven by an advancing front. This will provide a focus for increased storm activity later today and tonight. By late afternoon or early evening I expect to see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the northern half of the region, and some of these storms could become severe. Threats include damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and possibly a tornado. For most of us, however, things should remain fairly calm.

By around midnight, give or take, we should see a more well defined line of storms form to the northwest of Houston (i.e. Brazos Valley and College Station area). This line of storms will then move fairly quickly from the northwest to southeast, pushing off the coast by or before sunrise on Monday. We are fairly confident that this line of storms will hold together for areas northwest of Houston, and probably all the way down to the Interstate 69/Highway 59 corridor in the city. After that it may weaken as it approaches the coast (or maybe not).

Regardless, you should be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather overnight. Since this is not a slam dunk, we are only going to a 7 out of 10 on our excitable dogs scale. But if things line up, the thunder, lightning, and wind from these storms may jolt you awake tonight. Again we are concerned about hail and damaging wind gusts, although we cannot rule out a tornado. In terms of rainfall, since the storms will be fairly progressive, most areas should see 1 inch or less, although there will likely be some higher bullseyes.

Much calmer weather will arrive by Monday morning, and prevail through much of the week.

In brief: After a few calmer days, the potential for rainfall, and possibly some stronger thunderstorms, returns to Houston on Friday and Saturday. The storms will be hit or miss, but worth looking out for. Expect hotter and sunnier conditions on Sunday before a slightly cooler start to next week.

Overall setup

The atmosphere will become more favorable for showers and thunderstorms beginning today, with plenty of moisture and a series of disturbances. But unlike some of our recent rainy patterns, this one will produce much more scattered activity rather than widespread activity. Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to as showers and thunderstorms could become briefly intense. In terms of rainfall accumulations, I think they will be widely variable, with some locations picking up a tenth of an inch or two, and others up to an inch or two of rainfall. Bottom line: rainfall and storm disruptions are possible on Friday and Saturday, but they are far from guaranteed.

Friday

Conditions today will be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, and light winds mostly from the southeast. We are seeing some storms north of Houston this morning, in places like Brenham, Navasota, and Willis. Some of our high-resolution modeling indicates the focus of this activity will shift to the south of I-10, closer to the coast, later today. I’m making no predictions with confidence. Rain chances continue overnight, with lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday

Rain chances on Saturday are, again, about 50 percent area-wide for much of the daytime and into the evening. We should see a little more sunshine, and this probably will allow high temperatures to reach the mid-80s. If you have outdoor plans they could be perfectly fine, but you should have a back-up option in case showers and thunderstorms quickly roll in. Rain chances slacken a bit overnight, heading into Sunday morning.

Sunday

Skies on Sunday should be mostly sunny, and this will be a warm to hot day in the upper 80s for the region. A few inland locations may touch 90 degrees. Rain chances are about 10 percent during the daytime, but will increase a bit later on Sunday evening and overnight as a weak front approaches the area.

Next week

The first half of next week will see moderately cooler and drier weather, with high temperatures in the mid-80s and low temperatures in the mid-60s. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny and the humidity will be slightly lower. This is by no means chilly weather, but compared to what is coming soon with Houston’s summer, it won’t be unpleasant at all—especially mornings and evenings. Houston probably will get back into the upper-80s by the middle of next week with more humid conditions. Overall, rain chances look to be pretty low until at least the end of next week.

We’ll be back with you on Monday morning, unless storm activity today or Saturday becomes more widespread and intense than we presently anticipate, in which case we’ll keep you updated.

In brief: We’re continuing to struggle with the details for the forecast this weekend. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Saturday, but they’re far from a slam dunk. Sunday looks sunny and warmer.

Thursday

A weak front has pushed into Houston, and as a result we’re seeing slightly cooler conditions this morning. Some outlying areas, such as Conroe, are in the low 60s while most of the rest of the region has dropped into the mid- to upper-80s with slightly drier air. This is about the maximal extent of the front, which will eventually drift back onshore. Conditions overall today will be fair, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and modestly lower humidity. Rain chances are near zero. Winds shift from northeast to easterly later today, so we can expect a warmer night, with lows perhaps dropping only to 70 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

The front will essentially move back onshore and serve as a focus for rainfall, some of it possibly heavy, on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. It’s not a slam dunk, however. In fact I think there’s a solid chance of a busted forecast, which if you’ve been reading my daily updates all week, you know I’ve been struggling to make sense of the data.

Most likely, what I think will happen is that we will see scattered showers on Friday. Then, possibly on Friday night or early Saturday, a more organized round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, followed by more scattered showers during the daytime on Saturday. But am I confident in this forecast? I am not. I could easily see most of Houston picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Saturday night, and I could easily see most of Houston picking up 0.1 to 0.3 inches of rain during this period. Severe weather appears to be a low-end possibility, so I’m not really concerned about that. Fortunately Matt is on the schedule to write Friday morning’s update, and it will be his responsibility to sort all of this out for us.

As for temperatures, humidity levels will recover quickly, but clouds should limit high temperatures. I think we’re looking at highs near 80 degrees on Friday, and a little warmer on Saturday.

Sunday

Following a string of cloudier weather, we’re pretty confident that this will be a warmer and sunnier day. Most of the area can expect to reach the upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies. Winds look light. For outdoor activities this weekend, Sunday looks to be the day. Lows on Sunday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Monday and beyond

This should be another partly to mostly sunny day, with a weak front moving into the area (this probably will not bring too much rain with it, if any). Highs should be in the mid-80s. Lows on Monday night could drop into the 60s. Most of next week likely will see highs in the 80s, with partly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Overall rain chances appear to be fairly low but they could rise as we get toward, or into next weekend.