In brief: Following widespread showers this past weekend, the region will see ongoing rain chances through the middle of this week. We’ll see a warming trend heading into the weekend, which looks to be fairly humid.

Saturday rewind

Much of the Houston area received a good soaking on Saturday as a cold front slowly moved into the region. Some areas got a little too much rain, with some street flooding occurring from just southeast of downtown out Highway 90 and Interstate 10 toward Sheldon. Some of these locations received 3 to 5 inches, whereas most of the region picked up 0.5 to 2 inches. Although it came on the weekend, much of this rain was welcome after a dry winter and start to spring. Our overall pattern will now remain fairly wet this week as a moist airmass remains in place.

Monday

Temperatures are generally in the low 60s this morning, with winds shifting to come from the east. Skies are also mostly cloudy and that’s not going to change much over the next several days. It’s possible that we see some sprinkles today, but there’s enough dry air about that any showers may not make it to the ground. In any case, if there is light rain today it most likely will occur to the west of Interstate 45. Otherwise expect a high around 70 degrees, with modest easterly winds. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 60s, and as the dry air edges out of the area our rain chances will go up overnight.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Increasing moisture paired with a disturbed atmosphere will lead to high rain chances on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of these showers look moderate in nature, but we certainly cannot rule out some heavier rainfall. I expect much of the area to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but there will very likely be some higher isolated totals. I’m not ready to pull the trigger on a Stage 1 flood alert, but it is something that Matt and I will be watching given what happened on Saturday. Anyway, these should be days with highs in the 70s, mostly cloudy skies, and on- and off-showers. Rains should finally ebb on Wednesday evening.

Thursday and Friday

As rain chances diminish we’ll see a little more sunshine to end the work week, and this will allow high temperatures to rise into the low- to mid-80s for most locations. There will still be the odd chance of a shower, but for most of us probably not. Nights will be warm, generally in the lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Skies remain mixed into the weekend, with warming temperatures and plenty of humidity. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-80s. I’ve had several questions about rainfall for this coming weekend. At this point my sense is that shower activity will be fairly limited. So clouds, yes. Rain showers? Probably pretty scattered, in the range of 20 percent each day. Lows remain in the lower 70s. If you’re riding the Texas MS 150 this weekend I’ll have a more detailed forecast for you tomorrow, but the good news is that winds should be from the south-southeast, so there will be a tail, or cross-tail wind most of the way.

Next week

At some point next week, in the Monday to Wednesday time frame, we might see another decent cool front. But the signal is not super strong in our modeling data, and this far out I’m skeptical of pretty much everything. Anyway, expect the week to start fairly warm and humid, and then we’ll see what happens after that.

In brief: Sorry to interrupt your weekend, but we wanted to update your expectations for rainfall later today and tonight. There are some indications that these showers may overperform a little bit, and that isolated locations in Houston may see 3 or more inches of rainfall.

Saturday Night Showers

Houston’s radar is quiet this morning, but beginning a little before noon we expect to see some showers and possibly thunderstorms fill in. Around noon, a few hours ahead of a frontal passage, we could see some showers develop along and south of Interstate 10 with plenty of moisture available in the atmosphere. These storms could be somewhat stationary, allowing for accumulations to build up over time.

Beginning later this afternoon a front will move down from the northwest, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms, and these are likely to persist, on and off, into the early hours of Sunday morning. At this time I don’t expect anything too severe, but thunderstorms (i.e. lightning) and moderate to heavy rainfall are possible.

Rainfall amounts will vary widely today, with most of the region likely getting in the vicinity of 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain. However some locations, possibly near or southeast of downtown Houston, may well see higher totals of 3 inches or more. Again it is difficult to predict precise amounts or locations, but this could set up some street flooding conditions later this afternoon, evening, and during the overnight hours. These rains should move offshore early on Sunday morning, and by around sunrise for the coast.

In terms of temperatures, the region will remain in the vicinity of 80 degrees into the early afternoon, but should drop into the 70s by 3 to 6 pm CT, with continued cooling after that from the front. By Sunday morning much of the area could be as low as the lower 50s, which will feel rather chilly after the extended run of warmer than usual weather we’ve experienced. Sunday afternoon should feel pretty amazing outside with clearing skies, wind gusts dropping, and highs of around 70 degrees.

In brief: Drought conditions have begun to improve across Houston, and that should hopefully continue with more rain expected on Saturday and next week. It will also turn quite a bit cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with early spring type temperatures!

Let’s start with a drought update. The latest report dropped yesterday, and we saw notable improvement across the Houston area, as you’d expect after last weekend.

We should see additional improvement next week, assuming we get the forecast rain tomorrow.

Today

Watch for some patchy fog this morning in spots, but otherwise expect a mix of clouds and sun. We should push up into the mid-80s.

Saturday

Alright, so tomorrow is the tricky forecast day all around. A couple showers are possible in the morning, but we aren’t currently expecting too much in the way of rain through midday. Showers will become a bit more numerous in the afternoon hours across the area. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Here’s a 4 PM forecast radar from the HRRR model just to set the mood a little in terms of what things could look like tomorrow afternoon.

As the afternoon turns to evening, we should see more frequent periods of showers and rain across the area. The back edge of the rain will be slow to advance through Houston, probably not reaching the coast until Sunday morning. Generally speaking, we should see a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall across the area. Some isolated spots will get more, and it’s conceivable that a couple spots see less too. Any areas seeing more rain may also see localized street flooding.

For the Ironman Triathlon, Eric covered things in depth yesterday. There’s no real change in expectations in terms of temperatures and rather unpleasant humidity. I am hopeful that most adverse weather will hold off til the evening hours in The Woodlands, but the reality is that we cannot entirely rule out some showers or even a thunderstorm through the afternoon. The race organizers will be plugged in and act accordingly. We wish everyone participating, the best of luck!!

Temperatures, as noted will be kind of humid. At some point in the 4 to 7 PM timeframe, there’s going to be a significant drop in temperatures from the 80s into the 70s and eventually 60s. We may drop all the way into the 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday

Showers will end through the morning. We may not see complete clearing on Sunday, but I will hold out hope for some sunny breaks. Wind gusts will be up on Sunday, around 20 mph inland and near 30 mph at the coast. It will feel like early spring!

Monday and Tuesday

We will quickly lose that slightly more refreshing air mass and transition back to more typical mid to late spring type weather conditions with onshore flow and a return to a shower or storm chance later Monday and especially Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool with highs only near 70 Monday and mid-70s Tuesday.

Rest of next week

We warm back into the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. With that will come additional unsettled weather. Shower or storm chances will persist across the area. However, many spots will remain dry I would assume; the storm chances will be more isolated than scattered or widespread.

In brief: In today’s post we dive into the weekend forecast, taking an especially close look at conditions for the Ironman event on Saturday in The Woodlands. Sunday turns cooler, with a couple days of spring-like temperatures before another warming trend.

Ironman Texas outlook

We’ve had a lot of questions about the weather for the Ironman triathlon in The Woodlands on Saturday, and here’s what I can tell you. Temperatures at sunrise will be about 70 degrees, rising to the low- to mid-80s during the afternoon hours. Dewpoints will be around 70 degrees through most or all of the daytime hours, so it will feel plenty humid outside. Skies should be mostly cloudy to completely cloudy. There will be a slight chance of light showers through the early afternoon.

Sometime around 4 to 8 pm a front will approach from the northwest, bringing noticeably less humid air and cooler temperatures. At any time beginning during the mid- to late afternoon, until the wee hours on Sunday morning, there will be a healthy chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms in the vicinity of The Woodlands. This is not guaranteed, but non-severe thunderstorms will be distinctly possibly on Saturday evening. For those who don’t know, a triathlon comprises a 2.4-mile swim, a 112-mile bicycle ride and a marathon. Good luck, everyone!

Thursday

With partly sunny skies our temperatures today are likely to be the warmest of the week, with much of the area away from the coast reaching the upper 80s. A few inland locations may even approach 90 degrees. Winds will be from the south at about 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts during the afternoon. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Another warm day, but with a few more clouds our high temperatures may top out in the mid- to upper-80s. It will still be very humid, with gusty southerly winds during the afternoon. Rain chances remain near zero.

Saturday

As noted in the Ironman section above, this will be another warm and humid day, but with cloudy skies likely limiting highs to the mid-80s. There may be a few, very light showers during the daytime. Shower chances pick up during the late afternoon, and especially Saturday night as a front moves through. I think most areas north of I-10 will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with areas along and south of the freeway, closer to the coast, are more likely to get 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain. Most of these rains are likely to come after sunset on Saturday and before sunrise on Sunday. At this time I do not expect any of these showers or thunderstorms to be severe. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the upper 50s for most locations away from the coast.

Sunday

This should be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs in the lower 70s. Some showers may linger near the coast on Sunday morning, but drier air will be steadily moving in from the north. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid- to upper-50s.

Next week

Monday will be another cool day, likely with highs in the low 70s. A chance of showers returns later on Monday with a passing disturbance, and this will persist into Tuesday. (If you’re headed to the Bruno Mars show on Tuesday, this is something to watch for. Speaking of which, it’s at RELIANT Stadium. Is anyone else happy with the reversion of the name?) With the resumption of the onshore flow on Monday we’ll see a warming trend back into the mid-80s next week.