In brief: Today, we look at how drought has changed in the Houston area since last weekend’s rain (it hasn’t). We also take stock of our weekend cold front and look out in time at rain chances over the next 10 days, which are generally absent.

Did this past weekend’s rain help with drought?

No. Technically, it did not. Drought coverage remained unmoved over the last week, with about 95 percent of the area in some sort of drought and over 75 percent in severe drought.

Keep in mind that “drought” itself carries a number of varying definitions. The drought monitor maps like above capture the bulk of the story but not all of the story. Sure, did this past weekend’s rain help matters? Absolutely. But when you’re talking about longer term issues with things like agriculture or water supply or things like that, the story can vary over time and space. Either way, we need more rain. And we’re not gonna get it for a bit.

Today & Saturday

Other than areas of dense fog this morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon near Galveston, things look pretty quiet today and tomorrow. Expect highs near 80 inland and 70s nearer the coast. Outside of low clouds and fog in the morning, look for hazy conditions with clouds and sun. A few drips or drops are possible with a shower or two in area. Cedar pollen remains high, so you may be sneezy.

A cold front is going to advance through the area on Saturday evening, wiping out the haze and fog. It will also wipe out the warmth and humidity. Look for gusty winds Saturday evening, with gusts up to 30 mph inland for a short time and gusts up to 35 mph or so on the Island. The front itself should have little to no fanfare, as it will be mostly a dry front.

Sunday

Temperatures will drop off Saturday night, bottoming out in the 40s over much of the area by Sunday morning.

The breeze should remain all day but it will lower in intensity somewhat. We should see a return to sunshine, dry air, cool air, and low humidity. Look for highs in the 60s on Sunday.

Early next week

The early week will be “post-frontal pleasant” with lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70 by Tuesday. Skies should be sunny.

Later next week

It’s possible that another weak front passes through the area on Wednesday or Thursday, which could usher in another round of gusty winds and lower humidity. Before that, highs will peak back near 80 degrees or so.

Unfortunately, our rain chances over the next 10 days are minimal. Enjoy the generally nice weather, but let’s hope for rain again sooner than later.

In brief: The overall forecast has not changed much, with warm weather persisting through Saturday afternoon before a cool front arrives. Also, we’re welcoming your ideas to improve Space City Weather!

How would you improve us?

The brain trust of Space City Weather will be meeting at an undisclosed location tonight (hint, they serve good pizza) in Houston to discuss our plans for the coming year, and also future directions of the site. No, we’re not planning to change any of fundamental parts of what we do here (such as no-hype forecasts and dad humor). But we are always looking for better ways to meet our readers where they are, and ensuring we’re getting the most reliable information to the broadest audience for free. So if you have any ideas you think would improve Space City Weather, from how we distribute our content to the content itself, leave suggestions in the comments below or use the contact button.

Thursday and Friday

The overall forecast has not changed much. Today and Friday will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies, with muggy air, and high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few days ago it looked like we might hit the mid-80s this week, but we are likely to be spared from that by more clouds than previously anticipated. Nights will still be exceptionally warm for this time of year, however (our lows in the mid- to upper 60s will fall just a couple of degree below record high minimums of 69 degrees). There also will be a slight chance of showers today, but anything that reaches the ground will probably be misty or light, so don’t expect anything in the way of accumulations.

Saturday

This will be another warm and humid day, with a chance of light mist or showers as temperatures push up to around 80 degrees (or a bit above). A front will arrive during the afternoon hours, with drier and cooler air moving in at some point on Saturday evening. I don’t anticipate any showers or storms with the frontal passage. Lows will drop into the upper 40s by Sunday morning as skies clear out.

Sunday and Monday

Winter’s back! These will be cooler days with highs probably in the 60 to 65 degree range along with sunny skies. Sunday will be breezy, but I expect winds to settle down by Sunday evening. Sunday and Monday nights will definitely be on the chilly side. I expect lows of around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas. However I expect the region to remain above freezing, if only a few degrees in the cold spots such as Conroe.

Next week

Tuesday’s highs may be in the 60s, but by Wednesday we’ll be on a distinct warming trend, with highs in the 80s likely for the rest of the work week. Some sort of front may arrive by next weekend, we’ll see.

In brief: A warm and muggy air mass will dominate our region into the weekend before a front drops down from the northwest and sweeps it into the Gulf. Some inland areas may see lows in the upper 30s early next week, but a freeze is unlikely.

Overview

Houston’s weather will be dominated by a persistent onshore flow in the coming days that will bring mild, warm, and humid southerly air into the region. Despite the increasing moisture levels, lift of this warm air at the surface will be mostly suppressed, which will in turn limit our region’s rain chances. While we may see some light, misty showers in the coming days, I don’t think we are going to see much (if anything) in the way of accumulations. We will see a chance for late night and early morning fog, however, as dewpoints match temperatures and overnight winds settle down.

Wednesday

Highs today will reach around 80 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions closer to the coast. Afternoon wind gusts will reach about 20 mph, and with dewpoints in the 60s it will feel fairly humid outside. Overnight low temperatures will fall only into the 60s tonight.

Thursday and Friday

These two days will be similar in Houston, with highs in the lower 80s for the most part. Our daytime temperatures will depend on afternoon cloud cover. Each of these days will also have a low chance of light or misty showers, although again I would not anticipate anything in the way of accumulations. Fog chances will continue through Friday night.

Saturday

We should see more humid, partly cloudy, and warm weather with highs testing the 80 degree mark again. In terms of timing I still think the cold front will push through some time during the afternoon or early evening hours, with dewpoints quickly falling after its passage. Some light showers will be possible with the front, but again accumulations look very slight. By sunrise on Sunday morning we can expect lows probably in the upper 40s for all but coastal areas, which will be a shade warmer.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend will be sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-60s for Houston. The day will be breezy, with winds from the north at 10 to 15 mph and higher gusts bringing in a much drier air mass. By Sunday night we’ll see lows dropping probably into the lower 40s in Houston, with the possibility of some upper 30s for inland areas.

Next week

Monday night will be cold again, before we see temperatures begin to moderate some next week. By Wednesday or Thursday we should return to temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Skies look to be mostly sunny next week, with not much in the way of precipitation chances.

In brief: Houston faces a stretch of considerably warmer than normal weather that will last into the weekend. However by early Sunday we should see a return to more typical conditions for February, with some cold nights to follow early next week.

Warmer through Saturday

Temperatures are generally in the 50s this morning, but this is the last time Houston will see the mercury dip below 60 degrees until Sunday. Lows this week will be in the mid- to upper 60s, which is remarkably warm for this time of year, when overnight temperatures normally fall into the upper 40s. If you’re wondering when the region will start to feel more like late February, the answer is Sunday, when colder and drier air from our next front should arrive in force.

Tuesday

High pressure and a southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures into the weekend. Highs may remain below 80 degrees this afternoon, but most locations will be in the upper 70s at least, with rising dewpoints and partly sunny skies. Southerly winds will be fairly robust, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-60s, with winds dying down enough such that fog is possible in some locations.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warmer days, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. Afternoons will continue to feature fairly strong southerly winds, bringing in that humid Houston air we all know and love. As a result lows will be warm overnight, in the upper 60s.

Friday

This will be another warm and humid day, albeit with a few more clouds. As atmospheric moisture levels continue to nudge up, we may see some very light, scattered showers. Accumulations look slight, accordingly.

Saturday

This day will be similar to Friday, in terms of starting out warm and muggy. However at some point, likely during the afternoon hours, a front will drop into the city from the northwest. We still don’t have details, but I think it’s possible we see some more light showers (there remains no indication of storms) along with and ahead of the front. Again, accumulations don’t look impressive at all.

Sunday

A cooler air mass should follow the front, and by Sunday morning most of the region should see lows in the upper 40s with sharply drier air. Skies should be sunny on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s, so pretty typical for winter in Houston. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the lower 40s, or thereabouts.

Next week

We should stay on the chilly side of things through Tuesday of next week, with lows perhaps in the vicinity of 40 degrees (we’ll have to see about that). I don’t think a freeze is in the cards for the Houston metro area, but locations further inland may briefly see temperatures dip toward that level. For the second half of next week we should see highs recover into the upper 70s or so. Rain chances, overall, look to remain on the low side.