In brief: Houston faces a stretch of considerably warmer than normal weather that will last into the weekend. However by early Sunday we should see a return to more typical conditions for February, with some cold nights to follow early next week.

Warmer through Saturday

Temperatures are generally in the 50s this morning, but this is the last time Houston will see the mercury dip below 60 degrees until Sunday. Lows this week will be in the mid- to upper 60s, which is remarkably warm for this time of year, when overnight temperatures normally fall into the upper 40s. If you’re wondering when the region will start to feel more like late February, the answer is Sunday, when colder and drier air from our next front should arrive in force.

Tuesday

High pressure and a southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures into the weekend. Highs may remain below 80 degrees this afternoon, but most locations will be in the upper 70s at least, with rising dewpoints and partly sunny skies. Southerly winds will be fairly robust, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-60s, with winds dying down enough such that fog is possible in some locations.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warmer days, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. Afternoons will continue to feature fairly strong southerly winds, bringing in that humid Houston air we all know and love. As a result lows will be warm overnight, in the upper 60s.

Friday

This will be another warm and humid day, albeit with a few more clouds. As atmospheric moisture levels continue to nudge up, we may see some very light, scattered showers. Accumulations look slight, accordingly.

Saturday

This day will be similar to Friday, in terms of starting out warm and muggy. However at some point, likely during the afternoon hours, a front will drop into the city from the northwest. We still don’t have details, but I think it’s possible we see some more light showers (there remains no indication of storms) along with and ahead of the front. Again, accumulations don’t look impressive at all.

Sunday

A cooler air mass should follow the front, and by Sunday morning most of the region should see lows in the upper 40s with sharply drier air. Skies should be sunny on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s, so pretty typical for winter in Houston. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the lower 40s, or thereabouts.

Next week

We should stay on the chilly side of things through Tuesday of next week, with lows perhaps in the vicinity of 40 degrees (we’ll have to see about that). I don’t think a freeze is in the cards for the Houston metro area, but locations further inland may briefly see temperatures dip toward that level. For the second half of next week we should see highs recover into the upper 70s or so. Rain chances, overall, look to remain on the low side.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss temperature trends so far this year as we look ahead to the warmest weather so far of 2026. Also, we help readers with the proper way to spell Presidents’ Day in Texas. It varies from state to state!

A warming trend on tap

The warmest day of 2026 occurred just a single day into the new year, back on January 2, when the high temperature in Houston peaked at 84 degrees. If you’ll recall, the entire first week of January was extraordinarily warm before a series of fronts culminated in an exceptionally cold end to the month. February, on average, has so far run about 5 degrees above normal. But we have yet to experience any days this month with a high temperature above 80 degrees. That will change this week, thanks to a persistent southerly flow of warmer air. Just how warm we get will depend upon cloud cover during the afternoon, but most locations should reach the mid-80s for a few days.

Monday

A lot of people have work off today due to Presidents’ Day, a holiday originally intended to celebrate the life and contributions of George Washington, which is marked on the third Monday of February. Different states celebrate and even spell it differently (it is Presidents’ Day in Texas by law), but regardless if you’re off today you’ll have some fine weather at your disposal. After a chilly start around 50 degrees in most locations, we’re going to rise into the lower 70s today with partly sunny skies. Winds will generally be light, from the southeast. Low temperatures tonight will be warmer, in the upper 50s in most locations.

Tuesday

We’ll see a more pronounced southerly flow by Tuesday, and this will start to bring humidity levels up further. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to about 80 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Afternoon winds may gust up to 20 or 25 mph. Lows will only fall into the low- to mid-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be the warmest days of the week (Thursday likely the warmest of all) with high temperatures ranging from around 80 degrees into the mid- (and possibly even upper-80s) across Houston. Actual highs will depend on how far you are from the coast (warmer) and how much cloud cover there is during the afternoon hours (cooler). Anyway it’s going to feel fairly warm and humid, with mild nights in the 60s. Some sort of front may arrive by Friday or so, brining a chance of rain. We’ll see.

Saturday and Sunday

At some point we will see a decent front move in, perhaps with a delay in cooler and drier air afterward. Given uncertainty in the timing I can’t offer a firm prediction on this weekend’s weather yet. A reader mentioned that there’s a big custom car and truck show in Conroe this weekend, and I think the weather will generally be fair, with partly sunny skies, and highs in the 70s. At some point there may be a chance of rain associated with the front, although I don’t anticipate anything like we experienced with the storms that passed on Saturday evening. We’ll try to get you some better weekend details soon.

Next week

We should see a few cooler days to start next week, in the wake of this weekend’s front, before another warmup to around 80 degrees or so.

In brief: Happy Valentine’s Day, everyone! As we’ve been discussing for several days now, Houston will face the threat of storms this evening, and we just wanted to jump into your timeline today with an update on what to expect, and when.

Saturday afternoon

We’ve seen some scattered, mostly light showers this morning, and those will persist on and off through at least the early afternoon hours. Generally we will see highs in the 70s with very humid air. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. By late this afternoon a line of showers and thunderstorms will start to approach the Houston region from the northwest, likely reaching College Station between 4 pm and 6 pm CT.

Saturday evening

I realize that a lot of people have plans this evening, and that’s great. But we are going to ask you to please be weather aware. Our latest high-resolution modeling suggests this line of storms will strengthen as it nears the coast. I expect the storms to reach a line from The Woodlands to Katy around 5 to 7 pm, central Houston shortly thereafter, and move off the coast by 8 to 10 pm. The line will be moving through progressively, but because the showers may be intense most locations probably will pick up on the order of 1 inch of rain.

How about other severe threats? NOAA has raised the threat of severe weather for the Houston region to “slight risk.” Effectively this means there will be the possibility of damaging winds (with the main line of storms as they blow through) along with small hail. A few brief tornadoes are also possible, but I want to emphasize that right now this does not have the classic setup for severe weather.

Anyway, the weather at your location in southeast Houston will turn gnarly for about an hour this evening, give or take. If you take cover as the system blows through, you can just as easily move about safely once it has passed. Conditions will calm down quickly this evening after the storms, with temperatures of about 60 degrees, falling to the upper 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday

By sunrise on Sunday we should see some stronger northerly winds, with gusts up to about 30 mph or so as drier air moves in. These winds should start to back off some by Sunday afternoon. Expect clearing skies, with a high of around 70 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

In brief: We expect some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday in Houston, a couple of which could be on the stronger side. Outside of that, we have nice weather to close the weekend, and another warming trend in store next week.

Got Valentine’s (or anti-Valentine’s) Day plans on Saturday? Be sure to include an umbrella as part of your fancy attire. We’ve got the details on some storms this weekend.

Today

Keep your eyes open for fog this morning. It’s a prevalent pest across the southeast half of the area, and it’s locally dense in spots. It will slowly lift through morning, but fog may cling to Galveston Island or around the bay for much of Friday. Otherwise, it’ll be warm and humid today with highs in the 70s to near 80 inland and cooler at the coast.

Saturday

Through midday Saturday, all looks well. A few sprinkles or showers, as well as some continued fog is a possibility but otherwise it’ll be fine. Round one of showers or a few thunderstorms may arrive around mid to late afternoon. None of these are expected to be significant. It’s the second round that arrives in the evening, probably between 6 and 10 PM or so that may have some noisy, stronger storms.

The entire region is carpeted in a marginal risk, level 1/5, for severe weather tomorrow, which generally means lower-end coverage of severe storms. Many locations will hear thunder, but only one or two may see a severe storm with gusty winds. Storms should exit the coast around or before midnight, ending any severe threat, The chance of a severe storm may be highest north of I-10 tomorrow.

In addition, some locally heavy rain is likely tomorrow, with a few spots perhaps seeing 2 inches of rain, while others see a quarter inch. Basically, have an umbrella, and if you hear thunder, retreat to a safe indoor location.

Otherwise, look for clouds, some sun, and some fog with highs in the 70s.

Sunday & Washington’s Birthday

We should clear out and have a picture-perfect Sunday and Presidents’ Day Monday. Sunday looks glorious with sunshine and highs in the low-70s, although a bit on the breezy side at times with north winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph or so. Monday morning will start in the 40s and 50s, warming into the 70s again with pleasant humidity and sunshine.

Rest of next week

To be honest, next week looks a bit like this week, with temps warming up again into the 80s probably, along with slowly building humidity. We will probably see our next front sometime near next weekend or just beyond. Timing is suspect right now. That next front could have a tinge more punch of cooler air behind it, but nothing like a freeze or anything.