In brief: Houston has a mixed bag of rain chances for the next few days, with Saturday still looking like the most bullish chance at rainfall. Despite warm, humid conditions in the near term, much cooler weather is expected to arrive on Sunday.

Quick notes

First off, I want to thank Eric for his kind post on Tuesday regarding my news of departure from Houston this summer. I am thankful for the opportunity to stay involved with Space City Weather as much as I have always been though.

Second, I left off one additional word of thanks in my post Monday, and that was to Reliant for being such an amazing supporter and sponsor for Space City Weather. Really, they just let us do our thing, hands off, and in return we periodically throw some useful messaging and information on what they provide to our audience. It feels like it’s been win-win, and I just want to make sure to share my appreciation and gratitude for their support.

Last, I want to congratulate everyone in the Houston area (and beyond) that has been involved in the Artemis mission. I mean…wow. The mission is of course nowhere near completed yet, but to be able to share that moment with my kids, a moment that those of us born after the early 70s have never experienced was truly special. And it’s not like we just watched the launch and then went about the evening. No, we fired back up NASA’s mission stream before bed to check on them. And we will be doing that many more times for this and future launches. I am hopeful this spurs new interest in space and support of science. Time and again it’s been proven that with human ingenuity and science, great achievements are possible. To the many folks that have brought us back to this point, thank you.

Onward…

Thursday and Friday

If you were lucky yesterday, you saw some rain. I literally looked outside, said “it’s raining,” and in the time it took me to comprehend that it was raining, it stopped. I’m not exaggerating whatsoever. “Blink and you might miss it” applied. Some folks did do okay though. The Sealy area saw over 0.75″ of rain in spots, including a 1.12″ from a Harris County Flood Control District gauge north of San Felipe. There was also a corridor of heavier rainfall north of Downtown with 1.25″ at a CenterPoint gauge along Tidwell Road and 1.16″ at 59 & 610.

Yesterday’s rainfall came from south to north moving showers as gusty winds and Gulf moisture piled in. Yesterday was also one of the most uncomfortable days of this spring with the humidity. Today’s rain chances will be slightly different. The setup features showers and storms that are approaching Aggieland from the north and west as a boundary nudges toward the region. It’s unlikely that those storms are going to make it into the Houston Metro in an organized fashion. But some disorganized showers are already occurring across the area and a few storms are possible later this morning in places like Navasota or Magnolia or The Woodlands.

Friday will probably just feature a smattering of some light to moderate showers and nothing worse. Good news if, you’ll be attending the Dash game! Highs will be in the low to mid-80s both today and tomorrow with lows stuck in the 70s.

Saturday

It appears that the first half of this weekend will feature our best chance for more widespread rain. That said, there continues to be some model disagreement on how resilient the coverage of that rain will be. In general, expect a solid line of showers and thunderstorms, including some that could be on the stronger side moving into the Brazos Valley early on Saturday afternoon. Those should begin to move into northwestern parts of the Houston Metro (Katy, Cypress, Magnolia north to Conroe) by late afternoon. The line of storms may peak as it enters the northwest fringe of the Houston area but then begin to fracture or fizzle during the evening hours as it moves south and east from there.

As of right now I would expect the best chances of a half inch or more of rainfall on Saturday to be north of I-10 and west of I-45, with the lowest chances south of I-10 and west of Highway 288. Rain totals may end up ranging from a quarter inch in the Wharton area to a half inch or so at the coast to 1.5 or 2 inches northwest of Houston. We’ll fine tune this again tomorrow.

Sunday

Clouds and light showers may linger on Sunday, especially south and east of Houston. It will also turn sharply cooler on Sunday. Expect highs near 70 degrees north and west to low or mid-70s south and east. An additional disturbance may pass to the south of our area Sunday evening providing a slight uptick in rain chances for the Matagorda Bay region into Galveston.

Next week

Cloud cover may linger into Monday morning, along with shower chances near the coast before things clear out a bit. This should lead to a decent Monday afternoon and Tuesday, with highs in the 70s. Morning lows will be in the 50s or even some 40s!

Rain chances may begin to slowly return after Tuesday with gradual warming.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss this evening’s liftoff of four astronauts to the Moon, with fine weather conditions expected for the launch window. Closer to home we remain in a warm and muggy pattern, although Houston will start to see increasing rain chances today. Saturday still looks dynamic ahead of a cooler and gray Easter Sunday.

Update on Artemis II

I’m in Florida this morning for the historic launch of Artemis II, during which four astronauts—who have been our neighbors here in Houston for at least the last decade—are scheduled to fly to the Moon. The two-hour launch window opens at 6:24 pm ET this evening, and local weather conditions are favorable for liftoff. There is always the chance of technical issues with the rocket or spacecraft, but if not, we’re sending humans back into deep space for the first time in more than 50 years. And these are really great people, Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen, whom we can all be proud of and cheer on. Following the launch window opening, there will be a full Moon at 8:11 pm ET. Seems fitting. My colleage and I at Ars Technica will be providing full coverage if you’re interested in knowing more.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Alright, back to local weather. There won’t be much change over the next three days so I am lumping them together. We are going to see continued warm weather, with daytime highs in the range of the mid-80s, plenty of humidity, and very warm nights with temperatures only falling into the lower 70s. Southerly winds will also be frisky, gusting up to 25 mph or higher during the afternoon hours. We are also going to see some bonafide rain chances, but these showers will be very hit or miss. A few areas may see some afternoon thunderstorms whereas the majority of us only sees gray skies. Overall I expect most of Houston to pick up a tenth of an inch of rain, or two, over the next couple of days. But a few areas will get more.

Saturday and Sunday

Our weather this weekend will turn a bit more dynamic. We’re still outside the range of high-resolution models, but generally the picture is fairly straightforward. Saturday morning looks warm and muggy, but I don’t anticipate much in the way of shower activity. So basically a continuation of previous days.

However, rain chances will increase during the afternoon hours, with the greatest likelihood of rain from mid-afternoon on Saturday to the early morning hours on Easter Sunday. For now overall conditions are not particularly supportive for severe weather, with the primary threat heavy rain. I don’t want to over-set expectations here. My hope is that most of the region receives a good soaking, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Given the high atmospheric levels we cannot exclude the possibility of heavy rainfall briefly backing up streets, but I don’t think this will be too much of an issue.

By Sunday morning it will feel cooler outside, with temperatures in the upper 50s for most locations. If the front lingers near the coast for awhile, we may see some scattered showers on Sunday morning, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 10. Skies should remain mostly cloudy regardless, with daytime highs in the upper 60s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Next week

Fine, spring-like weather will hang on through the middle of next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Daytime highs may rebound to around 80 degrees toward the end of next week, when some modest rain chances remain.

In brief: In today’s post I share a few words of appreciation for Matt Lanza, my long-time partner here. As for the forecast, we have a very welcome return of rain chances after three weeks, and the latest on the timing of a front just before Easter Sunday.

Matt heads north

You probably saw the news yesterday that Matt’s family is moving from Houston to Connecticut, and I fully support his decision and the reasons he articulated for doing so. Houston does have a fraught relationship with extreme weather—I’ve lived here for 30 years and some of these experiences helped formulate my career. Matt is a critical part of what we do here. Almost from the beginning of Space City Weather he has been an integral part of building this site, helping to set its editorial tone, and playing an important role in the forecasts we hit, and our occasional misses. In a world that can be callous, he is kind, thoughtful, and compassionate. I’m thrilled he will continue to be involved here. As for me, the majority of my family lives here in the Houston area, my kids are here, and perhaps one day so will my grandkids. I cannot imagine leaving them, so you’re stuck with me.

Tuesday

Today is probably our final day with mostly sunny skies for most of the day. This will allow high temperatures to reach the mid-80s for most of the area, with a warm southerly flow at the surface. Winds may gust up to 20 mph, or a touch higher, this afternoon. Hopefully this will help bring down some of the final tree pollen. We’ve got to be nearing the end of that season, right? We may also see some scattered, very light showers today but anything that reaches the surface will be very light. Lows tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees, very warm for this time of year.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be warm days, with highs likely in the range of the mid-80s and plenty of humidity. However, instead of mostly sunny skies we will see more clouds, and along with that higher rain chances. Odds are better north of Interstate 10, as a front supporting rain showers will be stalling out north of the metro area. Still, everyone has a decent shot of rain on both days, and I expect accumulations of roughly a tenth of an inch to a few tenths of an inch. Some pockets of heavier rainfall are possible, so I wouldn’t rule out a few bullseyes of 1 inch or more. We’ll keep an eye on things. Overnight lows remain very sultry for this time of year, perhaps only falling into the low 70s.

Friday

Rain chances will fall back to 10 or 20 percent on Friday, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-80s with another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

Temperature wise, Saturday will start out like the rest of the week, warm and muggy. Light showers will be possible during the first part of the day. The timing of the front is still a little bit uncertain, but at this point I anticipate the best chance for showers (along with the potnetial for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall) will come between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations I’ll guess most locations pick up an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but this forecast is still evolving.

At some point on Saturday evening, or perhaps around midnight, drier and cooler air will begin flowing in from the north. Temperautres by Easter Sunday morning probably will be in the upper 50s, with a moderate northerly breeze. Highs on Sunday should be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, but let’s wait an see. The biggest question is rain showers. I do think there will be some lingering activity on Sunday morning, but I’m hopeful this will clear out during the afternoon hours. Skies will remain cloudy regardless. Lows on Sunday night could drop to around 50 degrees outside of Houston, with slightly warmer conditions in the city.

Next week

Sunshine returns next week, and we should see some lovely spring-time weather. Look for days in the 70s through Wednesday, probably, with nights in the 50s. Humidity should remain pleasantly low through Wednesday or Thursday, so again, some very nice weather to look forward to!

In brief: Nothing about the site is changing, but Matt has a life update to share.

A couple things happened last Friday. First, it was announced that Houston is finally getting back the WNBA team it always deserved, as the Connecticut Sun will be relocating here in 2027. Friday was also the beginning of a transition for me, Matt, the managing editor of this website. I resigned from my position at CenterPoint Energy. Let’s just get this out of the way first: It was a privilege to work with and learn from so many people at that organization. I am grateful for the opportunity they gave me, especially as one of the voices who was critical of them in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl.

I found the commitment there to continuous improvement refreshing. Every time I engaged with executives from the CEO on down at CenterPoint, the first question they would ask me is “do you have what you need?” I don’t think anyone in the area can fully comprehend how much work is being done across the region by CenterPoint, both in response to 2024’s disasters and in anticipation of the absolutely insane growth in power demand coming to Texas. And quite frankly, I got to build something really cool stuff that is built to last and will continue to help further their preparation and resiliency to disasters. I leave them in the more than capable hands of Lena Dziechowski, who is an absolute rock star of a meteorologist. I was incredibly lucky to work with her, and I wish her and CenterPoint absolutely nothing but success going forward.

Now, as they say, some personal news. “The only constant in life is change,” is a quote often misattributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus. Whoever said it, however, was correct. The world is in constant flux. It’s partially why I enjoy weather forecasting. Our lives are all full of change. I’ve been in Houston for almost 15 years now, half of which have included children, a process that in and of itself was full of challenges and changes in expectations. Job changes, some by choice, some not, living changes, health changes, and on and on. Now my family will be making another big change in the coming months, relocating from Houston to Connecticut. Houston gets the Sun (Comets), Connecticut gets us.

Obviously, this was not an easy decision, but in the interest of transparency to our readers, something we always do, I’ll share with you some reasons why. The first and foremost reason is family. My father will be turning 80 in a year and a half, and quite frankly, seeing him and my mom once a year has started to weigh on my conscience a bit. They still live in New Jersey and don’t exactly enjoy traveling, and with grandchildren in the mix now, it feels a bit unfair. A move closer will allow us to see each other more. We’ve been fortunate and blessed to have my wife’s parents relocate to the Houston area most of the time we’ve been here, and in many ways it also feels unfair to leave them. But they also travel a bit better, and we will be happy to return to visit Houston once or twice a year (except not in August or September, sorry).

And in that vein, another reason is that quite frankly, I do worry about our vulnerability here to hurricanes, and not just Beryl-type storms—much bigger storms. There’s a commitment all around toward building resiliency in our region and things are better now than they were 5 or 10 years ago. But I’ll be honest, the fact that the “Ike Dike” is still mainly a plan on paper nearly 20 years after Ike is a little troubling. Metaphorically, my concern for hurricanes is what keeps me up at night. I take this stuff seriously. It’s a passion, a hobby, and a job. After 15 years of this, I’m ready to tap the brakes a bit for my own sanity before this literally keeps me up at night. Sure, the odds in any given year are exceptionally low. But when this is what you do for a living and you know more than most people about storms, it doesn’t always feel that way. Also, our summers have been getting hotter here, which is going to continue as the climate changes. I can live with cold, even if it’s annoying (especially in March in New England), but 9 of our 15 hottest summers have occurred since 2009. Sprawl and urban heat island are certainly part of that, but so is a warming Gulf and climate change. Some people love the heat or can tolerate it, and that’s great. I can too, but within limits. 2023 was the most miserable summer I’ve ever experienced, and I’d rather not go through that again.

So what does that mean for the site? And for that matter The Eyewall? The answer is nothing. I am going to continue to be the primary producer of posts for The Eyewall. And I will continue to lend Eric a hand with SCW, posting regularly on Fridays and hopefully having the ability to do some extra-curricular stuff to help you understand Houston’s weather better. In fact, having me an hour ahead of Houston may even be a bit more advantageous to getting some stuff out sooner during bigger weather events or important forecasts. The idea is that you’ll notice nothing different.

To say we’ll miss Houston is an understatement. I outlined my weathery concerns above, but the reality is that the people here are amazing. The community here is amazing. The passion and pride is amazing. I love how Houston can be honest about some of its shortcomings but then the second some outsider tries to talk bad about it, we come at them with pitchforks. Do not mess with Houston. Houston is actually how people outside Texas envision Austin to be: It’s quirky, fun, it functions, it’s full of energy, literally and figuratively, and it’s woefully underrated outside of Texas. Sorry, ATX…HOU is cooler. It has the most amazing food of any place I’ve lived or visited. You can even find pizza here that more than meets the mark. I may be getting good pizza in Connecticut, but I will probably desperately miss the rest of the food available here. Did I think I’d live in Houston when I graduated college? Nope. Am I glad I did? Yes.

We’ll remain here in Houston for a few more months before the move. I’ll be taking on a new full-time role helping commodities traders with weather intelligence, getting more into the weeds of the weather forecasting that I also love. But Eric and I just wanted you to know about my change in situation before it happened. And we want to be sure you are also reassured that nothing is changing for the site. Thanks for adopting this Yankee over the years, and thanks as always for supporting the mission Eric and I strive to achieve.