In brief: Tropical Depression 2 may become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow, but for Houston at this point we are not expecting significant impacts, anticipating that it will fall apart before arriving here. Still, we encourage folks to monitor the forecast over the next couple days in case anything should change. Otherwise, heat is the story this week, with a legitimate shot at 100 degrees, especially Wednesday.

Tropical Depression 2

Let’s get right down to business.

Tropical Depression 2 formed yesterday in the eastern Gulf. Over the next couple days, it’s expected to drift westward, becoming a tropical storm. Now, I’ll be the first to tell you that looking at this thing on satellite this morning, it’s not exactly looking healthy.

And, in fact, the vast majority of tropical modeling, as well as Google Deep Mind’s 1,000 member forecast ensemble keep TD 2’s intensity at or below middle grade tropical storm levels. In other words, we do not believe this is going to be a repeat of Beryl. Interestingly, if you look at the various ensembles, you also see a lot of them “losing” Tropical Depression 2 before it gets to Texas.

In other words, we are seeing the bulk of the modeling say that TD 2 is going to run its course before getting to Texas. The 5 to 10 percent or so that survive west of Louisiana are the ones coming to Texas. So it may look as if the modeling is all pointed right at Texas, but in reality, that’s mainly saying the remnant is. And when you look at the NHC forecast at the top, you’ll notice the intensity is dropped to depression when it makes it to Texas. Frankly, that may be generous given what we see this morning. It may be that this system ends up arriving as a shell of itself in Texas.

There are still a handful of model ensembles that track the system a little farther south, a scenario we won’t take off the table. But in those cases, it’s likely that the intensity of TD 2, or Bertha, would be capped by wind shear. And if that doesn’t do it, dry air that surrounds this thing on all sides probably will.

So what does it mean here in Houston?

As of today, impacts are expected to be minimal. Wind impacts at this point would be tropical depression or less. Marine impacts would be for some minor coastal flooding perhaps or just slightly higher tides. And rainfall impacts would also be minimal, with just a slightly increased chance of showers on Thursday or Friday perhaps.

That’s as of right this moment. Forecasts can and do change, and we encourage you to continue monitoring the forecast as the week progresses. If something notable changes this afternoon, we’ll chime in later today.

Hottest week of summer

Meanwhile, truthfully, the bigger story this week will be the heat. This is going to be our hottest week of summer so far. We have our best chance at 100 degrees beginning tomorrow and perhaps more likely on Wednesday.

We encourage folks to try not to go out exercising during the peak heat of the day, drink water, and just keep in mind that while your body adapts to summer heat, some days are just a little bit worse than others. That’s Tuesday and especially Wednesday. On the flip side, the humidity doesn’t look overly impressive. In fact, because of Tropical Depression 2, Houston may actually see some drier air filter in out of the northeast. That won’t make it feel gloriously comfortable, but it may allow for heat index values (or “real feel” temperatures) to be somewhat tolerable. It may also mean the difference between a heat advisory instead of an extreme heat warning.

After Friday

As noted earlier, the remnants of TD 2 could provide a slight bump in shower chances Thursday or Friday. After that, it looks like very standard summer here. We’ll probably have a couple thunderstorms each day but nothing significant. Temperatures will be hot but not extreme. And barring any change in pattern, it should be fairly calm.

In brief: We have an update on the situation west of Houston this morning. Additionally, we take a look at our lack of rain chances, the increasing heat, and the tropics today, all of which seem typical for late July.

Our thoughts remain with Hill Country and nearby areas impacted by flooding in recent days. While we are grateful at least that the human toll seems to be much less this time around, it’s still difficult to see unfold. This morning’s rains are to the west of the areas impacted yesterday, with numerous flood advisories and some flash flood warnings posted for places south of San Angelo.

This includes Ozona and Sonora, where 3 inches or more of rain has fallen overnight. Another inch or two is possible in some of these areas, so flash flooding remains a distinct possibility through midday.

No more chasing waterfalls

The wet pattern that Texas has been dealing with will finally exit the state this weekend. Locally, this means that our rain chances will remain quite miniscule over the next several days.

In fact, we may be lucky to see any rain at all over the next week. I don’t think we’ll hear a ton of complaints about this.

But the heat starts to creep creep

With rain chances in the proverbial gutter, this means that temperatures are going to begin to increase. On top of that, these temperatures will get a little bit of a boost as upper atmospheric high pressure flexes over Texas early to mid-week next week.

This means that temperatures, which jumped back into the mid-90s yesterday will probably stay there for a couple more days and then slowly trend toward the upper 90s. By the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday, we could possibly be making a run closer to 100 degrees, but that’s still a bit of a longshot I think. Recent rains and wet soils will probably tamp down heat a little bit. Atmospheric moisture will be on the low side, but the humidity will still probably be elevated, as it typically is approaching August.

Somethin’ You Wanna Know

We’ll close with the topic of tropics.

The NHC continues with a 20 percent area in the northeast Gulf. This area, if it did develop, would likely be a lower-end storm and either hug the Gulf Coast or push east into the Atlantic. The other area in the deep Atlantic with a 10 percent probability of development is likely to be torn apart by wind shear later this weekend. In other words, we’re in pretty good shape. Let’s keep it going.

In brief: The Texas Hill Country was battered by heavy rain again this week, culminating in numerous flash flood emergencies this morning. Rain will gradually decrease and pull away tonight and tomorrow. In this post, originally published by The Eyewall on Thursday morning, we provide additional context.

Hill Country, again

On Tuesday and Wednesday it rained heavily in areas west of San Antonio. Overnight and this morning, it rained torrentially. As a result, there is ongoing severe flash flooding in the area, including a flash flood emergency for Uvalde, Kerrville, and the Guadalupe River downstream of Kerrville.

Unfortunately, there is additional heavy rain coming for Uvalde and probably Medina and Kerrville as well. This will move through before lunchtime, and it may deposit another 1 to 3 inches of rain before things settle down this afternoon. During the July 4, 2025 tragedy, the heaviest rainfall fell in the Guadalupe watershed upstream from Kerrville, near or just west of Ingram.

On the Guadalupe River downstream from Kerrville in Comfort, the river rose over 30 feet in a matter of hours.

The outcome this time around has some notable differences from July 4th of last year. For one, the river rose higher at Comfort, likely due to the amount of water falling slightly farther downstream from 2025. It also rose “slower.” A 30 foot rise in 3 to 4 hours is incredible. Keep in mind, however, the water in 2025 accomplished a similar feat in 2 hours or less. Not to say this was a “gentle” rise, but it did not have quite the force and suddenness of last year’s. We also had 2 days of flooding leading into this in the area, so it should have been much more on people’s radars.

Now, the heaviest rain for this whole event has fallen near and north of Uvalde, more in the Nueces River watershed and Upper Frio River. The Frio below Uvalde right now has been raging. We had one crest yesterday over 19 feet, another this morning over 17 feet, and likely a third one coming.

The amount of rain that has fallen is really remarkable. Gauge corrected estimates are around 27 to 28 inches in areas just north of Uvalde over the last 3 days.

All this water is going to flow into the Nueces River. If you’re looking for some silver lining in all this, at least some of this water should be captured in Choke Canyon and Lake Corpus Christi, which would help further alleviate water supply issues in the Coastal Bend. Either way, the flooding right now is catastrophic near Uvalde and on the Guadalupe downstream from Kerrville. We don’t yet know the toll of this event, but the hope is that it should be less costly in human lives than 2025. Our thoughts are with those impacted areas at this time.

Going forward

Once the rain slows down this afternoon, we’ll get a break into evening in many impacted areas. The upper low that has been helping to drive the storminess in Texas is slowly backing toward New Mexico. This should lead to the focus of rain shifting west too.

While some isolated heavy downpours are possible once again near Kerrville and Uvalde, the heaviest rain tonight should fall near Ozona north into San Angelo. We’ll need to watch for flooding in those areas overnight, but the good news is that there has been far less preceding rainfall there like we saw in Uvalde and Kerrville the last few days. So hopefully the flooding issues tonight will be more standard flash flooding than this crazier stuff. But we’d strongly advise folks to take these rain forecasts seriously.

In brief: Houston’s flood risk has ended, but we’re tracking a flash flood emergency in Central Texas, near Kerrville, that is unfolding just a year after catastrophic flooding in similar areas. Locally, clouds will give way to sunshine in the coming days, bringing Houston some of its hottest weather of the year.

Guadalupe River flooding

Things have quieted down in Houston over the last 24 hours, and although we are likely to see some scattered showers over the next couple of days, the region’s flood risk has ended. The story is not the same in Central Texas, where a significant flooding event is unfolding.

At 5:30 am CT this morning the National Weather Service office there issued a “flash flood emergency” for a stretch along the Guadalupe River, to the north of San Antonio. The emergency area runs from the town of Center Point through Bergheim. A gauge at Center Point has risen 32 feet during just the last four hours. According to forecasters, the river is expected to reach a crest similar to the July 4, 2025 catastrophic river flood in that region. Additionally, for Uvalde County, catastrophic flooding is likely along the Frio, Leona, Sabinal, and Nueces rivers.

A flash flood emergency is the weather service’s highest level of flood alert, and they are rarely issued. Such alerts are triggered by rapidly rising water that poses an imminent threat to people.

Thursday

Closer to Houston this morning we are seeing some additional showers to our southwest, near Victoria and El Campo. Generally, I don’t expect these to move into the Houston region, and for the metro area we should only see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Your overall chance of seeing rain is probably about 20 percent. Our skies will likely remain partly to mostly cloudy, however, and this should help limit high temperatures in the lower 90s. Winds will be light, from the southeast. Low temperatures tonight will only briefly drop into the upper 70s.

Friday

We’ll have another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday, but the trend will be toward clearing skies. Accordingly I expect high temperatures to reach the low- to mid-90s across Houston. Low though it may be, this is probably our final chance for rain for a week.

Saturday and Sunday

Summer proper returns to Houston this weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Need I say more? Prepare yourselves accordingly.

Next week

We are going to see our hottest weather of the year, to date, next week. Highs for several days will push into the upper 90s, and some inland areas may touch 100 degrees for the first time. I expect mostly sunny skies. If there’s a silver lining it’s that dewpoints will not be quite as high as they can get during the summertime in Houston, so our nighttime temperatures may cool into the mid-70s rather than just falling to 80 degrees. It’s not much, I know. Rain chances remain near zero until at least Thursday or Friday of next week.