In brief: Additional shower chances over more of the Houston area will build up this weekend as we get a slight reprieve from high summer temperatures. After this weekend, we head back toward the frying pan with a very classic August heat wave likely by next weekend.

After Wednesday’s dud of a day in terms of rain, yesterday was fruitful for parts of the Houston area. Just west of Sugar Land toward New Territory saw 2 to 4 inches of rain. Rosenberg was on the board around 2 to 3 inches. The south side of Pearland over to Friendswood saw a solid 1 to 3 inches. And the narrow area between Ellington Field and Johnson Space Center saw about 2 inches and change. Some other areas saw less rain, albeit a fair bit in spots.

Congrats to our winners!

Today

For most places, today will just be another sultry August day with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. But much like yesterday, there will be at least a few spots that get cooling downpours. As is often the case in summer, the end result could be a quick 1 to 4 inches in any given location, while most folks see nada.

Weekend thru Monday

The next few days after today will have better rain chances over a wider chunk of the area than there have been lately. While some areas have indeed cashed in, many have not. This weekend into Monday will be a good opportunity to get some other places on the rainfall board. As a result of higher coverage of storms and downpours, highs will be in the mid-90s at best, with a few spots maybe not even getting much past 90 degrees if the rains can hit earlier in the day.

Hopefully everyone can participate at least a little.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be the transition days out of the weekend pattern. Look for highs to slowly build back more consistently into the mid-90s or closer to 96 or 97 degrees. Rain chances will begin to gradually slump back toward where they’ve been this week, meaning fewer folks will cash in on the rainfall lotto.

Beyond midweek

The pattern looks to be changing back to a more standard August heat wave setup for East Texas. This will mean daily highs in the upper-90s to near 100 degrees, with lows near 80 degrees. And rain chances, while not zero will be at a premium. Nothing remarkable or severe by Houston standards but very August-like, and it will likely prompt at least a few Heat Advisories heading toward next weekend.

We leave you today with…

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In brief: In today’s post we discuss the pattern that will bring slightly cooler weather and improved rain chances over the several days. Monday continues to look like the day when the region will see its most widespread rainfall, but even then many will probably be disappointed. Major heat looms on the horizon.

Quick August status update

We are now 16 percent of the way through August, if you’re keeping track. And I am. The good news is that we are going to see a bit of a break in temperatures over the weekend, and possibly even some scattered rain showers as high pressure relents a little bit. The bad news is that the latter half of next week (and beyond?) still appears likely to see the return of a stout high, and a period of very warm temperatures.

Thursday

This will be another day that in some ways will similar to what we’ve experienced so far this week: sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-90s for most inland areas. Coastal locations will see daytime temperatures that are a few degrees lower, but it’s going to be hot and humid everywhere. However, one change is that conditions are a little more favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Most of us probably won’t see any rain, but localized downpours may produce 1 inch or more. These showers are most likely to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours, with peak heating.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Highs over the weekend will be a few degrees lower, perhaps in the mid-90s for most of Houston. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy. We are likely to see mostly sunny skies most of the time, but each day will likely have a roughly 30 percent chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. These will be hit or miss, again, so expect the potential for some localized downpours.

Monday

This will probably be the “coolest” day of the period, with partly cloudy skies and highs perhaps only reaching the lower 90s for most locations. With high pressure likely at its weakest, we have a chance of more widespread showers on Monday, but just how widespread remains a question. We shall see.

Rest of next week

After Monday or Tuesday, our temperatures are back on the upswing. Highs will be in the mid-90s, then the upper-90s, and eventually possibly even back into the 100s. Rain chances will correspondingly decline. This very hot pattern persists at least into next weekend. The only note of hope that I can offer you is that, by that point, August will be half over.

In brief: Shower chances! They’re in Houston for a little bit, though most places will see little rain each day. Still, some less hot weather and additional downpours will be in the forecast through the weekend. After that? The heat is coming back.

Some slow-moving downpours impacted parts of the Houston area on Tuesday lingering into the evening hours in portions of northern Harris County. In fact, some areas saw nearly 3 inches of rain!

The big winner was a Harris County Flood Control gauge along Halls Bayou at Airline, with 2.88 inches. It was a narrow corridor, but it was hit good.

Onward.

Today and Thursday

99? 100? Does it even matter? It’s hot! Thankfully, as high pressure starts to loosen up a little bit, the area will see modestly “less hot” weather the next couple days. Look for upper-90s today, more like 98 or so than 99 to 100. And if you feel spicy, lop off another degree on Thursday. Rain chances will remain relatively low in terms of coverage, but like yesterday, there should be at least a few slow-moving downpours each afternoon.

Friday and Saturday

Much more of the same is expected to close the week and start the weekend. High temperatures will probably drop off another degree or two, closer to the mid-90s. Rain chances may dial up another 5 percent or so with pockets of afternoon downpours near the coast and bays and moving inland, more of a traditional sea breeze-driven type setup.

Sunday and Monday

Temperatures should “bottom out” here. Look for mid-90s and a continued chance of daily downpours. Monday may actually see the greatest coverage of daily showers over this stretch.

Rest of next week

This break looks short-lived. I would expect to see temperatures begin to increase again next week. Beginning Tuesday, high pressure begins to reload and reorient. It will probably anchor itself very near Houston or just to the north. If that happens, you can expect a multi-day stretch of temperatures flirting with 100 degrees in addition to very low rain chances. In fact, the area is highlighted on the day 8 to 14 hazards outlook for risk of “extreme heat,” which is really benchmarked at 100ish risk.

Temperatures should be back into the upper-90s by Wednesday to perhaps near 100 again by Thursday, and there they shall sit for more than a couple days. It appears that August is about to August in a very august manner.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s ongoing heat, and the potential for a slight respite during the second half of this week, and through the weekend. We also share some thoughts about El Niño and winter weather hype.

A few words on El Niño

The following section is a re-post from our companion site, The Eyewall. On Monday evening Matt wrote about the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season (it’s still dead), why it’s likely to remain quiet for at least the next week or two, and how El Niño should help keep activity on the lower side for the remainder of the season. He also addressed the topic of El Niño and the upcoming winter. It concerns winter in general for the United States, but is also applicable to Houston:

One thing I want to make sure the general public understands about this and the media ecosystem and content creation system today: You are going to hear people start making bold proclamations about El Niño and winter. Yes, winter. In August. It’s nonsense.

People will cherry pick the most exciting (read: cold/snowy) model they can get their hands on for winter to basically draw you into engagement. They’ll couch it in language like, “This is only one solution, and it’s not necessarily likely to happen, but when I see this, I take notice!” It’s a digital dopamine hit. And it’s just not right, nor is it being a meteorologist. It’s picking a cold model because they know you, the reader or viewer gets excited about that, and it will spur you into engagement, which in turn helps you to feed the beast, as it were.

It used to be rogue “social mediarologists” that did this, but it has gotten far worse and extended into professionals that know (or should know) better, particularly on the broadcast side of things. And a lot of the legacy media tries to draw you in with big, bold headlines too. Bottom line: If someone is selling you a historic cold or snowy winter right now, don’t buy the hype. Sure, there could be a storm or two—as happens almost every winter. That’s not exactly a forecast; it’s called climatology.

I would also add that some of Houston’s recent Arctic outbreaks, including the Valentines’ freeze of 2021, came during La Niña winters.

Ok, on to Houston’s upcoming forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Are we having fun yet? Houston’s official high temperature on Monday reached 99 degrees, and we’re heading back into that realm for the next couple of days. We are going to see plenty of sunshine, plenty of heat, and plenty of humidity. Could we also see some spotty rain showers? Yes, but the overall likelihood of rain is on the order of 10 percent for both days. Nights remain warm of sultry; sultry and warm; every evening and every morn. The doggerel will continue until morale improves.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

We’ll see increased atmospheric moisture levels toward the end of this week thanks to the Gulf, and this will have some subtle effects on our weather. Possibly Thursday, but very likely by Friday, we’ll see a few more clouds, and high temperatures will slip back into the low- to mid-90s across most of the region. Thanks to the sea breeze, we are likely to see scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I wouldn’t set your expectations too high, as overall daily chances are on the order of 20 or 30 percent. But it’s higher than what we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Next week

This modestly cooler pattern may persist into Monday or Tuesday of next week before I think we’re going to see sunnier and hotter weather. We’ll likely be at least back into the mid-90s by mid-week, and possibly higher. The joys of August!