In brief: Houston faces one more ‘hot’ day before temperatures begin to moderate. There is a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, but we are highly confident in widespread showers on Friday. The weekend looks considerably colder.
The 90s are back
Houston officially hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on Tuesday, reaching the mark shortly after noon at Bush Intercontinental Airport. As we noted on Monday, this is only a few days earlier than normal for such a temperature, so it’s not anything to be too concerned about. However, it still felt pretty warm, and served notice for the fact that we are only about a month from the start of June. We know it is not yet June because a fairly strong cool front will arrive on Friday, driving our low temperatures back into the 50s.
By the way, if you missed our Q&A yesterday, there were a lot of good questions, and Matt and I put a lot of effort into providing some answers. Be sure and check it out!
Colder temperatures have moved into North Texas this morning, but they won’t reach Houston for a couple more days. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
It is really warm and muggy this morning, with lows generally in the mid-70s. Overall conditions today should be similar to Tuesday in terms of heat and humidity, with highs likely reaching about 90 degrees in Houston and points north, and slightly cooler conditions near the coast. The question is the potential for storms as a weak front sags into the region.
Generally, I think chances are best for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather along and north of Highway 105, so for locations such as College Station, Huntsville, and Livingston. Even for these areas the overall chance is fairly low, but it is something to watch out for. Later this afternoon it is possible that storms move further south, into the city of Houston itself. This is a low-probability, high-risk scenario in that it is unlikely to happen, but if storms do break out later today they could be severe.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 70s.
Thursday
This will be a mostly cloudy day with highs generally in the mid-80s. Humidity will still be pretty high. There is perhaps a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. As slightly cooler air drifts in, overnight lows may drop into the 60s.
Friday
This is the prime day for showers as a front moves into the region. Let’s start with temperatures. For areas north of Houston, highs may top out at around 60 degrees behind the front, whereas areas along and south of Interstate 10 may reach the upper 70s before cooler temperatures arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s by early Saturday area wide, so that will be a big change.
There will likely be a sharp gradient in temperatures during the daytime Friday. (Weather Bell)
And what of rain? Basically from the wee hours of Friday morning through Friday evening there will be a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. We cannot rule out severe weather like hail and damaging winds, but the biggest threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Most of the region should pick up 1 to 3 inches, from Huntsville all the way to Galveston Island. For a lot of Houston this will be a helpful dousing of rainfall with summer right around the corner. But I’m concerned about the potential for street flooding. Matt and I will assess the need for a Stage 1 flood alert as some locations will almost certainly see higher amounts.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday. (Weather Bell)
If you have outdoor events planned for Friday or Friday evening you absolutely need a backup plan because we are highly confident in widespread rain showers.
Saturday
The rains should clear out on Friday night, leaving us with breezy and cooler conditions on Saturday morning. Some locations, particularly near the coast, may see gusts up to 30 mph later on Friday night and through Saturday morning. These winds should back off a little, with clearing skies as temperatures warm to the lower 70s on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with some inland areas reaching the upper 40s. As noted above, this front will pack a nice punch for late spring.
Sunday
This will be a splendid day, with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, and highs in the 70s. Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night as the onshore flow begins to return.
Next week
Most of next week should be warmer, in the 80s, with returning humidity. A weak front later next week may bring some showers by Thursday or Friday.
Welcome to the April 2026 edition of our occasional SCW Q&A series. This version features one of our most-asked questions: What can we expect from the forecast El Niño coming our way?
Q. What is the expected effect of the predicted super El Niño (predicted to be the strongest in 150 years) on the Houston area for this summer and going into 2027? Will we see more rain? If so, when will such a pattern start? It seems we have been so dry for 4-5 years now.
A. We are now reasonably confident that El Niño will develop this summer, and strengthen as we head in to this fall and winter. Whether it becomes a super El Niño, well, we don’t know for sure. But it is quite possible. As for this summer there probably will be some tailwind effect pushing temperatures upward (we are already expecting a moderately warmer than normal summer). I am also hopeful that a developing El Niño will suppress some hurricane activity this season. We’ll have more to say about that in the coming weeks, but at this point it does not look to be a super-active season.
The probabilities of a strong to very strong El Niño are increasing as we get toward summer (i.e. JJA is June, July, August). (NOAA)
Then, as we get into the fall and winter, my sense is that with a strong El Niño in place we could see a reasonably wet season. However this is far enough into the future that I’m not sure we can really be confident about that. Unfortunately, what I am fairly confident in is that, should we get a super El Niño this summer and fall, its impacts will linger into 2027. This is likely to make for a very hot year for the globe, including summer in Houston next year.
– Eric
Q. I have always wondered what a capping inversion is. It seems to happen fairly often.
A. It does indeed! We often refer to a capping inversion on Space City Weather, but don’t always explain what it means. The concept is quite simple. For showers and thunderstorms to form the warm, moist air at the surface needs to rise several thousand feet and form clouds. If there is warmer air aloft in the atmosphere, this acts as a lid and prevents air from rising. (There’s a nice National Weather Service video showing this in practice on Facebook). This is the “cap.”
Unfortunately there are not great sounding locations upstream of Houston. (NOAA)
Atmospheric “soundings” are a really useful tool for meteorologists to get a vertical profile of the atmosphere, allowing us to determine when there is, and is not a cap. Unfortunately for Houston, there are a lack of good sounding locations (usually gathered by a weather balloon) nearby. Often times on a summer day, the difference between no rain and strong thunderstorms is whether this cap is strong enough to hold on, or erodes throughout the day. This lack of good nearby soundings is another reason why forecasting rainfall locally in Houston is a challenge.
– Eric
Q. I have no meteorological background and am basing this purely off observation but over the last couple of years, or longer, it has seemed that there has been significantly more rainfall in the northern part of Houston/Woodlands/Conroe than in the southern, specifically in the greater SW Houston. It’s almost as if I-10 has some kind of invisible wall. I’ve lived in the greater Houston area my whole life, the last 16 being in Sugar Land. Is there any veracity to this observation or am I just jealous of not getting the rainfall I need for my lawn and garden?
A. I am sorry to say, my jealous friend in Sugar Land, that I believe it is the latter. I should say, I often feel the same way about the area of town I live in, southeast of Houston. It will seem like it is raining everywhere but my neighborhood and this feels very bad. But this, almost certainly, is bias. (For example, the next time it is raining at your house, check the radar to see who is missing out!)
To put a little data to this question, let’s take a look at “percent of normal” rainfall totals for the state of Texas over the last five years. Basically, we can see, for areas from The Woodlands to Galveston pretty much everyone has received 80 to 100 percent of normal rainfall levels. If you squint the Fort Bend County has done a little worse than most.
Percent of normal rainfall over the last five years. (NOAA)
If we look at just the last 12 months, the story is pretty much the same. Areas north of Houston, generally, have gotten a little more rainfall on a “normal” basis compared to southern areas. But it’s not super significant and everyone has gotten a fair amount of precipitation.
Percent of normal rainfall over the last 12 months. (NOAA)
Finally, let’s look at raw rainfall totals over the last five years (below). We can see that the real gradient in rainfall amounts is more of an east-to-west one rather than a north-to-south one. What this reveals is that areas west of Houston, including Fort Bend County, are climatologically a little bit drier than areas to the south and east of the city. This is primarily due to Gulf proximity. Anyway the bottom line is that all of this is mostly psychological.
Raw rainfall totals over the last five years. (NOAA)
-Eric
Q. Will the Gulf of Mexico ever cool down? And what would it take for it to cool down? Or will it never cool down until the next ice age?
A: The Gulf has indeed been running hot. Most global oceans have, but we’re seeing a little bit of easing back of that this year. Still, relative to what is the best normal we have from satellite data (since the late 70s), the Gulf is the warmest it has been.
In the above chart from the University of Arizona, the blue line is in the middle of the pack for above normal water temperatures, but you can see that 2024 and 2025 were setting numerous daily records too. What we’ve sort of seen with the Gulf is a minor warming in the summer in the last 20 to 30 years but a more substantial warming in the fall, winter, and (as shown below) spring. Essentially what seems to be happening is that as our winters, springs, and autumns have warmed, the Gulf has not cooled off as much as we used to see historically.
Sea surface temperature differences from the last 24 years compared to the previous 2024 years. (NOAA PSL)
It pains me to type this, but what would cool down the Gulf of Mexico? The only two logical things that could do it are time or a very large and intense hurricane traversing the middle of the Gulf. Let’s take a look at the most potent Gulf hurricane season in recent memory: 2020. We’ll subtract the November through June sea surface temperatures from the following period (November 2020 through June 2021) just as an example. You’d expect the Gulf to be notably cooler. And it is quite a bit cooler.
The average SST anomaly from 2021 after hurricane season showed a notable cooling of the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA PSL)
But also keep in mind, the Gulf is a curious body of water with very shallow shelf waters and very deep offshore waters. The shelf waters are prone to a lot of fluctuations month to month and year to year, and they’ll respond more to how the seasons perform (colder winters –> colder shelf waters, etc.). But ultimately, what has happened is that the floor on how cool the Gulf can get has likely been raised due in part to climate change. I know a handful of readers don’t want to read that, but that’s the reality. And this is one of the clearest signs of climate warming there is in my opinion because of what has been observed with coral reefs in particular.
So the frustrating answer is that it’s probably going to be warm for a while, at least until we actually get a legitimately sustained cold winter in the Southeast, not just a couple one-off stronger events. Or until we have another active hurricane season. I hope it’s not the latter.
–Matt
Q. Why does it always seem to rain on weekends? Your forecasts for fronts seem to consistently show non-rainy weekdays, with fronts moving through over the weekend. I know weeks and weekends are human things, not nature, but is there some kind of cycle that causes this?
A. I love this question. Because it’s one of those things that sounds a little silly on the surface but people genuinely notice it and are curious. And the reality is actually quite nuanced! So on the one hand, there’s no single mechanism that says cold fronts are going to hit only on Saturdays and Sundays. Our bigger events happen any day of the week. The 1992 November tornado outbreak happened on a Saturday. The 2023 Pasadena tornado happened on a Tuesday.
But! There are a couple ways of looking at this that make chemical and meteorological sense. First, as we all commute to work and school and drive around during the week, our cars, our work, etc. leads to a build-up of aerosols in the atmosphere. Those aerosols act as nuclei in the atmosphere for rain drops to form on. Once you get to the weekend, those aerosols are at their highest amount of the week, and thus you’ve tilted the odds a bit.
Another rainy start to the weekend. (SCW app)
Or so that’s what is speculated on in a 1998 paper. That one focused mostly on the Northeast urban corridor. A subsequent paper in 2010 also looked into this across the entire U.S. and found that there remains a weekend pattern signal even when you remove human (anthropogenic) influences. In other words, there may be a naturally occurring cycle at play. Additionally, a 2003 paper looked into temperature patterns that also found a “weekend effect” that exists. There was also a 2011 paper that noted hailstorms and tornadoes tend to be less frequent on weekends.
But a lot of scientists have also poked holes in this research question, speculating experimental flaws, cognitive biases, etc. The reality is, we just don’t know. But here: I decided to look at Houston’s total rainfall since 2023. 38.72 inches fell on Saturdays and Sundays. 109.18 inches fell on weekdays. About a quarter of our precip since January 2023 has fallen on weekends, which makes up about 29 percent of the week. You could say I’m cherrypicking data here but at least in the last few years, there’s no statistic “weekend effect” in Houston. Still, there’s enough there there in some cases to continue researching the topic!
-Matt
Q. What should I be doing now to prep my home to get ready for summer and better manage my energy costs?
We’ll toss this one to our sitewide partner, Reliant, to weigh in.
A. With warmer days already settling in, now is a smart time to tackle quick home fixes that can improve efficiency and help limit cooling costs as temperatures continue to rise. Plus, as AC use ramps up earlier in the season, small, smart energy choices can help keep homes comfortable while managing monthly bills. Here are a few simple, cost‑conscious tips:
Inspect ductwork for loose connections or damaged insulation as leaks can waste up to 30% of cooled air.
Add more insulation, which is a critical component of home energy efficiency and can be among the most cost-effective improvements you can make.
Replace or clean air filters every 30-60 days, as a clean filter can reduce AC energy consumption by up to 15 percent.
Schedule a spring tune‑up to ensure the AC system is ready for high demand.
Follow the 4×4 rule by raising your air conditioning temperature 4 degrees if you’ll be away from home 4 hours or more.
Get ahead of the summer heat by investing in a smart thermostat, which helps make managing your home’s energy effortless and can lead to real savings when temperatures climb.
In brief: In today’s post we discuss storm and rain chances this week ahead of a robust front on Friday evening that will bring much cooler weather for this weekend. Sunday still looks spectacular.
Big picture
Houston will experience steadily increasing rain chances this week through Friday before a cold front pushes through and cools us down significantly for the weekend. The real questions for this week are the extent to which a capping inversion holds up (What is a cap? See our April Q&A post, which also published this morning) and how far fronts progress before Friday night.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday. (Weather Bell)
Anyway, although storms are somewhat unlikely today, they’re possible, and chances are a little higher on Wednesday. So be prepared for inclement weather (i.e. damaging winds, hail) even if it is fairly unlikely. Our best chance of rain will come on Friday, when a front advances toward, and then moves through Houston. Most of the region should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain this week, with some areas north of Interstate 10 likely seeing more.
Tuesday
Today will be another warm and humid day, but how warm temperatures get will depend on the extent of sunshine this afternoon at your location. I believe most of us will probably get to at least partly sunny skies, if not more. This will allow high temperatures for inland areas to reach around 90 degrees, or perhaps even the low 90s, whereas coastal areas stall in the low- to mid-80s. Anyway, it will be plenty humid. I don’t think Houston will see much in the way of storms or precipitation, but they’re possible along and north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-70s.
Severe weather outlook for Wednesday. (NOAA)
Wednesday
On Wednesday a front will approach the area, but is likely to stall north of the city. In any case, this will help disturb the atmosphere and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Houston, as well as some severe weather. The odds of this occurring are not super high, but there is probably a 20 percent chance of damaging winds, hail, and/or heavy rainfall during the daytime hours. Otherwise it will be another hot and humid day.
Thursday
This looks to be a mostly cloudy day with highs perhaps reaching only the mid-80s. Rain chances are probably in the 30 to 40 percent range, but the likelihood of severe weather is lower. Thursday night will see lows drop to around 70 degrees, probably.
Friday
This is still the day when we expect the most widespread showers and thunderstorms. The likelihood of severe weather looks fairly low, but heavy rainfall is possible. For most of us these showers, which are most likely during the daytime on Friday and into the evening hours, should be manageable. High temperatures on Friday may reach about 80 degrees, but the arrival of the front (likely during the late afternoon or evening) should cool things down overnight.
Saturday
There is a lingering chance of rain on Saturday morning, but I am hopeful that showers will end before the weekend really gets going. That’s another way of saying, if you have outdoor activities planned for Saturday don’t not abandon hope yet. Saturday will start out cloudy and breezy, with northerly gusts up to 25 mph. By the afternoon hours, however, we could start to see some clearing of skies. Lows on Saturday night look chilly, possibly dropping into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. We shall see.
An early look at low temperatures for Sunday morning. (Weather Bell)
Sunday
This still looks like a splendid day, with mostly sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and low humidity. Lows on Sunday night should drop into the 50s again.
Next week
Most of next week should see temperatures in the lower 80s, or thereabouts. I don’t think we’ll get as hot or as humid as we’ve been this week. Some rain chances may return during the second half of the week.
In brief: Houston is about to experience its warmest weather of the last six months, but at least there’s an expiration date. Widespread showers on Friday and/or Saturday will usher in a cool front that will bring cooler and drier air. Sunday, at this point, looks especially nice.
The 90s? Great decade. April temperatures, not so much.
As a member of Generation X, I’m firmly of the belief that the 1990s were the best decade. We balanced the budget, won the Cold War, had some great Thursday night television, and the internet was in its youth—a place of wonder before smart phones and social media. However that does not mean I’m a fan of 90-degree days in April.
Houston got close on Saturday, with a mark of 89 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Sunday was a shade cooler. If not today, then Tuesday or Wednesday is virtually certain to hit 90 degrees. If we look at data over the last 60 years (when the city’s official meteorological station has been located at Intercontinental Airport) Houston has recorded its first annual 90-degree day as early as February and as late as June. The average first 90-degree day has been May 2 (this coming Saturday).
Graphic showing earliest and latest 90-degree days since 1968. (NOAA)
So we are not particularly early with temperatures in the 90s this year. And the good news is that we really do have a nice-looking cool front on the way for this weekend. So although summer is indeed coming, it is not here yet to stay.
Monday
We are starting out this morning very warm, in the mid- to upper 70s, and muggy. Skies are mostly cloudy but by mid-morning we should start to clear out. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid-80s near the coast to around 90 degrees for inland areas. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon. Rain chances are near zero, but if a capping inversion breaks we could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms later today. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid-70s.
High temperature forecast for Wednesday. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday and Wednesday
These will be the warmest days of the week, with inland areas possibly seeing highs in the lower 90s. Tuesday should be the sunnier of the two days, with a few more clouds on Wednesday. Humidity levels remain very high. Both days, again, will carry a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances are probably only 10 percent each day. These will be our region’s warmest days in half a year.
Thursday
A weak front will approach the area on Wednesday evening, and this may lead to some slightly cooler weather, perhaps bringing highs down to the mid-80s. We are going to see some much better rain chances to end the work week, but it’s not clear to me that we’ll see much more than a smattering of showers on Thursday. We’ll see. Overnight lows should drop to around 70 degrees.
Friday and Saturday
By Friday an increasingly disturbed atmosphere should lead to widespread showers, maybe during the daytime or maybe not until later in the afternoon or evening with a frontal passage. Overall the setup does not look super favorable for severe weather, but it’s too early to make that determination. What does seem likely is widespread showers starting some time on Friday and lasting well into Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will likely peak in the upper 70s, with highs on Saturday perhaps not pushing out of the upper 60s. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the 50s as rains end.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday night. (Weather Bell)
Sunday
At this point, with the knowledge that things could change, Sunday looks like it could be a really fine day. Skies are likely to be mostly sunny, with mild temperatures in the 70s, low humidity, and light winds. It’s an early candidate for one of the 10 nicest days of the year. We’ll see. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the 50s again for most of Houston.
Next week
Houston should start out in the 70s next week before returning to the mid-80s. I don’t think we’re going to get back to the 90s, but we shall see!
