In brief: In today’s post we discuss our somewhat cooler-than-normal start to the month of May. Alas, it won’t last. After some lower humidity to start the week, dewpoints and overnight lows will rise considerably as we get into the weekend.

Stickier weather ahead

Through the first 11 days of this month the city of Houston’s average temperature has been 72.3 degrees, which is running 2.4 degrees below normal. We have had several nights in the 50s and lower 60s, along with a couple of fronts. All of this has given us a nice start to the month, and perhaps led some of us to forget that we are right on summer’s doorstep.

That will change later this week. Our moderately cooler nights and somewhat drier air will hang around through Wednesday or Thursday. But by this weekend a much muggier pattern returns to the area. We’re talking about daytime highs in the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees. However the impact will be even greater at night, with very sticky conditions and lows only dropping into the upper 70s.

So if you enjoy more moderate conditions during the mornings and evenings—which I certainly do—today and Wednesday are your best bets.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Houston will enjoy a light, northerly flow today and Wednesday, and this will bring us continued fine weather for May. High temperatures today will likely be in the mid-80s, followed by the upper-80s on Wednesday. Both days will be sunny. With dewpoints in the low 60s our humidity is not exactly low, but it will still be quite a bit more comfortable than it will be by this weekend. Mornings and evenings will remain quite pleasant, and we can expect overnight low temperatures to fall into the upper 60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These will also be days with sunny to mostly sunny skies, but the air probably will be a bit more humid as our flow turns southerly. Expect highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, with nighttime temperatures in the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

As we head into the weekend Houston’s weather will turn more humid. With more atmospheric moisture I also expect partly to mostly cloudy days, although there will still probably be some afternoon sunshine about. This will likely determine how high temperatures get, but generally they probably will top out in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Nights will only drop down into the upper 70s, so yeah, we aren’t going to cool down much. Rain chances are not zero, but they probably are about 10 percent so you should be good to go for outdoor activities.

Next week

In the most likely scenario we will remain warm and muggy. However beginning Monday our atmosphere may turn somewhat more disturbed, and this would open our region up to some better rain chances.

In brief: As Houston’s weather turns calmer on Monday, we take a brief look at what to expect when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off in three weeks. We also look ahead to mostly sunny skies and hotter temperatures later this week in Houston. The weekend looks fine.

Storms pass, check your calendar

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a front moved through the Houston region overnight, lighting up the sky with thunder and lightning. Rainfall amounts varied widely across the region, with some locations picking up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall and others virtually nothing. The bulk of this activity is now nearly all offshore, although there may be some lingering showers today, especially for areas south of Interstate 10 in Houston.

Also, of note, we are now three weeks from the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. We are going to have our official preview later this month, but this morning our companion website, The Eyewall, digs in to the data this morning and looks at what a strong-ish El Niño would mean for Atlantic hurricane season. One concern is that waters in the Gulf of Mexico, heading toward the start of this season, are significantly warmer than normal. This may offset some of the dampening effect that El Niño would otherwise have.

Monday

The vast majority of showers associated with the cool front have now moved offshore, and for inland areas this probably is the end of rainfall for today. However, for coastal areas a chance of showers will linger for much of today, even as skies turn partly sunny. Highs will likely reach the mid-80s this afternoon. Winds will be from the north, at 5 to 10 mph. This should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 60s tonight outside of the urban core of Houston, which will be a touch warmer. This is not “cold” weather by any means, but as we get deeper into May fronts become more scarce. As fronts become weaker they are best enjoyed outdoors during the morning and evening hours.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly sunny day with moderately drier air. Expect highs in the mid-80s and light northeasterly winds. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be a bit warmer.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

High pressure will build somewhat during the second half of the week, leading to partly to mostly sunny weather with warm temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Humidity rebounds as well. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower 70s in Houston. This is not summer yet, but we’re approaching its outskirts.

Saturday and Sunday

We may start to see some more cloud cover this weekend (not sure), but high temperatures should still solidly remain in the upper 80s. Lows will remain muggy, likely increasing to the mid-70s. After Monday Houston’s rain chances will be near zero this week, but they may start to creep back up by Sunday afternoon or evening. Anyway, most outdoor activities should be fine this weekend if you’re prepared to sweat.

Next week

Most likely Houston will remain on the warm and muggy side next week, with the change being that rain chances likely return at some point.

In brief: Today will be mostly sunny, with temperatures warming into the upper 80s, and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon or evening. However an advancing front tonight will likely trigger widespread storms.

Happy Mother’s Day! I hope moms everywhere are being spoiled today. I am spoiled with a great mom, a wonderful wife and mother of our two daughters, and an amazing mother-in-law. Raising children is not easy, but these moms have all done a great job.

Fortunately, for most of today, the weather will be just fine to celebrate our mothers. After a cloudy start we are seeing clear skies, and sunshine will prevail for the rest of the day. It will get fairly warm, with highs across Houston generally ranging from 85 to 90 degrees this afternoon.

Some of this heating is due to compression, which is driven by an advancing front. This will provide a focus for increased storm activity later today and tonight. By late afternoon or early evening I expect to see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the northern half of the region, and some of these storms could become severe. Threats include damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and possibly a tornado. For most of us, however, things should remain fairly calm.

By around midnight, give or take, we should see a more well defined line of storms form to the northwest of Houston (i.e. Brazos Valley and College Station area). This line of storms will then move fairly quickly from the northwest to southeast, pushing off the coast by or before sunrise on Monday. We are fairly confident that this line of storms will hold together for areas northwest of Houston, and probably all the way down to the Interstate 69/Highway 59 corridor in the city. After that it may weaken as it approaches the coast (or maybe not).

Regardless, you should be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather overnight. Since this is not a slam dunk, we are only going to a 7 out of 10 on our excitable dogs scale. But if things line up, the thunder, lightning, and wind from these storms may jolt you awake tonight. Again we are concerned about hail and damaging wind gusts, although we cannot rule out a tornado. In terms of rainfall, since the storms will be fairly progressive, most areas should see 1 inch or less, although there will likely be some higher bullseyes.

Much calmer weather will arrive by Monday morning, and prevail through much of the week.

In brief: After a few calmer days, the potential for rainfall, and possibly some stronger thunderstorms, returns to Houston on Friday and Saturday. The storms will be hit or miss, but worth looking out for. Expect hotter and sunnier conditions on Sunday before a slightly cooler start to next week.

Overall setup

The atmosphere will become more favorable for showers and thunderstorms beginning today, with plenty of moisture and a series of disturbances. But unlike some of our recent rainy patterns, this one will produce much more scattered activity rather than widespread activity. Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to as showers and thunderstorms could become briefly intense. In terms of rainfall accumulations, I think they will be widely variable, with some locations picking up a tenth of an inch or two, and others up to an inch or two of rainfall. Bottom line: rainfall and storm disruptions are possible on Friday and Saturday, but they are far from guaranteed.

Friday

Conditions today will be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, and light winds mostly from the southeast. We are seeing some storms north of Houston this morning, in places like Brenham, Navasota, and Willis. Some of our high-resolution modeling indicates the focus of this activity will shift to the south of I-10, closer to the coast, later today. I’m making no predictions with confidence. Rain chances continue overnight, with lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday

Rain chances on Saturday are, again, about 50 percent area-wide for much of the daytime and into the evening. We should see a little more sunshine, and this probably will allow high temperatures to reach the mid-80s. If you have outdoor plans they could be perfectly fine, but you should have a back-up option in case showers and thunderstorms quickly roll in. Rain chances slacken a bit overnight, heading into Sunday morning.

Sunday

Skies on Sunday should be mostly sunny, and this will be a warm to hot day in the upper 80s for the region. A few inland locations may touch 90 degrees. Rain chances are about 10 percent during the daytime, but will increase a bit later on Sunday evening and overnight as a weak front approaches the area.

Next week

The first half of next week will see moderately cooler and drier weather, with high temperatures in the mid-80s and low temperatures in the mid-60s. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny and the humidity will be slightly lower. This is by no means chilly weather, but compared to what is coming soon with Houston’s summer, it won’t be unpleasant at all—especially mornings and evenings. Houston probably will get back into the upper-80s by the middle of next week with more humid conditions. Overall, rain chances look to be pretty low until at least the end of next week.

We’ll be back with you on Monday morning, unless storm activity today or Saturday becomes more widespread and intense than we presently anticipate, in which case we’ll keep you updated.