In brief: We’re continuing to struggle with the details for the forecast this weekend. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Saturday, but they’re far from a slam dunk. Sunday looks sunny and warmer.

Thursday

A weak front has pushed into Houston, and as a result we’re seeing slightly cooler conditions this morning. Some outlying areas, such as Conroe, are in the low 60s while most of the rest of the region has dropped into the mid- to upper-80s with slightly drier air. This is about the maximal extent of the front, which will eventually drift back onshore. Conditions overall today will be fair, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and modestly lower humidity. Rain chances are near zero. Winds shift from northeast to easterly later today, so we can expect a warmer night, with lows perhaps dropping only to 70 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

The front will essentially move back onshore and serve as a focus for rainfall, some of it possibly heavy, on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday. It’s not a slam dunk, however. In fact I think there’s a solid chance of a busted forecast, which if you’ve been reading my daily updates all week, you know I’ve been struggling to make sense of the data.

Most likely, what I think will happen is that we will see scattered showers on Friday. Then, possibly on Friday night or early Saturday, a more organized round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, followed by more scattered showers during the daytime on Saturday. But am I confident in this forecast? I am not. I could easily see most of Houston picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Saturday night, and I could easily see most of Houston picking up 0.1 to 0.3 inches of rain during this period. Severe weather appears to be a low-end possibility, so I’m not really concerned about that. Fortunately Matt is on the schedule to write Friday morning’s update, and it will be his responsibility to sort all of this out for us.

As for temperatures, humidity levels will recover quickly, but clouds should limit high temperatures. I think we’re looking at highs near 80 degrees on Friday, and a little warmer on Saturday.

Sunday

Following a string of cloudier weather, we’re pretty confident that this will be a warmer and sunnier day. Most of the area can expect to reach the upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies. Winds look light. For outdoor activities this weekend, Sunday looks to be the day. Lows on Sunday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Monday and beyond

This should be another partly to mostly sunny day, with a weak front moving into the area (this probably will not bring too much rain with it, if any). Highs should be in the mid-80s. Lows on Monday night could drop into the 60s. Most of next week likely will see highs in the 80s, with partly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Overall rain chances appear to be fairly low but they could rise as we get toward, or into next weekend.

In brief: We’ve had a lot of questions about weather for this upcoming weekend, and the forecast keeps changing. We explain why. At this point there appears to be a solid chance of rain on Saturday and sunnier and hotter conditions on Sunday. But no promises!

Why is the forecast uncertain?

There are some patterns, such as high pressure in the summer, that allow us to confidently forecast conditions in Houston out to 10 days, at least. Similarly, in the winter-time, we can pretty clearly see when cold fronts are going to arrive and then depart the region out a week or more. However there are other times when the overall picture is murkier, and this week is one of them.

At present, generally, we have low pressure overhead or nearby, which is conducive to stormier patterns. We also have ample moisture at the surface, as you can tell if you step outside and feel the humidity. However this is not a slam dunk for precipitation, as we have pockets of drier air higher up in the atmosphere. Moreover there is a capping inversion (we discussed this more in our recent Q&A) that could inhibit what would otherwise be a stormy afternoon today.

If you add this all up you have a low-confidence forecast and a frustrated meteorologist.

Wednesday

So … today. We’re starting out warm and muggy, and we’re going to get warmer, as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s even with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a slight, perhaps 20 or 30 percent, chance of showers throughout the daytime across the region. By this afternoon, ahead of a front, we may see some stronger thunderstorms. Emphasis on maybe. If the cap holds, there won’t be much. If it breaks, we could see severe weather with hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. I expect the capping inversion to win out, but be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather this afternoon or evening, especially in Montgomery County and points north. A weak front pushes into the area this evening, bringing somewhat drier air after midnight. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

Whereas Thursday once looked to be fairly rainy, it now does not. I’d say there is maybe a 20 percent chance of mostly light showers, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees and plenty of cloud cover. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the upper 60s, with an ongoing chance of light rain.

Friday and Saturday

A low pressure system moves into the area on Friday, and this probably will serve as a focus for widespread rainfall. But again, there is some real uncertainty here. I could see most of the region picking up about 1 inch of rain, or I could see a scenario in which showers and thunderstorms are much more scattered. This system hangs around overnight and into Saturday, so there will be a healthy chance of rain overnight and for much of the day on Saturday. Again, these showers could be fairly scattered, or more widespread. The chance of severe weather is pretty low. Highs on Friday will be about 80 degrees, and by Saturday we’ll be into the mid-80s.

Sunday

The chance of showers does not go away entirely on Sunday, but it is much reduced. I think we’re also going to see a real chance for some sunshine on Sunday afternoon, so this should allow high temperatures to pop up into the upper 80s.

Next week

Monday looks pretty hot as well, but another weak front arrives on Tuesday (probably) to slightly cool us down and bring a modicum of drier air. Most of next week, at least before the weekend, should be rain-free.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our rapidly rising dewpoints, and how a weak front will only modestly knock them down. Our rain chances this week have shifted a bit, with Thursday and Friday now the most likely days. The latter half of this weekend looks pretty darn warm.

Dewpoint recovery

The main reason why the weather felt so comfortable this past weekend was an uncharacteristically sharp drop in dewpoints for early May. Technically, the dewpoint is the temperature to which air must be cooled for it to become saturated with moisture. But more generally they’re easy to understand this way: Dewpoints in the 40s and below mean the air feels dry and refreshing. The 50s are comfortable, whereas the 60s start to feel somewhat humid, and 70s and above are rather muggy. I don’t even want to talk about dewpoints in the 80s, but in a month or two we’re probably going to have to.

This weekend dewpoints in Houston reached the 40s on Saturday and Sunday before rising into the 50s on Monday. All of this felt rather comfortable. But this morning dewpoints have recovered to about 70 degrees for most of the region, and by Wednesday they’ll be in the mid-70s. So yeah, it’s going to feel humid for the next couple of days before a weak front brings some very slight relief.

Tuesday

In addition to rising humidity, temperatures today will also be climbing. How warm will depend on how much clouds break up this afternoon. For most of us, temperatures will range from the low- to mid-80s, but sunnier spots could rise into the upper-80s. It’s also going to be breezy, with gusty winds from the south as high as 25 mph later this morning. Rain chances are less than 10 percent. Clouds return this evening, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday will be another humid day, with highs likely reaching the mid- to upper-80s. With increasing moisture levels we are going to see some scattered showers, but I don’t think it will be anything too serious. A cold front will approach the region later on Wednesday, but the overall trend in the models has been slower. Therefore, although some storms may be possible Wednesday night, it now appears as though this activity will be delayed into Thursday morning when this front sags into Houston. So, bottom line, it looks like the best chance for rain and potentially storms will come on Thursday in association with the front. In terms of accumulations most of us will probably get 1 inch or less, so flooding does not appear to be a major concern. But we’re going to keep an eye on things because a slow moving front and ample moisture can always cause some problems. Highs Thursday should top out in the upper 70s with lows Thursday night should be a little cooler, perhaps in the 60s.

Friday

A healthy chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms lingers on Friday, with mostly cloudy skies and highs near 80 degrees. The air will be slightly less humid (i.e. dewpoints in the 60s).

Saturday and Sunday

I’m starting to have a little more confidence in the weekend forecast, but don’t write things down in ink just yet. Saturday should be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. So at this time I’m cautiously optimistic that things look good-to-go for most outdoor activities. Sunday looks pretty hot, with highs inching up toward 90 degrees, depending on the extent of sunshine we see. There will be at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

Next week

It’s possible that a weak front makes it through Houston on Monday or so to bring us some cooler air, or maybe not. Now that we’re into May, cold fronts become a lot more uncertain this far south. So we’ll have to wait and see.

In brief: After stunning weather across Houston this weekend, we return abruptly to reality this week with rising humidity levels and warmer weather. Beginning on Wednesday we’ll also see rising rain chances that may linger into next weekend.

Peak weather

This weekend’s weather was not perfect for everyone, or every activity. For a beach day, you might want it a little warmer. For long-duration running, maybe you’d want things a little colder. But for being outside, for working in the yard, taking a walk, or watching the sunset—this weekend was perfect. We had clear skies, low humidity, cool mornings and pleasant days, and after Saturday morning modest winds. With these four conditions, Houston hit the quadfecta. Not only that, the weekend came after some super helpful rainfall that knocked most of the region out of a months-long drought. It felt good.

I am confident in saying this will be Houston’s nicest weekend for at least the next five months, and probably longer. Given that both Saturday and Sunday had exceptional weather, it was probably was the nicest wall-to-wall weekend we will have all year. I hope you found some time to spend outside.

Monday

We are going to have one more sunny day before our skies turn mostly cloudy for awhile. Winds have already shifted to come from the southeast, and this morning’s light breeze will pick up this afternoon to come from the southeast, gusting up to 25 mph. Expect sunny skies with a high temperature of around 80 degrees, or perhaps a touch warmer. Humidity will steadily rise throughout the day and accordingly our lows tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

A warmer and more humid day with high temperatures generally in the mid-80s. Skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy. The onshore flow will become even a little stronger, with southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph. As a result of this flow the moisture levels in our atmosphere will increase, but I think any rain showers will hold off until at least Tuesday night or Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will only fall into the mid-70s.

Wednesday

A cool front will approach the area from the north, and if you read ‘Tuesday’ section of today’s post you’ll know that with all the southerly winds we’ve been pumping up the available moisture for showers and thunderstorms. The front will disturb the atmosphere enough such that there is a low-end chance for some severe weather later on Wednesday, especially for areas north of Interstate 10. So there’s the possibility of some showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then the front itself will probably sag into the region Wednesday night. Bottom line: there’s a fair bit of uncertainty in rain amounts and temperatures. For now I’ll predict highs in the mid-80s on Wednesday, with overnight lows dropping to around 70.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather to end the week is going to depend where you live (i.e. further from the coast, a better chance of lower temperatures and slightly lower humidity). Basically I would expect highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees and lows in the 60s. Both of these days will also have a heathy chance of rain, perhaps 50 percent each day. Overall accumulations through Friday will probably be on the order of 1 inch for most of us, but there will be some wide variations. Anyway, if you have outdoor plans from Wednesday through Friday some caution is advised, as a lot of questions remain.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances are not going away this weekend, but whether they’re 20 percent for both days, or 50 percent, I just cannot say with this unsettled pattern. I think we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs will likely be in the vicinity of the low-80s with lows in the 60s or perhaps lower 70s. Stay tuned for a better weekend forecast, because we’re just not there yet.

Next week

It’s possible that another weak front arrives early next week, and this should help keep our temperatures in the lower 80s, with maybe a cooler night or two. Daily rain chances do start to look lower after next Monday or so with the potential for more sunshine. We’ll see!