In brief: Houston’s weather has been largely unchanging in recent weeks, but that pattern is about to break. We expect widespread rain showers this weekend, and this will be our best chance of denting Houston’s emerging drought in a long time. We also are looking at the likelihood of fall-like weather later next week.

A forecaster’s lament

I have a love-hate relationship with boring weather in Houston. On one hand, it’s extremely easy to forecast conditions when you have high pressure sitting on top of your head in October. Basically, every day features sunny and warm-to-hot conditions, with warm nights. So yeah, it’s easy to be right. And who doesn’t like to be right?

However, it becomes pretty boring to write about that kind of a pattern every day (sometimes we must take drastic measures to relieve the tedium, like a GIF-based forecast). Moreover, as someone who lives in Houston, it is boring to experience the same weather every day, especially when we are supposed to be transitioning from summer to fall. Variety is the spice of life, and all that. Well, I’m here to tell you that this transition is happening finally, so buckle up.

Tuesday

We’re going to see another partly to mostly sunny day today, with high temperatures likely reaching 90 degrees for most of the region. (There’s a non-zero chance this is our final 90-degree day of 2025, but I don’t want to jinx anything so pretend I did not write that). A weak front will arrive later today, and it will bring a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms with it. The best chances will be east and southeast of Houston, particularly in areas near Galveston Bay, this afternoon and early evening. The front will usher in some drier air, and lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Wednesday

This will be a sunny and pleasant day, with mostly dry air and highs of around 80 degrees. It’s not precisely clear how long the drier air will hold over Houston, and this means we have some uncertainty about how chilly Wednesday night will be. I’m going to be optimistic and say much of Houston drops to around 60 degrees by Thursday morning, but if our dewpoints rise more quickly, it’s going to be a more humid and warmer night.

Thursday

This should be another mostly sunny day, but highs will be a little warmer, likely in the mid-80s for most locations as the onshore flow resumes. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the lower 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

An upper-level low pressure system will approach, and move through the region this weekend, and with abundant atmospheric moisture to tap it is going to bring our best chance of rain in many weeks. Friday should start out mostly sunny, but we’ll see building clouds during the afternoon. Late Friday night through Saturday night is when I expect to see the best chance of rain, with the potential for some thunderstorms. The entire region should see precipitation, and the models have become more bullish overnight. I’m projecting about 2 inches of rain for most people, but totals will vary widely and there is the potential for higher accumulations. Rain chances will fall on Sunday, perhaps to around 40 percent, before things clear out. The weekend will see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees with mild nights near 70 degrees.

Next week

Most of our model guidance is still pointing toward the arrival of a fairly strong cold front by around next Wednesday or so. Would I etch this forecast in stone, since it is eight days out? No I would not. But I’m rather hopeful that truly fall-like weather is coming during the second half of next week. Details to come as our confidence increases.

In brief: In this morning’s post we dig into the data to find that yes, this October definitely still ‘feels’ like summer. Will this ever end? Also, we look ahead to increased rain chances this weekend.

Fall is more than half over, and yet…

You may not realize it, but meteorological fall is already half over. We crossed that threshold last week. But this morning aside—which is lovely!—much of September and October have felt like a continuation of summer. I crunched the numbers this morning, and the average high temperature so far this month, through Sunday, has been 91.3 degrees. If that sounds strikingly warm for October, well, it is.

The normal high during the first three weeks of this month is about 85 degrees. This month’s temperature, through 19 days, is the hottest ever, beating the record of 90.7 degrees (set last year). Compare this to the ‘normal’ high temperature for September, which is 90.4 degrees. So yes, if you’re thinking that large swathes of October have felt like a continuation of summer-like weather, you’re not wrong. If you’re wondering if fall is ever going to arrive, the answer is yes, hopefully a little more than one week from day. More on that below.

Monday

Temperatures this morning range from about 50 degrees in the usual cold spots, such as Conroe, to the lower 70s right along the coast. For most of us, these are the coolest temperatures of the season. However the front that brought this weather to us is already washing out, and we’ll see winds swing to come from the east-southeast today, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph. We’ll also see sunny skies, with highs near 90 degrees, and rapidly rising dewpoints. As a result humidity levels will be higher by this evening, and overnight lows will only drop into the 70s for pretty much everyone.

Tuesday

Another front will push into the region later on Tuesday, and this will bring a slight chance of rain, perhaps 30 percent for Houston, and a little bit higher for coastal areas. This will be humid and warm day ahead of the front with temperatures in the lower 90s for most. Temperatures should fall into the 60s for most on Tuesday night behind the front as drier air moves in.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the 80s. Wednesday will have lower humidity, but Thursday also does not look excessively humid. Wednesday night should see lows drop into the mid-60s (colder still north and east of Houston), whereas Thursday night only falls to around 70 degrees. Rain chances on both days is near zero.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The combination of an upper-level low and the onshore flow will bring a better chance of rain into the forecast for the weekend period. It’s not clear when the best chances will come, but it likely will be between Friday and Saturday night. It’s too early to have much confidence in accumulations, but most of the area could pick up on the order of 1 inch of needed rain through Sunday. In any case, these days should see partly sunny skies with highs in the 80s. Lows will likely be in the vicinity of the upper 60s to 70 degrees.

Next week

The warmer weather will hang on to start next week, but following that there is a a fairly strong signal in the global models for a pattern change, and this is supported by an atmospheric setup that should allow colder air over Canada to move down into the United States. We think this probably will allow a stronger, fall-like front to arrive in our area a couple of days before Halloween. Because this is still 7 to 10 days away we cannot have total confidence, but it does seem likely to occur. This would probably bring us a few nights in the 50s.

In brief: Houston will experience its chilliest night of the season on Sunday, with much of the area dropping into the 50s. But alas, it will not last.

Cold front arrives

Good morning everyone. Just a quick note on a Sunday to say that front pushing into Houston right now is bringing a nice dose of cooler air. Today will be sunny and pleasant, with highs generally in the mid-80s, only marred by occasionally gusty winds from the north. With drier air arriving, we’re going to have a very pleasant evening.

Most of the region has yet to see a night in the 50s so far this season, (our coolest night came on October 11, with 61 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport) but that is in the cards on Sunday night. Areas outside of Houston’s urban core, and away from the immediate coast, should drop into the mid-50s tonight as drier air descends into the region today.

However a southeasterly flow resumes on Monday morning, with the return of muggier air. Another (weaker) front arrives on Tuesday and this will bring us a couple of slightly cooler nights. However we still probably are going to have to wait until next week for the arrival of a truly fall-like cold front. Our confidence in that is increasing, but I’m not ready to sign off on it yet.

Anyway, have a great Sunday, everyone. Just wanted to say if you’ve been looking for fall, it will make a brief appearance tonight!

In brief: Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms will dot the Houston area today and Saturday, although we really, really need some rain. A generally pleasant stretch of weather will follow, with periodic cool fronts reinforcing warm but mostly comfortable autumn weather. Our first real big front of the season may be on the horizon before Halloween.

The first 16 days of October have ended with Houston recording a top 10 warmest front half of the month on record. It’s not just us either. Chicago’s had a top 10 warmest October so far. Atlanta is in the top 20. Miami is in the top 25, and St. Louis ranks third warmest right now. While the West has been cooler and the East Coast near average, the center of the country has remained toasty so far this month. That may be about to change a bit. We may be in line for more fairly nice mornings, warm to perhaps hot daytimes but I think at levels below what we’ve seen so far this autumn. In other words, we’re getting there.

Speaking of temperatures…

If you use the Space City Weather app (and you should), and if you set your city to Houston, those observations come from Bush Airport. If you’ve followed along this summer, you know that the official Houston temperature sensor at IAH has been a source of confusion, amusement, annoyance, conspiracy theories, outrage, and curiosity. To that end, out of an abundance of caution, the temperature sensor at IAH was replaced this week. The previous sensor was reading within what was expected, but given the wide ranging displeasure that has been shared, including by some credible folks on the matter, it’s been replaced. As I noted earlier this summer, we can quibble with the choice of IAH to represent Houston’s official temperature, but that doesn’t mean the sensor itself is wrong. It’s a temperature at IAH, not in your backyard. How that impacts how we view records is perhaps a bit more complicated and contentious but after looking at summer’s data, it does not seem to have made IAH a distinct outlier in the region by any means.

Anyway, for those of you scoring at home, there’s a new temperature sensor in town. Have at the data.

Friday through Sunday

Scattered showers are going to pop up today across the region. We need the rain.

Drought now covers nearly 40 percent of the Houston area, with severe drought now showing up in parts of Colorado and Wharton Counties. If you get a passing shower today or tomorrow, consider yourself fortunate. Expect showers today to behave with the heating of the day, increasing in coverage from morning through afternoon, then diminishing after dark. Showers should maneuver farther inland today so hopefully other parts of the area away from the coast could pick up a scattered quarter to half-inch of rain.

On Saturday, showers will start in the morning again, initially mostly near the coast and west of I-45 out across Katy into Fort Bend County. By the time we get to midday, the focus of the activity should migrate eastward toward I-45 and perhaps east of downtown Houston. Include an umbrella in your plans both Friday and Saturday anywhere in the area, but it is unlikely you’ll need one all day or even most of the day. We probably won’t see severe weather on Saturday, but to our north, there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) in place up toward Lufkin and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) closer to Lake Livingston.

The front itself passes on Sunday morning around sunrise. Right now, we aren’t expecting much fanfare with the front; it looks like a dry passage. We’ll see temperatures and humidity drop off a bit as it does so. The rest of the day looks breezy with sunshine and highs in the upper 80s. It will feel much more comfortable. Some wildfire risk is in place in the area Sunday afternoon, but it does not appear any worse than previous wildfire risk days we’ve had so far this autumn. Just use caution with anything flammable outdoors.

Early next week

Monday looks sunny and pleasant with highs in the upper-80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s. Another front should reinforce this pleasant but not quite “cool” air mass on Tuesday night. It may bring a few showers out ahead of it as humidity attempts to return, but the odds look minimal right now. We’ll hold with mid to upper 80s for highs and generally 60s for lows.

Later next week

I’m with Eric that we could very well see another weak cold front later in the week. It does not appear to be THE fall front just yet, however. There is increasing signal in the modeling that that front will wait until right before Halloween. We’ll either be celebrating the arrival of fall or celebrating its imminent arrival at our Fall Day celebration next weekend. Stay tuned.