In brief: In today’s post we discuss Monday’s rain chances with an area of storms inbound from the southwest. We also look ahead to some of the region’s coldest nights of the season and a pleasant weekend. Finally, today Space City Weather is kicking off its annual fundraiser. Your support is appreciated!

Our annual fundraiser is now live

It’s that time of year. Every November, for three weeks, Matt and I launch a fundraiser during which readers can donate to the website and buy merchandise to directly support our efforts. Your support keeps the lights on at Space City Weather, helps us with the never-ending task of keeping our app current, and helps make everything we do free for everyone, and completely independent.

We’ll have more to say about the fundraiser in the coming days, but for now, you can jump right over to our landing page with more information. Thank you!

Monday

Sunday’s high temperature in Houston reached 66 degrees, our coolest daytime since mid-April. Today will be similar, with mostly cloudy skies helping to keep highs in the mid-60s. These clouds are being driven by a low pressure system in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere, and this pattern should persist through tonight before the upper-level system slides off to the east.

The main question today is whether the Houston region will see some rain. This morning, around sunrise, there is a large area of showers and thunderstorms stretching from Victoria to El Campo, to the southwest of the Houston region. These showers are moving toward Houston, and should reach areas such as Sugar Land and Katy by mid-morning. The rains will gradually spread across the entire region later today, but they will lose some of their intensity as they get closer to the city. Overall most of the area will likely see one- or two tenths of an inch of rain today (less for areas north and east of Houston), with isolated areas picking up more.

Light rain chances persist this evening. Low temperatures tonight will again drop into the upper 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Tuesday

This will be a partly sunny and warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s for most locations with very light northerly winds. There will be a slight chance of light rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the lower 60s.

Wednesday

This slight chance of rain will persist into Veterans Day on Wednesday, but I’m hopeful it won’t be too disruptive for remembrances. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs likely in the upper 70s. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the lower 60s. At some point on Wednesday night, probably after midnight, a cool front will push into the region. I don’t think it will bring any precipitation with it.

Thursday and Friday

These should be mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. The air will be quite dry, and on Thursday we may see some northerly wind gusts of about 20 mph before things calm down. Lows on Thursday and Friday nights will be chilly in Houston, with temperatures likely dropping into the low- to mid-50s. Outlying areas should see some readings in the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring more mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower 70s, probably. We’ll see a gradual warming trend as the onshore flow resumes. Nights will be several degrees warmer, but should still feel “cool” in the upper 50s. With the onshore flow we may start to see some lower-end rain chances on Sunday or Sunday night. We’ll keep an eye on those rain chances to see how they develop.

Next week

Overall conditions look fairly mild next week. We probably are in a pattern where highs are in the 70s, and lows in the 50s or 60s, with nothing too extreme. Don’t look now but we’re only two weeks away from the start of Thanksgiving week.

In brief: A tricky forecast awaits Sunday in the Houston area, with at least some rain possible. The heaviest rain seems destined for Laredo or Corpus Christi, however. Look for unsettled weather early next week, but rain totals will vary a good bit across the area between now and then. Some cooler weather this weekend will shift warmer again next week.

Today & Saturday

We kick off the weekend on a positive note today with another generally nice one. Look for sun, a few passing clouds, and highs in the lower 80s. More clouds will impact Saturday, so it will be a bit cooler. We’ll start the day in the low to mid 60s, then warm into the mid to upper 70s with a mix of clouds and sun. No rain is expected tomorrow, but a few spots may see some mist or drizzle.

Sunday

Our most interesting weather day this weekend is Sunday. I will add the disclaimer here that the forecast is subject to change, and if it does significantly change, we’ll post tomorrow or Sunday morning.

The main culprit in the weather risk this weekend will be an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that cuts off from the jet stream over northern Mexico. When that happens, you basically get a slow moving storm system above our heads that allows for periods of rain and storms in spots.

An interesting wrinkle to this forecast is that a day or so ago, it looked like this would cut off and progress east a bit into our area by Sunday. Today it looks as though it wants to hang back some, more toward El Paso and the Big Bend. What this means for Sunday is that we’ll probably see showers around the area, but I am skeptical that we see a washout. Heavy rain is likely near and south of San Antonio or down toward Victoria. The question is whether or not there’s enough oomph to carry that stuff northward toward the Houston area.

So we’ll see how this all shakes out. For now, I’d expect at least some rain on Sunday but your mileage will vary on how much; better odds southwest, lower odds northeast. Highs should be in the 60s to near 70 or so.

Early next week

Shower chances will probably continue into Monday, if not Tuesday in the area as the upper low pushes through. Rain amounts will be quite sporadic with many places seeing little to no rain and others seeing perhaps closer to an inch.

The European ensemble forecast above of total rainfall shows the potential for maybe a half-inch in the Houston area on average. Some places, especially north and east will see less. Some places south and west may see more if the heavier rains can move in on Sunday or Monday. The bullseye for this event looks to be somewhere between Laredo and Corpus Christi.

Temperatures will warm up a bit, back into the 70s with lows mainly in the 50s.

Later next week

I don’t want to speculate too far in advance given that there are a lot of moving parts at the moment, but I would lead toward at least a temporary bump up in temps again toward next weekend with a chance of rain back in the forecast sometime later in the weekend or early the week of November 16th.

In brief: Another nice day awaits Houston before we slip into a more unsettled pattern this weekend. Rain chances look highest on Sunday right now, lingering into early next week. Temperatures will remain mild but not super warm.

The weather since yesterday can best be summed up by good ole Nicholas Cage.

There are few things better than that absolutely refreshing mid-autumn weather. So what’s next?

Today

Look for another sunny day across the region. Some high clouds may come streaming into the area later in the day, but it should be delightful. Highs will be in the low 80s with continued low humidity.

Friday

We’ll close the week out with a mix of clouds and sun. I suppose a shower can’t be ruled out near Matagorda Bay, but for the most part, the region should be dry. Humidity will be up just a little, perhaps not enough to be noticeable, and we’ll likely see highs in the upper 70s to near 80, after a slightly warmer morning.

The weekend

I don’t ever verify a forecast with a forecast, however I want to give Eric credit here. He texted me yesterday and said “AI models bullish on rain this weekend.” Well, that seems to have now extended into other modeling as well.

Just to go on a side tangent here: This is how we use AI modeling in meteorology. It compliments but doesn’t replace the physical modeling, and in some cases it does give us an extra 12 to 24 hours notice on a forecast change or allows us to modify a forecast in some capacity. Also, the “AI” in AI weather modeling isn’t like ChatGPT or Claude or whatever. It’s machine learning: Train a model based on years of history and let it learn physics. Then it can run light years faster and with lower computational intensity than physical modeling requires. Unlike a lot of other AI, it’s actually kind of a cheaper alternative to the physical modeling. Anyway, we use those models here at Space City Weather, and we continue to track improvements and research in the field to make sure we’re consistently using not just the shiniest new toys but the ones that add value.

So, rain you say? I think Saturday is a decent bet right now for a dry day. We’ll start the day off mild, with lows in the upper 50s to maybe 60ish. Expect a good bit of cloud cover and perhaps some sunny breaks. Interestingly, our winds will be out of the northeast on Saturday, which will probably help hold temps down in the mid to upper 70s for highs. Showers are a good possibility later in the day well south of Houston, toward Matagorda Bay and maybe Brazoria County.

Sunday is more interesting, with rain chances expanding into the Houston area, as well as the potential for locally heavy downpours or some thunderstorms south of Houston.

Sunday has washout potential south of Houston. In the city and point north, right now at least, it just looks like passing showers or lighter rain, along with clouds. I will note that there’s still a good bit of uncertainty in this forecast, especially for how much rain may fall south of Houston, so let’s revisit this tomorrow. Temps should be cool on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s.

Early next week

The weekend rain is courtesy of an upper low that will linger over Texas for a couple more days. We may see more rain shower chances continuing Monday and Tuesday. Neither day should be a washout, but there should be at least a little rain and some clouds around. Some cooler air should get dragged into the area as well, leading to lows in the lower 50s, a few upper 40s, and highs in the low 70s or even upper 60s if clouds are persistent.

Later next week

We’ll probably get a couple nicer days for the middle of the week before another chance of rain toward the weekend. Temps should rebound into the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s.

In brief: Houston is enjoying significantly cooler temperatures this morning, in the 50s, with lower humidity. November-like weather should now persist for awhile across the region. The biggest forecast question is whether the atmosphere will line up to support rain showers this weekend, or not.

A sustained pattern change

A cold front arrived on Tuesday, on schedule, bringing much needed rainfall to the Houston region. Not everyone benefitted, but a solid chunk of our area picked up at least 0.5 inch, and some locations received 1 inch or more. Our region’s drought is not over, but these rains (and maybe more in the coming days) should tide us over until the winter, when El Niño should bring us a wetter pattern overall.

In terms of temperatures, Tuesday felt incredibly muggy on Tuesday, and we hit 88 degrees. It tied a record high for this date, so yeah, it was incredibly sultry for early November. This was due in part to a fair amount of sunshine, but also a feature known as compressional heating. Effectively, the front compressed and heated the air ahead of it as it advanced upon Houston.

But now, it’s gone. We may get back close to 80 degrees for highs on Thursday and Friday of this week, but for the most part I expect our highs to be in the 70s, and lows in the 50s through next week. Super nice!

Prediction context

Now that we’re getting deeper into fall and closer to winter, I wanted to provide an update on a prediction contest we announced way back in March. We were having our last really cold night of the season (the temperature hit 33 degrees in Houston) then and I asked you to predict when we might get that cold again. We haven’t gotten close yet to 33 degrees, and I don’t see any likelihood of it for the next two weeks. But I did want you to know I haven’t forgotten about this, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on things!

Wednesday

Today will be gorgeous in Houston. No notes. Expect highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, and low humidity. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

The onshore flow resumes early Thursday, and this will allow temperatures to push into the upper 70s on Thursday, with a little bit more humidity. Skies will be mostly sunny. Another front will push through on Thursday night, and there is a slight chance of rain with this as it moves into Houston (but probably not, as there just isn’t that much moisture to work with). We should see modestly drier air on Friday, with highs in the upper 70s, and lows Friday night around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

Humidity levels will continue to fall this weekend, but I’m still having some trouble pinpointing down the forecast. Temperature-wise, I’m pretty confident in highs in the lower 70s on Saturday, with overnight lows falling into the 50s on Sunday morning. By Sunday we should max out in the 60s for high temperatures.

The thing I’m struggling with is rain chances due to the potential for a low pressure system in the atmosphere to pass nearby. A lot of the modeling keeps it pretty far away, but some of the AI guidance brings it closer to southeast Texas. For now I’m going to go with a 10 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and 40 percent chance on Sunday, but we could just as easily see a couple of partly sunny days with no rain this weekend, or more widespread showers on Sunday. Matt will be along with posts on Thursday and Friday to hopefully sort this out.

Next week

I think Sunday and Monday nights will see some of our coldest temperatures of the season so far, with much of Houston falling down near 50 degrees, and areas further inland likely getting into the 40s. After this we should see a slow warming trend next week, but will likely remain in the 70s/50s pattern through Thursday or Friday, at least. There’s also the possibility that rain chances start to improve later next week, but I am making zero promises there.