In brief: Houston’s weather will behave more typical of January this week, with temperatures both a little cooler and a little warmer than normal at times. Thankfully, it looks to remain on the quieter side of things overall.

First off, you don’t always get Matt on a Monday, but that’s because I’m letting Eric sleep in after setting a personal record in yesterday’s Houston Marathon! What a day for a run, what a day for some new course records. But congratulations to Eric on the achievement, and congratulations to those of you who did any of the events yesterday!

Today

We have a fair bit of middle and upper level cloud cover passing through the region today, so it’ll be one of those “sunny in name only” days. Look for intervals of sun and clouds. Temperatures should manage about 58 to 61 degrees this afternoon on average. Winds will be on the lighter side.

For those of y’all watching or going to the Texans game in Pittsburgh tonight, it looks chilly and breezy. If you watched the games in Philly or New England yesterday, you saw the winds and their impacts. In Pittsburgh, winds will be lightening up this evening, with temperatures falling from the mid to upper-30s to the low or mid-30s during the game. Go Texans!

Tuesday

This is our first kinda-sorta interesting weather day this week. The overall picture is straightforward: We’ll continue with these higher clouds. Temperatures should be a couple degrees cooler tomorrow, as cloud cover may be more prevalent. We will probably either squeeze out a couple showers or some virga (rain that evaporates before reaching the ground). However, with the cooler temperatures and relatively drier air, even with temperatures in the 50s, I would not be at all shocked if someone tags us on social media saying they see sleet/ice pellets at their house, particularly closer to Sealy or the Brazos Valley. There would be zero impacts, but I’m just noting that!

Wednesday

Ahead of our next front, we warm up on Wednesday with temperatures deep into the 60s and perhaps a bit more sunshine.

A cool front hits the area on Wednesday evening, so winds may pick up a little bit overnight (20-30 mph or so). Otherwise, the front should come through with minimal impacts.

Thursday into the weekend

We’ll cool off a bit on Thursday behind the front with highs probably in the 50s across the area and sunshine! Friday looks delightful, with more sun and highs in the 60s. Another front hits the area on Saturday. There’s a little uncertainty on whether or not we can squeeze out a few rain drops or (again) ice pellets with this as it passes through. But even if we do, any precip would be very, very light. Temperatures should again cool down with highs near 60 or in the 50s Saturday, and then low-60s on Sunday.

Overall, this looks like fine, mostly typical January weather for Houston after what has been quite a warm stretch.

In brief: The Houston Marathon starts in less than 18 hours, and I wanted to provide a final forecast update with a few tweaks as you prepare for the race on Sunday morning.

Good afternoon! I hope all my fellow runners are practicing proper carbo loading exercises today in preparation for the marathon on Sunday. I just wanted to call attention to a few tweaks in the forecast for tomorrow morning.

Temperatures: Some of our highest resolution models are trending a little lower in terms of temperatures at sunrise on Sunday. At this time I would therefore predict temperatures at 7 am are closer to 40 degrees than 45, and they will likely remain in the 40s until around 10:30 or 11 am. So you can count on fairly cold conditions throughout the race.

Winds: I’m sure more than a few of you stepped outside into the blustery conditions today and wondered whether these winds are going to persist into Sunday morning. We can confidently say no, they will not. As we’ve been predicting for several days, winds will be elevated in the aftermath of the frontal passage, but gradually settle down. Wind gusts of up to 20 mph will be possible until around midnight tonight, but then should die down. During the race on Sunday morning I expect very light winds at the start while we’re waiting in the corrals. By mid-morning (you know, probably right about the time you hit mile marker 14 and head north on Post Oak) they may pick up to about 10 mph, with some slightly higher gusts from the north. Still, they’ll be nothing like last year.

Skies: I think they’re going to be mixed. I don’t have great confidence in the cloud cover forecast. My sense is that we’ll start out mostly cloudy early in the morning, with gradual clearing throughout the race. But honestly, I’m not sure.

Precipitation: None, unless we’re counting perspiration. In that case, plenty. Good luck, everyone!

In brief: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely today, with a couple storms possibly becoming a little on the stronger to severe side. Cooler air follows this weekend, along with breezy conditions again. Temps stay more seasonable into next week.

Today & Saturday

The area is highlighted in a marginal (1/5) and slight (2/5) risk for severe storms today, with the higher risks the farther north you go.

Today’s severe threat is not a slam dunk case but rather somewhat of a conditional case. In other words, not everyone is going to see severe weather, but if the right set of circumstances can come together, we will see a couple severe storms, particularly north of Houston. All severe modes are on the table today, but gusty winds and potential hail seem like the higher risks. The tornado risk has been highlighted more into northern Louisiana.

Look for scattered showers to pop up over the next few hours this morning. Round one of storms would potentially occur between about 11 AM and 4 PM with isolated storms lifting northward from Harris County or Waller County into Grimes, Montgomery, Walker, Liberty, and San Jacinto Counties. Those are the storms that could turn strong to severe in a couple locations. Things should quiet down before a broken line of thunderstorms moves across the entire region this evening, probably before midnight. With those storms, we don’t expect severe weather but we will probably see some gusty winds and lightning. Also, given that it’s a broken line of storms, some of you may not see anything at all. Let’s hope most of us get a little rain today, as we need it!

It’ll turn breezy tonight behind that front. The winds may lag the line of storms by a few hours, but by Saturday morning we should see 30-35 mph wind gusts across most of the area. A few 40 mph gusts are possible Saturday with the initial onset of winds. Winds should slow down a bit in the afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures. After mid to upper 70s today, we’ll drop into the 60s tonight and 50s for most of tomorrow.

Sunday’s Houston Marathon

For those of you all running the Houston Marathon (good luck, Eric!!), your race time forecast is temperatures around 42 to 45 degrees at 7 AM, warming to 52 to 55 degrees by midday. Temps may be slower to warm up if cloud cover sticks around too, which is a distinct possibility at this time. Winds should be out of the north around 5 to 8 mph, with perhaps a couple of gusts up to 10 to 15 mph. I am guessing that miles 12 to 18 could be mildly irritating with the wind in your face much of the time. But thankfully it should not be too terribly strong.

Rest of Sunday and next week

No serious weather concerns will be with us into next week. It looks like we’ll see temperatures a bit more seasonable as well. Highs will generally be in the 60s. We could see lows in the 30s on Monday morning, but aside from that, we’ll probably see mostly 40s for lows.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the possibility of thunderstorms with a front on Friday night, folllowed by a cooldown that will stick around for awhile. Winter, it seems, really might be here. Also, start line conditions for the Houston Marathon are the best I can recall.

Storms possible Friday night?

Houston’s weather has been mostly calm for awhile now, beyond the very warm conditions we have experienced since early December. However there is a slight chance of some severe weather on Friday night as a fairly robust cold front passes through. We will have a decent amount of shear available, but I just don’t think the overall background conditions will favor widespread, severe weather. So yes, some scattered thunderstorms are likely on Friday night (perhaps around midnight in central Houston), but I don’t expect much more than that.

Thursday

We’re experiencing less fog this morning across the region, and that’s largely due to more pronounced southerly winds. They’re currently blowing at 10 to 15 mph, and we may see some stronger gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but since the air mass moving in from the south will be warm and muggy, I still expect some parts of our area to hit 80 degrees. A few scattered, and light showers will also be possible today. Lows tonight will be very warm for January, in the upper 60s.

Friday

Rain chances improve on Friday, likely to about 60 percent for most locations. We will probably see scattered showers during the daytime. It is possible that a more organized line of showers and thunderstorms will develop later on Friday evening, and pass through Houston during the overnight hours. We’ll see. Regardless, temperatures on Friday will be warm and muggy, likely pushing 80 degrees. By Saturday morning we should be in the mid-50s, with much drier air moving in.

Saturday

This will be a breezy, and much cooler day with temperatures reaching only about 60 degrees during the afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy as well, adding to the chill feeling. A chance of showers may linger during the morning hours. Gusty winds from the north may reach 25 mph, or perhaps even a bit higher, before calming some Saturday night. Lows will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

I was chatting yesterday with a friend and fellow runner, and we agreed that conditions for the Houston Marathon are the best they’ve been in memory. Start-line temperatures will be in the 40s, with a modest northerly wind (probably 10 mph). Humidity will be very low, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain should not be a factor. And temperatures by late morning likely will still only be in the 50s. So now is the time to go for those personal records!

Anyway, for non-runners, we can expect highs by Sunday afternoon to reach about 60 degrees. Sunday night will be quite cold, with lows in Houston dropping to 40 degrees, with mid- to upper-30s for outlying areas. Far inland locations, such as College Station, Huntsville, and elsewhere may see a light freeze.

Next week

Winter should stick around through next week, with highs mostly in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. We may see some rain chances on Tuesday or Wednesday as a reinforcing front moves through, and then again next weekend. The details, as always, are fuzzy at such a distance.