In brief: In today’s post we look at our warm-ish start to April, and how we’re going to turbo-charge that this week before a nice front arrives this weekend. We should be back to seasonal temperatures then, but we’re still trying to read the tea leaves as to whether it will rain with the front.

Warm April nights

So far April is off to a pretty warm start, with an average temperature of 71.4 degrees, a little more than three degrees above normal. But where we have really felt this is with our nights, which are typically in the upper 50s through the first half of April. However, we’ve been mostly in the 60s and 70s. We’re not close to setting any monthly records (through the first two weeks, our average and average minimum temperatures are not in the top 10 warmest of all time). But we are going to take the warmer-than-usual temperatures we’ve seen during the first half of April and super-charge them this week before a front returns us to seasonal conditions this weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days will both be similar, with a strong southerly flow (winds gusting up to 25 mph during the afternoon) bringing warm air and temperatures into the region. Expect highs in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Overnight lows will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas. Although there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, a capping inversion will likely suppress any shower activity.

Thursday and Friday

I expect both of these days to see a little more sunshine, and accordingly I suspect our daily temperatures will push into the upper 80s (although probably not all the way to 90 degrees). Overnight lows remain warm and muggy, and those gusty southerly winds will continue. Rain chances, still, remain near zero with the possible exception of areas along and north of Highway 105.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring some cooler and drier air in the form of a front. But when? Right now I’m thinking Saturday evening is the most likely time. Assuming that’s the case—and to be clear, we are not locked in yet—Saturday should be another warm and fairly humid day with highs in the 80s. I do expect more clouds and a slight chance of light rain during the morning and early afternoon. At some point during the afternoon or evening a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms should drop down from the northwest along with the front. At this point I’m not seeing any signal for severe storms or heavy rainfall (a dry frontal passage is also still possible). This front should push Sunday morning’s lows down to around 60 degrees. Highs on Sunday look to be in the 70s, with lower humidity and partly (to mostly?) cloudy skies.

Next week

I think we’ll see overnight lows, possibly in the 50s, persist through Tuesday morning before we warm up again some, probably back to around highs in the lower to mid-80s by mid-week. Rain chances appear low before next weekend.

In brief: We recap Sunday’s showers and highlight the potential for some isolated storms today. After that we’re warming up this week toward highs in the upper 80s. The weekend forecast is uncertain due to the likely arrival of a front to cool us down for a few days.

Big winners and losers with Sunday’s showers

It’s safe to say that, for areas northwest of central Houston, showers and thunderstorms on Sunday over-performed expectations. Matt correctly predicted on Friday that “the atmosphere will be pretty juiced up this weekend,” but we expected the heavier rainfall to occur a little further north of Houston on Sunday. Instead, a large swath of areas northwest of Houston, such as Sealy, Cypress, and Tomball, generally picked up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, with some very intense bursts of rainfall. Most of the rest of the area picked up below 0.25 inch. We’ll have one more shot at some showers today before most of this week is rain-free. Our next (decent) chance will come next weekend, likely with a front.

Monday

The atmosphere remains fairly moist, and I think we could squeeze out some fairly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Probably only 20 or 30 percent of the area will see rainfall today, but for those that do there could be some briefly strong showers. Otherwise I expect a partly to mostly sunny day with high temperatures in the lower 80s for most locations. Our atmosphere remains plenty humid. This afternoon, and for pretty much all of this week, we can expect gusty southerly winds during the afternoon, perhaps up to 25 mph. Overnight lows remain very warm, around 70 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

We’ll see a warming trend in daytime temperatures this week, with highs eventually pushing into the upper 80s (perhaps 90 degrees for a few inland locations). Each day will see a fair bit of sunshine, with Thursday perhaps the sunniest. Our air remains humid, and our nights warm. Rain chances each day are probably about 10 percent, or perhaps a bit higher for areas along and north of Highway 105, well north of the city of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

I don’t have great confidence yet in the coming weekend, but generally it looks probable that some sort of cold front will move through on Saturday, Saturday night, or early Sunday. Accordingly I expect another fairly warm day on Saturday, with highs likely in the upper 80s. There will be a chance of rain (still too early to say how high) with the front’s passage, and then Sunday should see drier air (assuming the front pushes all the way off the coast) with highs in the 70s. Give us another day or two to fine-tune the weekend forecast, please.

Next week

We should see a couple of cooler nights in the wake of the front, and I’m hopeful that Sunday and Monday nights will both drop into the 50s, but we’ll have to see. Our highs will probably return to 80 degrees, or higher, by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

In brief: Heavy rain has led to a number of flood watches, warnings, and advisories near Houston today. Rain is expected to slowly wind down after sunset.

Apologies for the later than hoped for post. Eric and I have both been engaged in other obligations today.

So far today, some areas west of Houston have seen nearly 5 inches of rain, with a Harris County Flood Control gauge north of Pattison registering over 4.5 inches so far. If you’re traveling north or west of Downtown, just be advised there may be street flooding in spots.

A look at radar this evening shows torrential rain north of Kingwood, tracking north of Liberty. A second area of absolutely torrential rainfall is centered from just south of Spring through Jersey Village down to near Memorial City. Additional moderate to heavy rain continues to the west.

Over the next few hours, this rain is only going to creep east slowly. This almost certainly will not make it to the coast. So, yes, you’re shut out again down there. But across southern Montgomery, central Harris, and areas west of Harris County and northeast into Liberty County, periods of heavy rainfall will continue. The heaviest rain should begin to calm down after 7-8 PM, with showers continuing for a little while longer.

Bottom line: Heavy rain will continue for a little while longer, and street flooding is a good possibility. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but they don’t currently look to be as robust as today. Eric will update more on that for you in the morning.

In brief: Daily rain chances will remain for Houston over the next several days, but admittedly on most of those days it seems unlikely we’ll cash in. While there will be a couple opportunities for legitimate rain chances over the next 6 to 7 days, Central and West Texas may end up in a much better spot than Houston for now.

Side note: We wish the Artemis II crew a safe return, as they splash down this evening (just after 7 PM CT) off the coast of Southern California. The weather looks good.

We hear you, reader. We talk about rain chances more often than we actually seem to get them. It seems true. It feels true. And I don’t disagree. We’ve been in a shaky pattern for several months now where rain chances, especially out around days 3 to 7 look promising, only to disappoint when the bill comes due. Is it drought or a model bias? Both? I’m not totally sure. But I do know that fading the rain chances has worked more often than not lately.

Now, we did see just shy of an inch of rain yesterday near Eagle Lake at a CenterPoint gauge. But that’s way out there in Colorado County. Still, that helps (especially for farmers that are struggling with this constant battle of stress that’s been with us for a few growing seasons now). But for most of us in Houston seeking rain, it’s just been a frustrating go of it. Let’s walk through things based on what we know this morning.

Today

We will see at least isolated to scattered downpours across the area today. Many of you probably won’t see much rain, but some neighborhoods could pick up a quick inch or two. The HRRR model forecast below shows isolated pockets of heavier rain in between a lot of nothing. Don’t focus on the specific locations here, but that’s the general gist of what to expect.

Other than that, expect clouds, some sun, and highs in the lower 80s.

Saturday

Rain chances will probably favor Central Texas over East Texas on Saturday. Still, a few showers are possible west of Houston tomorrow. Highs will be a touch warmer, into the low or mid-80s.

Sunday

More substantial rain chances will creep closer on Sunday, but they may still remain primarily west of Houston. I would expect to see some sort of thunderstorm cluster or line of storms enter the Brazos Valley during the afternoon hours. However, the trajectory of a disturbance in the upper atmosphere and the general southwest to northeast movement of things across Texas this weekend may lead to most of the storm activity passing northwest and north of Houston. I would set my expectations low for Sunday in terms of rainfall, unless you live in College Station or perhaps Huntsville or Lake Livingston.

Those that do see rain could see hefty rain, however, as the atmosphere will be pretty juiced up this weekend. So if you hit a persistent area of rain, just be wary of some street flooding.

Monday

The pattern shifts a bit more eastward on Sunday night and Monday. We should again at least see a smattering of activity around the area, but I would once again set my expectations fairly low. Highs on Monday will be in the mid-80s with lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday

Houston will be caught between a building upper-level ridge in the Southeast that’s going to lead to some impressive, record warmth next week in the Eastern U.S. and a deepening trough in the West. These situations don’t typically lead to us seeing the rain we otherwise could, and it could be a situation where there are daily thunderstorms impacting West and Central Texas, while the Houston area gets the shaft. Obviously, this could change, but again, the theme today is to keep the expectations low. And maybe go wash your car. Yeah. That should do the trick.

Temperatures will remain well into the 80s next week.