For Houston storms possible mid-week, and heavy rains may return by the weekend

After some rather nasty storms on Sunday afternoon and early evening, which brought as much as 3 inches of rain to Friendswood and sparked some tornado warnings, we’ll see quieter weather—for a bit.

TODAY and TUESDAY

We’ll see partly sunny and warm days, with highs rising into the mid-80s today and Tuesday. Over the course of the next two days we’ll see an increasingly strong southerly wind, which will help amp moisture levels back up over the area. On Tuesday we’ll hear a lot about the potential for multiple tornadoes and heavy rain over northern Texas and Oklahoma as a storm system crosses the central United States. It could get pretty bad for Dallas and points north. Houston appears likely to be on the southern periphery of this system. And as it moves eastward it could begin to affect the Houston region.

WEDNESDAY

Thus we will see the potential for thunderstorms and potentially tornadoes move into Houston on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. As you can see from the warning map above, northern areas of the Houston metro area are more likely to be affected than southern regions. With that being said, at this time I am not overly concerned about rainfall totals on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Bigger problems may come later in the week, however.

THURSDAY

We’ll likely see a break in the inclement weather on Thursday, with another warm day in the mid-80s.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY

Another upper-level storm system will move down across the United States, and into Texas. The forecast models are split as to where the heaviest rains will come. The GFS model generally keeps the heaviest rains—5 inches or more—north of Huntsville, whereas the European model brings much of this heavy rain down into the central Houston area.

At this time all I’m comfortable in saying is that, by Friday afternoon or so, the potential will exist for heavy rain, and this will continue through Sunday morning. We just can’t say with any confidence where the heaviest rain will come in East Texas (which includes the Houston metro area). I would add that if you have outdoor plans on Saturday I would at least be thinking about a contingency.

NEXT WEEK

If there’s any good news it’s that the global models are both hinting at a fairly strong cool front to move through during the middle of next week. I’d like to see some more lows in the 50s before the onset of summer so let’s hope that happens.