Month: June 2020

For most of Houston, it’s been two weeks since substantial rain fell across the area. Compounding the problem has been that most days since then have been sunny and hot, allowing for ideal drying of soils. While rains earlier this spring have helped keep Houston out of a drought, the top layer of soils in the region is nonetheless very dry due to recent weather conditions. The map below shows the “percentile” level of moisture in the top 1-inch of soil across Texas. Much of the Houston area is at the 10th percentile or lower, based upon observations by NASA’s GRACE satellite, and a few areas are at 5 percent or lower.

These conditions have not yet sunk deeper into the ground, which would indicate a true drought. But were we to see another week or two of this hot and dry weather, the region would likely enter a drought. Fortunately, it does not appear as though that will happen given the modest pattern change ahead for this weekend.

Thursday

There are no surprises in store with today’s forecast. We can expect hot, humid, and sunny weather, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, light southerly winds, and almost no chance of rain. Lows will be in the mid-70s.

Friday

As high pressure dominates for one more day, we should not expect any substantial changes for Friday’s forecast either. Continued hot and sunny.

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Our hot and sunny weather will continue for a few more days before high pressure moves away, and the pattern begins to—slowly, probably—change this weekend. Any widespread rainfall will likely have to wait until next week, however.

Wednesday

With sinking air, we will see lots of blue skies today. Although a few isolated showers may develop east of the city, rain chances are near zero over Houston, and highs are going to rise into the low to mid-90s. This is the type of pattern that, were we in August, highs would push up near 100 degrees. Winds will be generally light, out of the south at 5 to 10mph. Overnight low temperatures will unlikely fall below the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday

By this weekend, the ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather for more than a week should begin to weaken, and this will allow a more pronounced flow of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. This will eventually lead to development of some clouds and rain showers. But it’s not clear how much of that will happen on Saturday. So for now, expect a partly to mostly sunny day, with highs in low 90s, and perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain.

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As I type this, it is 5:55am and already beginning to get light outside. Some readers will surely disagree, but such early sunrises in June always play havoc with my sleep schedule. Fortunately (for me, at least), we have already passed the earliest sunrise of the year, and beginning Thursday the sunrise time for Houston will move from 6:20am to 6:21am, and grow about 20 seconds later every day.

Tuesday

With decent atmospheric moisture levels in place, we may again see some scattered activity fire up on the radar this afternoon along the sea breeze. Most of the modeling indicates any storms should be fairly short-lived, with better chances to the east and northeast of Houston. The bottom line is that although rain chances are low today—probably around 20 percent or less—they are higher than most of the rest of the week. Highs should reach the low- to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not much to say about these days with mostly sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-90s and lows in the 70s. High pressure will probably prevent any showers from popping up.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern begins to change this weekend as the high pressure system over our region finally begins to weaken, allowing for the development of some scattered clouds on Saturday, and perhaps more widespread clouds on Sunday. This may also lead to some better rain chances in the 30 to 40 percent range, although accumulations looks modest. Highs will remain in the low 90s.

Next week

Both the European and GFS model are indicating the possibility of more rainfall next week, perhaps somewhere in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. It’s possible that we may see some heavy rainfall, but the details are sketchy at this point.

Good morning. High pressure will dominate our weather this week, but it won’t be completely oppressive. Summertime highs typically peak in the upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees in August. But this week, we should see more June-like weather with highs in the low- to mid-90s, with overnight temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Oh, and if you’ve stepped outside this morning, you’ve already noticed that the humidity is baaack. That should be a constant companion for at least the next three months. Speaking of heat and humidity, if you have not yet signed up for Reliant’s AC Sweepstakes, you’re missing out on a chance to win a free AC System.

Monday

Some isolated showers developed to the southwest and northeast of Houston on Sunday, and we should see a similar pattern today as some higher atmospheric moisture levels help a few showers to form. While we will probably see these fast-moving showers this afternoon, most of us will just be sunny. Look for highs in the low 90s with light southeast winds. Overnight lows should fall below 75 degrees for most areas except the coast.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, with a chance of isolated showers popping up during the afternoon hours. Highs should reach the low- to mid-90s. Winds will be calm, to very slight from the southeast. Between the lack of wind, and the high humidity, it will feel very warm during the afternoon hours.

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