I hope everyone is enjoying our mostly sunny weekend. We should continue to see partly to mostly sunny skies today, with highs of about 90 degrees. There will be one noticeable difference, however—winds will pick up out of the south and become a little gusty this afternoon. This is a harbinger of atmospheric moisture levels rising across the area. Still, aside from the potential for a very few, very scattered showers, it should be a quiet day.
Conditions may change tonight as a line of storms associated with a cold front moves southeastward across the state of Texas. These storms could be especially severe in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area on Sunday evening, likely from around 7 to 10 pm. This is something to consider if you’re traveling back to Houston from North Texas tonight.
Severe weather outlook for Sunday and Sunday night. (NOAA)
This line of storms will weaken some as it moves closer to the Houston metro area, pushing through College Station after midnight, and likely reaching the central Houston region by around sunrise or before. The main threat from these storms will be damaging winds and hail. My sense is that the storms will weaken enough to not provide too much disruption to Monday morning’s commute, but please do be aware of the possibility of showers and thunderstorms early on Monday. Things should clear out quickly, regardless.
The other question concerns whether this front pushes all the way through Houston and to the coast. Some modeling now suggests it briefly will move to the coast, giving the region a dash of notably drier air on Monday and Monday night, but it’s going to be close. We’ll know for sure by tomorrow morning’s post.
It’s tough to argue with the stretch of weather we’ve had this week. It’s been warm, certainly, but with pleasant mornings and evenings and generally low humidity, it’s been pretty outstanding. We will have changes beginning this weekend, and those will set the stage for our weather next week.
Today & Saturday
Both days should be sunny and warm. Look for highs near 90° today with generally low humidity. A similar story unfolds tomorrow with perhaps just a few more fair-weather clouds dotting the sky. Morning lows will be in the 60s or low 70s again. The dewpoint, or how much moisture is in the air will be a couple ticks higher tomorrow, so you may notice it feels a bit more humid, especially in the morning. Patchy fog is also possible in the morning.
Two other quick notes: Air quality has been atrocious this week. The combination is two-fold: An inversion (temperatures warming as you go up in the atmosphere) has trapped pollution and smog near the surface in the morning hours leading to an ugly haze. That should continue today and perhaps tomorrow. Secondly: The full sunshine has led to high levels of ozone each day in the area. This isn’t as visible to the eye, but it can trigger some respiratory ailments in people. On top of all this, if you’re a seasonal allergy sufferer (raises hand), you’ve felt it this week. Ragweed is a big problem, as are mold spores. But, I mean, aside from that, it’s been great!
Sunday
Our transition begins in earnest on Sunday. You’ll notice it a couple ways. First, expect sun and a few more clouds. Second, there could be a few light showers around, especially in the morning hours and especially southwest of Houston. The humidity will also be noticeably higher. In addition to all this, you’ll also notice the wind pick up Sunday. We’ve had a pretty lengthy stretch of light or calm winds this week, but onshore flow builds on Sunday with some 20 to 25 mph gusts possible, particularly near the coast. I don’t think this will be so much wind that it will impact Wings over Houston, but it’ll be a noticeable change.
While not particularly troublesome, wind gusts of 20 mph or so will be possible by Sunday afternoon, which is more wind than we’ve had all week. (Weather Bell)
Look for high temperatures on Sunday in the mid to upper-80s after morning lows in the 70s.
Monday
A cold front will take a swipe at the area on Monday, but it will likely come up short, fizzle, and/or quickly retreat back to the north. It will come close enough however to set off a few showers or storms Monday. We aren’t expecting anything too widespread, but some areas may see their first measurable rain in a good while. Look for warm and humid conditions with a continued onshore breeze. Expect mid to upper-80s after morning lows in the 70s.
Midweek
Tuesday through Thursday get a little more murky. The general expectation should be for warm, humid weather to continue. We’d likely see highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s. We would have at least a few showers in the area each day, but I am guessing the atmosphere will be fairly “capped” next week, meaning thunderstorm development would be tough to come by. That’s a typical Houston-area setup in autumn. Clouds and sun would take turns each day, aside from the isolated showers.
Late week
Here’s where the fun begins. When I wrote my post last Friday, I noted that there was no sign of a meaningful cold front for the foreseeable future. I cannot say that this week, however. Model support and evidence is building that a cold front, possibly a strong one, will push through the region sometime late next week or weekend. Over 90 percent of the Euro ensemble members (shown here) and over 50 percent of GFS ensemble members (not shown) have some sort of front pushing through next Saturday-ish.
Model support for a legitimate cold front is increasing for next weekend with lows in the 50s possible once again. (Weather Bell)
Of those Euro ensemble members, about 65% have lows in the mid-50s or cooler possible next Sunday or Monday the 18th. We will see if that can get us into our rhythm for the cool season here, which typically sees a front at least every week or so. Obviously, folks will be watching cold fronts with a little more urgency this year after February’s disaster. It’s still quite early, but we’ll be watching closely through the winter too.
Houston will remain under the influence of high pressure for several more days, allowing Houston’s skies to remain sunny through early next week. The only notable change will be an increase in humidity levels beginning Friday night as the flow becomes more southerly across the area.
Thursday
Conditions today will be similar to what we experienced on Tuesday and Wednesday, with sunny skies, highs near 90 degrees, and light northerly winds. The air isn’t exactly dry, but it’s not humid either. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s inland, upper 60s in Houston itself, and low 70s along the coast.
With high pressure dominating, Houston’s weather will be sunny for awhile. (NOAA)
Friday and Saturday
Basically, more of the same. Saturday will see rising dewpoints but it will still be reasonably nice outside. Highs again will be near 90.
Sunday and Monday
A front approaches the area on Sunday, but in all likelihood it will peter out before reaching Houston. So we should see mostly sunny skies both days, with high temperatures near 90 degrees. There’s a slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, on Sunday night and Monday due to the dying front. Overnight lows will be back in the 70s, area-wide. Hello, humidity!
Low temperatures will be going back up this weekend, as dewpoints rise. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Our forecast becomes a little more uncertain later next week, when there’s a chance some sort of front may work its way through during the middle of the week, or more likely, not until the weekend. In any case, we’ll likely see more clouds and highs backing off a few degrees. There’s a decent chance that next weekend feels more fall-like in Houston, but it’s still too far to have much confidence.
Good morning. Houston’s weather remains exceptionally calm, with light winds, warm temperatures, and moderately drier air. This pattern will persist into the weekend, when the onshore flow returns, and humidity levels rise. Rain chances remain zero through the weekend.
Wednesday
Today will bring sunny skies, and highs in the upper 80s. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 mph or less. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will be feel drier than is typical during the summer, but not exactly dry. Lows overnight will drop into the low 60s for inland areas, mid-60s for Houston, and low 70s for right along the coast.
Low temperatures on Thursday morning will likely be a degree or two warmer than Wednesday. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
More of the same.
Saturday and Sunday
Winds will start increasing from the south and southeast later on Friday and this will start to drive up humidity levels this weekend. Saturday will still feel a tad dry as highs push up to around 90 degrees, but Sunday should feel more like “Houston” humid out there. Skies should be mostly sunny, regardless, with no chance of rain. Plan outdoor activities with high confidence.
Next week
The forecast for next week is written very much in pencil. Low to moderate rain chances return by Monday or Tuesday. A front should near the area during the early part of the week, but will likely wash out before pushing into Houston. A stronger front is likely next weekend, but any details right now are pretty sketchy.
Hispanic Heritage Month
The U.S. Hispanic Heritage Month runs from September 15 through October 15, and recognizes the contribution of Hispanic Americans to the history and culture of our country. Matt, Maria, and I thought we would put a fun spin on this by talking about the history of hurricane names, and why some of them have Hispanic names.
