Month: November 2022

First off this morning, congratulations to NASA and those who have worked so hard on Artemis on a successful launch overnight!

We got the sun back out yesterday after a dreary Monday. We should hold on to at least some sun today, though clouds may at times block it out. The next 8 or 9 days will feature quick moving systems that impact the region every couple days, possibly culminating in a wetter period right around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Those odds have inched up a bit since yesterday. More on that in a second.

Today

We aren’t expecting any adverse weather today, so you can confidently go about your plans without issue. You’ll see both clouds and sun but probably more clouds than sun overall. It will remain chilly with highs only in the mid-50s. A continued breeze at times, especially into tonight, will enhance the chill, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph near the coast.

Thursday

A chilly start to the day won’t get a whole lot better tomorrow. Clouds should dominate early Thursday with more sunshine in the afternoon. A system passing by overhead will bring a non-zero chance for some showers, sprinkles, or light rain, but it would seem most of that should fall well offshore. Highs will be in the mid-50s again.

Friday

As systems continue to move along briskly, Friday should be a mainly quiet day between them. It will be quite cold in the morning.

We’ll warm from the 30s and 40s into the mid-50s. Sunshine should be around in the morning, but it may fade behind increasing clouds through the day. There could be a few showers very late in the day southwest of Houston, toward Matagorda Bay or into portions of Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties.

Saturday

The forecast for Saturday is a bit trickier with a system passing just offshore. This looks like a farther south version of what happened in our area Monday. In other words, most of the heavier rain should stay offshore, but there will be at least scattered showers or periods of rain in the Houston area and points south. Places north of the Brazos Valley or Conroe may see little to no rain on Saturday. That said, trends in recent days have been toward slightly higher rain chances. Rain totals look to be about a quarter-inch or so in Houston, with higher amounts south and lower amounts north. We’ll watch to see if this changes at all.

Expect a good deal of clouds outside of that, with highs in the 50s. A breeze of 15 to 20 mph will be possible, especially near the coast once again.

Sunday

Clouds may linger behind Saturday’s system keeping Sunday cool but dry. Sunshine should gradually break back out though. We should do yet another day of (say it with me again) mid-50s after a morning in the 40s.

Next week

Let’s start with this: Confidence in any specific details for next week’s weather is fairly low. We can speak generally though. Monday looks a bit unsettled with a chance of showers as one disturbance swings through. Tuesday will probably be dry with winds shifting back onshore for the first time in a bit. That will bring clouds and shower chances to the region on Wednesday, especially west of Houston. All that congeals into a storm that drags a front through on Thanksgiving, turning us somewhat cooler for the weekend.

The problem right now is determining exactly how that storm behaves on Wednesday and Thursday, as that will ultimately dictate specifics. Models are split between a very aggressive storm with a chance for strong storms and heavy rain, especially Wednesday night (the European model) and a much less aggressive system with a chance of showers mostly (the GFS model). The European model would have meaningful impacts on travel and events. The GFS model would not. Truth be told, I think our confidence has increased a little in the last 24 hours that at least some portion of the holiday will be wet. Beyond that, we can’t say much else. Stay tuned.

Monday and Tuesday will probably see morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s or low-60s. We could push 70 on Wednesday or Thursday with humidity before turning cooler and drier into the Friday and weekend period.

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Good morning. After Monday’s widespread showers, Houston will now see a prolonged stretch of colder than normal weather, with high temperatures not climbing out of the 50s each day until next Monday or Tuesday. It is unlikely that the metro area will experience a freeze this week, but that is not out of the question for far inland areas. Finally, we’re continuing to watch the possibility of a warm-up next week, and the potential for rainfall just before, or on Thanksgiving.

Tuesday

With a tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of Monday’s cold front, we’ll continue to see brisk northerly winds for much of the day. These winds, and some lingering clouds, will make our “high” temperatures in the mid-50s today feel rather chilly indeed. If you’re wondering about rain chances, they’re mostly nil until this weekend. After gusting to about 25 mph today, winds should die down some this evening, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees in much of Houston. Conditions will be colder still north and west of the urban area.

Wednesday

Wednesday should bring more of the same partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid-50s. Northerly winds will still be present, but more on the order of sustained at 10 mph, and gusts to 15 mph or so. Expect another chilly night in the low-40s in Houston.

Thursday

An upper-level system works its way toward our area on Thursday, so we can expect more clouds to help keep our highs in the mid-50s. There is a slight chance of light rain with this weather system, but mostly we’ll probably just see gray skies. After the upper-level low moves through we should see some briefly clearing skies on Thursday night into Friday morning, and this will probably give us our coldest night of the week. Parts of Houston may see the upper-30s, with a light freeze possible further inland.

Friday

Expect partly sunny conditions, with highs in the mid-50s. Lows will be a few degrees warmer on Friday night, but still dropping into the mid-40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is still kind of a muddle, at least Saturday. There’s the potential for low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico to bring a healthy chance of rain into the Houston region on Saturday, but there’s not a whole lot of consensus in where the models ultimately bring it. For now, I’d say the Houston region has a one-in-three chance of rain, with perhaps slightly higher odds along the coast. Othewise expect mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 50s on Saturday. Sunday should see clearer skies, with low- to non-existent rain chances, and highs in the mid- to upper-50s.

Next week

Monday looks partly sunny, with continued cool weather. However by Tuesday temperatures look to be on the upswing, rising from the 60s to perhaps low- 70s by Thanksgiving. At some point next week, maybe on Thursday night or Friday, another front may swing through to cool things back down. It’s worth noting that there is a fairly strong signal in the global models for shot of rainfall in the Wednesday or Thursday period of next week ahead of said front. So I would be prepared for the potential of some rain, at some point, on Thanksgiving. Whether this ultimately comes to pass nine days from now is a big IF.

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Good morning. Houston will see a brief warm-up today, with a healthy chance of rain showers, before a front ushers in the coldest week of the year since the depths of last winter. And by cold, I mean daytime highs mostly in the 50s, which is really rather chilly for mid-November. So dress warmly.

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Monday

Temperatures this morning are starting out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the Houston metro area. Highs today should reach the mid-60s, and while this may not sound all that warm, it probably will be the warmest weather our region experiences this week with another front on the way. Before this front arrives, however, moisture associated with a low pressure system offshore will help to generate a healthy chance of rain today, mostly from around 10 am to 6 pm. Rain accumulations will be greatest along the coast, where 1 to 2 inches may fall. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. Further inland, amounts will decline to 0.25 to 0.75 inch, approximately, but almost everyone should see precipitation. The front’s arrival late this afternoon and evening will help shove the coastal low away, and bring drier air into Houston. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday

Expect a partly to mostly sunny day, with northerly winds gusting to perhaps 20 or even 25 mph. Highs will be in the mid-50s. Rain chances are zero. Lows Tuesday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Some far northern areas, such as Huntsville, may see a light freeze.

Wednesday

This day will be similar to Tuesday, albeit with a few more clouds, and perhaps slighty less wind out of the north. Normal highs for this time of year are about 70 degrees, but we’re going to be experiencing dead-of-winter conditions this week. Dress warmly!

Thursday and Friday

The cold weather train chugs on to end the work week, with highs in the mid- to upper-50s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will again drop into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions for this weekend remain uncertain. Days are likely to remain chilly, with highs in the 50s. But nighttime temperatures may moderate slightly as skies turn more cloudy. The overall pattern may bring another coastal low pressure system near the region, so we’re looking at the possibility of rain showers from Friday night into Saturday, with the best chances again near the coast. However, it’s too early to have much confidence in the finer details of the forecast beyond saying there’s a 40 percent chance of rain, or so.

Next week

So what does all this mean for conditions next week, and the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 24? Ten days is at the edge of our ability to forecast, however we can say a few things. At this point it appears another front may push into the area early next week, bringing us one more blast of colder air. The details on that are pretty fuzzy, but after this conditions should finally moderate back toward more “normal” weather for late November. By Wednesday or Thursday, therefore, the region may start to see highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s. For Thanksgiving, there is actually a decent signal in the global models for some rainfall but at 10 days out that really is a crapshoot. So my early forecast for Turkey Day calls for somewhat warmer, and possibly wetter weather. But there is a long ways to go, and a lot of turkey puns to write, before we get to a locked-in forecast.

Good morning. We’re jumping in on a Saturday morning to highlight the likelihood of very cold temperatures tonight across the metro area, and the potential for a freeze to the north.

If you’ve stepped outside you already know that it’s rather chilly. This is the result of colder and drier air working into the region during the overnight hours. With brisk northerly winds today, gusting up to 25 mph, more dry air will be moving in today. Highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees. This evening, as winds die down and with clearing skies, we’re going to see ideal conditions for cold weather.

Although I still think the urban core of Houston will remain at about 40 degrees tonight, areas north, west, and east of central Houston will drop into the 30s. Models have been trending colder with this air mass—hence this morning’s update—and we wanted people to be ready. Areas such as Katy, the Woodlands, and Kingwood will probably remain in the mid- to upper-30s tonight. However, areas further inland, including parts of Montgomery County, Brazos Valley, and the Piney Woods, may drop into the lower 30s and have a shot of seeing the region’s first freeze since mid-March.

The rest of the forecast is more or less on track, as Matt described on Friday. Sunday night won’t be nearly as cold and we’ll warm up briefly on Monday, at which point we’ll see a healthy chance of showers ahead of the next cold front. That one will keep things on the chilly side for the rest of next week. And by chilly side, I mean most days will be in the 50s, with lows perhaps around 40 degrees. In other words, inland areas will probably be looking at more freezing chances next week. We’ll have more for you on Monday.

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