Month: April 2023

Good morning. I hope everyone enjoyed the not-too-hot and not-too-cool weather over the weekend. It provided a nice antidote to the rain showers last week which, in turn, provided a nice boost of moisture to help our yards and trees and flowers as we get deeper into spring. This week will see mild conditions before some uncertainty arrives for this weekend. While I don’t envision widespread storms, there is the potential for some rainfall, and possibly thunderstorms.

Monday

Our weather today should be a lot like Sunday, in that we will see partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-70s and a moderate amount of humidity. Winds will again be light, perhaps 5 to 10 miles out of the northeast. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of a light shower later this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland, to go along with mostly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

Our moderate weather continues. You may be asking yourself, why are we seeing a prolonged period of northeasterly winds? Should not the onshore flow resume at some time? The answer is that a low-pressure system is wobbling around off shore, in the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a major concern for us weather-wise, but it will give us a pleasant pattern through Wednesday or Thursday in terms of light easterly-northeasterly winds and moderate humidity.

However, there are some indications that the low may get close enough to the Texas coast on Tuesday and Wednesday to produce some scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, especially for areas south of Interstate 10. Overall chances remain low, however, in the 20 to 30 percent range. Highs will be in the mid-70s, otherwise on Tuesday. Lows drop to around 60 in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

Aside from a moderate chance of showers on Wednesday, these days should see temperatures in the upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Lows may drop into the upper 50s under the influence of the northeasterly flow.

Friday

This day looks warmer, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s. Lows Friday night will be warm, perhaps dropping to only 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re going to have to write the weekend forecast in pencil, I’m afraid. A front will be diving down through Texas, and some of the ingredients needed for a line of storms will be present, including instability. However at this point there is no slam dunk in terms of such conditions, and the front could pass through Saturday night or Sunday morning with a minimum of fuss.

The bottom line is that right now I can confidently predict warm conditions on Saturday, with highs somewhere in the 80s. There is also a healthy chance of rain. I’ll put in 50 percent as a placeholder, but it could go higher, during the daytime and evening, ahead of the front. Lows on Saturday night will depend on the timing of the front.

After the front’s passage, beginning Sunday and probably lasting through Tuesday, conditions look pleasant, with mostly sunny skies, highs perhaps in the upper 70s, and cool but not cold nights.

Well, we hope everyone got some sleep last night. For parts of the area, it was quite the noisy evening. Here’s the rainfall since yesterday evening:

Rain totals since yesterday evening have been certainly manageable by Houston standards with the main issue being minor street flooding and/or ponding. The heaviest rain fell from near Memorial Park through Alief into Sugar Land, with about 2 inches, give or take. Galveston received around an inch of rain, but it’s also been quite breezy there, with winds gusting as high as 49 mph (before 2 AM). We fortunately missed out on extreme rainfall yesterday and overnight. That hit just south of Lake Charles, where as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain fell.

Today starts the transition out of this wetter pattern, setting up a cloudy but overall fair Easter weekend.

Friday

We think the worst of the rain is over for Houston. However, that doesn’t mean all the rain is over. Expect off and on showers, drizzle, or light rain today across the area. Our higher resolution modeling is trying to fire back up a period of slightly heavier rain and storms later today to the west of Houston. So I would not be shocked to see one more round of perhaps some moderate to heavy rain and thunder later today or this evening.

With all that said, we will discontinue the Stage 1 flood alert. We do think some minor ponding is still possible, especially in areas that have seen a good bit of rain since Wednesday, but for the most part, we should be able to manage what’s left to come without too much trouble. As always, use care with the wet roads.

Outside of rain, today looks cloudy and cool. Temperatures will warm only a bit from where they’re currently sitting (50s from Houston N & W, 60s S & E of Houston).

Saturday & Sunday

We can’t completely rule out rain tomorrow, but at this point it looks like any chances will be mostly in the morning and mostly minor in nature. Expect a good deal of clouds for Saturday, with morning lows in the 50s, warming into the low-70s.

The biggest problem this weekend will be cloud cover. We are going to have a lot of low level moisture “trapped” under an inversion (or “cap”) in the atmosphere. In addition, we’re going to have middle and high level clouds overhead too. On Sunday, we lose those higher clouds, so hopefully the sun will scour out some of the low clouds during the late morning or afternoon.

So, for Easter Sunday, expect morning clouds giving way to some afternoon sunshine. We’ll have morning lows, as seen above, generally in the 50s to low-60s. The afternoon will depend on sunshine, but we will call it mid-70s on average for now. Rain chances won’t be quite zero, but they are low.

Monday & Tuesday

For Monday, we may be able to squeeze out a few showers in the area, but skies will be partly sunny for the most part. Morning lows will be near 60, with highs in the mid-70s once more. Tuesday looks very similar, so we’ll simply copy and paste Monday’s forecast for now, but we may need to downgrade Tuesday a bit when we get closer.

Mid to late next week

The rest of next week looks pretty decent here in Houston. I would suspect we see increasing sunshine and also increasing temperatures, along with slowly increasing humidity. Look for highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s by the end of the week. We may want to watch for slightly higher shower chances Wednesday, but overall it looks fine right now.

One item of curiosity: The Gulf of Mexico may see some shenanigans next week. While we aren’t looking at anything serious, and we are not looking at anything in Texas right now, we may be looking at “a thing.”

Models have been pretty consistent in some type of surface low pressure developing under an upper level low pressure system in the north-central Gulf and slowly working inland between New Orleans and Panama City, FL. It’s not tropical in nature, as other meteorological processes are driving this, but it could bring some rain and modestly gusty winds to parts of the Gulf Coast well east of our area later next week. There has never been a tropical storm that has formed in the Gulf in April that we know of, and frankly, this system is probably too close to the coast to have enough time to pull that transition and feat off. Still, if you are planning a trip to the eastern Gulf Coast next week, keep tabs on the forecast and maybe prepare for some less than desirable beach weather.

Good morning. The Houston region saw a burst of rainfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with widely varying totals. Some areas saw only a few tenths of an inch of rain, whereas parts of northwestern Montgomery County have recorded as much as 4 inches of rainfall. The Houston area will remain in a wet pattern through Friday before we dry out this weekend. Easter Sunday looks pleasant, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s.

Thursday

The focus for rainfall this morning lies to the northwest of Houston, where a boundary just above the surface has remained more or less stationary. This area, including Austin, Waller, Washington, Brazos, Grimes, and Montgomery counties, will remain the focus for on-and-off shower activity this morning. Much of the Houston metro area may well remain rain-free during daytime hours today.

Later this afternoon and overnight, however, we are likely to see showers and thunderstorms developing closer to the coast, in and south of Houston. Overall accumulations today and tonight for the region are likely between 0.5 and 3 inches of rainfall. I think our Stage 1 flood alert covers things nicely. As always, remain weather aware when heavy rainfall threatens, and check conditions before venturing out.

Aside from precipitation, expect cloudy skies today with high temperatures in the upper 60s. Winds will be out of the northeast at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Winds will pick up tonight, perhaps gusting up to 30 or 35 mph. Low temperatures will drop to around 60 degrees, or maybe a few degrees lower.

Friday

Healthy rain chances continue overnight and into Friday, as a wet airmass remains in place, with the destabilizing presence of a cold front just offshore. This activity should start to wind down on Friday night, or Saturday morning at the latest. All told, most of the region will see an additional 1 to 4 inches of rainfall through Friday night. Please take care in thunderstorms, and do not drive into high water. High temperatures on Friday may only reach the low to mid-60s, with continued mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday

Rain showers should come to an end late Friday night, but we can expect clouds to persist for awhile. Highs on Saturday will be around 70 degrees, with moderate northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph. With dewpoints in the upper 50s, the air will feel reasonably dry. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Sunday

Conditions on Easter Sunday look nice. We should see partly sunny skies during the late morning and afternoon hours, with highs pushing up into the upper 70s. There will be enough dry air for it to feel pretty pleasant outside. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the low 60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks spring-like as well. Our highs look to be around 80 degrees, with nights in the 50s and 60s, and at least a modicum of drier air. A weak front may arrive on Tuesday-ish to provide a bit of slightly cooler weather. It does look like we’ll warm up some before next weekend, perhaps into the mid-80s. We shall see!

Good morning. A cold front is sagging southward toward our region, and this will set the stage for several cooler and rainy days. It certainly will not rain continuously from now through Saturday morning, but there will be periods of moderate and potentially heavy rainfall. Some areas will see accumulations of rainfall, over time, that may produce some street flooding. For this reason we have initiated a Stage 1 flood alert from noon today through Friday night.

Wednesday

Conditions are warm and humid this morning, with lows having dropped only into the mid-70s. The front will reach areas northwest of Houston by around noon, push into the city this afternoon, and reach the coast late this afternoon or early evening. I expect to see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with the front, but the bigger concern will likely come tonight and later this week. Why? Because the front is going to get hung up right along the coast, and as a result should help to generate nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms over time. Temperatures today should reach the low 80s ahead of the front, and drop into the low 60s tonight.

Thursday and Friday

The period from Thursday morning through Friday night is when we’re most concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall. I wish I could be more precise in terms of impacts, but the short-term modeling is not terribly consistent with where the heaviest rainfall will set up. As a result, we’re going to have to continue to predict widespread accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, with higher isolated totals.

I noted above that our primary concern is stationary storms, which this kind of setup—springtime, stalled front, plenty of moisture, and atmospheric disturbances—favors. For most of us, the rain totals should be completely manageable. Soils are reasonably dry, and the rains will be spread out over two days. But some locations will very likely see street flooding, so be weather aware the next couple of days. Highs on both days will be in the upper 60s to about 70 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees.

Saturday

Fortunately, we’re increasingly confident that this mess is going to move out by Saturday morning, and this should lead to a mostly cloudy day, with highs of around 70 degrees. Rain chances will be quite low after the morning, perhaps only 10 percent. Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

The same goes for Easter Sunday, in the sense that we expect the day to be rain-free. We also should see some partially clearing skies. So look for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, therefore, with a splash of sunshine. With dewpoints around 60 degrees, the air will also feel decently dry. So all in all, it should be a rather nice holiday.

Next week

We have no weather concerns for next week. The region should see a slow warming trend such that temperatures reach the mid-80s toward the end of the week, with humidity levels creeping back up.