Month: September 2023

Thanks to a drier airmass this weekend, we’ve seen overnight low temperatures dropping from their extreme highs this summer. Lows this weekend at Bush Intercontinental Airport were 71 and 70 degrees on Saturday and Sunday mornings. This slightly drier air will start to mix out over the next couple of days, leading to a better chance of rain later this week.

Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s to start the week, but should cool off a bit with the better rain chances toward the end of the week. And another weak front appears to be on the horizon by late weekend that may—just maybe—push daytime highs into the upper 80s for some locations. No promises!

Monday

With light northeasterly winds today, we’re going to see continued sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Due to the light winds, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has issued an Ozone Action Day, meaning that atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for producing high levels of ozone pollution today. People who are sensitive to this should take precautions such as limiting time outdoors. Low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer, likely in the mid-70s for much of the area. This is still considerably cooler than we’ve experienced for most of the summer.

Tuesday

Another sunny day, a lot like Monday. However as winds become easterly and southeasterly we’ll see a bit more humidity. Expect mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances remain essentially zero.

Wednesday and Thursday

The atmosphere turns more perturbed by mid-week, and with slightly higher atmospheric moisture levels we should start to see better rain chances by Wednesday afternoon or evening. Daily rain chances will be on the order of 40 to 50 percent, probably. Showers most likely will not last super long, but some areas could receive a decent soaking of a few tenths of an inch of rainfall, or more. Daytime highs will depend on the extent of rain and cloud cover, but for the most part expect temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday

Our rain chances look to peak on Friday, with coverage of perhaps 60 or 70 percent of the area. Look for highs, again, to be in the low- to mid-90s. Accumulations for Saturday look higher for inland areas, perhaps an inch or more, and lesser closer to the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Some rain chances will linger into Saturday, but for the most part skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances should end definitively by Sunday, as another weak front appears likely to push into the area. The extent of this front’s influence remains a bit unclear, but we should at least see some drier and slightly cooler air by Sunday or Monday night.

Next week

Most of next week should see sunny skies, with highs possibly in the upper 80s to start the week, before warming back into the low- to mid-90s.

I’m not ready to declare “Fall Day” yet, as that comes with the season’s first decently strong front, which knocks air temperatures down to 65 degrees or below. And this definitely is not “fall-like” weather. But it is fairly typical for mid-September, and an improvement from a few weeks ago.

Good morning. Today is likely to be the final, exceptionally hot day of 2023. I expect temperatures to reach 100 to 107 degrees across the metro area today underneath sunny skies. We also have a pretty good chance of peaking at 100 degrees on Saturday before temperatures dip just a bit by Sunday. That’s interesting from a historical perspective in terms of 100-degree days. To date, we have recorded 44 such days this calendar year.

Back in 2011, which anyone who lived here probably hasn’t forgotten, the city recorded 46 days with highs of at least 100 degrees. That broke a record previously set during 1980, 32 days. So with today a certainty to hit 100, and Saturday quite possibly, that would allow us to tie the record set in 2011. Will we break it? Certainly we will have some days in the mid- to upper 90s in the week ahead. But I’m not sure we get another 100-degree day. And to be honest, I’m OK with not breaking the record. Aren’t you?

Friday

Today is going to be excessively hot, no way to get around that. We’re going to see much of the area push into the 105-degree range and it’s going to be miserable. The only good thing I can tell you is that this really is our last fling with ridiculously hot weather in 2023. We really are going to see a pattern change to cool things off (a bit) next week, and then we’re into late September and this madness will be over. But no getting around that today is going to be brutally hot and you definitely need to take heat precautions.

One thing we’re watching for is the possibility of late-afternoon and evening storms dropping down into the Houston region from the northeast today. It’s possible as the capping inversion probably will be weak later today. In runs produced last night, some of the high-resolution models got really aggressive in developing these storms, but they have since backed off. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has the northeastern part of the metro area under a “slight” chance for seeing severe weather, likely in the form of thunderstorms and damaging winds, later today. My sense is that any strong storms fizzle before reaching Houston, but there is a chance.

Saturday

Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with perhaps a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will depend on rainfall amounts and timing. For the most part these showers will bring only light accumulations of rain, but a few areas may get higher totals under stronger storms. For the most part, when it’s not raining, skies will be mostly sunny.

Sunday

Look for mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s as the high pressure ridge recedes westward. Rain chances will be on the order of 30 percent, with mostly sunny skies.

Next week

Temperatures will continue to trend downward next week, as a weak front drifts into the region and slightly lowers our humidity levels. Basically, we’ll probably see highs in the low- to mid-90s for much of the week, with perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain each day. Who knows, a few areas may even see a high in the upper 80s on a day or two. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the 70s. It’s not going to feel fall-like like, but it certainly will feel a lot more like late summer, which is how it is supposed to feel in mid-September.

Unfortunately, while most of us will see rainfall, I don’t see the kind of drenching rains we need to break the region’s worsening drought. Still, 0.5 to 1 inch over the next week is much better than nothing, and far more than many of us received in July and August.

Steel thyselves, my friends, for one more go with extreme heat. As high pressure gets stacked up over the region, we’re going to have one more fling with temperatures substantially above 100 degrees over the next two days before we (slowly) start to moderate into somewhat more civilized weather. Next week should start to look more like a typical late summer pattern, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and much improved rain chances. Nighttime lows should also start to feel a bit cooler as well.

Thursday

Highs today will range from about 100 to 105 degrees across much of the region, with only a very slight southerly wind. Skies will be sunny, and a heat advisory is in place for this afternoon and evening. There is perhaps a 10 to 20 percent chance of rain for inland areas later today, but I would have very low expectations for that to occur.

Friday

Our heat will peak on Friday, and this will be a scorcher. Much of the area will likely reach high temperatures of around 105 degrees, with ample sunshine. There are two things to watch for. Along with the heat we’re going to see healthy wildfire chances. And secondly, there is an upper-level disturbance that will be most prominent in North Texas, but could affect our weather as well.

By late Friday evening it is possible that this disturbance drives some sort of line of storms down into the Houston metro area, likely reaching the city just before or after midnight. Not all of our modeling is showing this to happen, but given the potential for instability in the atmosphere I think it’s possible. In any case, it’s something we should have a better handle on in tomorrow morning’s forecast update.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is still going to be hot, don’t get me wrong. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees with mostly sunny skies. But we’re going to see a pretty decent chance of showers, whether it comes early in the morning with the aforementioned disturbance, or later in the day. Then I would expect highs on Sunday to peak in the mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies and another healthy chance (maybe 40 or 50 percent) chance of rainfall.

Next week

The forecast is still uncertain for next week, but I think it’s likely that the combination of a weak front and high pressure moving out west that we’re going to see highs mostly in the low 90s by the middle to end of next week. Nighttime lows should also finally start dropping into the 70s, with some slightly less humid air. Add in some pretty decent daily rain chances, and you’ve got yourself the region’s most moderate week of weather since summer began in Houston, I don’t know, what seems like 15 years ago.

With that said, these next two days are going to be brutally hot, so be sure and take care of yourselves, your family, and your neighbors.

Good morning. High pressure is starting to build back over the Houston region today, and that will lead to four days when temperatures will likely reach 100 degrees, or higher, for most of the region. Friday looks especially hot, with highs near 105 degrees possible for inland areas. But by this weekend high pressure starts to weaken. Accordingly, next week, our temperatures are going down into the mid-90s, at least, and we’ll start to see some better rain chances.

Wednesday

Today will be sunny and hot. Before the high pressure system fully asserts control, we’re going to have a puncher’s chance of rainfall today. I’d say there will be about a 20 percent chance of a brief shower. Otherwise, high temperatures will reach about 100 degrees with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, coming from the southeast later today.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days are likely to bring highs in the low 100s for much of the metro area, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the west to southwest. If I squint, I can see some scenarios in which there are a few isolated showers on Thursday, but it’s not something I’m holding my breath for.

Saturday and Sunday

As mentioned above, Saturday is likely to be the final day, of four, that could see highs of 100 degrees. Conditions will be mostly sunny and hot. However, by then the high pressure system will be easing westward, opening the door to some chances for scattered showers. Sunday should be a bit cooler, with highs in the mid- to upper 90s, and more scattered showers. Call it a 30 percent chance for each day, subject to modification.

Next week

High temperatures next week should be in the range of the low- to mid-90s. We may also see cooler nights, in the 70s. There’s even the chance of a weak front and some slightly drier air. We should also see daily rain chances in the vicinity of 20 to 40 percent. So all in all, quite a bit of moderation from the summer of hell conditions we experienced for most of June, July, and August.

Tropics

As we discussed at length on Tuesday, the Gulf of Mexico remains largely closed off to tropical activity for now, and likely the next two weeks. However there is a potentially very strong hurricane developing the central Atlantic Ocean, Lee, which is likely to eventually threaten Bermuda and possibly interests along the U.S. East Coast. Matt has all of the details on The Eyewall if you want to read more.