A rainy day (but no flooding), and we take an early look at the Thanksgiving forecast

Good morning. Much of the area picked up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain overnight, and we’ll see continued light rain for most of the rest of the day—certainly nothing to worry about in terms of flooding. We’ll see sunny skies by midweek, with generally mild temperatures. The weekend looks pleasant, likely with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s.

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Additional rainfall accumulations today will be on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch for most locations, with the greater totals likely nearer the coast, and lesser totals for inland areas. It will also be a bit breezy as this coastal low pressure system passes nearby, with gusts perhaps reaching 25 or 30 mph at times from the northeast. These winds will peak during the afternoon hours. High temperatures today will likely hang around 60 degrees. We’ll only drop off a few degrees tonight, and we’re likely to see additional, on-and-off, light rain showers.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Tuesday. (Weather Bell)


As the low pressure system moves off to the east, we’ll see a bit of a transition day. Some light showers may linger near the coast, but we’ll also see more, drier air moving in from the north. As a result, skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-60s. Northerly winds will blow at about 10 mph, but may gust at times to 20 mph. Temperatures will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Have you missed the sunshine? It will return by the middle of the week, with partly sunny skies for the rest of the work week. We’ll be on a gradual warming trend, with highs of around 70 degrees on Wednesday, reaching the mid-70s by Friday. Similarly, lows on Wednesday morning in the mid-50s will climb to around 60 degrees by Friday night.

By mid-week lows should reach the 50s area-wide. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring continued, mild conditions. We probably will see more partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows will be around 60 degrees. Saturday looks nigh on perfect for outdoor activities. There is a slight chance of some showers later on Sunday, as a disturbance passes nearby, but for now I’d bet on the majority of the Houston metro area staying dry.

Next week, and an early peek at Thanksgiving

At some point early next week, most likely on Monday or early Tuesday, the region’s next front will push into the area. Some showers may accompany this front, but that is not entirely clear. This front is likely to usher a significantly drier air mass into the Houston region. But how much colder will it be? We can’t be sure. So Tuesday and Wednesday of next week should be a bit cooler, perhaps with highs in the 60s.

And what of Thanksgiving? Unfortunately there is a very broad spread in the model outlook at this point, with a high temperature forecast anywhere from the mid-50s to about 80 degrees. At this point I don’t really feel like guessing because the forecast could go many different ways. Will we get a reinforcing cool front in the middle of next week? Will the onshore flow return, instead, opening up the possibility of showers by Thanksgiving? As soon as there is any clarity, I’ll let you know.

24 thoughts on “A rainy day (but no flooding), and we take an early look at the Thanksgiving forecast”

  1. Eric, you guys must not have been watching the TV weather this weekend. This is a “Weather Alert Day” because it is raining. They informed us of several things I wasn’t aware of, like I need to allow extra time to drive to work today and that my bus might be running late. And that I’ll need a rain jacket or umbrella. Wow, I wasn’t aware of that as I’ve never experienced a rainy day before.

    Of course, I wake up this morning and look out the window and it isn’t even raining here. Where was the monsoon?

    • And what a shame our city administration decided to cancel the Veterans Day parade because of the ‘rain’ and robbing veterans of the opportunity of showing their pride. As if soldiers didn’t have to fight in the rain to safeguard these shores.

      • Or the bone-chilling winter cold and stifling summer heat my dad and uncle experienced in Korea. Oh, yes – the Chinese Army was trying to kill them, too.

    • To be fair the forecast were still calling for 2-5″ of rain for today. And, on a side note, did you see the number of wrecks this morning? My commute was 30 minutes longer then normal.
      They weren’t to far from reality…

      • The only think as deceptive as weather forecasts are the promises made by politicians running for election.

    • Agreed, the TV made it sound like today was going to be a hurricane, but the weather has been the same as it was on Saturday and Sunday, although perhaps the showers are lasting a little longer today. But the rain has been drizzle and light rain, for the most part.

  2. There’s nothing quite some miserable and unseasonably jarring as an 80° Thanksgiving. And, unfortunately, 80° Thanksgivings have been pretty common recently. Sucks to be wearing shorts and sweating on a holiday where we should be bundled up by a fire. Feels like being cheated out of something valuable and irreplaceable.

    • You realize Houston does not have snow on Christmas annually? Feel cheated out of that too? Calm down Daniel, lol..

    • I’ll take an 80° Thanksgiving day over a 50° any day! I can only take so much time “bundled up by a fire” before getting cabin fever…

    • 80 degrees is a pleasant temp, and quite welcome for any day. I don’t sweat at 80, especially not in shorts. Are you from around here? You sound like someone used to the frigid Midwest.

    • The joy and fun of holidays doesn’t come from the weather, and, if you are going to be traveling mild, dry weather during Thanksgiving (and Christmas) is much better than being stuck in a storm.

    • As a native Houstonian living in the Rockies I can tell you shoveling snow on Thanksgiving is no thrill and it’s became way to common. Shorts on Thanksgiving sounds like a luxury.

  3. We all knew that Halloween would be cooler/colder than Thanksgiving. Heck, even possibly Christmas. No problem, I’ll just adjust to a Thanksgiving cookout instead if we do hit 80+.

  4. Front pushed too far offshore for the big rains. High pressure too strong to the north kept the low farther out. Jim cantore mentioned it while ago. Said this is 2nd time forecasts have been blown with the one on west coast too.

  5. I never count on any kind of cold holiday anymore, although I do remember when Houston had seasons. I’m guessing 80F. If I’m surprised, even better.

  6. Here at my house in Sienna, it has pretty much rained lightly non-stop since about 3:00 pm yesterday, with the sum total running at about 1.6″ as I write this. I suspect it will be up to about 1.75″ by midnight as it all looks to be basically past us now, or will be within the next hour. So less than predicted, but grateful to get any at all after the summer we have had. The one thing that has NOT happened is the big winds that were forecast. Down here, the highest winds were 5.6/8.5 and the averages are at 1/3/2.0. I will have to see how ABC13 and KHOU11 try to talk their way out of the 30 to 50 mph wind gusts they were predicting.

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