A rare, late spring front arrives this week to bring some storms, and then rather nice weather

After a summer-like pattern took hold of our region for nearly all of the Month of May, change came early on Sunday morning with the arrival of a front and a good soaking. To give you an idea of how abnormal our weather was in May, consider this statistic from the National Weather Service about Galveston’s heat. Sunday’s low temperature in Galveston was 72 degrees, by far the lowest of the month. Before Sunday, the monthly average low was 78.6 degrees, which smashed the previous highest average for the May 1 to 21 period. Previously, 2003 had the warmest average low temperature, 75.4 degrees during the first three weeks of May. Galveston’s weather records date to 1875, so that’s nearly 150 years of data. This type of warmer weather is consistent with what we would expect to see due to climate change.

Fortunately, the rest of the month should be much more temperate.


In the wake of Sunday’s front, temperatures today should generally reach the upper 80s beneath mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Rain chances are less than 10 percent, and winds will be moderate, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the low-70s for most locations. In other words, conditions will be pretty darn nice for late May.

HRRR model forecast for radar reflectivity at 5 am Tuesday. Subject to major changes! (Weather Bell)


There is the potential for heavy rain on Tuesday as an upper-level system moves through, but I’m not certain all of the ingredients are going to come together. We’ll be watching for a line of storms to develop in central Texas late on Monday night, and then move through our area from southwest to northeast. The timing is a bit uncertain, so these storms could reach us by around sunrise or a bit later. If the storms come later, they probably will be stronger, as they would benefit from daytime heating. Otherwise, skies should be mostly cloudy on Tuesday, with highs in the mid-80s. Rain chances will drop off during the evening and overnight hours.


Yet another “cold” front is on track to push through the region on Wednesday. In terms of timing, we’re probably looking at a passage during the afternoon hours through Houston, and again there will be the potential for some heavy rainfall as this system moves through, this time from north to south. Some of these storms could be severe, so most of the Houston area faces a “slight” chance of severe weather, according to NOAA.

Severe weather outlook for Wednesday. (NOAA)

Total rainfall amounts through Wednesday should vary widely, with accumulations generally of 1 to 3 inches, with the potential for higher localized amounts. Honest-to-goodness drier air should work its way in behind the front, ending showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday evening. Daytime highs should be in the 80s, with lows dropping into the 60s overnight.

Thursday and Friday

These should be splendid, late-spring days with highs in the mid- to upper-80s, sunny skies, and slightly drier air. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid-60s for much of the region, while Friday evening will be a touch warmer. My pick of the week will be Thursday evening, when I expect very pleasant conditions out of doors. Enjoy this spring fling!

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning. (Weather Bell)

Memorial Day Weekend

The holiday weekend will see warmer weather with mostly sunny skies. Highs through Monday should be around 90 degrees, or in the low 90s at the warmest. Dewpoints will be rising, but not to oppressive levels. Rain chances look to be near zero until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

32 thoughts on “A rare, late spring front arrives this week to bring some storms, and then rather nice weather”

  1. You referred to “Climate Change” is climate change “man-made” or is it an “Act of God”, most everyone is looking for someone or something to blame and complain about the heat and humidity in Houston.

    • Humans are clearly causing the planet to warm. How much, and what the implications will be (from not good to very very bad) remain to be seen.

      • Eric,
        I loveyour forecasts.. recommend you to all my friends..
        But cmon.. are humans so conceited that we think that 125 plus years of the industrial revolution is causing this earth that has survived BILLIONS of years of “climate change” to actually warm??
        The earth will be here for a long long time after humans are gone. The earth is not going anywhere. We are.

        • No one (except crazy people arguing in bad faith) is saying that climate change is going to destroy the earth, or do any kind of lasting damage on a geological timescale. Your last paragraph about how the earth isn’t going anywhere even if we are is absolutely correct.

          But you’re either blind or willfully ignorant if you don’t believe that anthropogenic climate change is real. The evidence is both conclusive and overwhelming.

          Why don’t you think anthropogenic climate change is real? Are you going by your misinterpretation of God’s promise in Genesis to never again destroy the earth with floods? Because, again, climate change is in no danger of “destroying the earth.” What it will do is vastly disrupt a whole lot of human civilization, and cause a lot of economic upheaval and lost lives. And that drives perfectly well with what God says in Genesis, frankly.

          Or are you cleaning to that same set of disproven, faulty studies the climate change deniers always fall back on when pressed for evidence? The ones that either try to make the case that more atmospheric CO2 is a good thing, or that the warming period we’re in right now is cyclical and natural? Because if so, your data is bad, your conclusions are wrong, and you should go back to studying the evidence from actual reliable sources.

          Or, perhaps, you’re doing the thing that a lot of climate deniers do deciding that your feelings and personal biases are more important than facts?

          • Seems like the only “economic upheaval” is that which is occurring to “fight” climate change. If we accept that climate changes and allow the marketplace to provide solutions, we’ll all be better off than the wanton and misguided spending by politicians.

      • Back when I was a kid, 60 or so years ago, when it got really hot we called it SUMMER. Now we call it climate change. Whatever.

        • It’s not SUMMER until June 21, over a month away. It’s been hot all May, in SPRING. Sheesh

    • Trillions of pounds of hydrocarbons that were once locked away in rock formations are now freely floating around in our atmosphere in the form of CO2 and methane (and other trace gases). There is no denying that this is driving the climate change we are seeing.

  2. When you link a regional temperature anomaly–such as the winter cold snap in February 2021 or the May 2022 heat wave–to the global phenomenon of climate change, you are doing climatology a disservice.

    • When you fail to connect large swings in regional phenomena norms to the global phenomenon of climate change, you show your bias and ignorance.

    • This is a regional weather blog. It’s going to focus on the regional effects of the global phenomenon.

  3. I’ve never been so happy to see cloudy skies – it lessens the sunlight heating the concrete/cement/asphalt.

  4. Love the weather messages but “Climate Change” has been occurring for eons. We are on a very large space ship, traveling through the universe. Things will always be changing. Look at the abnormally hot weather of the 14th century and the more recent little ice age on the 1800s.

    I well remember the abnormally high temps in Texas in the early 1950s, along with the unbelievable dust storms of that time.

    Today’s climate alarmists would freak out if we have another round of 1950s Texas weather.

    • It’s impressive that someone could pack so much wrongness and biased thinking into a single post. Typical boomer thinking: “My lived experiences of 70 years ago and my ignorant personal opinions are more important than facts and data.”

      • “Typical boomer thinking”? Is it necessary to be so rude and dismissive? If the evidence is so overwhelming, why don’t you present some of it instead of insulting everyone who doesn’t agree with you?

        • I’ll stop being rude and dismissive when you and others stop being ignorant and dismissive. How dumb are you, to come on a weather blog and debate the meteorologist about climate change?

          If you’re looking for evidence and you’re too lazy to do your own research properly — typical boomer — then you could start by reading the IPCC 6th assessment report, which was just released.

          If that’s too complicated for you, then here’s the summary: human-driven climate change is causing greater and greater swings in weather extremes, there’s extensive evidence, and things will continue to accelerate, especially for us on the Gulf Coast.

          But I guess some of you won’t believe it unless you hear it from the My Pillow Guy or Jack Posobiec. Why do you even bother with sites like SCW if you only believe half of what Eric and Matt say? How do you decide what expert advice to take, and what expert advice to disregard? Is it really that you just throw away everything you disagree with?

          Not surprising to see you retreat to safe spaces online when confronted with facts. Conservatives are the original snowflakes.

          • Excuse me? I consider myself conservative and I believe anthropogenic warming is a real issue. Don’t bring “conservative” into it.

          • Wow. I didn’t say anything about where I stand on the issue, what my age is, what my qualifications are, whether or not I’ve read the IPCC reports or any other data, or what my political leanings are. You assumed all of it. You also assumed that I am the one who is debating Eric about climate change, which I am not, and called me dumb for good measure. It appears that you’d rather insult complete strangers than have a respectful debate with them. Is that how you make yourself feel smart?

      • I’m 38 and can tell you it’s not just the boomers. I’ve read a lot on this topic and have come across some really shady things used to support the official viewpoint while censoring dissenting views. I used to believe every bit of it like many of you on here, and likewise thought of deniers as ignorant, selfish, unenlightened. But after so many years of putting my trust into “science experts” – who seem just as close-minded as anyone and often just repeat each other to keep their reputations, grant money, or tenure – I’m now to the point where i believe that it’s happening, but is blown WAY out of proportion and is being used primarily as a scare tactic for greener technology and more regulations. Yes, get off fossil fuels, but there are many more sensible approaches besides panic and fear mongering.

        • Well said, Aiden. You have come to the same conclusion as noted environmentalists Bjorn Lomborg, Michael Shellenberger, and many others.

    • It’s the pace of change caused by anthropogenic climate change that’s concerning. The “always changing” you speak of happened on timeframes that took millennia to shift. It’s one thing to go from an ice age to temperate climate in a span of tens of thousands of years, and another to rapidly warm within a few centuries before life on our land and oceans can adapt.

  5. Find it interesting so many people come here counting on your expertise but refuse to consider that you might know what you’re talking about when it comes to climate change.

  6. Worth noting the average temperature through April was quite a bit lower than it has been the past five years. May has been brutal but the average temperature through the year is pretty average generally. After this “cold” front we will likely be back to coolest year in the past 4-5 years (I haven’t run the data further back).

  7. Thank you for this: “This type of warmer weather is consistent with what we would expect to see due to climate change.” I appreciate and applaud your courage. People who don’t recognize and accept scientific facts that humans are not being Good Stewards of the Earth God gave us to oversee, are continually contributing to Global Warming. They don’t realize their children will suffer the consequences of their actions. The Sins of the Father … fir generations to come.

  8. Thank you for simply stating the facts, Eric. Unfortunately, when it comes to facts and truth, we live in a time when vast numbers of people – on too many things – refuse to accept them. Their alternate reality will be the downfall of us all, and that is a tragedy beyond words.

  9. Climate change caused by humans is already here. We’re living in it, whether you believe it or not. God can’t save us from it. We deserve to perish for all the suffering and hell we’ve brought onto the planet, to the animals, and on each other.

    • Polluting the world is not man’s only or greatest sin. Maybe we do deserve that, but morality is more than justice.

  10. This geoscientist agrees with everything you’ve said Eric! Some people are so quick to shut down parts of their brains to any science that makes them uncomfortable, especially if it doesn’t conform to whatever their favorite politician or personality tells them. Science will often inevitably end up in politics, which places it in the cross hairs of the partisans and those who have a major financial stake in rejecting it.

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