Good morning. Most of Houston is experiencing temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s this morning, with modestly lower dewpoints. This is not exactly fall-like weather, but it’s a reminder that we’re much closer to fall than you might realize. Moreover, there’s another weak front on tap in a day or so to keep our “September-pleasant” weather in place for the rest of the week.
Wednesday
Today will be hot, as drier air allows the air to warm quickly into the low- to- mid 90s under sunny skies. Light northerly winds will shift to come from the east later today, and eventually the southeast. This will herald the return of somewhat muggier conditions later tonight as the first weak front washes out. As a result low temperatures Wednesday night may be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night.
Thursday and Friday
Another weak front will be on the move Thursday, however, and it should reach the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. This one should have even a little bit more drier air with it. So while highs on Thursday will warm into the mid-90s beneath sunny skies, lows Thursday night should drop to around 70 in the city, with cooler temperatures in outlying areas. It will be nice. Expect similar conditions for Friday, which should see the driest air of the week.
Saturday
The drier air should hold into Saturday before our air mass becomes modified by the onshore flow. Still, I’m expecting mostly sunny skies for the first half of the weekend, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Saturday night should be warmer and muggier.
Sunday and beyond
The party ends on Sunday as notably higher dewpoints in the mid- to upper-70s return to the region. Along with this we’ll see an abrupt shift in cloud cover and increasing rain chances. We still don’t have a great handle on rainfall amounts, but daily chances should be about 50 percent beginning on Sunday, continuing through much of next week. Highs will be around 90 degrees each day, with lows in the mid-70s.
Tropics
In the tropics we’re still tracking Hurricane Larry, which will avoid Bermuda and should gradually weaken as it lifts to the north. Closer to home, in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 91L is moving toward the Florida Panhandle, where it has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm before landfall. Regardless, it will make for a wet few days in Florida. Finally, we’re continuing to see the potential for a weak tropical system to develop in the Bay of Campeche late this weekend. However there is no real signal in the forecast models that this system will either develop further or move that much northward. Still, its moisture could play a role in our rainfall next week.
I know it’s very early but do you see anything in the tropics that could potentially affect Florida the week of Sept. 21? I have to travel to Tampa for work that week. Thank you!
Yesterday was a very beautiful and pleasant late summer day, and I urge everyone to get outside if you can.
“Dry Air Party” is almost the best three words that can be heard in these parts. It is up there with “Take my cash” or “Have more cake”.
I loved getting outside yesterday and even the pre-dawn walk today was excellent.
Looking at the models, it seems that wind shear could be very high the next two weeks in the Gulf. Good news for us.
In the past few weeks, it seems like the BOC is giving us more disturbed weather to watch than Africa..
Can we talk about the hurricane developement consistently overperforming the models? (Compliments to the models on directional forecasts,but I suspect the models are based on historic data and climate change is moving us away from historic averages?