A weekend of wicked heat, but less hot weather on Houston’s horizon

The meteorological phenomenon we call “August” has mostly lived up to its normally unpleasant expectations so far in the Houston area. After hitting 101° on Wednesday, we topped off at 99° yesterday. Overnights have been especially oppressive, with Galveston tying an all-time record warm low temperature on Wednesday and Hobby Airport blowing through its record for most 80 degree mornings in a year already. We will have a post with a lot more on this coming soon. In the meantime, we expect no relief this weekend, but there are signs we should begin to cool off a bit next week. Let’s discuss.

Today through Monday heat

A heat advisory continues for the entire region both today and tomorrow, and we would not be shocked to see it extended into Sunday and/or Monday as well. Expect mostly sunshine with highs near 100, lows in the 70s to near 80°, and heat index values of 105° to 110° or even briefly hotter at times.

Heat index values at 4 PM today will be quite high, topping off near 110° in many areas. (Weather Bell)

Take it slow and easy in the heat this weekend.

Rain chances and a front next week?

As far as rain chances go, we should not see anything other than an isolated pop-up shower or storm today and tomorrow. If the chance of a shower is about 10 percent Friday and Saturday, maybe it inches up to 15 or 20 percent Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday are complicated by a cold front in the area. Don’t expect anything refreshing next week, but we should see a shift to “less hot” weather and a better chance of scattered showers and storms early. Monday would still be hot with scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. The trade off with a cold front possibly pushing through is that rain chances would drop off again behind the front for later Tuesday and Wednesday. Still, we’ve got a few things to work out regarding the timing of the front and just how high rain chances look. We’ll update you Monday.

Behind any sort of front, we would see high temperatures “only” in the mid-90s and less oppressive heat index values. Lows would be more in the 70s for most.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Josephine formed yesterday in the open Atlantic, the earliest 10th or “J” storm on record by almost 10 days.

Tropical Storm Josephine looks to be weak and a “fish” storm. (NOAA)

Josephine will likely begin to get steered to the north as it passes the islands and is no threat to the U.S.

The only other disturbance outlined by the National Hurricane Center (Invest 96L) is a disturbance off the North Carolina coast that will slide out to sea over the next few days. We expect another wave or two to emerge next week as candidates for development, but it’s far too early to speculate on any other details. We just know it’s likely going to get and stay active.

For those of you scoring at home, the earliest eleventh, or “K” storm was Katrina on August 24, 2005. The earliest “L” storm was 1995’s Luis on August 29th, part of a barrage of storms in the Caribbean islands that year.

10 thoughts on “A weekend of wicked heat, but less hot weather on Houston’s horizon

  1. Tom Swinburn

    Matt. I’m gonna suggest a change in terminology to better reflect the times and place in which we live. Rather than “pop up shower” perhaps “drive by shower” would be more easily understood by some (not all) of your subscribers. A cool down can not happen too soon for most of us.

  2. Jingle Jangle

    On one hand, the forecast is nice and boring on a “Groundhog Day” cycle. On the other hand, it is hot and humid for the auto-repeat. But, for anyone who’s lived here, this is par for the course.

    My AC decided that this was a fine time to spring a small leak, which has been happening for a few weeks now. Yesterday, the AC guy confirmed that this personal “global warming” wasn’t in my head. With a temporary fix, I’m hoping for an early cool-off so I can then have it permanently fixed. I don’t relish a few hours of no AC while they fix it.

    But, like the old slogan goes; “When you get to the end of your rope, make a knot and hang on.”

  3. Arianda

    Arizona (from where I moved) has wicked heat………..this is just hot. But I am actually finding the evenings pleasant if I’m not walking on the pavement. :>)

    1. Tom Swinburn

      I’ve spent time in DRY Arizona. I’ll take their slightly higher temperature with low humidity over the swamp we, (and NOLA and many others) live in. You have to stay out of direct sun in Arizona, but that’s true here or anyplace in the contiguous states. (well, mebbe not Butte Montana)

      1. Arianda

        Dude, were you ever there during Monsoon??? Same humidity as here, but 10-20 degrees hotter! There’s no way i would walk to work in AZ in the middle of summer, but I’ve done it here.

  4. Erick

    Do the models suggest that this front is a one off deal or is this the start of the fronts every week? Because if its the latter then its the end of hurricane season.

    1. Matt Lanza

      It would be awfully early for fronts “every week,” so I wouldn’t be getting my hopes up.

  5. Jeff

    Curious what kind of stock you guys put in changes in nature. My grandmother, who was a gardener extraordinaire, watched for signs of fall and spring, in particular. For her, things like falling pecans, hummingbirds and certain blooming flowers meant things were beginning to change. Not that we suddenly started having nights in the 50s or anything, but those small signs seemed to signal to her of changes on the horizon.

    I will say that I’ve already seen falling pecans all over my neighborhood – as well as active squirrels starting to harvest – and hummingbirds already, which is about a week or two early. My lemon tree is blooming as well, something that doesn’t usually happen until the end of August.

    Anyway, it’s probably just wishful thinking on my part. 😀

    1. Milt

      Jeff…what area do you live in…my luck with hummingbirds in Clear Lake is really hit and miss, mostly miss…this post about your grandmother is neat!

    2. Matt Lanza

      Interesting! I always enjoy hearing about this stuff. My experience with it is zero in terms of using it skillfully for any prediction ha. BUT I am fairly confident there are certain behaviors in nature that foretell certain things. Which ones and how predictive? I don’t know. It’s tough to objectively study. Whatever the case, I am not optimistic about cool weather this autumn based on everything I’ve seen so far, but long-range forecast is imperfect for a reason!

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