Eric Berger

Summary: Temperatures have trended a bit cooler than expected today, with the freezing line extending all the way down to near the coast. This has caused more problems on area roadways. Elevated highways and bridges, especially, should be treated with caution this evening, and overnight. Tomorrow morning will also feature very cold wind chills, so staying home is advisable, if possible.

Monday night roads

We missed the temperature forecast today by a couple of degrees, but those degrees mattered and led to freezing conditions for most of Houston. With just a couple of hours of daylight left, temperatures are not going up today. Accordingly the freeze line has moved far enough down through the metro are that the light precipitation we’ve been seeing today has caused issues on roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses. This is understandably leading to mobility problems around Houston.

In particular, an accident on icy roads at Interstate 10 and FM 359 in Brookshire, to the west of Katy, shut down the freeway this morning. With the earlier onset of freezing temperatures in the metro area it is clear that drivers need to take care if they’re going to be out and about today and this evening, especially for areas along and inland of US 59/Interstate 69. Travel northwest of Houston, toward College Station; and north toward Dallas is inadvisable (see icy conditions map).

This light precipitation will clear out of the area later this afternoon and evening, but with a hard freeze setting in—and already there over inland areas where there are already some ice accumulations—it will take some time for the ice to sublimate. How long? That will depend on how much ice there is presently on road surfaces, the effectiveness of de-icing by transportation officials, and sunshine on Tuesday morning. The bottom line is that roads will be potentially hazardous for the rest of today, likely overnight, and possibly into Tuesday morning.

Monday night temperatures

We should see cloud cover for most of tonight, which will help keep temperatures from bottoming out too hard. Winds will be another factor. Paradoxically, winds elevate air temperatures through mixing; but make apparent temperatures feel colder. Accordingly, lows tonight will drop roughly into the mid-20s in the urban core of Houston, with colder conditions expected for outlying areas.

When you tack on gusty winds, up to 20 or 25 mph through the night and into Tuesday morning, it’s going to easily feel like the teens out there. That is not cold to be easily dismissed, and it’s understandable that some school districts have already canceled schools due to the combination of potentially icy roads and very cold wind chills.

Power conservation

ERCOT has issued another call for electricity conservation on Tuesday morning, during the hours of 6 am to 9 am, due to cold temperatures statewide and surging power demand. The current forecast for electricity shows demand forecast to be higher than supplies during this time frame, so it is possible that we see some rolling blackouts for a couple of hours. It’s something we’ll all be monitoring early tomorrow morning, I am sure.

Tuesday and Tuesday night

At some point on Tuesday morning the skies will clear, and we’re going to see the sunshine. This should help sublimate any remaining ice on the roads in the Houston metro area, even though air temperatures are likely to remain below freezing during the morning hours. Parts of the city near downtown and closer to the coast will briefly climb above freezing on Tuesday. But we’ll cool down quickly as winds die down, and with clear skies overnight. Expect low temperatures to be a couple of degrees colder than Monday night.

By Wednesday morning we’ll be warming nicely, with sunny skies, to daytime highs of about 50 degrees.

A message from Reliant

We’re grateful for Eric and Matt’s dedication to keeping us informed during this wintery weather. When it comes to energy usage during extreme weather, Reliant also wants to help Texans be prepared. With temperatures dipping, Texans may crank up their heaters to stay warm and because many have electric heaters, freezing temperatures could result in increased energy usage and costs. Heating the home can use up to five times more electricity in one hour than the AC does in the summer.

Through a few simple actions, Reliant is arming Space City Weather readers (regardless of their electricity provider) with tips to help save energy while staying warm:

• Check your thermostat. If you have electric heat in your home, keeping your thermostat around 68 degrees can help you save energy. For every degree above that, you can typically expect a 3-5% increase in heating costs.
• Let the sun in. When the sun is shining, open blinds and shades during the day to naturally warm your home. Close them at night to help block out the chill.
• Close heat escape routes. Keep the chimney damper closed when not in use and be mindful of how often you’re opening entry doors and using bathroom or utility room ventilation fans, as heat can escape through these outlets. 
• Set your ceiling fan to rotateclockwise. This helps force warm air down from the ceiling into the room to create a more comfortable environment. 

For more tips on staying warm while managing your energy usage, visit Reliant.com/WinterTips.

Good morning. Although the coldest weather for Houston will actually come over the next two nights, much of the rest of Texas is experiencing the lowest temperatures of this Arctic outbreak right now. Because of this, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT is asking Texans to conserve power from 6 am to 10 am CT on Monday. Expect another call for conservation on Tuesday morning.

The agency has not said whether it will institute rolling blackouts if demand exceeds power reserves, but that certainly seems possible. You can track power grid status in real time, here. Please note that, at this time, there is no reason to believe that we will see extended blackouts like we experienced during the deep freeze in February 2021.

Now, let’s jump into the forecast.

Monday

We’re starting the new week in a chilly posture, with areas inland of Interstate 10 generally experiencing a freeze. For far inland areas, such as Brenham and College Station, temperatures are already well into hard freeze territory. In Houston’s urban core temperatures are holding at or just above freezing. Arctic air will continue surging into the region today, and temperatures are likely to hover at about freezing levels, or just above or below, for much of the day.

The big question, of course, is precipitation and the extent to which we see freezing rain. We expect to see a mix of very light precipitation and drizzle today in the Houston metro area, with accumulations on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. With temperatures hovering near freezing levels, some of this is bound to fall as freezing rain, leading to concerns about icing on bridges and overpasses. Overall, we don’t anticipate a major ice storm or anything like that in our region, but icy conditions are something to be cognizant of today if you’re out and about. You can check local roadway conditions at Houston Transtar, where icy conditions will be reported. Statewide conditions can be found at Drive Texas. As expected there are a flurry of ice issues well north of the Houston area, particularly around the Dallas area and East Texas. Travel to those locations is not recommended today.

Tonight will be quite cold, especially with a northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph (higher at the coast) piling on wind chill. Air temperatures will drop into the mid-20s in Houston, with colder conditions further inland (a hard freeze) and slightly warmer conditions near the coast. Even Galveston could experience a light freeze. Tuesday morning will feel very cold outside:

As for roads, I think the combination of dry air and windy conditions will remove any moisture and ice. So my best guess is that while conditions will be very cold tonight and into Tuesday, roads should be dry. That is dependent on how much precipitation we get today, of course. We’ll update these icy roads predictions later this afternoon.

Tuesday

After the cold start to the day, highs may reach the low- to mid-30s in Houston underneath sunny skies, but those persistent winds will keep a chill in the air. Areas well inland are likely to remain below freezing throughout the day. As winds die down on Tuesday night, we’ll see ideal conditions for cooling. Expect lows to bottom out from 20 to 25 degrees in the urban core of Houston, with colder temperatures inland.

Wednesday

After a very cold start, highs should warm to about 50 degrees on Wednesday with sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night should remain comfortably in the 40s.

Thursday

A warmer day, with highs in the upper 60s and partly sunny skies. Another fairly robust front arrives on Thursday night-ish, returning colder conditions to the area.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We are going to experience highs in the upper 40s or lower 50s through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies. Lows may reach freezing on Saturday morning in Houston, but it should be a light freeze.

Good afternoon. Just a short-ish update this afternoon because, you know, meteorologists want to watch the Texans playoff game as well. Not a whole lot has changed from the forecast we published this morning. So for this post we’re going to summarize the forecast and impacts, and attempt to answer some questions readers have. Be forewarned: We don’t have absolute answers.

Forecast

An Arctic front will push into Houston overnight, likely moving through the downtown area before sunrise, and reaching the coast by sunrise or a little bit afterward. This will not be a ‘blue norther’ front in that while the winds will shift to come from the north, they are not likely to be howling. Temperatures will remain above freezing on Sunday, and should remain at or above freezing for the majority of the metro area Sunday night with the usual exceptions, places like Montgomery and Conroe.

Monday is going to be a cold day. Most of the region will be in the 30s, with mostly cloudy skies. A passing disturbance will bring light, scattered rain showers into the area beginning late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Most of our model guidance still indicates this precipitation will fall as rain in Houston, with a transition to freezing rain northwest of the metro area, perhaps roughly along Highway 105. Bottom line: It’s going to be miserable outside in Houston on Monday, but you should be able to get out and about. We’re continuing to watch the freezing line closely, of course.

A secondary push of cold, Arctic air will arrive on Monday and that will nudge nighttime temperatures lower on Monday night. But there’s still a pretty broad range of uncertainty on how far the mercury drops on Monday night, depending on cloud cover and other factors. Our advice: prepare for a hard freeze in Houston, but don’t be surprised if temperatures are a little warmer. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning continues to look like the coldest night of the forecast period, when much of the metro area will drop into the upper teens to mid-20s. I don’t feel confident putting a finer point on those temperatures yet. We emerge from the icebox on Wednesday.

Now, let’s try to tackle some questions.

Is the power going to go out?

We’re weather forecasters, not power prognosticators, and so we have limited insight. Statewide temperatures do look 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the exceptional cold that led to widespread power outages in February 2021, and the state has invested in “winterizing” the grid in the three years since that disaster. All of that makes us feel pretty good about the state avoiding prolonged outages.

So far state officials have not called for conservation next week. But it seems like that may be possible, especially on Monday and Tuesday mornings, when the demand forecast from ERCOT is near to the expected supply. In any case, we’ll all see what happens together.

Are there going to be Airport delays?

If we get freezing rain at Bush Intercontinental Airport (or Hobby, for that matter) then yes, there could be some significant flight delays on Monday. But that does not seem likely at this time. For the most part this is going to be the story of cold weather rather than a winter storm. The optimist in me thinks that while there may be some airport delays on Monday and Tuesday, they probably will be due to the destination airports rather than conditions at Houston terminals. The pessimist in me is saying, “Uhh, dude, you’re out of your depth here.” Which is true.

Is school going to be canceled?

Monday is a holiday, to mark Martin Luther King Jr. Day. If our forecast is wrong, and we get more rain than expected on Monday, and conditions are a little colder, than we could see some icy bridges and overpasses on Monday night into Tuesday morning in Houston. That would be a reason to cancel schools in the Houston metro area on Tuesday. But right now we don’t anticipate that happening.

We should have even more confidence in the forecast by tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are going to be blustery and cold, with wind chills in the 20s or teens. Is concern about exposure getting to and from school a reason to cancel it? That’s not my call. But at present our expectation is that roads will remain passable during this winter event.

Should I drive to Dallas or Austin on Monday?

These are going to be difficult calls. Right now there’s a chance of light, freezing rain on Interstate 10 and Highway 290 on Sunday night and Monday. Will there be enough to stick on highways? Maybe a few bridges and overpasses. But I don’t feel great about making that call on driving to Austin right now.

As for Dallas, or places like Shreveport, I’m a little more confident that we’re going to see some decent freezing rain or sleet accumulations that could make travel hazardous. So if you’re heading north of The Woodlands on I-45, or north of Cleveland on Highway 59 on Sunday afternoon or Monday, I’d definitely check road conditions before leaving.

Is it going to snow?

Yes. But not in Houston. For any appreciable totals, you’re probably going to have to travel to Oklahoma or Arkansas on Sunday or Monday. Which, as noted above, is not advisable.

Good morning. The Arctic front is approaching Texas as I write this, and will sweep through the state today and tonight. It will arrive in Houston on Sunday morning, but then may stall near the coast. We’re monitoring a couple of threats from this outbreak of much colder air, including the potential for freezing rain on Sunday night and Monday, and very cold temperatures on Monday and Tuesday nights. Read on below for the latest.

Saturday

After a cold start, today is going to be sunny and lovely. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-60s with plenty of sunshine and light winds. If you have final winterization activities to undertake, today is the day.

Sunday

The front should push into the Houston metro area on Sunday morning, reaching The Woodlands and Katy a couple of hours after midnight, and pushing down to the coast by around sunrise or shortly thereafter. The front should more or less stall along the coast, and this may lead to a fairly widespread divergence in high temperatures on Sunday.

Houston Marathon conditions

I want to say a few words about the Houston Marathon, and what my fellow runners can expect. At this point conditions don’t look extremely cold for the run, but they do look decidedly chilly. With the front likely arriving just before we call cram into corrals, you can expect race time temperatures of about 40 degrees, give or take. Winds will be out of the north at 10 mph or so, with some higher gusts, so with the wind chill it will likely feel like the mid-30s or so. I expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for most of the morning and early afternoon. The good news is that I don’t anticipate any precipitation with the front, or afterward, so we should stay dry. Please dress accordingly.

Highs on Sunday afternoon will vary depending on your location. Areas near the coast may warm up to about 50 degrees, but locations to the north and west of Houston may stay stubbornly in the upper 30s. In any case, there should be no difficulty getting around.

Sunday night and Monday

It looks like most of Houston will remain just above freezing on Sunday night and into Monday. It will be quite cold, in the upper 30s, probably. That’s good, because there is a chance of some light precipitation late on Sunday night and Monday as a modest disturbance crosses the area. In terms of accumulations, it’s not going to amount to much. But the concern is freezing rain, and potential icing on bridges and overpasses. All of our available modeling continues to suggest that the threat of this in Houston is low, as temperatures should remain just above freezing on Monday.

The bigger threat comes to the north of Houston, roughly along Highway 105, and to the west of Sealy. Needless to say we’ll be keeping close tabs on the potential for any freezing rain near or in the Houston metro area as plenty of uncertainty remains. Finally, if you’re traveling to north Texas on Monday, the potential for freezing rain and sleet is much higher as you head that way. Precautions are most definitely warranted for any travel north on Interstate 45 beyond Conroe.

Monday night and Tuesday

Rain chances end later on Monday, and we’re going to see stronger northerly winds. This is when a second surge of colder air will move in. This reinforcing front will drive lows into the 20s for the Houston metro area on Tuesday morning, but we still have some questions about how cold it is going to get. There is a scenario in which mostly cloudy skies help keep most of the metro area at 25 degrees or higher on Tuesday morning. But if skies clear faster we could see lows bottom out at about 20 degrees, with high teens for Katy and The Woodlands. All of this looks pretty cold, but manageable.

Most locations along and south of Interstate 10 should briefly climb above freezing on Tuesday, but areas further inland may struggle to reach freezing temperatures. In any case, it will be sunny and cold. But with dry conditions it should be fine to be out and about.

Tuesday night and Wednesday

With clear skies and lighter winds, Tuesday night should bring ideal conditions for cooling into Houston. I expect the urban core of Houston to drop to between 20 and 25 degrees, which will be a hard freeze. Outlying areas, including The Woodlands and Katy, will have a risk of dropping into the upper teens.

By Wednesday afternoon, with lots of sunshine, we should see highs comfortably in the 40s. This will bring an end to the risk of a hard freeze.

We’ll have an update this afternoon to refresh any changes in this forecast. Have a great Saturday, everyone.