Eric Berger

Good morning. Our region has enjoyed a few days with modestly drier air, but unfortunately that party is coming to an end today. We’re headed back into the mid-90s for the rest of the week, with ample sunshine and humidity. This pattern will change late in the weekend as as weak front approaches the area and likely stalls out, increasing rain chances and bringing some slightly cooler temperatures to start next week.

Wednesday

Our overall air mass remains slightly drier than normal this morning, but that will change as the onshore flow really kicks into gear today. This will bump up dewpoints into the 70s, and my friends let me tell you, that is Houston humid. Despite the increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere, our skies should remain mostly sunny today as highs top out in the mid-90s for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will come from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Rain chances are essentially zero.

Thursday and Friday

We’re going to remain warm and humid, with highs generally in the mid-90s. A few far-inland locations may even ‘luck’ into the upper 90s. But there is something of a limit on how hot our temperatures can get this year, due to day length and solar angle. At the height of summer, the Sun reached an altitude of 84 degrees above Houston (the zenith, recall, is 90 degrees). At this time of year the solar angle is 60 degrees. It’s still going to be hot, though. We’ll also see some isolated showers, with perhaps a 20 percent chance of rain each day. Lows are going to be fairly sultry, only briefly dropping into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same, with highs in the mid-90s, mostly. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent, with sunny skies. Nights will be warm. The aforementioned front is going to be dragging down toward the region later on Sunday, but right now I don’t think it will have too much of an effect on the weekend forecast.

Next week

The arrival of the front should increase cloud cover and rain chances to start next week. There are still a lot of details I’m not particularly confident in, such as the strength of the front, where it will stall out, and precisely how long it is going to hang around. But the bottom line is that we should see some slightly cooler days, with highs in the low 90s, and fairly healthy rain chances through the first half of next week. If I’m ballparking things, I’d set expectations at 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, but that’s kind of a hand-waving guess at this point.

Good morning. Much of the Houston region has fallen into the 60s this morning, and it feels quite pleasant outside. Unfortunately this early preview of fall won’t last, and we’re going to be headed back to warmer days and more humid nights for awhile.

That’s not to say our weather will be exceptionally hot. It won’t. But increasingly, I don’t think our first reasonably strong fall front is coming this month. That’s happened plenty of times before—the average date of Houston’s first significant front is around the last week of September. But it’s still disappointing that Fall Day remains a ways away.

Tuesday

Today’s weather isn’t bad though, by any stretch. After our pleasing start, highs today will climb to around 90 degrees with sunny skies. Winds will shift to become southeasterly, and this will start to bring a more pronounced and humid flow into the region, although this afternoon should still feel somewhat drier than normal. We should still be able to squeeze out one more night in the low- to mid-70s before we warm back up completely.

Wednesday

As high pressure begins to strengthen some, we’ll see more humidity and high temperatures will nudge up into the low-90s. Like on Tuesday, rain chances will be near zero. Overnight lows are likely to only drop into the mid- to upper-70s, unfortunately.

Thursday and Friday

We will see mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-90s to end the work week. With the moister atmosphere Houston should start to see a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps on the order of 20 percent. Any storms that do develop should pass rather quickly. Lows will remain muggy, in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued warm and muggy weather, with Sunday likely the warmest day as highs reach the mid-90s. It looks like a weak (again, a very weak one) front will push toward the area this weekend on Sunday. This could drive some rain showers on Sunday or Sunday evening, and then bring some slightly cooler and drier nights with it. I wouldn’t expect anything too robust, but it should bring daytime and nighttime temperatures down a bit. Highs for the most part look to be in the low 90s for much of next week.

A couple of programming notes

I’ve been working on a post summarizing our summer weather and putting it into historical context. Look for that to publish later this week. Also, we’re really getting near the end of the Texas hurricane season, but I’m not quite ready to make that call yet. Soon, probably.

Before jumping into the forecast, let’s review the widespread rains the region experienced over the last several days. The map below displays rainfall total estimates for the previous week across the metro area. As always there is a broad variation in the precipitation over such a broad area, with some areas receiving as little as 0.25 inch, and others near Clear Lake more than 6 inches. But pretty much everyone received at a least a modest soaking during the Thursday through Saturday period.

The window for widespread rainfall will now close for awhile, with only a smattering of afternoon chances later this week. Overall, the forecast looks to be fairly boring, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low 90s. It will, essentially, be weather typical for late summer in Houston. This is the time of year when we can realistically start looking to mid-range models to see if any significant fronts are on the horizon. Alas, I just checked. There are not.

Monday

Drier air is moving into the region, and we’re going to bottom out with dew points in the 50s this afternoon. That will make our highs in the low 90s feel a bit more comfortable. Skies will be mostly sunny today with light easterly winds. Temperatures this evening should be fairly pleasant, about 80 degrees, with slightly slower humidity. Outdoor plans would be a good thing. Lows tonight will reach their lowest this week, probably, with low 70s in the city. Some lucky inland locations will see the upper 60s tonight.

Tuesday

We’ll have one more day with slightly drier air, but the onshore flow is headed back on Tuesday, so humidity levels will only be a stitch below normal levels. Highs, again, should be in the low 90s, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will turn southeasterly. Lows on Tuesday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday through Friday

As high pressure takes control of our weather, we can expect to see highs in the low 90s, sunny skies, and warm nights in the mid-70s. But the ridge won’t be so strong as to preclude a 20 or 30 percent chance of afternoon or evening showers, along with the sea breeze.

Saturday and Sunday

The late week pattern should more or less persist through the weekend. The last gasp of a dying front will approach the region on Sunday, and this may bring a bump in rain chances, but I don’t have much confidence in how that will ultimately play out at this point.

Next week

At this point I’d bet on next week’s weather being similar to this week’s—there’s just not a whole lot of change in the near-term forecast.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics continue to sizzle with activity, with Hurricane Nigel following behind the now dissipated Hurricane Lee, and potentially more storms on the way. Fortunately Nigel does not appear to be a threat to land. Moreover, the Gulf of Mexico continues to look exceptionally quiet for at least the next week. Head over to The Eyewall for a full rundown on the tropics today, and every day.

I hope everyone is having a great weekend. After the widespread showers and thunderstorms the region experienced on Friday afternoon, we just wanted to provide a quick update for the rest of the weekend, and early next week.

The overall pattern remains more or less in place today, with a stationary boundary and a moist atmosphere capable of supporting rain storms. Conditions should remain fairly calm this morning, but by noon we should start to see the development of showers to the west of the Houston metro area, and these will gradually move eastward. The most likely time for showers and at least a few thunderstorms will be this afternoon and early evening. The western half of Houston is more likely to see showers than the eastern half; call it a 50 percent chance west of downtown, and a 30 percent chance to the east. Highs today will top out at about 90 degrees, give or take, with partly sunny skies.

By Sunday we should see the influx of drier air, which should shut down rain chances. Plan outdoor activities with confidence with daytime highs in the low 90s and mostly sunny skies.

As the drier air moves in, the city will see some slightly cooler mornings on Monday and Tuesday, with some far inland areas perhaps briefly dropping into the upper 60s. It’s not fall, but we’re not that far away from fall now. Highs for most of next week will probably slot somewhere in to the low 90s.