Eric Berger

Good afternoon. Just a short-ish update this afternoon because, you know, meteorologists want to watch the Texans playoff game as well. Not a whole lot has changed from the forecast we published this morning. So for this post we’re going to summarize the forecast and impacts, and attempt to answer some questions readers have. Be forewarned: We don’t have absolute answers.

Forecast

An Arctic front will push into Houston overnight, likely moving through the downtown area before sunrise, and reaching the coast by sunrise or a little bit afterward. This will not be a ‘blue norther’ front in that while the winds will shift to come from the north, they are not likely to be howling. Temperatures will remain above freezing on Sunday, and should remain at or above freezing for the majority of the metro area Sunday night with the usual exceptions, places like Montgomery and Conroe.

Monday is going to be a cold day. Most of the region will be in the 30s, with mostly cloudy skies. A passing disturbance will bring light, scattered rain showers into the area beginning late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Most of our model guidance still indicates this precipitation will fall as rain in Houston, with a transition to freezing rain northwest of the metro area, perhaps roughly along Highway 105. Bottom line: It’s going to be miserable outside in Houston on Monday, but you should be able to get out and about. We’re continuing to watch the freezing line closely, of course.

A secondary push of cold, Arctic air will arrive on Monday and that will nudge nighttime temperatures lower on Monday night. But there’s still a pretty broad range of uncertainty on how far the mercury drops on Monday night, depending on cloud cover and other factors. Our advice: prepare for a hard freeze in Houston, but don’t be surprised if temperatures are a little warmer. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning continues to look like the coldest night of the forecast period, when much of the metro area will drop into the upper teens to mid-20s. I don’t feel confident putting a finer point on those temperatures yet. We emerge from the icebox on Wednesday.

Now, let’s try to tackle some questions.

Is the power going to go out?

We’re weather forecasters, not power prognosticators, and so we have limited insight. Statewide temperatures do look 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the exceptional cold that led to widespread power outages in February 2021, and the state has invested in “winterizing” the grid in the three years since that disaster. All of that makes us feel pretty good about the state avoiding prolonged outages.

So far state officials have not called for conservation next week. But it seems like that may be possible, especially on Monday and Tuesday mornings, when the demand forecast from ERCOT is near to the expected supply. In any case, we’ll all see what happens together.

Are there going to be Airport delays?

If we get freezing rain at Bush Intercontinental Airport (or Hobby, for that matter) then yes, there could be some significant flight delays on Monday. But that does not seem likely at this time. For the most part this is going to be the story of cold weather rather than a winter storm. The optimist in me thinks that while there may be some airport delays on Monday and Tuesday, they probably will be due to the destination airports rather than conditions at Houston terminals. The pessimist in me is saying, “Uhh, dude, you’re out of your depth here.” Which is true.

Is school going to be canceled?

Monday is a holiday, to mark Martin Luther King Jr. Day. If our forecast is wrong, and we get more rain than expected on Monday, and conditions are a little colder, than we could see some icy bridges and overpasses on Monday night into Tuesday morning in Houston. That would be a reason to cancel schools in the Houston metro area on Tuesday. But right now we don’t anticipate that happening.

We should have even more confidence in the forecast by tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are going to be blustery and cold, with wind chills in the 20s or teens. Is concern about exposure getting to and from school a reason to cancel it? That’s not my call. But at present our expectation is that roads will remain passable during this winter event.

Should I drive to Dallas or Austin on Monday?

These are going to be difficult calls. Right now there’s a chance of light, freezing rain on Interstate 10 and Highway 290 on Sunday night and Monday. Will there be enough to stick on highways? Maybe a few bridges and overpasses. But I don’t feel great about making that call on driving to Austin right now.

As for Dallas, or places like Shreveport, I’m a little more confident that we’re going to see some decent freezing rain or sleet accumulations that could make travel hazardous. So if you’re heading north of The Woodlands on I-45, or north of Cleveland on Highway 59 on Sunday afternoon or Monday, I’d definitely check road conditions before leaving.

Is it going to snow?

Yes. But not in Houston. For any appreciable totals, you’re probably going to have to travel to Oklahoma or Arkansas on Sunday or Monday. Which, as noted above, is not advisable.

Good morning. The Arctic front is approaching Texas as I write this, and will sweep through the state today and tonight. It will arrive in Houston on Sunday morning, but then may stall near the coast. We’re monitoring a couple of threats from this outbreak of much colder air, including the potential for freezing rain on Sunday night and Monday, and very cold temperatures on Monday and Tuesday nights. Read on below for the latest.

Saturday

After a cold start, today is going to be sunny and lovely. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-60s with plenty of sunshine and light winds. If you have final winterization activities to undertake, today is the day.

Sunday

The front should push into the Houston metro area on Sunday morning, reaching The Woodlands and Katy a couple of hours after midnight, and pushing down to the coast by around sunrise or shortly thereafter. The front should more or less stall along the coast, and this may lead to a fairly widespread divergence in high temperatures on Sunday.

Houston Marathon conditions

I want to say a few words about the Houston Marathon, and what my fellow runners can expect. At this point conditions don’t look extremely cold for the run, but they do look decidedly chilly. With the front likely arriving just before we call cram into corrals, you can expect race time temperatures of about 40 degrees, give or take. Winds will be out of the north at 10 mph or so, with some higher gusts, so with the wind chill it will likely feel like the mid-30s or so. I expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for most of the morning and early afternoon. The good news is that I don’t anticipate any precipitation with the front, or afterward, so we should stay dry. Please dress accordingly.

Highs on Sunday afternoon will vary depending on your location. Areas near the coast may warm up to about 50 degrees, but locations to the north and west of Houston may stay stubbornly in the upper 30s. In any case, there should be no difficulty getting around.

Sunday night and Monday

It looks like most of Houston will remain just above freezing on Sunday night and into Monday. It will be quite cold, in the upper 30s, probably. That’s good, because there is a chance of some light precipitation late on Sunday night and Monday as a modest disturbance crosses the area. In terms of accumulations, it’s not going to amount to much. But the concern is freezing rain, and potential icing on bridges and overpasses. All of our available modeling continues to suggest that the threat of this in Houston is low, as temperatures should remain just above freezing on Monday.

The bigger threat comes to the north of Houston, roughly along Highway 105, and to the west of Sealy. Needless to say we’ll be keeping close tabs on the potential for any freezing rain near or in the Houston metro area as plenty of uncertainty remains. Finally, if you’re traveling to north Texas on Monday, the potential for freezing rain and sleet is much higher as you head that way. Precautions are most definitely warranted for any travel north on Interstate 45 beyond Conroe.

Monday night and Tuesday

Rain chances end later on Monday, and we’re going to see stronger northerly winds. This is when a second surge of colder air will move in. This reinforcing front will drive lows into the 20s for the Houston metro area on Tuesday morning, but we still have some questions about how cold it is going to get. There is a scenario in which mostly cloudy skies help keep most of the metro area at 25 degrees or higher on Tuesday morning. But if skies clear faster we could see lows bottom out at about 20 degrees, with high teens for Katy and The Woodlands. All of this looks pretty cold, but manageable.

Most locations along and south of Interstate 10 should briefly climb above freezing on Tuesday, but areas further inland may struggle to reach freezing temperatures. In any case, it will be sunny and cold. But with dry conditions it should be fine to be out and about.

Tuesday night and Wednesday

With clear skies and lighter winds, Tuesday night should bring ideal conditions for cooling into Houston. I expect the urban core of Houston to drop to between 20 and 25 degrees, which will be a hard freeze. Outlying areas, including The Woodlands and Katy, will have a risk of dropping into the upper teens.

By Wednesday afternoon, with lots of sunshine, we should see highs comfortably in the 40s. This will bring an end to the risk of a hard freeze.

We’ll have an update this afternoon to refresh any changes in this forecast. Have a great Saturday, everyone.

Good evening. We’re continuing to track the evolving forecast for a hard freeze in Houston, which has implications for the Houston Marathon on Sunday, the MLK Parade on Monday, and a host of other activities in Houston and beyond in the state of Texas. This post will update all of that, and well as provide a more holistic view of impacts to Texas. Be sure to read that section if you’re planning to be driving among the cities of Houston, Austin, Dallas, and Fort Worth on Monday.

How to follow us

Before jumping into the forecast, I want to provide a short summary of how to find and follow Space City Weather as the prospect of a freeze has brought us new readers.

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The latest forecast

Not a whole lot has changed today, in comparison to what Matt wrote this morning. Today’s blustery winds will settle down this evening, and after a chilly night in the 30s we’ll see a very pleasant Saturday. Look for highs in the mid-60s with plenty of sunshine and light southerly winds. It’s a near ideal winter weekend day. Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will end soon thereafter.

Most of the model guidance is still bringing an Arctic front into Houston by around sunrise, plus or minus a few hours, on Sunday morning. This will be a cold day, likely with high temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s for most locations. If you’re running the Houston Marathon, I’ll have a full rundown of what to expect for race weather in Saturday morning’s post.

Most of the metro area should remain just above freezing on Sunday night, or experience a light freeze at most. But we start to have some concerns on Monday, a holiday for many in remembrance of Martin Luther King Jr. It will be a cold day, with highs likely in the upper 30s for most. That’s fine, but there is the threat of some light precipitation during the daytime hours. This is likely to fall as freezing rain north of Houston, perhaps in The Woodlands, or perhaps further north. I still don’t feel confident in saying how much of an impact this is going to have an roadways, especially if the rain stops while temperatures are still above freezing, and the winds help dry roads. But it could be factor Monday evening or Tuesday morning. We’ll see.

Monday night has been trending slightly warmer in some recent model runs, but I still think most of the area is going to fall below 25 degrees, with sub-20 degree temperatures possible for areas west of Houston (i.e. Katy) and north of Houston (i.e. The Woodlands). However this is something we’ll continue to monitor.

Tuesday is going to be sunny and cold, with highs perhaps around freezing, perhaps a degree or two above freezing. This will set the stage for ideal cooling on Tuesday night, with lows likely dropping into the low 20s in the urban core of Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. How cold? We’re just going to have to continue to monitor temperature trends. We warm up Wednesday and will be in the clear in regard to freezing temperatures.

Texas temperatures

Let’s step back and take a broader look at the state of Texas, as a whole. To begin with, I went back and pulled the record cold temperatures for Texas during the depth of the 2021 freeze, which occurred in mid-February.

Amarillo	-11 degrees
Austin	8 degrees
Corpus Christi	17 degrees
Dallas	-2 degrees
El Paso	14 degrees
Houston	12 degrees
San Antonio	9 degrees
Waco	-1 degree

Next, let’s look at the current forecast for low temperatures next week. I’m showing the map for Tuesday, since that will be the coldest morning for the vast majority of the state. If you compare the record lows above, most locations will be solidly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the cold snap.

This is one reason why we have some (not total, to be sure) confidence that the statewide electricity grid will hold up next week. ERCOT, for its part, expects “normal” conditions next week in terms of grid performance.

Sleeting in the Lone Star State

Beyond the cold conditions, the other concern for statewide weather is the potential for wintry precipitation to muck up roadways. Atmospheric conditions do not favor snowfall in Texas—sorry kids. However there is likely to be some overrunning precipitation on Sunday night Monday across the eastern half of the state, meaning that there will be a layer of warmer and wetter air aloft, and this will allow for sleet or freezing rain to fall. Forecasting this kind of precipitation in Texas is always a challenge, so this is something of a hand-waving exercise. But in terms of timing there is a chance of some light, freezing rain from from roughly Austin to College Station to the northern Houston suburbs on Monday. Here is how the GFS model forecasts freezing rain early next week:

Somewhere along the way from Houston to Dallas, this freezing rain it is going to turn to sleet. There is a pretty simple reason for this. Freezing rain is very cold rain that freezes when it hits the ground. Sleet is rain that re-freezes before it reaches the ground, and is sometimes referred to as ice pellets. So as temperatures get colder near the surface, sleet becomes more likely. But it’s difficult to say where this turnover will occur. Accordingly, sleet or freezing rain will be possible on Sunday night and Monday in parts of north and East Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The bottom line is that, if your plans call for travel between Houston, Dallas, and Austin on Monday, you should pay close attention to road conditions before setting out.

In summary, a serious cold spell is coming to Texas. The good news is that it will not be nearly as cold as 2021, nor last nearly as long. Our electricity grid and the power plants that supply it have also been winterized since then. There still could be problems, but I don’t expect them to be insane like three years ago.

We’ll be back with a comprehensive post on Saturday morning.

As promised, we’re providing a p.m update on the cold weather we’re anticipating that will arrive in Houston, beginning Sunday. We’ll be doing twice-a-day updates through the weekend to keep you abreast of what’s happening—this is a fairly dynamic situation, and the forecast is changing as a result.

This afternoon we want to try and provide some clarity on what we think are the three biggest issues: timing of the cold weather onset, chances for wintry precipitation (i.e. freezing rain), and how cold it is going to get early next week. What about electricity? At this time we don’t think there will be widespread power outages with this cold outbreak. While that it is possible, it is beyond our ability to forecast. But given that the Texas power grid held up during the 2022 freeze, there is no credible reason to think it will buckle with this cold weather outbreak.

When will the front arrive

The majority of model data now supports a faster arrival, with the cold front initially reaching the Houston area on Sunday morning. If this ultimately happens, it has implications for the Houston marathon, both the runners and wonderful volunteers. This forecast is still uncertain, but it seems likely that race time temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Right now I’d lean toward 30s.

Fortunately, the passage of this front is likely to be dry. There also is no indication, at present, of strong northerly winds. So while there may be gusts on the order of 15 to 20 mph, I don’t see much evidence of crazy strong winds we sometimes get with “blue norther” fronts. So expect partly sunny and cold on Sunday, with daytime temperatures perhaps in the upper 30s. We should have more confidence in these temperatures in a day or so. But confidence is high that it’s going to be cold.

The very coldest air is going to be delayed, so my expectation for Sunday night is that much of the region will probably experience, at most, a light freeze. This really should not raise too much of a concern. Daytime temperatures on Monday should be above freezing for most of the region.

Chances for wintry precipitation

Sunday looks dry, as does Sunday night. After that? Well, quite frankly it’s too early to say too much. There appears to be a chance of freezing rain during the afternoon or evening hours on Monday. My best guess is, at this point, that the freezing stuff stays north of the metro area. It could be an issue for areas along and north of Texas State Highway 105. It could surprise us and come further south.

So I would say this: We need to consider the possibility of icy roads on Monday evening and during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. I think it’s a fairly low concern within the Houston metro area, that is for The Woodlands and points south. But with that said, it’s far too early to issue any kind of guarantees. We’ll be watching this closely in the coming days, of course.

How cold things will get

Our real concern for cold will come starting Monday night. Temperatures will bottom out in the morning hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast remains fuzzy because there are a lot of factors that will go into how low things get, from clouds to winds, to the amount of Arctic air that spills into Texas. But a good guess is that both nights will see lows in the upper teens to low-20s north of Interstate 10, and low-20s south of Interstate 10. The coast may avoid a hard freeze.

Daytime temperatures on Tuesday probably will briefly get above freezing for most of the metro area, but my confidence in that is fairly low. Houston should then warm comfortably above freezing on Wednesday.

We’ll have a comprehensive update for you on Friday morning.