Good afternoon. As expected, it’s an absolute burner out there today. Houston’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport has already reached 108 degrees as of 4 pm CT, which is 1 degree short of the city’s all-time heat record of 109 degrees. (We matched that record high on Thursday, you may recall). It’s now a race between temperatures and approaching rain showers.
In Friday’s forecast we mentioned the possibility of some late afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing on Sunday, associated with a weak boundary. We are now starting to see those showers forming north of the Houston metro area, and they should gradually move southward into the region throughout the evening hours. Areas where precipitation falls will see drops in temperature associated with rain-cooled air.
Rain showers were starting to pop up just before 4 pm CT in Houston. (RadarScope)
To set expectations, these showers will be very hit or miss. Lucky locations will pick up a few, quick tenths of an inch of rain, whereas other observers will look longingly as the dark clouds and see little, if any precipitation. At this point it looks like the stronger storms are more likely to develop north of Interstate 10, but areas all the way down to the coast at least have a puncher’s chance of seeing some shower activity.
We are entering a brief period where rain will be possible, essentially this evening through Tuesday morning, before a weak front brings some drier air and shuts the door on rain chances for awhile. We’ll have the full story on the forecast ahead in our post on Monday morning, but just wanted to jump in on a Sunday afternoon with a heads up about the rain chances this evening. Good luck out there!
Good morning. Heat remains the dominant storyline of our forecast for the remainder of August, and conditions look to be especially warm from now through the weekend. However, I’m watching for a chance of showers this afternoon and early evening, and for some potential changes in the forecast next week. Also, we’ll discuss a tropical blob in the Caribbean Sea that’s expected to move into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
In terms of wet bulb globe temperatures, Thursday and Friday look to be excessively hot. (Weather Bell)
Thursday
Today is simply going to be blazing hot. Highs will range from near 100 degrees right along the coast to around 105 degrees or higher for inland locations such as Spring, College Station, and Kingwood. Skies will be sunny. With that said, some of our high-resolution modeling is indicating the possibility of an atmospheric disturbance moving southward later today, and this could produce scattered showers from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. I will freely admit that this forecast could be a total bust, especially with high pressure in place. But I think there’s at least some hope for a pleasant surprise with scattered showers this afternoon.
Friday
Another hot day, but temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday. We’ll again see sunny skies, but there’s also the possibility of a few late afternoon showers.
Saturday and Sunday
No changes in terms of temperatures. We’re looking at highs, generally, in the low 100s. Saturday is going to be sunny and hot. Sunday will as well, but at least there appears to be a slight possibility of some rain showers.
Next week
By early next week the dominant high pressure system will be retreating westward, and that at least opens up the possibility of some changes in our forecast. What form, precisely, those will take is yet unclear. At this point I’d guess highs will still be about 100 degrees, but we’ll see some daytime rain chances—whether those are 20 percent or 50 percent, I cannot say. There’s also a slight chance that a weak front pushes down into the region on Tuesday, which could knock humidity levels down a bit. But that is all very tentative. Our weather may also be influenced by a tropical system moving into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Another tropical disturbance could be coming to the Gulf of Mexico early next week. (National Hurricane Center)
The tropics
For a few days now, the European model has been suggesting that a tropical system will emerge in the Western Caribbean Sea, related to the Central American Gyre, which is basically a broad monsoonal low-pressure system over Central America. Under this scenario a tropical low would then move north, into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Note there is far from universal support for this idea in the global models. In any case, such a system would likely remain away from Texas, and push drier air into our region from the northeast. For more detail on this system, check out our Atlantic hurricane coverage on The Eyewall.
Good morning. Before jumping into the forecast I want to briefly touch on Tuesday’s rainfall, as well as our brief reprieve from extremely hot weather. First, the rainfall. Parts of Galveston and Brazoria counties received a few tenths of an inch of rain from fading Tropical Storm Harold on Tuesday. These were welcome, if brief downpours of tropical rains. The vast majority of the region along and north of Interstate 10, however, received no precipitation whatsoever. The bottom line is that, as expected, our ugly and worsening drought continues. See the end of this post for a discussion of rain chances down the line.
Additionally, the cloudy skies and breezy conditions—the strong easterly winds were part of Harold’s circulation—helped keep a lid on high temperatures. Houston’s Hobby Airport topped out at 97 degrees, and Bush Intercontinental peaked at 97 degrees as well. Both of these locations ended long streaks of days with recordings of 100 degrees or higher. Hobby’s streak was remarkable, 18 days, doubling its previous record of nine days. Hobby has collected meteorological data for nearly a century. Bush IAH ended its streak at 23 days, falling one day short of the city’s all-time record of 24 days, set during the torrid month of August 2011.
Streaks of 100-degree days at Hobby Airport. (NWS)
Unfortunately, we’re probably going to start new streaks at both locations today. Harold is gone, and extreme heat is back on the menu for a little while longer.
Wednesday
We’re right back to very hot weather today, with area-wide highs of about 100 degrees, high humidity, and mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift to come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. The key difference for the rest of this week is that we are going to see some weak atmospheric disturbances roll through the area. It’s going to be difficult for these to generate significant rainfall, given the sinking air associated with high pressure. However, it will not be impossible, and therefore each day should carry about a 20 percent chance of rain.
Thursday looks to be extremely hot. (Weather Bell)
Thursday
As high pressure moves almost directly overhead, this should be a very hot day, with highs generally in the low 100s across the area, away from the coast. Afternoon rain chances, again, look to be on the order of 20 percent.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The forecast remains more or less the same, with highs of around 100 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and a puncher’s chance of some rain showers.
Based on wet bulb globe temperatures, things start to look a bit better by early next week. (Weather Bell)
Next week
This is where the forecast starts to get a little bit more interesting. The high pressure system that has dominated our weather for much of this summer looks to fade westward, and this should allow for a slight moderation of temperatures. We may also see some better rain chances by Tuesday or so of next week, but that’s far enough into the future I would not want to bet on anything. But I do have some modest hopes, and the end of August is on the horizon.
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As we’ve been telling you since Friday, the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico—which was upgraded to Tropical Storm Harold overnight—is going to go far enough south of the Houston metro region to preclude us from seeing significant effects. We’ll see some easterly breezes, with decent gusts, and we’ll see some clouds. But unfortunately we’re not going to the kind of significant, widespread rainfall needed to help put a dent in our sharpening drought. Instead, we just get more heat.
Please don’t kill the messenger.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday night. (Pivotal Weather)
Tuesday
Whether you see any effects from Harold will depend on how close you live to the coast. Residents of southern Brazoria and Galveston counties will have the best chances of rain, perhaps 50 percent today, and strongest winds. Gusts above 40 mph are possible today right along the coast. Areas further inland, but south of Interstate 10, will see lesser rain chances of around 30 percent, with slightly less gusty winds. Highs should be below 100 degrees for these areas relatively near the coast.
And parts of Houston north of Interstate 10? Well, it’s just going to be another very hot and mostly sunny day. Highs may reach the low- to mid-100s again for places such as The Woodlands. Rain chances for inland locations are perhaps 10 percent.
Wednesday
This will be a sunny day with highs in the low 100s across the area. With a bit of lingering moisture from Harold, rain chances are perhaps 10 or 20 percent.
Thursday looks to be brutally hot across the region. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
These two days look really hot, with highs in the 105-degree range likely for much of the area. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances are not zero, so perhaps 10 percent daily.
Saturday and Sunday
Don’t get me wrong, these will be hot and mostly sunny days. But as high pressure eases off to the West, highs may drop back down to around 100 degrees. We’ll also see some weak atmospheric disturbances that could spark some scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Please do not get too excited, as I’d peg rain chances at only about 20 percent.
Next week
If you had hot and mostly sunny on your bingo card for next week, congratulations, you’re a winner! However, I don’t think next week will be as hot as this one, and we’re also going to see some modest rain chances. I don’t think they’ll be higher than 20 or 30 percent each day, but that is a sight better than the 0 to 5 percent we’ve experienced for much of this summer. In case you’re wondering, we’re still about three to five weeks away from when we can anticipate our first decent cold front of the season. It can’t come soon enough, I know.
Wet bulb globe temperatures show a slight moderation in the extreme heat next week. (Weather Bell)
Tropics
Beyond Harold, which will bring some tropical winds and rains to South Texas, there is a lot happening out there in the Atlantic. While there are no distinct threats to the Gulf of Mexico, or Texas, that can change fairly quickly at this time of year. Be sure and check The Eyewall for a full rundown of all the activity out there, every morning around 7 am CT. Matt has been nerding out with some book-length posts of late.
