Eric Berger

The region’s drought has steadily worsened this summer, with unrelenting heat and only very isolated to scattered rain showers in July and August. At the start of summer there were virtually no dry or drought conditions anywhere near the greater Houston region. Now half of the area is is an exceptional drought, and the other area is in an extreme drought. (They’re both bad, but exceptional is worse).

While the rains we’re going to receive in the next several days aren’t going to break the drought, they can at least start to put a dent in it. And psychologically, for a lot of us, they’re going to feel oh so good. Beginning Wednesday, and persisting through Saturday, we’re going to see daily rain chances on the order of 40 to 60 percent as a disturbed pattern stalls overhead and helps to generate lift in the atmosphere. Most of the area probably will see, on average, 1 inch of rainfall, but there will be a wide variance in totals. Daytime highs will be cooler with the rainfall.

Tuesday

It probably won’t rain today. Oh, there’s perhaps a 15 percent chance of showers this evening, but for the most part we’re going to be sunny and hot, with highs in the upper 90s. A few far inland areas may touch 100 degrees. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with only very light winds. Slight rain chances will continue tonight, with lows in the upper 70s.

Wednesday

This will be another partly to mostly sunny day, but highs are likely to top out in the mid-90s. Rain chances on Wednesday afternoon and evening are probably on the order of 30 to 40 percent. Some stronger thunderstorms will be possible, but for the most part these showers should be fairly light.

Thursday and Friday

These two days will likely carry the best potential for rain, with a healthy 60 percent chance each day. With partly to possibly even mostly cloudy skies, highs likely will top out in the low 90s. (Some locations may actually top out in the upper 80s, if you can believe that). Afternoons will be the most favored time period for showers and thunderstorms, although they will be possible overnight as well.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will offer one more healthy chance of rainfall, with highs in the low 90s. After this time a weak front will be moving toward the area, and this should bring slightly drier air and mostly end the potential for rainfall. So we should be back to mostly sunny skies on Sunday, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Nighttime temperatures to start next week should be a bit cooler with the drier air. I’ll go with lows around 70 degrees in Houston, but there is definitely some wiggle room to go a little bit cooler or a little bit warmer.

Next week

I’d love to tell you that we’re going to slip even further into fall next week, but it looks like Houston will fall on the periphery of another high pressure system, and this is likely to bump our high temperatures back into the mid-90s for awhile. The worst of summer is over, but alas, summer is not over.

Thanks to a drier airmass this weekend, we’ve seen overnight low temperatures dropping from their extreme highs this summer. Lows this weekend at Bush Intercontinental Airport were 71 and 70 degrees on Saturday and Sunday mornings. This slightly drier air will start to mix out over the next couple of days, leading to a better chance of rain later this week.

Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s to start the week, but should cool off a bit with the better rain chances toward the end of the week. And another weak front appears to be on the horizon by late weekend that may—just maybe—push daytime highs into the upper 80s for some locations. No promises!

Monday

With light northeasterly winds today, we’re going to see continued sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Due to the light winds, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has issued an Ozone Action Day, meaning that atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for producing high levels of ozone pollution today. People who are sensitive to this should take precautions such as limiting time outdoors. Low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer, likely in the mid-70s for much of the area. This is still considerably cooler than we’ve experienced for most of the summer.

Tuesday

Another sunny day, a lot like Monday. However as winds become easterly and southeasterly we’ll see a bit more humidity. Expect mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances remain essentially zero.

Wednesday and Thursday

The atmosphere turns more perturbed by mid-week, and with slightly higher atmospheric moisture levels we should start to see better rain chances by Wednesday afternoon or evening. Daily rain chances will be on the order of 40 to 50 percent, probably. Showers most likely will not last super long, but some areas could receive a decent soaking of a few tenths of an inch of rainfall, or more. Daytime highs will depend on the extent of rain and cloud cover, but for the most part expect temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday

Our rain chances look to peak on Friday, with coverage of perhaps 60 or 70 percent of the area. Look for highs, again, to be in the low- to mid-90s. Accumulations for Saturday look higher for inland areas, perhaps an inch or more, and lesser closer to the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Some rain chances will linger into Saturday, but for the most part skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances should end definitively by Sunday, as another weak front appears likely to push into the area. The extent of this front’s influence remains a bit unclear, but we should at least see some drier and slightly cooler air by Sunday or Monday night.

Next week

Most of next week should see sunny skies, with highs possibly in the upper 80s to start the week, before warming back into the low- to mid-90s.

I’m not ready to declare “Fall Day” yet, as that comes with the season’s first decently strong front, which knocks air temperatures down to 65 degrees or below. And this definitely is not “fall-like” weather. But it is fairly typical for mid-September, and an improvement from a few weeks ago.

Good morning. Today is likely to be the final, exceptionally hot day of 2023. I expect temperatures to reach 100 to 107 degrees across the metro area today underneath sunny skies. We also have a pretty good chance of peaking at 100 degrees on Saturday before temperatures dip just a bit by Sunday. That’s interesting from a historical perspective in terms of 100-degree days. To date, we have recorded 44 such days this calendar year.

Back in 2011, which anyone who lived here probably hasn’t forgotten, the city recorded 46 days with highs of at least 100 degrees. That broke a record previously set during 1980, 32 days. So with today a certainty to hit 100, and Saturday quite possibly, that would allow us to tie the record set in 2011. Will we break it? Certainly we will have some days in the mid- to upper 90s in the week ahead. But I’m not sure we get another 100-degree day. And to be honest, I’m OK with not breaking the record. Aren’t you?

Friday

Today is going to be excessively hot, no way to get around that. We’re going to see much of the area push into the 105-degree range and it’s going to be miserable. The only good thing I can tell you is that this really is our last fling with ridiculously hot weather in 2023. We really are going to see a pattern change to cool things off (a bit) next week, and then we’re into late September and this madness will be over. But no getting around that today is going to be brutally hot and you definitely need to take heat precautions.

One thing we’re watching for is the possibility of late-afternoon and evening storms dropping down into the Houston region from the northeast today. It’s possible as the capping inversion probably will be weak later today. In runs produced last night, some of the high-resolution models got really aggressive in developing these storms, but they have since backed off. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has the northeastern part of the metro area under a “slight” chance for seeing severe weather, likely in the form of thunderstorms and damaging winds, later today. My sense is that any strong storms fizzle before reaching Houston, but there is a chance.

Saturday

Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with perhaps a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will depend on rainfall amounts and timing. For the most part these showers will bring only light accumulations of rain, but a few areas may get higher totals under stronger storms. For the most part, when it’s not raining, skies will be mostly sunny.

Sunday

Look for mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s as the high pressure ridge recedes westward. Rain chances will be on the order of 30 percent, with mostly sunny skies.

Next week

Temperatures will continue to trend downward next week, as a weak front drifts into the region and slightly lowers our humidity levels. Basically, we’ll probably see highs in the low- to mid-90s for much of the week, with perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain each day. Who knows, a few areas may even see a high in the upper 80s on a day or two. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the 70s. It’s not going to feel fall-like like, but it certainly will feel a lot more like late summer, which is how it is supposed to feel in mid-September.

Unfortunately, while most of us will see rainfall, I don’t see the kind of drenching rains we need to break the region’s worsening drought. Still, 0.5 to 1 inch over the next week is much better than nothing, and far more than many of us received in July and August.

Steel thyselves, my friends, for one more go with extreme heat. As high pressure gets stacked up over the region, we’re going to have one more fling with temperatures substantially above 100 degrees over the next two days before we (slowly) start to moderate into somewhat more civilized weather. Next week should start to look more like a typical late summer pattern, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and much improved rain chances. Nighttime lows should also start to feel a bit cooler as well.

Thursday

Highs today will range from about 100 to 105 degrees across much of the region, with only a very slight southerly wind. Skies will be sunny, and a heat advisory is in place for this afternoon and evening. There is perhaps a 10 to 20 percent chance of rain for inland areas later today, but I would have very low expectations for that to occur.

Friday

Our heat will peak on Friday, and this will be a scorcher. Much of the area will likely reach high temperatures of around 105 degrees, with ample sunshine. There are two things to watch for. Along with the heat we’re going to see healthy wildfire chances. And secondly, there is an upper-level disturbance that will be most prominent in North Texas, but could affect our weather as well.

By late Friday evening it is possible that this disturbance drives some sort of line of storms down into the Houston metro area, likely reaching the city just before or after midnight. Not all of our modeling is showing this to happen, but given the potential for instability in the atmosphere I think it’s possible. In any case, it’s something we should have a better handle on in tomorrow morning’s forecast update.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is still going to be hot, don’t get me wrong. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees with mostly sunny skies. But we’re going to see a pretty decent chance of showers, whether it comes early in the morning with the aforementioned disturbance, or later in the day. Then I would expect highs on Sunday to peak in the mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies and another healthy chance (maybe 40 or 50 percent) chance of rainfall.

Next week

The forecast is still uncertain for next week, but I think it’s likely that the combination of a weak front and high pressure moving out west that we’re going to see highs mostly in the low 90s by the middle to end of next week. Nighttime lows should also finally start dropping into the 70s, with some slightly less humid air. Add in some pretty decent daily rain chances, and you’ve got yourself the region’s most moderate week of weather since summer began in Houston, I don’t know, what seems like 15 years ago.

With that said, these next two days are going to be brutally hot, so be sure and take care of yourselves, your family, and your neighbors.