Good morning. Although the coldest weather for Houston will actually come over the next two nights, much of the rest of Texas is experiencing the lowest temperatures of this Arctic outbreak right now. Because of this, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT is asking Texans to conserve power from 6 am to 10 am CT on Monday. Expect another call for conservation on Tuesday morning.
The agency has not said whether it will institute rolling blackouts if demand exceeds power reserves, but that certainly seems possible. You can track power grid status in real time, here. Please note that, at this time, there is no reason to believe that we will see extended blackouts like we experienced during the deep freeze in February 2021.
Now, let’s jump into the forecast.
Monday
We’re starting the new week in a chilly posture, with areas inland of Interstate 10 generally experiencing a freeze. For far inland areas, such as Brenham and College Station, temperatures are already well into hard freeze territory. In Houston’s urban core temperatures are holding at or just above freezing. Arctic air will continue surging into the region today, and temperatures are likely to hover at about freezing levels, or just above or below, for much of the day.
The big question, of course, is precipitation and the extent to which we see freezing rain. We expect to see a mix of very light precipitation and drizzle today in the Houston metro area, with accumulations on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. With temperatures hovering near freezing levels, some of this is bound to fall as freezing rain, leading to concerns about icing on bridges and overpasses. Overall, we don’t anticipate a major ice storm or anything like that in our region, but icy conditions are something to be cognizant of today if you’re out and about. You can check local roadway conditions at Houston Transtar, where icy conditions will be reported. Statewide conditions can be found at Drive Texas. As expected there are a flurry of ice issues well north of the Houston area, particularly around the Dallas area and East Texas. Travel to those locations is not recommended today.
Tonight will be quite cold, especially with a northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph (higher at the coast) piling on wind chill. Air temperatures will drop into the mid-20s in Houston, with colder conditions further inland (a hard freeze) and slightly warmer conditions near the coast. Even Galveston could experience a light freeze. Tuesday morning will feel very cold outside:
As for roads, I think the combination of dry air and windy conditions will remove any moisture and ice. So my best guess is that while conditions will be very cold tonight and into Tuesday, roads should be dry. That is dependent on how much precipitation we get today, of course. We’ll update these icy roads predictions later this afternoon.
Tuesday
After the cold start to the day, highs may reach the low- to mid-30s in Houston underneath sunny skies, but those persistent winds will keep a chill in the air. Areas well inland are likely to remain below freezing throughout the day. As winds die down on Tuesday night, we’ll see ideal conditions for cooling. Expect lows to bottom out from 20 to 25 degrees in the urban core of Houston, with colder temperatures inland.
Wednesday
After a very cold start, highs should warm to about 50 degrees on Wednesday with sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night should remain comfortably in the 40s.
Thursday
A warmer day, with highs in the upper 60s and partly sunny skies. Another fairly robust front arrives on Thursday night-ish, returning colder conditions to the area.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
We are going to experience highs in the upper 40s or lower 50s through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies. Lows may reach freezing on Saturday morning in Houston, but it should be a light freeze.
At 11pm Sun night, I turned faucets on a drip in the barn apartment, and in the house (here in Magnolia) because temps were already at 28°f. Right now (7am Mon) it’s 25°f (it was 22°f at 5.30am when I woke up).
.
In Feb 2021, we had one pipe burst in house attic, and one in a stall (horse water feed) in the barn (even though I turned off the water well pump). No pipe event in the Dec 2022 sub-freeze. Fingers crossed until Wed.
Turning off helps but you have to drain the system to be safe.
Yea, I did drain after turning off water well, but there’s always residual water sitting in the pipes 👍
Maybe Texas should be spending money to fix the grid rather than billions on the border.
Until we clean up the patriarchal, good-buddy regime that exemplifies politics and big oil in Texas, us little folks are screwed and the grid issue will never be fixed.
The Haves don’t now care about the Have-nots, nor will they ever. Example: when that weasel Ted Cruz skipped town during The Big Chill and the voters not holding him accountable.
The ultra rich have whole-house generators in their mega mansions and will never suffer as we do. Do you really think THEY are conserving energy the way we’ve all been asked to do? Highly unlikely.
Exactly!
We’re at 25.2 in downtown Conroe. Just had a light sprinkle of freezing rain. Enough to stick on the porch railings.
I appreciate your spot-on reliable, no hype forecasts, and learning about our always exciting weather patterns! I’m a loyal Space Cadet!
You know, when I retire I’d like to live somewhere where the infrastructure doesn’t turn to crap simply because it gets below freezing. Like the heat in our office building, which is broken today.
You know, some place not too hot, not too cold. No hurricanes. Less weather stress.
Colorado is looking better and better every year. Plus, there are….other benefits! 😀
Wildfires!
Sure because it never gets cold and the lights never go out, it does and they do, I’ve lived there I know. And by the way pot won’t keep you warm unless you throw it in the wood stove.
Colorado is lovely, we lived there for many years, but every September the snow came visiting. It isn’t nice to be cold for so long.
I was thinking Tennesee-ish. Just stay home when it ices, which would be no problem for a retiree. TVA power has a lot of hydro and nuclear, so you’re less worried about the wind not blowing or the sun not shinning. Four seasons, no hurricanes.
Dude, just move then if it bothers you that much.
This holiday is a good day to enjoy staying inside, binge watch some TV, nap, and eat down the supplies of stocked food. Thanks to SCW for the continued no-hype, no nonsense weather updates!
Driving to and from work today is my greatest stressor, I don’t begrudge you some well-deserved relaxation in front of the hearth.
Love how ERCOT goes from we have plenty to handle the cold to asking we conserve and possible rolling blackouts in just 2 days. They continue to underperform. Regular folks get fired for this kind of failure.
What do you expect? Cancun Cruz hasn’t been fired for his years of failure and embarrassment. Heard he’s booking one.
going to be hard to fire the wind for not blowing hard enough in the morning.
Why are gas turbines not available to come on during high demand, no wind and sunlight situations. This is common on the PJM system for example. Owners get well paid for having these available to go on with little notice. Curious.
It’s a problem with the investments we have made in the power grid. Too many non-dispatchable renewables, and even natural gas can be subject to low supply if wells or plants freeze up. Blame our policy makers for subsidizing and providing the wrong incentives.
Plus, who’s going to agree to a low-interest loan to build a power plant that will rarely run? So far, nobody. That ill was just a political stunt.
It’s at 30° at the east side where I live, some people are saying it’s only 36° in similar locations somehow.
What the hell it’s snowing and sleeting at 1PM, it’s supposed to be a dry 37° by now but it’s 29°. Don’t complain about the inaccuracy guys, they never said they were 100% sure.
Am I supposed to be watching the “feels like” or the raw air temp for bridges icing over? I know that bridges lose heat because the air can blow under and over them, and they don’t have the heat coming from the ground, so they freeze first, but I’m getting told that they can freeze when the raw air temp is well above freezing– this doesn’t make sense to me, but they insist it’s the ‘feels like’ temps that freeze the air. Can you please clarify?
When you hear meteorologist talk about feels like temps it is discussed more with how wind affects our bodies heat transfer when outside.
For your question relating to water freezing, its more complicated. Hope someone here or you find that answer in other online sites
Bridges can be icy when the air temperature is above freezing. Surface temperature can be less than air temperature for a number of reasons. That’s why you can have frost outside, or your car windshield parked outside can be iced over, even when the air temperature is 34 or 35 degrees.
This has been the worst forecasted weather event I have ever seen. The models just did not pick up that this front was going to dip the temperatures this low last night and they countinue going lower now. Even Space City Weather have been off on that. Just to show you that the models are terrible in forecasting a couple of the two most important things about weather: how low temperatures get and if its going to rain or not. Never gets those things right. I suggest for Houstonians to prepare for even lower temperatures than what anyone is saying. You just cant trust the forecasts. It has been below zero on the west side since 8 pm on Sunday… that was not on the menu at all.
The worst? OK…
“Below zero?” On the west side of what? Des Moines?
Below 0 Celsius maybe?
Below zero on the west side? West side of what? Minnesota?
I live on the west side of Houston and we’re just above freezing right now.
to be fair it did get below freezing in Katy at around 10 pm
Just above freezing in the urban core? We’ve had a hard freeze here in Oak Forest since one am. Nice wiff on the forecast.
I don’t think anybody considers Oak Forest the urban core. Oak Forest is in the northwest part of Houston which was predicted to be colder than the middle and southern part of Houston.
It’s also freezing in the Heights. Which definitely is core Houston. No forecast is perfect and I was prepared already yesterday, which btw Matt suggested in one of the posts
National Weather Service forecasting has been quite poor. At midnight last night their forecast for my area was a low of 31 degrees and the forecast high for today was 35 degrees with rain. The actual low last night was 27.5 degrees and now they forecast that it will not get above freezing for all of today, high of 31 with a “wintry mix!” When temperatures are around freezing, errors of a few degrees are huge. NWS needs a better way to communicate uncertainty in their forecasting; they’ve had a problem with this for as long as I can remember.
Please send me a email every day
A lot of us were counting on today not being sub freezing as per the SCW temperature chart from yesterday. It went sub freezing at my house at 610 / I/10 (urban core) early this morning and has been for almost 8 hours. This is a critical mistake for folks who are watching the hours under sub freezing forecasts to make decisions on pipes. Now concerned about whether we get above freezing today at all or if that whiffs too. Same with tomorrow.
One could make the decision to prepare ahead of time. We all have that opportunity.
Very prepared. But time sub freezing impacts whether it’s better for us to drain or not. Regardless of preparation.
“One could make the decision to prepare ahead of time. We all have that opportunity.”
True, there’s something about wise and foolish virgins in the bible.
It’s been between 23 – 25F out here in Sealy for several hours, and we’ve gotten sporadic light freezing rain and sleet since roughly 5 AM. I’m seeing high temperature forecast to be around freezing or slightly above depending upon the source, but kind of doubt it will make it out of the 20s at any point today.
Orrr…. ERCOT could do all the maintenace and upgrades that they were supposed to have done 3 years ago. Naahhh…
We’re at the edge of the encroaching cold air mass, and the Gulf air has been pushing back against it, like two giants in an arm wrestle. So, we’re literally on the front line and it’s a fluid situation as the battle moves NW/SE.
So the models keep changing as they monitor it. Let’s be patient with the models… ⚘
🌬 ❄❄❄
One of the great things about SCW is the human explanation that accompanies all the information that Eric & Matt give. They bring the overall picture into 3D and we can see what they see. And they share all of it with us. We are so lucky to have these guys 💕
Eric & Matt certainly lower my stress levels ☺️
I’ve never felt such devotion and trust to any weather site like I do with SCW. No other site even comes close. They are in a higher dimension 🌠
I love SCW. Tysm Matt & Eric 🌬🌹
I just went out and turned off the water at the main and drained the lines (in The Heights). I was hoping to do it a little later this morning, but the temp just keeps dropping. Currently at 28.3, don’t think we are going to get up above freezing at all today.
It is currently 27 in Sweeny. The rain water on my truck is already starting to freeze.
Thank you guys for you working hard for your perdition of the weather. We still have our boat in Clear Lake ,but we moved up to the hill country where it went into the teens 2 days ago and have not came up yet.. not bitching because it’s by choice. We are both in our 70s and have seen a lot of weather changes,but what never seems to amaze me is the ignorance of people. Like everyone I don’t understand this Ercot stuff, but did go on there site and they still get 70% from natural gas, but still trying to force wind and solar down our throats. But that is a whole other gripe. My thoughts is on people who complains about the weather predictions. Theses guys are the best there is, no hype, no BS. But they are not Gods, that can tell exactly what is or is not going to happen. It’s up to us to take it in, and use what do many has lost, is common sense and make our on decisions of what to do. Even a 5 year old knows if it’s cold or not, if there is ice on the walk way, and there eyelids are froze over. Use what God has given you, and you will survive,period. If not then go complane somewhere else. If it’s cold outside, put a coat on, if you think a freeze is coming in, or a hurricane might come your way, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Quit pointing your fingers at them, because if you notice you have 3 fingers pointing back at you. Take responsibility for your own actions. Now I will get off my soapbox,scrape my windshield off, pray I have no busted pipes, and thank God for one more day. Thank you guys, y’all are doing a great job.
This is the kind of forecast bust I like! Surprise snow on the west side!
Tough crowd. Expectations of forecasting within 5 degrees with an event like this is not realistic. The gradient of temperature from the coast inland is relatively steep, so it is always going to be pretty variable. I am not a meteorologist, just someone who does not expect perfection out of forecasts, so err on the cautious side.
The National Weather Service needs to make clear what you just stated. They never do. In fact, in their forecast discussion this morning, they stated that their forecast was “on track,” when in fact they blew it, took a lot of people by surprise and probably made some people overconfident on the roads earlier today. What they need to do when they have a low confidence forecast is to state explicitly that they have: LOW CONFIDENCE in the forecast and that people should check back every few hours for an updated forecast.
No mention of snow (flurries) and almost no weather forecasters thinking it’d get into the 20’s this morning. Have all the sympathy you want but for all the folks who had to commute in today only to be sent home at lunch, it’s a whiff.
snow flurries in the Galleria (and Clear Lake and all over)
This weather is freaking awful. Please just go away already. Right now it’s looking like the high of today won’t go above freezing point, hopefully not too much precipitation.
What amazes me is that with all this technology and they still can’t get the lows right. There was no forecast to be a freeze last night or today and yet it has been below freezing point all day and night. Make all the excuses you want but the reality is the forecasts were wrong. Few degrees or not, they were incorrect! Which is why I agree with others that it’s kind of pointless to be reading all these updates and posts when the info ends up being wrong anyway. Im glad I didnt have to walk to a bus stop today thinking it would be above freezing only to be faced with freezing temperatures all day. Not everyone is indoors all the time! I feel like a lot of these forecasts cater to people who dont do anything outdoors.
I am panicking because if the temps are this low now are they gonna get much lower than predicted? The prediction for this morning was 37 and we are at 27, thats 10 degrees less! Please advise
Temps look to hold steady where they are rest of day folks. Any more rain tonight really going to stick and hardened up. Tomm morning drive into work should not happen unless you like to be skidding around and stuck in your vehicle for hours
What’s up with all the rain in the forecast for next week? Looks mighty wet…
Called a warm front.
C’mon clouds…hang in there another 12 hours….
I filled my tub last night for flushing the toilet, turned off the water at the meter, and then opened all my faucets and bibs. Hardly anything came out but one does slowly drip. I don’t have any other way of getting rid of water in the pipes, is this what smart people do? I have plenty of drinking and cooking and cleaning water on hand if I need for the next few days. Just wondering if there is anything further, aside from switching the fan(s) direction, and opening cabinet doors. Thanks in advance!
Don’t you have a valve where the water pipe rises from the ground before entering the house?
Don’t you have a tap on the water pipe just above the main shut-off valve where it rises from the ground before entering the house? (I wish there was a way to edit a post)
Truth be told, the bigger risk to pipes and infrastructure will be tonight rather than tomorrow night, even though tomorrow will be colder, due to the wind. The ground and structures will still be above freezing and radiate heat, but the winds serve to whisk that heat away and bring colder air where it wouldn’t be absent the winds.