Eric Berger

Summary: With clear skies, there was a strange sight in the sky over Houston on Monday shortly after sunset. We explain what that was. Beyond this briefly unidentified flying object, we’ve got a full week of spring-like weather before warming conditions this weekend and early next week. Rain chances are low throughout the period.

It’s a Bird… It’s a Plane… ?

A little before 8:30 pm CT on Monday evening a bright light appeared in the skies over Houston. It did not streak like a meteor, but rather moved overheard and then appeared to emit a puff of gas before dimming and then fading away. I did not see it myself, but received several questions about it in the immediate aftermath. So was this a UFO?

For a short time it was unidentified. However, I soon pieced together that it was related to a Falcon 9 launch that had taken place from Cape Canaveral, Florida, earlier in the evening. As you may know, the rocket’s first stage launches, and when its fuel is mostly spent, the second stage of the rocket separates. This first stage then makes a controlled descent to the ocean and then lands on a drone ship. So this was not the first stage over Texas, but rather the second stage.

Full video pic.twitter.com/08a2DJLghc

— Adam Cuker (@AdamCuker) March 26, 2024

After separation this upper stage had continued on to orbit and then released its payload of about two dozen Starlink internet satellites. This second stage, however, is not left to zip around orbit indefinitely. Rather it makes a ‘deorbit burn’ to return into Earth’s atmosphere and burn up. In this case, Texans—for it was visible as far away as Austin, as seen above—were seeing this deorbit burn. The remnants of the second stage then splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean several minutes later. This has happened before over Texas, but typically it occurs further south and west of Houston and is not visible here.

Tuesday

The clear skies that allowed Houston to see the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage on Monday night will carry over into today. We’ll see mostly sunny skies and another clear night. Highs today will reach the low 70s, with modest northerly winds of about 10 mph. Temperatures tonight should be a touch cooler than Monday night, dropping down to nearly 50 degrees.

Wednesday

This day will be a bit more interesting, weather-wise. An upper-level disturbance will provide a bit of lift in the atmosphere, and this will allow for the formation of some clouds during the daytime hours. There is even the slight chance, perhaps 10 percent, of a light shower during the late afternoon or early evening. Highs, otherwise, will be in the low 70s. Skies should clear out again overnight, again allowing lows to drop to nearly 50 degrees overnight.

Thursday

A sunny and pleasant day, with highs in the mid-70s. Winds will be light and the air dry, but there will be a subtle shift as winds turn to come from the south. Lows on Thursday night will be warmer, likely in the upper 50s in Houston.

Friday

Another day with mostly sunny skies, probably. Highs will be a bit warmer, in the upper 70s, and a touch more humidity in the air with the modest southerly flow. Winds likely will be a bit more pronounced, at 15 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be warmer, with highs around 80 degrees on Saturday, and the low 80s on Sunday. We’ll also see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with Saturday more likely to have sunshine than Sunday. Also, by Sunday, the air will be fairly humid with dewpoints in the 60s. Still, all of this is relative. Compared to July, this weekend will be quite mild. Both days should see a fairly pronounced southerly wind.

Next week

Monday and possibly Tuesday look rather warm, in the upper 80s, before a front arrives to cool us down some. At this point overall rain chances with the front look fairly low. After the front we should see some days in the 70s and nights in the 50s, maybe.

Eclipse weather

Over at The Eyewall, Matt has a very preliminary look at the cloud cover forecast for the solar eclipse on April 8, across the United States. Short answer: It’s complicated. And we don’t know much yet.

Summary: After a front blows in today, Houston will see mostly sunny conditions this week with a sustained run of lovely spring-like weather. Seriously, it doesn’t get much better than this on the upper Texas coast. Conditions will turn warmer and a bit muggier this weekend.

Goldilocks season

These in-between months in Houston, October and November in the fall, and March and April in the spring, often bring the best weather of the year—if you like mild conditions. With the arrival of a front today, we’re set up for almost a full week of mostly sunny weather, with pleasantly warm days and modestly chilly nights. After some chances today, rain should be non-existent through the weekend.

Knowing what is coming in just a couple of months, please enjoy the great outdoors this week!

Monday

It’s overcast and muggy this morning, with temperatures of about 70 degrees and plenty of humidity. We’ll see some scattered, mostly light showers this morning ahead of a cool front. As this front passes through Houston, likely late morning for areas west of Houston, around noon or 1 pm for downtown, and perhaps 2 or 3 pm for the coast, we are likely to see a broken line of showers with possibly a few thunderstorms. Not everyone will see rain, and those that do are likely to see only a few tenths of an inch as the storms exit quickly to the east.

Highs today will, generally, be in the upper 70s. Drier air will filter in to the area this afternoon, as winds shift to come from the northwest. Winds may be briefly gusty from the west with the front, but should settle down fairly quickly. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-50s in Houston.

Tuesday

Look for sunny skies, highs in the low 70s, with dry air. Winds will be from the north at about 10 mph. Lows on Tuesday night will drop to near 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Wednesday

Another day with highs in the low 70s. We will likely see some clouds mix in, due to a somewhat disturbed atmosphere. But this should not result in any precipitation that reaches the ground, except maybe for a few sprinkles near places like Conroe. But for the most part this will be a partly sunny day. Lows again drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday night.

Thursday

A sunny day, with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Lows on Thursday night drop into the 50s.

Friday

You guessed, it more sunshine! By this point there will should be a weak onshore flow reestablished, so we’ll see a bit of an uptick in atmospheric moisture, but overall humidity still looks fairly low.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warmer, with a continued onshore flow. Look for highs, likely, in the low-80s. Saturday looks partly to mostly sunny, while Sunday probably will see more clouds. By Sunday dewpoints will be in the 60s, so the air will feel a bit more sticky.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday of next week look warmer, in the 80s, before we may see some kind of front move in. That probably will bring our next realistic chance of rain.

If you’re wondering about weather for the upcoming eclipse on April 8, we touched on that in our monthly Q&A post on Friday—the bottom line is that it’s too early to say anything sensible.

Summary: If you live in central or northern Houston, there is a healthy chance of storms tonight after midnight.

Good afternoon, everyone. Just a brief update to say that, as expected, widespread showers and thunderstorms that developed this morning are now winding down. The heaviest rains did, indeed, fall closer to the coast with some locations near Alvin and Santa Fe picking up about 5 inches of rain. These areas are now probably done for today and tonight.

Instead the focus shifts up north, where a line of storms is expected to propagate from west to east, generally along and north of Interstate 10. In terms of timing, this line will probably reach the Bryan-College Station area around midnight or shortly before, push through Montgomery County an hour or two later, and reach Beaumont-Port Arthur by around 3 am give or take.

For the most part these probably will be thunderstorms—hence the invocation of our excitable dogs scale. On a scale of 1 to 10, we’re probably looking at about a 7 tonight in terms of dogs barking and carrying on. There is a risk for some more severe weather, in terms of hail and possibly damaging winds, but the overall atmosphere is not ideal for this to occur in the Houston metro area. For those who live east of Houston, particularly the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, I do think there is a higher chance of severe thunderstorms with this system’s passage.

Our weather quiets down on Friday morning with a weak front and some drier air. Matt will have full details for you in the morning.

Summary: Houston faces a day of unsettled weather, with the threat of heavy rain and hail, before a largely unbroken string of partly to mostly sunny, spring-like days with highs in the 70s. Saturday looks especially nice for outdoor activities.

Thursday

We’re seeing scattered thunderstorms just before sunrise in Houston this morning, and coverage should fill in throughout the morning in response to deepening moisture in the atmosphere. I’d anticipate the strongest storms developing between now and about 2 pm, with the greatest threat along and south of Interstate 10. The primary concerns are heavy rainfall and, within stronger thunderstorms, some hail and potentially damaging winds.

Conditions should clear out some later this afternoon and during the early evening hours. However, a second round of storms will possible around around midnight or shortly after, ahead of a weak front. In contrast to this morning, this line of storms looks fiercest to the north of Interstate 10, and may not bring any additional rain to coastal areas. All told I expect a wide variance in rain accumulations, with most of the area picking up between 1 and 3 inches today. This should not be enough to cause significant flooding, but it may briefly back up some streets.

In terms of temperatures, look for highs today in the upper 60s, with cloudy skies when it is not raining. Winds will, generally, be from the east with strong gusts possible during thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s in Houston.

Friday

In the wake of Thursday’s storms the weather on Friday will be calmer. Look for highs in the mid-70s with partly sunny skies. Winds will be from the northwest at perhaps 15 mph, with higher gusts. This drier air will allow lows on Friday night to drop into the mid-50s for most locations, with slightly warmer conditions near the coast.

Saturday

A lovely day! Look for highs in the upper 70s, sunny skies, and light northerly winds. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 50s in Houston, and lower 60s closer to the coast.

Sunday

As the onshore flow returns with avengeance, we’re going to see some cloud cover building. This should help to limit highs in the mid-70s for most. Another difference from Saturday will be the wind, from the south. Expect sustained winds at 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Next week

Another front, with the possibility of some additional rain and storms, will move into Houston on Monday. At this point the storms don’t look nearly as widespread or strong as what’s happening today, but the forecast could change a bit. This front should set the stage for some lovely spring-like weather next week, with highs generally in the upper 70s, lows in the 50s and 60s, sunny skies and reasonably dry air. Pretty, pretty good.