Good morning. High pressure is starting to build back over the Houston region today, and that will lead to four days when temperatures will likely reach 100 degrees, or higher, for most of the region. Friday looks especially hot, with highs near 105 degrees possible for inland areas. But by this weekend high pressure starts to weaken. Accordingly, next week, our temperatures are going down into the mid-90s, at least, and we’ll start to see some better rain chances.
Daytime highs with “moderate” heat? Is such a thing even possible in Houston? (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
Today will be sunny and hot. Before the high pressure system fully asserts control, we’re going to have a puncher’s chance of rainfall today. I’d say there will be about a 20 percent chance of a brief shower. Otherwise, high temperatures will reach about 100 degrees with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, coming from the southeast later today.
Thursday and Friday
Both of these days are likely to bring highs in the low 100s for much of the metro area, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the west to southwest. If I squint, I can see some scenarios in which there are a few isolated showers on Thursday, but it’s not something I’m holding my breath for.
Friday’s high temperatures don’t look any fun at all. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
As mentioned above, Saturday is likely to be the final day, of four, that could see highs of 100 degrees. Conditions will be mostly sunny and hot. However, by then the high pressure system will be easing westward, opening the door to some chances for scattered showers. Sunday should be a bit cooler, with highs in the mid- to upper 90s, and more scattered showers. Call it a 30 percent chance for each day, subject to modification.
Next week
High temperatures next week should be in the range of the low- to mid-90s. We may also see cooler nights, in the 70s. There’s even the chance of a weak front and some slightly drier air. We should also see daily rain chances in the vicinity of 20 to 40 percent. So all in all, quite a bit of moderation from the summer of hell conditions we experienced for most of June, July, and August.
Tropics
As we discussed at length on Tuesday, the Gulf of Mexico remains largely closed off to tropical activity for now, and likely the next two weeks. However there is a potentially very strong hurricane developing the central Atlantic Ocean, Lee, which is likely to eventually threaten Bermuda and possibly interests along the U.S. East Coast. Matt has all of the details on The Eyewall if you want to read more.
This is a fairly long post that we’ve broken into two parts. First up in a look at what to expect for Texas, for the rest of September, when it comes to hurricane season. The TL;DR there is that things look pretty good, but we’ve still got a few weeks to go. The second part of this post was written by Matt Lanza over at our Atlantic hurricanes site, The Eyewall. It offers a broader look at activity so far in the Atlantic basin, and what that may mean for the rest of the season.
Part I: This is absolutely the heart of hurricane season in Texas
Historically, the majority of significant hurricane strikes on Texas have come in September. Most notoriously, there was the 1900 Galveston hurricane, which made landfall on September 8. More recently there was Hurricane Ike, which made landfall on September 13, 2008. This is the time of year when we see tropical waves forming off the coast of Africa, tracking across the Atlantic Ocean, and moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I never schedule vacations in late August and September for the very reason that this is “go” time for big storms.
Mid-September is often peak-season for Gulf of Mexico tropical systems. (National Hurricane Center)
But as quickly as hurricane season peaks, for Texas it ramps down pretty fast. As I have famously—or infamously, in some quarters—written, the odds of a hurricane strike on the state of Texas really drop precipitously after around September 24. It is too early to say whether that will be the case for this year, but the reality is that we probably have about three or four more weeks of prime time hurricane season in Texas. After that, we should be able to breathe a bit easier.
So what’s on the menu for September 2023?
As per usual, we are seeing large and powerful storms developing in the Atlantic Ocean this year. The good news is that, with the exception of Hurricane Idalia, they have steered away from the Gulf of Mexico. We’ve been heavy on fish storms this year, which is just fine. That’s also likely to be the case with the forthcoming Tropical Storm Lee, which should become a powerful hurricane this week. Read below for more details, but the bottom line is that we expect this one to recurve before nearing the Gulf of Mexico.
The European model ensemble forecast shows virtually no chance of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico through mid-September. (Weather Bell)
Looking out to mid-September, we don’t see any significant threats to the Gulf, or Texas. Not only are there few indications of storms forming or moving into the Gulf, but wind shear levels look high for the next 10 days or even two weeks. This should preclude any significant activity. However, that leaves open a window of opportunity for the last 10 days of September, during which it will be possible for storm activity. The bottom line is that we’re pretty close to the end of the 2023 Texas hurricane season, but we’re not there yet. Given the very warm seas out there, if wind shear drops down, the end of September could be rocking in the Gulf of Mexico.
So we’ll continue watching things for you, and probably post again later next week when we have a bit more insight into the end of the month.
Part II: Taking stock of the 2023 Atlantic season so far
Back in June when we launched The Eyewall, one of the things we did was dive into the components of the seasonal forecast. We explained that the 2023 hurricane season would be trickier than normal, as the developing El Niño, which typically reduces storm activity would be battling an outrageously warm Atlantic Ocean, a feature that would be good for busy storm activity. So far, that battle seems to be exactly what’s playing out. The “consensus” forecast was 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. As of Monday, we sat at 12 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 majors.
Our accumulated cyclone energy for the season, or ACE, sits around 125 percent of normal for the first week of September.
As of yesterday, the Atlantic was running about 125 percent of normal activity, from an ACE standpoint. (Colorado State University)
If the season ended right now, we would be sitting in the upper tier of “below normal” seasons. In other words, we already have one heck of a base and seem to be on our way to an average season. Idalia, Don, and Franklin, the season’s three hurricanes, account for nearly 75 percent of the seasonal ACE to date. So three legitimate storms make up the majority of the total.
Back in June we said that we believed the Caribbean would struggle (it mostly has), the eastern Atlantic would be busy (it’s been more the central Atlantic, so that point is a little fuzzier), and that the most concerning items this season would be systems forming close to home (Idalia counts for that). So thus far, this is going mostly as expected, if not a little bit busier. Kudos to the seasonal forecasters for not just going all-in on El Niño.
Where are we going?
Well, this week we are likely to see another big jump in seasonal ACE when Lee forms.
The likely track of future Lee should go north of the islands but may impact Bermuda. It’s going to be a very strong storm. (Tomer Burg)
From our morning post, you can read how we expect that to become a major hurricane, likely at least a category 4 storm. This will be a big ACE adder, and I suspect we’ll see things shoot up at least into the 70s once Lee is done, pushing us into the “average” tier of seasons if it ended right there. Behind Lee, we may get another storm in the eastern Atlantic, so there’s an opportunity for a few more ACE units.
But here’s something. If you look at the European ensemble model forecast for wind shear in days 11 to 15, which pushes us out to near September 20th now, you can see that the Gulf and western Atlantic are ripping with shear.
Wind shear is forecast to remain well above normal in the Gulf and western Atlantic for mid-month. (Tropical Tidbits)
If that happens as forecast, anything in the Gulf will struggle, as would anything coming out of the Caribbean. However, the lower wind shear in the eastern Atlantic and central Atlantic suggests these would be the areas where storms could continue to form, continuing the legacy of the 2023 season to date. We may see less hostile conditions return to the Gulf and western Atlantic in the final days of September, but that’s obviously a long way off.
What does El Niño tell us?
Quite frankly, if we assume that El Niño is up and humming now and the influence is strengthening, then we should expect to see a lot of what we’ve already seen for the remainder of hurricane season. Here is a map of all hurricanes in Septembers and Octobers since 1950 when the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was 1.0 or greater for June-July-August (this year’s value is 1.1).
Hurricane seasons most similar to this one in terms of El Niño produced a lot of central Atlantic storms in September and October and not a lot of serious land impacts. (NOAA)
With a couple notable exceptions, this map shows a lot of fish storms and middling systems in the western Atlantic. The two most notable exceptions were Joaquin in 2015 which killed 34 people (33 of whom were aboard the El Faro). And also Betsy in 1965, which killed 81 and inundated New Orleans. Emily in 1987 hit Hispaniola and Bermuda. And I think that sums up the season so far: A lot of middling storms and mostly fish storms with one potent hit in Idalia.
All in all, given what we see on the maps right now and given how this season has gone, there are two primary areas that probably should watch for land impacts: Bermuda and the Greater Antilles. If we can relax shear enough late in the season and get a disturbance in the Caribbean that comes straight north, you never know what you can get out of that, and those often threaten Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola or the Bahamas. Bermuda remains in the target line I think for at least one or two more storms. Lastly, the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast may be secondary areas to watch, given the warm waters and potential for just the right things coming together at the wrong time, sort of like what we saw with Idalia and to a far less impactful extent, Harold in Texas earlier this season.
Will it be enough to drive ACE above normal for the season in the end? I’m not certain, but it will be close.
Good morning. After parts of the Houston region received a decent soaking on Labor Day, the region has one more passable chance of rainfall today before the high heat returns through the weekend. And after that? Well, after that I think we’re done with 100-degree temperatures for awhile, and perhaps even for the entirety of 2023, although I’m not ready to stipulate that yet.
Tuesday
The overall setup today, in terms of rainfall, is similar to Monday. There is plenty of moisture and a decent amount of lift to promote showers and thunderstorms. However, a capping inversion should be a little more pronounced today, and that may limit coverage. The bottom line, I think, is that areas along and east of Interstate 45 probably have about a 50 percent chance of rainfall, and areas to the west about 30 percent.
For the most part these will be quickly passing storms, so don’t expect significant accumulations. Temperatures will depend on the extent of rainfall coverage, but generally we can expect highs to reach the upper 90s with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the south. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Wednesday. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
Skies will be sunny, and most of the area will see temperatures of around 100 degrees. Rain chances aren’t going away entirely, but we’re looking at chances probably on the order of 10 to 20 percent. Winds will be light, out of the southeast.
Thursday and Friday
Who is ready for the return of the ridge? The answer, I realize, is almost no one. But high pressure will indeed build back over the are during the end of the week. This will produce highs of around 100 to the low 100s. This won’t quit be the stultifying heat we saw earlier this summer, but it’s still going to be really, really hot.
The heat will probably peak on Friday. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
The heat continues, with highs of around 100 degrees each day. However as the high pressure system eases westward it will introduce some slight rain chances, perhaps 20 percent, each day. Skies, for the most part, should be sunny however.
Next week
Hey Eric, didn’t you mention the “end of the worst summer ever” in the post’s title? Well, yes I did. And it wasn’t clickbait, I promise. The reality is that after the surge of heat to end this week, our pattern should shift to a slightly more moderate one that will feel a bit more like late summer. That is to say, for most of next week, we probably will see highs top out in the mid-90s—or even lower if we see the development of some afternoon showers. Which will be possible. The bottom line is that we’re probably looking at a little bit less sunshine, a little bit less heat, and possibly a little bit more rainfall. It’s not fall, but after this week, I think we can close the door on extreme heat for the summer of 2023. Small victories, right?
Hurricane season
Check back on the site around 10 am for a post on what to expect for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, with a focus on Texas.
Good morning and happy Labor Day. In honor of the holiday, this will be a fairly short post. After slight rain chances on Saturday and Sunday fizzled out, today offers our best hope of meaningful since July. The setup is pretty good, with the combination of ample moisture, daytime heating, and a fair amount of instability in the atmosphere. This is all being driven by an upper-level low pressure system to the north of our region.
An upper-level low pressure system over north Texas and southern Oklahoma will help generate showers today. (Weather Bell)
As of 7:30 am CT, we are already seeing numerous showers just to the east of our region, from Bolivar Peninsula over to Lake Charles, Louisiana. Over the next few hours, these showers should build westward, closer to the Houston area. But that is not a guarantee you will see rainfall. I would say that areas to the east of Interstate 45 have about a 60 percent chance of seeing showers or thunderstorms today, with areas to the west 40 percent or perhaps even less, especially areas further inland.
Rainfall amounts will vary widely. A few lucky locations may pick up 1 inch of rain or more, but for the most part it should be measured in a few tenths of an inch. Of course many locations will not see any rain. Storms that do form, generally, will move from south to north.
Highs today will depend on the extent of rainfall and cloud cover this afternoon. Areas east of Interstate 45 may max out in the lower 90s, whereas areas further west may reach the upper 90s.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday. (Weather Bell)
I expect that Tuesday will be similar, in terms of the setup, although I would expect slightly less storm coverage during the afternoon hours. Wednesday, too, will carry at least a 20 or 30 percent chance of showers.
The period of Thursday through Sunday quite hot again, as high pressure builds over the region. We’ll probably see highs in the upper 90s, with mostly sunny skies. Some areas may very well reach 100 degrees again. I am cautiously optimistic that this period, Thursday through Sunday, may be our last real fling of triple digit weather for 2023. No guarantees, but after that the temperature outlook does start to look a bit better.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a full forecast. Please enjoy your holiday safely, responsibly, and, if you’re lucky, with a measure of liquid gold from the skies.
