Eric Berger

Maybe. The very worst of it is, at least.

But first, let’s recap the story of this summer so far. From mid-June onward, Houston has recorded some of the very hottest temperatures on record, with July ranking as the city second warmest July (behind only July 2022), and this August on pace to be the hottest August in 150 years of records. For example this month, on Thursday and again on Sunday, Houston matched its hottest temperature of all time, 109 degrees. It has been non-stop brutal.

I am not going to sit here and predict that we’re done with 100-degree days. But I do feel reasonably confident that we’re done with the absolutely scorching days of 105-degree plus temperatures that we’ve experienced of late. Houston will now return to a somewhat more “normal” summer in terms of temperatures. Still quite hot, but probably not extremely hot.

Monday

A very weak front has moved down into the region and more or less stalled along the coast, and it should eventually bring some drier air behind it. Skies today will be partly sunny for much of the region, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. There will be a decent chance of showers later today for areas along and south of Interstate 10, perhaps 40 percent, but don’t expect accumulations over more than a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. Chances further inland are probably less than 20 percent.

Tuesday

As the front pushes all the way off the coast, this should help to limit high temperatures in the upper 90s. Skies will be mostly sunny with light northerly winds. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain for coastal areas, and virtually no chance further inland. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the 70s in Houston, with some readings in the upper 60s possible for far inland areas. This is a small promise of what’s to come (hopefully) in a few weeks with the season’s first real front.

Wednesday

This should be the driest day, in terms of low humidity. Still, with clear skies and drier air, we can expect high temperatures near 100 degrees for much of the area. The good news is that evening temperatures will cool off more quickly with the drier air.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll start to see humidity levels coming back up some, but these days still shouldn’t be oppressively humid. Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with sunny skies and no chance of rainfall.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks hot and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Some rain chances will return to the forecast as air moisture levels rise, and we could see the sea breeze spark some activity. For now, call it a 20 percent chance of rainfall each day.

Next week

Next week should bring more of the same weather, with highs most likely in the upper 90s (cannot rule out some 100 degree days) and rain chances on the order of 20 to 30 percent as the sea breeze kicks up. The bottom line, I think, is that extreme summer is going away for a while, to be replaced by a-bit-hotter-than-normal summer. I think that’s OK after what we’ve been through?

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are sizzling right now with a major hurricane in Franklin, and Tropical Storm Idalia. The latter is the bigger concern, as Idalia will menace Florida as potentially a major hurricane later this week. We’ll have full coverage, as usual, on The Eyewall website.

Good afternoon. As expected, it’s an absolute burner out there today. Houston’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport has already reached 108 degrees as of 4 pm CT, which is 1 degree short of the city’s all-time heat record of 109 degrees. (We matched that record high on Thursday, you may recall). It’s now a race between temperatures and approaching rain showers.

In Friday’s forecast we mentioned the possibility of some late afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing on Sunday, associated with a weak boundary. We are now starting to see those showers forming north of the Houston metro area, and they should gradually move southward into the region throughout the evening hours. Areas where precipitation falls will see drops in temperature associated with rain-cooled air.

To set expectations, these showers will be very hit or miss. Lucky locations will pick up a few, quick tenths of an inch of rain, whereas other observers will look longingly as the dark clouds and see little, if any precipitation. At this point it looks like the stronger storms are more likely to develop north of Interstate 10, but areas all the way down to the coast at least have a puncher’s chance of seeing some shower activity.

We are entering a brief period where rain will be possible, essentially this evening through Tuesday morning, before a weak front brings some drier air and shuts the door on rain chances for awhile. We’ll have the full story on the forecast ahead in our post on Monday morning, but just wanted to jump in on a Sunday afternoon with a heads up about the rain chances this evening. Good luck out there!

Good morning. Heat remains the dominant storyline of our forecast for the remainder of August, and conditions look to be especially warm from now through the weekend. However, I’m watching for a chance of showers this afternoon and early evening, and for some potential changes in the forecast next week. Also, we’ll discuss a tropical blob in the Caribbean Sea that’s expected to move into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Thursday

Today is simply going to be blazing hot. Highs will range from near 100 degrees right along the coast to around 105 degrees or higher for inland locations such as Spring, College Station, and Kingwood. Skies will be sunny. With that said, some of our high-resolution modeling is indicating the possibility of an atmospheric disturbance moving southward later today, and this could produce scattered showers from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. I will freely admit that this forecast could be a total bust, especially with high pressure in place. But I think there’s at least some hope for a pleasant surprise with scattered showers this afternoon.

Friday

Another hot day, but temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday. We’ll again see sunny skies, but there’s also the possibility of a few late afternoon showers.

Saturday and Sunday

No changes in terms of temperatures. We’re looking at highs, generally, in the low 100s. Saturday is going to be sunny and hot. Sunday will as well, but at least there appears to be a slight possibility of some rain showers.

Next week

By early next week the dominant high pressure system will be retreating westward, and that at least opens up the possibility of some changes in our forecast. What form, precisely, those will take is yet unclear. At this point I’d guess highs will still be about 100 degrees, but we’ll see some daytime rain chances—whether those are 20 percent or 50 percent, I cannot say. There’s also a slight chance that a weak front pushes down into the region on Tuesday, which could knock humidity levels down a bit. But that is all very tentative. Our weather may also be influenced by a tropical system moving into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropics

For a few days now, the European model has been suggesting that a tropical system will emerge in the Western Caribbean Sea, related to the Central American Gyre, which is basically a broad monsoonal low-pressure system over Central America. Under this scenario a tropical low would then move north, into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Note there is far from universal support for this idea in the global models. In any case, such a system would likely remain away from Texas, and push drier air into our region from the northeast. For more detail on this system, check out our Atlantic hurricane coverage on The Eyewall.

Good morning. Before jumping into the forecast I want to briefly touch on Tuesday’s rainfall, as well as our brief reprieve from extremely hot weather. First, the rainfall. Parts of Galveston and Brazoria counties received a few tenths of an inch of rain from fading Tropical Storm Harold on Tuesday. These were welcome, if brief downpours of tropical rains. The vast majority of the region along and north of Interstate 10, however, received no precipitation whatsoever. The bottom line is that, as expected, our ugly and worsening drought continues. See the end of this post for a discussion of rain chances down the line.

Additionally, the cloudy skies and breezy conditions—the strong easterly winds were part of Harold’s circulation—helped keep a lid on high temperatures. Houston’s Hobby Airport topped out at 97 degrees, and Bush Intercontinental peaked at 97 degrees as well. Both of these locations ended long streaks of days with recordings of 100 degrees or higher. Hobby’s streak was remarkable, 18 days, doubling its previous record of nine days. Hobby has collected meteorological data for nearly a century. Bush IAH ended its streak at 23 days, falling one day short of the city’s all-time record of 24 days, set during the torrid month of August 2011.

Unfortunately, we’re probably going to start new streaks at both locations today. Harold is gone, and extreme heat is back on the menu for a little while longer.

Wednesday

We’re right back to very hot weather today, with area-wide highs of about 100 degrees, high humidity, and mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift to come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. The key difference for the rest of this week is that we are going to see some weak atmospheric disturbances roll through the area. It’s going to be difficult for these to generate significant rainfall, given the sinking air associated with high pressure. However, it will not be impossible, and therefore each day should carry about a 20 percent chance of rain.

Thursday

As high pressure moves almost directly overhead, this should be a very hot day, with highs generally in the low 100s across the area, away from the coast. Afternoon rain chances, again, look to be on the order of 20 percent.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The forecast remains more or less the same, with highs of around 100 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and a puncher’s chance of some rain showers.

Next week

This is where the forecast starts to get a little bit more interesting. The high pressure system that has dominated our weather for much of this summer looks to fade westward, and this should allow for a slight moderation of temperatures. We may also see some better rain chances by Tuesday or so of next week, but that’s far enough into the future I would not want to bet on anything. But I do have some modest hopes, and the end of August is on the horizon.

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