Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston remains on the edge of a high pressure system, so our weather this week will be slightly cooler than the last two weeks, with a puncher’s chance at some afternoon showers with daytime heating. The other factor to consider this week will be the influx of Saharan dust—dust kicked up over the large deserts in Africa and transported across the Atlantic Ocean by the atmospheric flow in the tropics. This dust will moderate temperatures slightly, but may also inhibit rain chances.

The net effect is that conditions will feel a bit more normal this week, and we can see this in the wet globe bulb temperatures we’ve been referencing. (These factor in temperature, clouds, winds, and humidity to provide a better overall sense of heat impacts). Previously this month we’ve see these temperatures reach extreme levels, but this week we should be more comfortably in the 80s. Which, don’t get me wrong, is hot. But not extremely so.

Monday

High temperatures today will likely top out in the mid- to upper-90s for most of the region, with mostly sunny skies. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from early afternoon through early evening, primarily along the sea breeze. Rain chances today are probably in the neighborhood of 30 to 40 percent for areas south of Interstate 10, and 10 to 20 percent for areas for further inland. This pattern of better rain chance chances closer to the Gulf of Mexico is likely to persist for much of this week. Low temperatures will drop into the upper 70s tonight for much of the area, so slightly cooler than much of the rest of the month.

Tuesday through Friday

At this time there really is not much to differentiate the daily forecast for the remainder of this week. We are looking at daily highs, generally, in the upper 90s. Each day, primarily during the afternoon, we’re going to see a daily rain chance on the order of 20 to 30 percent close to the coast, with a lesser chances further inland. Winds will be light, from the south, and nights mostly clear.

The other factor this week is Saharan dust, which according to the latest modeling from NASA’s global modeling office should peak on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday evenings. From time to time, Texas sees dust outbreaks from June through August. This layer of dust about 1 mile above the surface will bring dry air into the mid-levels of the atmosphere this week, and this may inhibit rain chances a bit. As this dust absorbs some sunlight, it should also help keep highs below 100 degrees. And finally, of course, it may lead to some rather vivid sunsets.

Saturday and Sunday

I have some questions about the pattern this weekend, as some modeling indicates a return to a very hot pattern in which high pressure prevails. However there is also a chance that our region stays just beyond this high pressure system. For now, I’m going to broad-brush things and say we’re looking at highs in the upper 90s with only a slight chance of rain.

Next week

Looking beyond the weekend, our weather next week probably will bring more of the same, in terms of mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 90s. At this point rain chances may turn slightly better later next week, but at that point my crystal ball starts to get pretty fuzzy.

Good morning. Houston’s last truly extreme drought came during the torrid summer of 2011. Not only was that summertime period exceptionally hot, the months leading into the warmest time of the year were very dry. During the first six months of 2011, Houston received just 7.88 inches of rain. It was the driest January through June in city history. By the end of June, 2011, the vast majority of Texas was under “exceptional” drought conditions, and that was before the heat hit.

Fortunately, this year, we started summer in a good posture. At the end of May, pretty much the entirety of the eastern half of Texas was drought free after a spring of moderate temperatures and healthy rains. That began to change pretty quickly in June, of course, and July has been the same through its first three weeks; very hot and, for the most part, very dry in terms of rainfall. As a result of this, a “moderate” drought has reemerged for coastal Texas, including Galveston and Brazoria counties, as well as part of southeastern Harris County. In the absence of substantial rainfall, we can expect this drought to worsen in the coming weeks. Any rains this weekend, of course, will help.

Friday

Today will be very hot and sunny, much as the rest of this week has gone. Expect high temperatures of around 100 degrees, very high humidity, and only very light winds from the south. Temperatures on Friday night will, again, only drop down to around 80 degrees.

Saturday

Change is on the way for the weekend, as high pressure shifts westward and opens our region up to precipitation from atmospheric disturbances and the sea breeze. This means our best chance for rain will come during the afternoon hours. For Saturday, I’ll peg rain chances at 30 percent, with the possibility of a few areas seeing decently strong thunderstorms. Rain chances look highest on Saturday north of Interstate 10. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near 100 degrees.

Sunday

This day will probably offer our region its best chance of rainfall for awhile, with perhaps as much as 60 percent of the Houston metro area seeing light to moderate rainfall. Don’t expect a soaking, as briefly heavy thunderstorms will likely be fairly isolated. Most of Houston should only receive a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. When it’s not raining, it should be mostly sunny and hot, with highs at least in the upper 90s. Note that I cannot rule out more widespread, heavier rainfall on Sunday at this point. If the forecast changes, I’ll provide a brief update this weekend.

Next week

Rain chances in the vicinity of 30 percent, daily, will hold on during the early part of next week. We will see a few more clouds next week, and some slightly drier air this should help bring down the heat index just a bit. So while temperatures will still be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, it should feel a little bit less hot during the daytime.

With only a slight reprieve this weekend, very hot summertime temperatures will continue for at least the next week across the Houston region. The big question is one of rain chances this weekend, with Sunday looking like it may offer our best bet to wet our drying soils.

Thursday

Today will be much like the previous days this week, with high temperatures reaching 100 degrees, sultry humidity, and only very light south winds offering scant relief. Outside of the morning hours, skies will be mostly to completely sunny. Overnight lows will be around 80 degrees. You know the drill because most of July has been the same—unending and unrelenting.

Friday

Conditions will be more or less the same on Friday, with a heat advisory necessarily in place.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend we may start to see some modest changes as the high pressure system that has been dominating our weather retreats to the west. High temperatures this weekend will still be in the upper 90s, with some locations still possibly hitting 100 degrees. But in the absence of a suffocating high, we may see a few disturbances rotate through the area, and produce some showers and thunderstorms.

Chances are probably only on the order of about 20 percent on Saturday, but may jump up to 40 or even 50 percent on Sunday. Most of the region is likely to receive on the order of one to three tenths of an inch of rainfall, but a few lucky areas may receive more. The most likely time for any storms to develop is during the afternoon hours, with chances fading during the evening hours.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for highs in the upper 90s, along with some rain chances continuing in the vicinity of 30 percent each day. Some (slight) additional relief will come as a bit of drier air works its way into the atmosphere. The effect of this will be to push wet bulb globe temperatures—a measurement of the overall misery of the heat—below dangerous levels into the middle of next week.

Remainder of next week

Rain chances probably go mostly away later next week as high pressure remains. High temperatures will remain in the vicinity of 100 degrees, but with slightly lower heat indices due to the aforementioned drier air. As for more substantial relief from this stifling pattern, I just don’t see too much on the horizon. It is not for the lack of looking.

Good morning. For the foreseeable future, Houston’s forecast remains one of very hot weather. The only real watch item of note is rain chances this weekend, particularly on Sunday and into Monday. Unfortunately, the models have trended a bit drier so my expectations of a good, solid soaking are not high. Especially if you live west of Interstate 45.

Wednesday

With high pressure solidly in place, we can expect another day of widespread temperatures of about 100 degrees in the Houston region, with sunny skies and high humidity. This will push the heat index high enough that the National Weather Service has called for a “heat advisory” to cover the area. Winds will not provide much relief, being only light, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Nights will continue to be warm and muggy, dropping to only about 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure eases to the west, it will open the window to a bit more troughiness, which is to say a disturbance pushing down into the southern United States this weekend may have some influence on our weather. However, the strength of any disturbances or boundaries pushing into the Houston metro area is suspect, and the influence of these is likely to be felt most keenly on the eastern half of our our region.

All of that is to say that we can expect partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs generally in the upper 90s. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps peaking at 30 to 40 percent on Sunday. Unfortunately, accumulations look slight. Most of the modeling I’ve looked at suggests there is about a 50 percent chance that most of the area sees on the order of one or two tenths of an inch. So really, only a light and fairly inconsequential dusting of rain. There’s always the chance that things will change as we get closer to the weekend, but right now we’re trending away from meaningful relief from the heat and emerging drought.

Next week

Monday and perhaps Tuesday should be another day of temperatures in the upper 90s with modest rain chances. After that, I’m afraid, high pressure will probably begin to assert its control once again.