It’s going to be very, very hot again this week—but here’s why things will eventually change

Good morning. I hope you had a wonderful weekend. While I would love to say that this is the week that Houston’s heat finally breaks, I cannot. We are actually amidst the climatologically warmest part of the year in Houston. From the period of July 29 through August 12, the average high peaks at 96 degrees, and the average low at 76 degrees.

However, after this week, we really will start to slowly slide toward fall. That is largely driven by shorter days and the Sun rising lower in the sky. Houston’s day length is already nearly 40 minutes shorter than it was at the peak of summer, and the Sun lower in the sky. By the end of this month, the day will be an hour and 17 minutes shorter, and instead of the Sun reaching a zenith of 84 degrees at midday, it will max out at 69 degrees. So fall is coming, if slowly.

But not this week. High pressure will more or less hold sway, and there’s not much else to say. Highs will be around 100 degrees each day, and if we consult the wet bulb globe temperature forecast, which factors in humidity, winds, and other variables, we can see that daily heat will reach extreme levels. Sorry, it’s going to be pretty miserable. Please practice heat safety.

Anything of 90 degrees represents extreme heat. (Weather Bell)

Monday

High temperatures today will reach 100 degrees, or above, for pretty much the entire metro area. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances are less than 10 percent, and winds will blow at just 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

Our forecast is the same—bleak, barren, and hot.

Saturday and Sunday

If you were looking for a major pattern change by this weekend, unfortunately, I don’t see it happening. Forecast highs will be on the order of 100 degrees, or hotter for inland areas, with mostly sunny skies.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. Yeah, not great. (Weather Bell)

Next week

But what about next week? Is there hope? Careful readers will recall Matt writing on Friday that the heat may relax a bit by the second half of August. Global models do start to trend temperatures down a bit in seven to nine days from now, but only slightly. Rain chances also look to be on the upswing. However, these trends are far from definitive. I’m hopeful that this will be the last really, really hot week. But I’m not ready to firmly predict that yet.

46 thoughts on “It’s going to be very, very hot again this week—but here’s why things will eventually change”

  1. Random rain shower around Channelview last Saturday afternoon looks like they won the lottery.

  2. Some meteorologists are using the term ‘Texas ridge’ it’s as if this place is allergic to rain.

  4. “We need hope, or else we cannot endure.” — Sarah J. Maas

    In todays semi-daily dose of hope we travel back to the dreaded August of 2011 when the mercury hit a 100 or more on every day but one. After that record breaking heat wave an early season front passed through and on September 6th, and 7th, 2011 the temps plunged to a very pleasant 59 degrees. We are at least 2/3 of the way done with this summer. Stay strong!

  6. It is sad to think of fall and the months of gloom and darkness. If you do plan on dying, and most of us will, eventually, it is more likely to be in the dark months.

      • I agree Tim. I wonder what Jason’s experience is? Seasonal daylight change down here is, from my experience, not much. I lived for 30 years at 61N (Anchorage) and worked for a number of years at 70N (North Slope). As the seasons progress in Anchorage, daylight changes about 6 minutes a day!

    • One of the few positives of Houston’s climate that we’re home to some of the most pleasant temperatures and longest days in the U.S. during the winter months. Maybe your body is just changing.

        • TRUTH…those northern winters greater extremes than I experienced in 30 years in Anchorage.
          Coldest I ever saw there was -20 F.

    • Dang Jason, what you’re experiencing isn’t normal, if Autumn in Houston makes you feel like that then maybe time to see a mental health professional?

      • It hits me as well but I dont really feel it until January. The worst month of the year to me. Starts fading in Feb by the end.

    • It hits me in February. If we have a week or more of clouds with no Sun, I get depressed. But before you know it, it’s Spring! Which is usually pretty lovely here.

    • Au contraire; from my observation, generally the lower the angle of the Sun the shorter the time period of the high temperature of the day. For example, in my neck of the woods, the forecasted high will last about 3 hours long today. Maybe in 7 days from now, the high may last 2 3/4 of a hour long per day, and so on.

      • Understood. It will still be hot AF, maybe just a few minutes less, if this high remains parked overhead.

  8. I know it’s kind of dumb to say, since it happens every year, but the days are getting shorter…back to using a flashlight while walking the dog at 6 a.m. Counting on shorter days to slow the heat is kind of a sad state of affairs, but that’s what it is. I told someone Sunday “hey, only 75 days left in summer!”

  9. I am super concerned about the heat at a show outdoors in the Woodlands the first weekend in September. Maybe a few degrees cooler? 🙁

    • Planning anything outdoors in Houston before mid-October is pretty crazy. Even late October can be somewhat miserable. Early September is typically brutal and the only possible relief from heat will be a major hurricane – which would turn an outdoor event from miserable to highly dangerous.

  10. Intercontinental Airport’s all time record high was 109, last reached August 27, 2011. This August, IAH has set or tied daily record high temperatures for the past 3 days: August 4 (102), August 5 (103), and yesterday (102). Today’s record high is 104.

  11. The hysteria in the media over the fact of it being summer is astounding. Summer happens every year, with some years being average, some cooler than average, and some warmer than average. I think we should be glad we are in the second half of summer and heading toward fall, and that luxuries like air-conditioning and working indoors are the norm.

    Be not troubled – summer is a natural thing.

    Thanks to Eric for talking about the astronomical aspects of seasonality. I had done some calculations on this myself over the past week. The days are getting shorter at about 1:25 per day right now, which does add up day by day. As Earth’s axial tilt changes day by day during the planet’s orbit of the Sun, we do see the decrease in the inclination of the Sun’s path across the sky. The significance is that lower sunlight inclination means that a lower density of sunlight falls on a given area of the surface, and less heating. Together with the shortening of the days, this reduces daytime heating as the season progresses, and makes evenings and nights more enjoyable.

    • While mostly correct in everything else, earth’s axial tilt, or obliquity, doesn’t change, remaining nearly constant at about 23.5 degrees.

    • Ive been here on earth for a very long time and have experienced many summers and no these past three summers have not been normally hot. It has been hell. Ive never experienced nights this warm in Houston for so long.

  13. This summer has FELT exceptionally hot but going off temps we’ve had hotter for sure. For me, the worst part is just the lack of breeze. Certainly makes me rethink living here but October- May is generally very nice. With some nice days in September sprinkled in.

    • even just by temps, we’re still in the top 5. June was 6th hottest, July was 2nd hottest. August has a lot of time left but we are on pace with 2011 so far. 1980 and 1954 have been left in the dust. 2011, 2009, and 2022 are the hottest 3 summers on record. we’ll see where 2023 ends up but it’s not looking pretty.

  14. Temps are only half the problem, I think high humidity keeps the temps down but the heat load is actually higher!

    • The heat capacity of water is ~4 x the heat capacity of air. Hence dry air heats and cools faster than humid air with the same heat (sunlight) input.

  15. Um, nice, but I remember it’s stayed will into the 90s through October around here before. Not to mention those nice, muggy mid 80s Christmas Days.

  16. Once this heat dome bursts, and all that hot moist air rushes in from the gulf, how bad do you think the storms are gonna be?

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