Eric Berger

Good morning. Alas we’re seeing an atmospheric disturbance slowly move northward through the region this morning, and it is driving a band a strong thunderstorms throughout the central part of the metro area. Given the ongoing abundance of low pressure and atmospheric moisture, we’re going to see one more day with conditions favorable for heavy rainfall today.

Most of the region is likely to pick up and additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall today, so we’re not concerned about significant flooding for most of the area. But we will see some areas with higher totals, and there definitely will be the potential for streets to briefly back up beneath strong and slow-moving thunderstorms. For this reason we are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert through the afternoon hours in Houston. We expect the disturbance to continue moving north, and eventually pull away from the area this evening. Due to the clouds and persistent rainfall, high temperatures today likely will top out at about 80 degrees.

Rain chances will hang around after today, but they’re going to go down starting Monday, and the threat of heavy rainfall will drop accordingly. We should start to see the return of a fair amount of sunshine by Tuesday or Wednesday, with slightly drier air from a weak front.

Good morning. As anticipated, a line of strong storms has developed to the west of Houston this morning, roughly from College Station all the way south to Corpus Christi. We expect these storms to continue to build slowly to the east, and into Houston later this morning and the afternoon hours. There remains a lot of uncertainty about how much punch these storms will have as they progress closer to, and into the Houston metro area. But we now have enough concerns about the potential for heavy rain to issue a Stage 1 flood alert out of concern for street flooding today and tonight.

The most problematic time for rainfall will be from the mid-morning hours today through the afternoon. However, at this time we can’t rule out the additional development of showers tonight, and on Sunday, as a series of disturbances plow through our moist atmosphere. Please check the radar before heading out, and if you have outdoor activities on the schedule for this weekend, have a back-up plan. And since it’s Mothers Day weekend, I know many of you do have plans.

Overall, I expect most of the region to see 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall this weekend, but areas west and southwest of Houston have a greater risk of heavy rainfall, and isolated areas may see 2 to 6 inches of rainfall. Due to the aforementioned uncertainty about this weekend’s weather, Matt and I will continue to keep an eye on things. We apologize to all the moms out there for the lousy weather this weekend.

Phew—after two days of warily watching the radar, we can take a break. Rain chances today and Friday will fall back into the 10 or 20 percent range, and we may even briefly see some sunshine during the afternoons. However, as an upper-level low pressure system evolves over Central and West Texas this weekend, it will create conditions favorable for rain there.

This means two things for our side of the state. First of all, areas west of Interstate 45 will see reasonably high rain chances in the range of 50 or 70 percent on both weekend days. And secondly, if your Mothers Day Weekend plans call for travel into the Hill Country, conditions look incredibly wet, with 4 to 8 inches of rainfall along the I-35 corridor and to the west of Austin and San Antonio. This is bound to lead to flooding and other issues this weekend there.

Thursday

Skies are cloudy this morning, but we should see some partial clearing this afternoon, and that should allow high temperatures to push up into the upper-80s. Winds will be light, out of the south. And the rain? Well, chances are about 10 percent that we see some very light showers. The air will be sticky, and lows tonight will only drop into the mid- to upper-70s. So yeah, pretty muggy.

Friday

Friday will be rather similar to Thursday, albeit with slightly stronger southerly winds, gusting up to perhaps 20 mph. Friday night will be warm again, as temperatures may drop into the mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Both days will see highs in the mid-80s. Saturday is probably mostly cloudy, but Sunday may live up to its name with a little more sunshine. The question, as usual, is rainfall chances. Both days have about a 50 percent chance, and the further west of Houston you live, the greater overall chances there will be. Much of Houston probably will see less than one-half inch across both days, but areas such as Katy or College Station are at risk for 1 inch or more.

Next week

Monday should be a touch warmer, in the upper 80s, before a front arrives Monday night. You should set your expectations accordingly, and by that I mean that this front is going to bring some (very slightly) drier air to the region, but won’t modify temperatures too much. Highs for most of next week look to be in the mid- to upper-80s, with partly sunny skies, and lows in the low 70s. Rain chances remain, but overall they don’t look too high, or bring too much of the wet stuff to us.

A slowly-moving low pressure system is bringing a band of heavy rainfall into the Houston region this morning. As of 5:30 am CT the main line of storms remains southwest of the city, from Sealy to Needville to Lake Jackson. The heaviest of these showers and thunderstorms will slowly progress into the Houston area this over the next few hours, affecting the morning commute, before clearing out during the late morning hours. Based on current radar trends, the highest rain accumulations are likely to be along, and south of Interstate 10.

These storms will bring widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of rain, with the potential for 5 inches or more in isolated areas. This will flood at least some low-lying streets, with the potential for flash flooding where rainfall is heaviest this morning. For this reason we are maintaining a Stage 2 flood alert for our area until the early afternoon hours. After that time we are highly confident the threat will end. Please take care when you are out and about this morning.

Wednesday

As rains wind down later this morning, and into the afternoon hours, clouds will remain omnipresent. This should help to limit high temperatures this afternoon to about 80 degrees, which certainly will be the region’s coolest day for awhile. Rain chances tonight will drop to near zero, with a low in the low-70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of similarly warm and humid days, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s, and the possibility for a bit of sunshine during the afternoon hours. Winds will generally be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph. While we cannot rule out precipitation, overall rain chances are only about 20 percent, and accumulations will be slight.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend, I’m afraid, won’t bring much sunshine. Instead we’ll see continued high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s with muggy air, and mostly cloudy skies. The trickier question is rainfall. At this time, due to the expected location of an atmospheric disturbance over central Texas, there looks to be a sharp east-west gradient in rainfall. Therefore we could see a situation where areas roughly east of Interstate 45 see perhaps only a tenth of an inch of rain, or two, and areas near and west of Katy see upwards of 1 inch. In terms of timing, the best chances of rainfall will come from the period of Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Next week

A fairly weak front is going to work its way into Houston next week. It may be accompanied by some showers on Monday, and then some slightly drier air on Tuesday. Don’t have high expectations for this, but with dewpoints likely dropping back into the 60s it should feel a little bit less muggy outside. Highs should be in the mid-80s, with lows in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. We may see some sunshine, but rain chances won’t go away entirely.