Eric Berger

After an outbreak of warmer and humid weather Houston will descend back into winter for a few days as a cold front barrels into Houston this morning. As expected, the front has produced only a thin, broken line of showers as it swept through. Any lingering rain will soon end as much drier air moves in. We’ll be cold through Saturday night before a warm-up on Sunday.

Thursday

The story of today will be winds, especially for coastal counties including Galveston, where northerly winds will blow at about 20 mph, with sustained gusts up to 35 or possibly even 40 mph near the water. Temperatures start at 70 degrees, and will be in the low 50s by this afternoon, with cloudy skies. Lows tonight will drop into the mid- to-upper 30s in Houston, with a light freeze possible for far, outlying areas

Friday

Expect a mostly sunny day, with highs only in the low 50s. Winds will continue to blow out of the north, with gusts possible up to 25 or even 30 mph. These winds will finally slacken overnight Friday, with temperatures again dropping into the mid- to upper-30s for the metro area.

Saturday

After a cold start, Saturday will see highs in the mid-50s with a mix of sunshine and clouds. As winds start to turn more easterly and then southeasterly, nighttime temperatures will be a tad warmer, in the mid-40s in Houston, and colder for outlying areas.

Sunday

As the onshore flow ramps back up, we’ll see a warmer day with some clouds and a bit of sunshine. Expect highs in the low 70s, probably. Sunday night’s lows will struggle to fall below 60 degrees.

Presidents Day

We’re going back to 80 degrees, most likely, on Monday. Skies will probably be partly to mostly cloudy, but the good news for kids staying home from school is that rain chances still look low, to non-existent.

Next week

I still don’t have great details about what happens next week, but I do expect warmer weather to last for awhile. We’ll be warm through the mid-week, with perhaps a slight chance of showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that it is possible that a fairly weak front will make it through, but it would probably only push daytime highs down into the low 70s. If you’re into colder air enjoy the next three days as that may be it for awhile.

Here’s the short answer up front: Probably. Barring some kind of an unexpected, freakishly cold front coming through in the next few weeks, we’re done.

Now, for a longer answer. Crazier things have happened. Houston’s latest ever recorded freeze came on April 10, 1973. However, the odds are against this. For areas south of Interstate 10, we are already past the “average” date of the region’s last freeze, and we’re fast approaching that date for areas along and north of Interstate 10. For areas further inland, such as Conroe, the typical date of the last freeze comes in late February.

After a front moves through early tomorrow, we are going to see a couple of days of colder weather. Some far inland areas, including Conroe, have a chance of seeing a light freeze on Friday and Saturday mornings. But after that? We look to be near or above normal, in terms of temperatures, for the rest of February. So I would be surprised if it froze again. For areas along and south of Interstate 10, I’d put the chance of another freeze this season at 10 percent or less. For the northern half of the metro area, it is probably about 25 percent, or less.

Wednesday

Patchy to dense fog is present this morning as winds are light, and dewpoints and temperatures nearly match in the upper 60s. As temperatures warm this morning, the fog will dissipate, and leave us with cloudy skies. A very few, scattered showers will be possible later this morning and during the afternoon hours, with highs reaching about 80 degrees. Tonight will be sticky warm until the front comes through.

Thursday

Speaking of said front, a broken line of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will herald its arrival. They’ll pass quickly. Generally, we can expect the front to reach western portions of the region, such as Katy, around 3 to 5 am on Thursday, downtown from 5 to 7 am, and the coast from 7 to 9 am. Showers will end quickly with the front’s passage, but clouds will remain. Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s in the morning, and perhaps the 50s during the afternoon, as brisk northerly winds gust to 30 mph or so and bring in colder, drier air. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the upper 30s for much of Houston.

Friday

A sunny, and chilly day, with highs in the mid-50s. Winds will still be around, but backing off into the 10 to 15 mph range, with higher gusts. Lows Friday night will again drop into the upper 30s, with a light freeze possible for far inland areas.

Saturday

One more cool day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s. As winds start to turn more southerly, temperatures will be warmer, in the 40s, overnight.

Sunday

Expect mostly sunny, and fine weather with highs around 70 degrees or a tick above.

Next week

Washington’s Birthday should see warmer conditions, with partly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees. Some sort of front is going to try and make it through by mid-week, but I’m not 100 percent confident that will happen. A smattering of rain chances pop up around the same time, but they’re not particularly impressive looking.

Good morning. The first of two cold fronts will arrive in Houston today. This first front will be short-lived, and provide only minimal cooling, before a quick warm-up. However, a second front on Wednesday night will drive temperatures back down to the 30s for a few days. The weekend looks pleasant, and suitable for outdoor activities.

Tuesday

There’s a fair amount going on with today’s weather. We have a few light rain showers developing this morning, as they feed upon a decently moist atmosphere. Winds are also rather blowy, out of the south at 15 mph and gusting to 30 mph or higher at times. A chance of showers, mostly light but perhaps with a few thunderstorms thrown in, will linger through much of the morning before the front moves into the area. Rather than providing a cool down, as skies clear with the frontal passage, highs will bump up to around 80 degrees. Depending on how far you live from the coast, lows tonight will either fall into the low 50s or upper 50s.

Wednesday

The aforementioned front is not going far. It should make it all the way to the Texas coast before stalling and pulling back north on Wednesday morning. This will be noticeable in dewpoints if you step outside. By around midnight on Tuesday, they’ll probably be in the 30s in the urban core of Houston, which is really pretty dry. Eight to 10 hours later, on Wednesday morning, they’ll probably have rebounded into the low 60s. By Wednesday afternoon they’ll be pushing 70 degrees which, along with an air temperature in the mid 70s, will feel pretty sticky. Beneath mostly cloudy skies a few scattered, light showers will be possible on Wednesday as the atmosphere moistens back up. Lows Wednesday night won’t drop much below the upper 60s in most of the region.

Thursday

A second, and stronger front will move through the area early on Thursday, likely reaching downtown Houston before sunrise and pushing off the coast between 7 and 9 am CT. Some scattered showers will be possible between midnight and Thursday morning along with the front, but again these will be mostly light, and inconsequential. Winds will be gusty, out of the north, on Thursday, perhaps up to 30 mph. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid-50s, with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s except for the immediate coast. Most of Houston will remain above freezing, however.

Friday

Expect a sunny, chilly day with highs in the mid-50s. A few clouds return Friday night, when lows should be similar to Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will be cooler, with highs of around 60 degrees and partly sunny skies. Temperatures will moderate some on Saturday night, only dropping into the mid-40s. This onshore flow will introduce some clouds on Sunday, but we should also see a bit of sunshine as highs reach about 70 degrees. Rain chances are near nil for the weekend, so plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. I’m not seeing much of a signal for rain. Some kind of front may arrive by Thursday or Friday, but overall details are lacking at this point, as one might expect.

This week’s weather could be titled, “A Tale of Two Fronts.” The first will be rather weak and inconsequential—except for some rather blustery wind—and the second will bring in substantially colder air. While I don’t think a freeze is in the cards for the Houston metro area later this week, I’m not entirely ready to rule it out. Along the way we may also see a smattering of rainfall.

Monday

After a chilly weekend, warmer weather is on the way. Southerly winds today along with partly to mostly sunny skies will help raise temperatures into the low 70s. Look for winds out of the south at 5 to 10 mph, becoming stronger tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. As clouds blanket the region later this afternoon and onward, overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be sort of a weird day with an oddball front. Winds are going to be really strong, mainly from the south, early Tuesday ahead of the front. We could see gusts of up to 35 or even 40 mph. Some scattered showers are possible as the front moves through during the morning hours. While a thunderstorm or two is possible, for the most part I think we’re looking a brief, short-lived showers with the front. After it moves through we’ll see clearing skies, and because this air mass is not all that cold, temperatures likely will actually go up with the sunshine and moderately drier air. Accordingly, much of the region will probably see highs near 80 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-50s Tuesday night, with warmer conditions near the coast.

Wednesday

Tuesday’s front will wash out rather quickly, replaced by a southerly flow. This means Wednesday will be warm and mostly cloudy, with highs again around 80 degrees for most of the area. Winds should be fairly pronounced, out of the south. The week’s second, and much stronger, cold front should arrive on Wednesday night. This will bring another smattering of rain chances, and an influx of drier air by Thursday morning.

Thursday

Thursday looks breezy and colder, with highs perhaps of around 60 degrees to go along with mostly cloudy skies. Any rains should end during the morning hours. As skies clear out some Thursday night, look for lows to drop into the upper 30s in the Houston metro area.

Friday and Saturday

These look like a pair of partly sunny and cooler days, with highs in the 50s. Friday night should drop into the 30s again, with Saturday night a few degrees warmer.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should see the resumption of a warmer, southerly flow. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances are not entirely zero, but they’re pretty low despite the return of Gulf moisture.

Next week

The crystal ball starts to get cloudy by this point, but we should see a few warmer days to start next week before some sort of front moves into the area. Some showers will probably return to the area early next week as well, but I’m not seeing anything to write home about.