Eric Berger

Houston’s warm and mostly humid—but largely rain-free—weather will continue through the weekend. As a matter of fact, highs may really pop up on Sunday ahead of front that will send us back toward more March-like weather.

Tuesday

With high pressure in place, and a warm southerly flow, today will be fairly warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. Only coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s. Winds will be light, and generally from the south or southeast.

If you’re heading to the rodeo, you can expect mild conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s before the show, falling to the low- or mid-70s with moderate southerly winds afterwards. Skies will be mostly cloudy this evening, and we can expect overnight lows to only briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days will bring more of the same, which is to say highs in the mid-80s, partly sunny skies, and warm nights. Daytime winds will become a bit greater each day, perhaps gusting to 15 to 20 mph out of the south by Thursday afternoon.

Friday

A weak front will slowly drift down into Houston on Friday morning, but there is some question about how far it will progress. At this point, I think it has a decent chance of reaching the coast, in which case we will see some slightly drier air. (There looks to be little likelihood of rain with said front). In any case, Inland areas may only see highs in the 70s on Friday, with the coast being a little warmer. Low temperatures on Friday night may drop into the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

To be clear, the weekend forecast remains in flux. But what I think will happen is that the area may see some lingering dry-ish air from the front, but the onshore flow will be pushing back into the area. Accordingly we should see high temperatures in the ballpark of 80 degrees with a fair amount of sunshine. In terms of warmth, Sunday could be fairly hot. This is because we’re going to see a more westerly flow, and this probably will make temperatures pop up into the upper 80s.

Next week

Some sort of stronger front will arrive by early next week, likely on Monday. This should set the stage for a few days in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s, or thereabouts. In other words, it should feel a little bit more like March, rather than late April or May. Rain chances may start to perk up toward the end of next week, which would be a welcome development for our drying grounds. I’ll have more on that tomorrow.

Good morning. I sure hope you were able to enjoy some time out of doors this weekend. Sure, some people may quibble that the temperature was a tad warm on Sunday, or note that tree pollen levels are rather high. But in terms of two sunny days, with dry air and moderate temperatures, you’re not going to beat the weather we just experienced in Houston. This past weekend sits high on my list of finest weekend weather of the year for 2023.

As for what’s ahead, well, the forecast is pretty vanilla. While we had been expecting a fairly strong front to push into the region toward the end of this week, it now looks like the colder air associated with this system will largely get shunted off to the east of Houston. The bottom line is that our weather will be moderate for awhile.

Monday

As a warmer, southerly flow returns to the area, we’re seeing some scattered fog this morning as dewpoints and temperatures are the same. Skies will become partly sunny later today, with high temperatures reaching about 80 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the south or southeast.

Conditions for the rodeo this evening will be mild, with temperatures in the mid-70s, light winds, and somewhat humid air. There really are no concerns if you’re heading to the show. Clouds build again tonight with lows only dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

These will more or less be the same day in terms of weather. We’re looking at high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Each day should see slightly progressively stronger southerly winds, with gusts of up to 20 mph possible by Thursday or so. Low temperatures will be around 70 degrees, with cloudy nights. Fog will be possible each morning.

Friday

Last week we expected a front to move all the way through Houston by Friday, bringing in substantially colder air. Well, I’m sorry to disappoint those of you who like cold weather, but it’s not happening. Such is the peril of forecasting the weather more than a week out. Rather the front is going to move toward our region and stall out somewhere along or north of Interstate 10, most likely. That means the region will see a decent chance of showers on Friday, as this boundary stalls out. Accumulations look low at this point, but the precipitation forecast remains fuzzy. Anyway, inland areas may see highs in the 70s on Friday, while areas closer to the coast remain in the low 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is up in the air, so to speak. It’s possible that a slightly drier air mass moves into the region, and if so I would ballpark high temperatures in the mid-70s, with partly sunny skies, and mild nights with lows around 60 degrees. But we could just as easily remain fairly warm and humid. Put me solidly in the to-be-determined camp.

Next week

It does appear as though some sort of front will make it through about one week from today, and that will usher in cooler and drier conditions for most of Spring Break in Houston. How cool? I’m hesitant to say, but I’d guess we’ll see nights in the 40s or 50s.

Good morning. We’re experiencing yet another muggy and warm morning across the region, but rest assured this will be the last one until early next week. This evening, we will need to watch for the possibility of storms affecting Houston as a cold front moves into our region, but at this point our concern-o-meter is not registering too high. But do be wary of the possibility of some strong thunderstorms after dark. Also, this post will also address some questions we’ve been receiving about the potential for a decent cold snap in the middle of March.

Thursday

Highs today will reach the low 80s, beneath mostly cloudy skies. Perhaps the most notable feature today will be fairly strong southerly winds, gusting to about 30 mph. We may see a few scattered, light showers during the daytime, but a capping inversion should prevent any significant rainfall during the day time. The question is, what happens when the front nears?

We’ll find out tonight. The front should reach western areas of Houston, including Katy, around 8 to 10 pm, the downtown area between 9 pm and 11 pm, and push off the coast by midnight or shortly thereafter, Most of the region falls under a “slight” chance of severe weather, which includes the possibility of strong thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. My expectations are that most of this severe weather will pass to the north of the Houston metro area, but we can’t rule out thunderstorms or other inclement weather as the front sweeps through.

If you’re out and about this evening, such as attending the rodeo, it is important to keep weather aware after the show is over. This will be a fast moving front. The worst of the storms should pass in 15 to 30 minutes. So if there are storms moving through, do not try running to your car or “making” it. Stay under cover, and the system will pass quickly. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

This will be a sunny and breezy day, with highs of around 70 degrees. Gusts will be out of the north at about 20 mph. Lows on Friday night should drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny and pleasant, with highs in the upper 70s both days, and lows Saturday night in the 50s, and Sunday night in the 60s. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Houston will be warm and partly cloudy next week through about Wednesday. But after that? Some sort of front is in the cards by around Thursday or so. The models have been flopping around a fair bit, but we do seem headed toward much cooler weather by next weekend. This is because the overall air mass over the Central United States will be turning colder at this time, and we’ll have to see how much of this colder air works its way south into the Houston region. For now, I’d bet this means lows in the 40s, but that remains to be seen. If you’re worried about a freeze, it put the chances of this happening in Houston at 10 percent or less.

Good morning. It’s rather warm outside for early March, with temperatures in the low 70s across much of the metro area with 90 percent humidity. Normal lows are about 20 degrees colder. We’ll have two more warm days before a front moves into the region late Thursday evening. This will bring a chance of storms, and then set the stage for a fine, sunny weekend.

Wednesday

The record high temperature for Houston, on March 1, is 84 degrees set back in 2017. I think we have a healthy chance of besting that as highs perk up into the mid-80s today with sticky dewpoints. Temperatures will be boosted by partly to mostly sunny skies, and a south wind at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts.

If you’re scooting your boots over to the rodeo this evening to see Brooks & Dunn, temperatures before the show will be about 80 degrees, with increasing clouds. Winds will be southerly, at about 10 mph. Post-show temperatures will be mild, in the low 70s. So really, there are no issues to worry about. Low temperatures tonight will only bottom out at 70 degrees.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly cloudy on Thursday, and this probably will limit high temperatures to the low 80s. Based on our latest guidance I don’t have any real concerns about weather during the daytime. We can’t entirely rule out a few scattered showers, but it should be nothing significant. However by around sunset, the cold front should be close to the far western edge of the Houston metro area, and push into the downtown area by around 9 pm to midnight, and be off the coast a couple of hours later.

So what will happen as the front passes? My sense is that, for most us, probably not too much beyond some light to moderate rain. The potential for severe weather will be greatest well to the north of our region. Areas such as Dallas, Longview, and Texarkana are at a significantly higher risk for severe weather, such as strong thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds, and potentially tornadoes. Closer to Houston, those risks will be tempered by a capping inversion and less favorable dynamics for storms.

The bottom line is that on Thursday evening we’ll need to watch for thunderstorms in Houston, especially for areas north of Interstate 10, as well as other severe storm threats. This is not something I’m overly concerned about, but the potential is there. Most of the region should also see some measurable rainfall, perhaps one to two tenths of an inch. So flooding is not a concern. Lows will drop into the 50s on Thursday night following the front’s passage.

Friday

Look for sunny and breezy weather, with highs in the mid- to upper 60s. Friday night will be the coldest of the week, likely dropping into the 40s for the region.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see continued mostly sunny skies. Both days now look to have high temperatures in the upper 70s. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 50 degrees, but Sunday night will be warmer as the southerly flow reestablishes itself.

Next week

Most of next week should be warmer, with highs in the 80s, before some sort of front arrives by Thursday or Friday. Days look to be partly cloudy, and nights fairly humid. Rain chances look low, for the most part, until the front’s arrival.